政策底已现，市场底将至，但你的选择比时机更重要。随着2025年翻篇，计划在2026年上车的购房者， 内心恐怕是七上八下。楼市消息满天飞，有人说要触底反弹，有人说还得继续跌，到底该信谁？ 别急，结合近期中央定调和权威机构数据来看，2026年的楼市剧本已经清晰：它不会回到过去那种"闭 眼买都赚"的普涨时代，而是进入一个"学霸房"与"学渣房"冰火两重天的"分化之年"。 一、政策风向标：从"救市"到"养市"，工具箱大升级 2026年是"十五五"的开局之年，政策的决心和玩法都变了。 • 目标变了：从"止跌"到"稳定"。 去年政策的核心是"推动止跌"，好比给病人做急救；今年的新提法 是"着力稳定"，意味着病人已出ICU，进入精心调养的康复期。政策托底的决心非常强，大跌的风险被 牢牢按住。 二、市场温度计：整体趋稳，但你的城市可能"拖后腿" 几乎所有专家都同意，2026年楼市最大的特征就是——分化。 1. 整体温度：寒意减弱，但还没到春天。 新房销量和房地产投资的跌幅会收窄，市场正走在"成交量先 企稳→房价再企稳→投资最后回暖"的康复道路上。2026年，正处于第一步到第二步的关键阶段。 2. 核心矛盾：库存压顶，城市间差距 ...

Core Points - The new policy aims to promote a stable and healthy development of the real estate market in Foshan, introducing 12 measures focusing on land supply, project commencement and completion, and public housing loan conditions [1][5] Land Supply Adjustments - The policy emphasizes fine-tuning land supply by increasing the recovery and reallocation of idle land, allowing for adjustments in planning and usage based on urban development needs [3] - A dual strategy is implemented to control and support the transformation of commercial land use, with restrictions on new commercial land supply while allowing for the conversion of existing undeveloped commercial land for other uses [3] Public Housing Loan Conditions - The new regulations relax public housing loan conditions, allowing for a lower down payment of 15% for certain types of affordable housing, compared to the 20% minimum for commercial housing [2] - Foreign nationals and employees with housing contributions from other regions can also apply for public housing loans under specific conditions [2] Taxation and Housing Transactions - The policy optimizes the calculation of housing transaction tax, with a new standard based on the housing count in the district where the property is located, rather than the previous broader district approach [2] - Tax rates are set at 1% for properties under 140 square meters, 1.5% for first homes over that size, and 2% for second homes, with a flat 3% for third homes regardless of size [2] Project Construction and Approval - The new measures provide detailed adjustments to project construction and approval processes, allowing for flexible timelines based on project size and enabling phased acceptance of construction projects [4] - The policy also allows for the optimization of property service fees based on quality and price alignment [4] Market Response and Trends - Following the implementation of the new policy, the Foshan real estate market is expected to gain momentum, with recent data indicating a significant increase in transaction volumes and prices [4][5] - The market has shown resilience, with year-to-date figures indicating stability in second-hand housing transactions and a slight decline in new housing sales compared to the previous year [4]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen second-hand housing market is primarily driven by "rigid demand" as indicated by recent data showing a 1.4% week-on-week increase in transactions, with a total of 1,472 units sold [1] - The demand side continues to rise, with new demand increasing by 8.5% week-on-week, while the supply side also shows a slight recovery with a 2.1% increase in new listings [1] - The market remains focused on affordable housing, with the majority of transactions concentrated in the 60 to 90 square meter range, reflecting a strong preference for "rigid demand" properties [1] Market Characteristics - In the first half of the year, the Shenzhen second-hand housing market exhibited a trend where lower-priced properties accounted for a higher proportion of transactions compared to listings, particularly for properties priced below 2 million yuan [2] - The proportion of transactions for properties priced between 2 million and 3 million yuan also exceeded their listing proportion by 4.4% [2] - The ongoing policy adjustments, including lower down payments and interest rates, have significantly influenced the market, favoring pure rigid demand [2] Demand Dynamics - The shift in housing supply and demand dynamics indicates a transition from price-driven expectations to a focus on living attributes, with rigid and improved demand becoming more prominent [2] - The resilience of rigid demand is expected to support the overall stability of the real estate market, as evidenced by the year-on-year growth in both new and second-hand housing transactions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The wealth gap between those who buy homes and those who do not is expected to widen significantly over the next five years due to urbanization and housing policy adjustments [1] Policy Insights - The government is not discouraging home purchases but is instead providing "precise support" for good housing options, with over 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for key housing projects [2] - Financial policies are being optimized to reduce repayment pressure, including dynamic adjustments to mortgage rates and the elimination of distinctions between ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties [2] City Selection - The focus should be on cities where population is flowing, particularly core cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, as well as areas with strong urbanization potential [4] - First-tier cities have a new housing inventory turnover period of about 13 months, while third and fourth-tier cities face much longer periods, indicating higher risks of price declines [4] Timing Strategies - Timing is crucial for home purchases, with a new housing inventory turnover period of 12-18 months being ideal for stable prices [5] - Key signals to watch include the central bank's LPR rate adjustments and local government housing subsidies, which indicate favorable buying conditions [5] Asset Allocation - Real estate should constitute 50%-70% of total family assets to balance risk and opportunity, with a focus on quality properties in well-supported locations [6] - It is advised to maintain a manageable mortgage payment relative to monthly income and to avoid excessive leverage [6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Shenzhen is experiencing a significant recovery due to policy adjustments that have relaxed purchase restrictions, leading to increased transaction volumes in both new and second-hand housing markets [6][11]. Group 1: Sales Performance of Real Estate Companies - In the first nine months of 2025, the top three real estate companies in Shenzhen by sales were Hongrongyuan (16.65 billion), China Merchants Shekou (11.43 billion), and Shenye Group (8.12 billion) [5]. - The sales thresholds for the top real estate companies were set at 7.51 billion for the top five, 4.95 billion for the top ten, and 3.00 billion for the top twenty [5]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The Shenzhen government has implemented a series of measures to optimize real estate policies, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions in non-core areas and the introduction of differentiated management for corporate purchases [6][7]. - Non-resident families can now purchase up to two homes in specified areas without needing to provide proof of one year of social insurance or tax payments [7]. - The new policy also standardizes loan interest rates, eliminating the distinction between first and second home loans [7]. Group 3: Market Performance - In September 2025, the transaction volume for new residential properties in Shenzhen reached approximately 3,087 units, marking a 43.5% increase month-on-month and a 32.7% increase year-on-year [11]. - The second-hand housing market also saw a rise, with 4,546 units transacted, reflecting an 8.9% month-on-month increase and a 42.5% year-on-year increase [11]. - The inventory of pre-sold residential properties stood at 32,085 units by the end of September, with a depleting cycle of around 10 months based on the average monthly sales over the past year [9][11].

Core Insights - The recent housing market policies aim to alleviate the burdens of homebuyers by relaxing qualification requirements and reducing costs, addressing high entry barriers and financial burdens in the market [3][4][5] Policy Overview - The October policies include a "four cancellations" approach: cancellation of purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, price limits, and differentiation between ordinary and non-ordinary residential standards, with major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou leading the way [3] - Cost reductions include an average interest rate cut of 0.5 percentage points on existing home loans, potentially saving 1.5 billion residents over 150 billion yuan in interest annually, with specific examples showing significant monthly savings for borrowers [3][4] Supply and Financial Security - The government plans to add 1 million urban village renovation units, with over 60% of compensation provided in cash, which is expected to help absorb existing housing stock [4] - The credit scale for "white list" projects has been expanded to 4 trillion yuan, with 2.23 trillion yuan already approved, ensuring stable funding for qualified projects and reducing the risk of unfinished developments [4] Buyer Strategies - First-time buyers should focus on areas with favorable policies and infrastructure, such as regions outside major city limits, while ensuring to apply for loan adjustments before the end of October [5] - Upgrading homeowners are encouraged to sell their old properties quickly due to the cancellation of sales restrictions, while investors should concentrate on core assets in major urban areas to ensure stable rental returns [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai has announced new real estate policies that optimize the property tax pilot program for personal housing, allowing eligible individuals to temporarily avoid property tax payments [1][2]. Group 1: Property Tax Policy Adjustments - The new policy allows individuals holding a Shanghai residence permit and working in the city, including high-level talents and urgently needed professionals, to temporarily avoid property tax on their first home purchase [4][5]. - For those purchasing a second home, property tax will be exempted if the average per capita housing area does not exceed 60 square meters, with tax applied only to the area exceeding this limit [4][5]. - Individuals who have held a residence permit for less than three years will initially pay property tax, but can apply for a refund once they meet the three-year requirement [5][11]. Group 2: Housing Purchase Regulations - The policy allows families to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the outer ring road, while limiting purchases to two homes within the inner ring for local residents and single adults [7]. - Non-local residents can also purchase homes outside the outer ring without limits, provided they have paid social insurance or income tax in Shanghai for at least one year [7]. Group 3: Housing Fund and Loan Policies - The new regulations increase the maximum loan amount for housing provident funds, with first-time buyers eligible for higher loan limits based on property type and family size [8][9]. - The policy supports the withdrawal of housing provident funds for down payments, allowing individuals to extract funds without affecting their loan limits [9]. - The interest rate pricing mechanism for commercial housing loans will be optimized, removing distinctions between first and second home loans to ease the financial burden on residents [10].

