中国市场：25Q4实现包裹量58.9亿件，日均6400万件，符合预期；10月以来中国快递行业包裹量增速有 所放缓，10月增速下降至双位数以下，行业向高质量发展方向转变。 浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，维持极兔速递-W(01519)"买入"评级，考虑公司在东南亚市场继续保 持竞争优势，随着件量增长，新市场规模优势显现以及中国市场持续拓展与各电商平台的合作。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 25Q4公司总体实现包裹量84.6亿件，同比增长14.5%，日均包裹量9200万件 东南亚市场：25Q4极兔实现包裹量24.4亿件，同比增73.6%，日均件量2650万件，同比+73.6%，公司在 东南亚业务量表现持续强劲，主要由于电商传统旺季及东南亚整体线上渗透率持续提升，极兔凭借稳健 的业务策略不断提升竞争有优势，当地行业份额持续向龙头集中。 新市场(包括沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、墨西哥、巴西及埃及)：25Q4极兔继续维持了自上个季度以来的强劲 增速，2025年第四季度实现包裹量破亿，达1.3亿件，同比升79.7%，日均包裹量145万件，同比 +79.7%。主要由于公司积极把握电商增长红利拓展与TikTok、Mercado Lib ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in overall package volume in 2025, reaching 30.13 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 22.2% [2] - The Southeast Asian market showed strong performance with a package volume of 7.66 billion in 2025, up 67.8% year-on-year, capturing a market share of 32.8% [2] - New markets, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Mexico, Brazil, and Egypt, also demonstrated significant growth, with a package volume of 400 million in 2025, a 43.6% increase year-on-year [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Package Volume - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a total package volume of 8.46 billion, a 14.5% increase year-on-year, with an average daily volume of 92 million packages [1] - The total package volume for 2025 was 30.13 billion, with an average daily volume of 82.5 million packages, reflecting a 22.6% year-on-year growth [2] Southeast Asia Market - In Q4 2025, the company recorded a package volume of 2.44 billion in Southeast Asia, a remarkable 73.6% increase year-on-year, with an average daily volume of 26.5 million packages [1] - The company maintained its leading market share in Southeast Asia for six consecutive years, with a 5.4 percentage point increase from the previous year [2] New Markets - The new markets achieved a package volume of 130 million in Q4 2025, a 79.7% increase year-on-year, with an average daily volume of 1.45 million packages [1] - The company is actively expanding its presence in new markets, leveraging partnerships with e-commerce platforms like TikTok and Mercado Libre [1] Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to be $400 million, $710 million, and $990 million, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 33.1x, 18.8x, and 13.5x [10] - Revenue is expected to grow from $10.26 billion in 2024 to $17.39 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 16% [12]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 07 日 旺季行业均价环比回升，通达系价格持续修复 快递行业 2025 年 11 月数据跟踪 周期/交通运输 本月关注： 行业有序竞争、格局逐步优化及业绩增长驱动的估值修复机会。 ❑ 快递行业核心数据：1）业务量同比增速放缓，2025 年 11 月，全国快递业务 量完成 180.6 亿件，同比增长 5.0%，同比增幅较上月下降 2.9pct；2）单票价格 同比跌幅收窄，单票收入为 7.62 元，同比下降 8.3%，同比降幅较上月扩大 5.3pct， 环比上升 1.9%；3）收入，快递业务收入完成 1376.5 亿元，同比增长 3.7%，同 比增幅较上月下降 1.0pct。 ❑ 消费数据：1-11 月社零总额累计实现 45.61 万亿元，同比增长 4.0%，其中 11 月社零总额实现 4.4 万亿元，同比增长 1.3%；1-11 月实物商品网上零售额累计 实现 11.8 万亿元，同比增长 5.7%，根据推算，其中 11 月实物商品网上零售额 实现 1.42 万亿元，同比增长 1.5%；对应 1-11 月累计电商渗透率达 25.9%，同比 提升 0.4pct ...