Core Insights - Shenzhen's real estate market has responded positively and swiftly to the new policy, with significant increases in both second-hand and new home transaction volumes during the first weekend after implementation [1][3]. Group 1: Second-hand Market Performance - During the first weekend post-policy, the signing volume at Beike's partner stores for second-hand homes increased by 33% compared to August and by 60% compared to July [3]. - The policy has encouraged previously hesitant buyers to make purchasing decisions, leading to a rapid increase in transaction volumes [3]. - The viewing volume for second-hand homes at Le You Jia's stores rose by 12%, with the highest increase in the Luohu district at 43% [4]. Group 2: New Home Market Activity - New home purchases at Beike's partner stores saw a 40% increase compared to the average for the weekend in August and a 50% increase compared to July [3]. - The rise in new home market activity is attributed to both policy stimulation and developers increasing their sales efforts and promotional strategies [3]. Group 3: Regional Transaction Data - Luohu and Bao'an districts emerged as the main transaction areas following the new policy, with Luohu's second-hand home signing volume doubling (100% increase) compared to the previous weekend, and Bao'an showing a 69% increase [3]. - Luohu's appeal is driven by its established commercial infrastructure and quality educational resources, while Bao'an attracts younger buyers due to its industrial concentration and transportation convenience [3]. Group 4: Market Confidence and Demand - The new policy effectively addresses market demand by relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing credit, thereby lowering entry barriers for new citizens and young buyers [4]. - The restoration of market confidence has led to a concentrated release of existing demand, resulting in a balanced supply and demand situation [4]. - The ongoing effects of the policy are expected to maintain a phase of active engagement in Shenzhen's real estate market [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant rise in the stock prices of Chinese real estate companies following the announcement of new housing policies in Shenzhen, which are more lenient compared to previous policies in Beijing and Shanghai [1] - Country Garden (碧桂园) saw a stock increase of 10.42%, trading at HKD 0.53, while other companies like CIFI Holdings (旭辉控股) and Vanke (万科企业) also experienced notable gains [1] - The new policy in Shenzhen, effective from September 5, includes a substantial relaxation of purchase restrictions in non-core areas and eliminates the differentiation in mortgage rates between first and second homes [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, the new housing policy in Shenzhen is expected to stimulate demand for multiple home purchases in peripheral areas, indicating a broader trend among major cities to enhance real estate market activity [1] - The adjustments in Shenzhen's housing policies are seen as more extensive than those implemented in Beijing and Shanghai in August, suggesting a proactive approach to revitalize the real estate market [1] - Overall improvement in real estate sales performance is anticipated, contingent upon the effective implementation of policies related to inventory housing acquisition and urban village renovations, which could enhance supply-demand dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have adjusted housing market policies since August, primarily by relaxing purchase restrictions for local residents and non-residents, aiming to stabilize the housing market and attract more buyers [1][2][3] Policy Adjustments - Shenzhen has significantly narrowed the scope of purchase restrictions, allowing local residents to buy unlimited properties in non-restricted areas and easing conditions for non-residents who have paid social insurance or taxes for over a year [1][2] - The new policy in Shenzhen also removes restrictions on single individuals, allowing them to purchase properties under the same conditions as families, which marks a historic relaxation of previous rules [1][2] Market Conditions - The housing market in Shenzhen has faced a prolonged decline, with prices dropping approximately 40%-50% from peak levels over the past four years, and a recent 0.9% decrease noted in July [2][3] - The city has not ranked among the top 20 in land sales this year, indicating a significant drop in land supply and investment compared to other major cities [2] Economic Implications - The policy changes are expected to attract more external buyers, enhancing population concentration and economic stability in Shenzhen, which is crucial for the city's role in the Greater Bay Area [3] - The adjustments aim to stabilize the core cities' housing markets, which are vital for the overall economic cycle and resource exchange within urban areas [3]