以下为研究报告摘要： 中银证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：航运方面，原油运价高位下跌，远洋航线运价互有涨跌。航空方 面，全球首款6吨级倾转旋翼飞行器完成首次试飞，南方航空接入千问打造"天盾"大模型。物流与交通 新业态方面，海南自由贸易港全岛封关启动，2025年前11个月国内快递业务量同比增长14.9%。 7.64%。⑤公路铁路：12月8日—12月14日，全国高速公路货车通行5434.5万辆，环比下降2%。⑥交通 新业态：2025年Q3，联想PC电脑出货量达1940万台，同比上升17.30%，市场份额环比上升0.4pct。 投资建议： 建议关注设备与制造业工业品出口链条。推荐中远海特、招商轮船、华贸物流，建议关注东航物流、中 国外运。 建议关注雅鲁藏布江下游水电站建设带动的交通运输需求增加主题机会。建议关注四川成渝、重庆港、 富临运业。 关注低空经济赛道趋势性投资机遇。建议关注中信海直。 航运方面，原油运价高位下跌，远洋航线运价互有涨跌。航空方面，全球首款6吨级倾转旋翼飞行器完 成首次试飞，南方航空接入千问打造"天盾"大模型。物流与交通新业态方面，海南自由贸易港全岛封关 启动，2025年前11个月国内快递业务量同 ...

Core Insights - The shipping industry is experiencing fluctuations in oil freight rates, with the China Import Crude Oil Index (CTFI) rising by 9.5% to 2231.96 points as of November 13 [3] - VLCC market activity is slowing down as the end of November cargoes approaches, with a general optimism about future rates despite a temporary pause in geopolitical premiums [3] - The air transport sector sees significant developments, including Volant Air's completion of a multi-hundred million yuan Series B financing and the debut of China's C919 aircraft at the Dubai Airshow [2][3] - The logistics sector is witnessing record-breaking parcel volumes during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with Jitu Express reporting over 100 million parcels on November 11, a 9% year-on-year increase [2][3] Shipping Industry - Oil freight rates have shown a pattern of decline followed by an increase, with the CTFI reflecting a recent upward trend [3] - The European shipping market remains stable, with spot market rates increasing due to solid supply-demand fundamentals [3] - In contrast, the US shipping market is facing a lack of growth momentum, leading to a decline in booking prices for routes to the West and East coasts [3] Air Transport - Volant Air has successfully raised several hundred million yuan in Series B funding, with participation from various investors [2][3] - The C919 aircraft made its first appearance in the Middle East at the Dubai Airshow, marking a significant milestone for Chinese aviation [2][3] Logistics and Express Delivery - Jitu Express reported a record-breaking parcel volume during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with a daily average of 94.59 million parcels from November 1 to 12, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth [2][3] - National postal services recorded a total of 13.938 billion parcels collected from October 21 to November 11, with a peak daily volume of 777 million parcels [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on the industrial goods export chain, recommending stocks such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - There is an emphasis on investment opportunities related to the construction of hydropower stations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, with recommendations for Sichuan Chengyu, Chongqing Port, and Fulinyunyi [5] - The low-altitude economy is highlighted as a trend for investment, with a recommendation for CITIC Offshore Helicopter [6] - The road and rail sectors are also noted for investment opportunities, with specific companies recommended [7] - The express delivery sector is advised for investment, with recommendations for SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains an outperform rating for Jitu Express (01519), projecting earnings of $319 million and $470 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 37x and 25x. The target price remains at HKD 11.1, indicating a 9% upside from the current price [1]. Group 1: Southeast Asia Market - Jitu Express is expected to maintain its leading market share in Southeast Asia, benefiting from the growth of social e-commerce and the optimization of the express delivery landscape in 2025 [2]. - The company’s market share in Southeast Asia increased by 5.4 percentage points to 32.8%, while competitors saw declines in their market shares [2]. - The trend of free shipping in Southeast Asia's e-commerce is anticipated to further stimulate online shopping habits, allowing Jitu Express to leverage its scale for cost advantages [2]. Group 2: New Markets - The logistics industry in Latin America is still in its early stages, with Jitu Express positioned to benefit from increasing e-commerce penetration [3]. - The GMV of TikTok Shop in Brazil has seen significant growth, indicating a rising demand for logistics services in the region [3]. - Jitu Express is expected to maintain high growth in shipment volumes as it serves both Chinese e-commerce platforms and local Latin American platforms [3]. Group 3: China Market - In the short to medium term, the company faces challenges due to price wars, but there may be relief in the second half of the year as the industry observes cost optimization progress [3].

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express-W (01519) shares rose over 4%, reaching HKD 10, with a trading volume of HKD 797.416 million, following the release of its Q3 2025 operational data [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - For Q3 2025, J&T Express reported a total parcel volume of approximately 7.68 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.1% [1] - All major markets experienced double-digit growth, with Southeast Asia and new markets showing particularly strong performance [1] Group 2: Market Growth - In the Southeast Asian market, J&T Express achieved a parcel volume of 2 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 78.7% [1] - The new markets contributed a parcel volume of 104 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.9% [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Western Securities expressed optimism regarding the growth of parcel volumes driven by the booming e-commerce platforms in Southeast Asia and new markets [1] - The "anti-involution" policy environment in the Chinese market is expected to improve the company's revenue and profit [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a parcel volume of 468 million pieces in Q3 2025, representing a 31.8% increase year-on-year and a total year-on-year increase of 25.6% for the first nine months [2][3] - The gross market in Southeast Asia and China saw significant growth, with South Asia experiencing a year-on-year increase of 78.7% for the first nine months, totaling 586 million pieces [2][3] - In China, the parcel volume reached 5.85 billion pieces in Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 47% [3][4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The e-commerce platform customers have increased their investments, driving rapid growth in business volume through promotional activities [3] - Non-platform shipments are also growing, contributing to order volume, although they account for less than 10% of total shipments [3] - The company achieved a year-on-year increase of 67% in new markets, with 270 billion pieces of parcels processed [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The South Asian market has shown strong growth, with a 63% increase in parcel volume [2] - Brazil has seen strong growth due to new customer entries, while Mexico faces challenges due to increased tariffs [4][10] - The overall industrial growth in China has slowed down, with a 12% decrease noted in August and September [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a growth guidance of 40% in new markets, with Brazil performing particularly well [10] - The strategy includes focusing on high-quality customers and optimizing operational efficiency in emerging markets [25][44] - The company is positioning itself to take advantage of the consolidation in the express delivery market as competitors withdraw [3][19] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about maintaining growth momentum in South Asia, expecting Q4 growth to exceed initial guidance [7][8] - The company is cautious about profitability in the second half of the year due to industry price increases and cost pressures [11][42] - The management views the China market as a training ground for operational efficiency and talent recruitment, aiming for sustainable growth [25][44] Other Important Information - The company does not disclose quarterly financial figures, maintaining guidance provided in August [5] - The logistics index has improved, enhancing the brand image among high-quality customers [4] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth trend in South Asia and profitability expectations - Management expects growth in South Asia to continue exceeding guidance, with a competitive market dynamic making precise predictions challenging [7][8] Question: Impact of price increases in China - Price increases have led to a slowdown in parcel volume growth, particularly affecting low-margin customers, while high-end customers remain less sensitive to price changes [34][42] Question: Future potential in South Asia and emerging markets - Management is confident in maintaining growth momentum in South Asia, with ongoing investments in operational capabilities [36][38] Question: Strategy adjustments in China - The company plans to focus on high-quality customers and improve profitability, viewing the current market as a learning opportunity [25][44]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities research report suggests that the e-commerce and express delivery sectors are recommended due to the combination of anti-involution and the upcoming peak season [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - August is traditionally a slow season for e-commerce and express delivery, but the anti-involution trend has boosted industry prosperity [1] - The certainty of price increases continuing until the end of the year is high, which is expected to enhance the profitability elasticity of the sector [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The gradual implementation of social security and the standardized development of the industry are likely to elevate the valuation center in the medium to long term [1]

Group 1: Express Delivery Volume Rankings - Guangzhou ranks first in express delivery processing volume with 1.303 billion pieces from January to July 2025, followed by Jinhua with 1.198 billion pieces and Shenzhen with 720 million pieces [1][4][5] - The new metric of express delivery processing volume includes both express business volume and delivery volume, providing a more comprehensive view of a city's express delivery activity [2] Group 2: Express Delivery Revenue Rankings - Shanghai leads the country in express delivery revenue with 151.02 billion yuan, followed by Guangzhou at 54.36 billion yuan and Shenzhen at 36.17 billion yuan [8][11] - The top ten cities in express delivery revenue include four from Guangdong: Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Jieyang [10] Group 3: Factors Contributing to Rankings - Jinhua and Jieyang, despite being smaller cities, excel in express delivery due to their developed e-commerce sectors and efficient logistics networks [7] - Guangzhou's success in express delivery volume is attributed to its vast supply chain, numerous online stores, and strong logistics infrastructure, making it a critical hub for express delivery [16][17][18]