Market Strategy - The market experienced a "first decline then rise" trend in March, with a "slow bull" pattern expected to continue into April, indicating a stable market environment despite geopolitical tensions [2][6] - The adjustment in the market provides upward space, and the structural factors will determine excess returns, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities during dips [2][6] Sector Strategy - The transition towards manufacturing is underway, with new energy leading the manufacturing market, highlighting the importance of energy independence amid geopolitical conflicts [3][4] - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is expected to see valuation recovery due to the increasing emphasis on energy autonomy, with public fund holdings in the sector remaining low at 1.16% as of June 30, 2025, compared to 5.69% in mid-2022, indicating significant room for growth [4][6] Thematic Strategy - The defense and aerospace sectors are accelerating core segment advancements, with a focus on the domestic large aircraft industry, which is expected to scale up production significantly [5][6] - The global aviation manufacturing sector is facing capacity constraints due to core bottlenecks, with the aircraft shortage anticipated to persist for the next 5 to 8 years, emphasizing the importance of domestic production capabilities [5][6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the defense and aerospace sector, particularly with the recent developments in China's commercial aviation market and the increasing demand for gas turbines [5][15][16]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) supplier conference indicates a new phase of large aircraft entering mass production, with the C919 aircraft expanding its operational routes significantly [5][15]. - The gas turbine market has seen a dramatic price increase, with unit costs rising from approximately $2,000 to $3,000 per kilowatt, reflecting a nearly 50% increase driven by supply chain pressures [5][16]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several key investment themes based on the "S-curve" cycle evolution, focusing on supply chain reforms, military exports, and emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and AI [5][17]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Aviation Power and Control, which are positioned to benefit from high-end aviation equipment production and maintenance needs [5][24][25]. - Zhonghang Xifei and Zhonghang Heavy Machinery, which are major players in military and civil aircraft manufacturing [5][26][27]. - Guangwei Composite Materials, recognized as a core supplier in the aerospace carbon fiber market, with multiple growth avenues in new materials and applications [5][28]. Group 3: Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed financial analysis of key companies, including projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and 2026, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [7]. - For instance, Aviation Power is expected to have a dynamic PE of approximately 24X in 2025, reflecting strong growth potential in the aviation supply chain [5][27]. Group 4: Market Trends - The defense sector is experiencing a shift towards modernization and increased demand for advanced technologies, with a focus on integrating AI and quantum computing into military applications [5][17][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities and the ongoing trend of localization in the semiconductor industry, which is expected to drive growth in the coming years [5][20].

Core Viewpoint - China Eastern Airlines has signed a significant purchase agreement with Airbus for 101 A320NEO series aircraft, totaling approximately $15.802 billion (about 108.9 billion RMB), with deliveries scheduled between 2028 and 2032 [2][3]. Group 1: Aircraft Purchase Details - The purchase includes various models such as A320NEO, A321NEO, and A321XLR, with the total catalog price being approximately $15.802 billion [3]. - In 2022, China Eastern Airlines purchased 100 A320NEO aircraft for a catalog price of approximately 85.778 billion RMB, with deliveries expected from 2024 to 2027 [4]. - Additionally, in 2023, the company ordered 100 C919 aircraft from COMAC for a catalog price of approximately 71.1 billion RMB, with deliveries planned from 2024 to 2031 [4]. Group 2: Fleet and Operational Strategy - The total number of aircraft purchased across three transactions amounts to 301, with a combined catalog price of approximately 265.8 billion RMB [5]. - As of February 2026, China Eastern Airlines operates 823 aircraft, of which only 376 are owned, representing about 46% of the fleet, while the remaining 54% are leased [6][7]. - The company aims to optimize its fleet structure and enhance passenger experience, thereby improving market competitiveness [2][4]. Group 3: Financial and Strategic Considerations - Funding for the aircraft purchases will come from a mix of self-owned funds, raised capital, bank loans, and other financing tools [5]. - The company is focusing on building a hub system centered around Shanghai, supporting its strategy to expand into international and emerging markets [4]. - China Eastern Airlines has a robust route network, reaching 1,000 destinations across 160 countries and regions [7].

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性 和完整性承担法律责任。 2026年2月，中国南方航空股份有限公司及所属子公司（以 下简称"本集团"）客运运力投入（按可利用座公里计）同比上 升14.39%，其中国内、地区和国际分别同比上升11.49%、13.24% 和22.73%；旅客周转量（按收入客公里计）同比上升13.82%，其 中国内、地区和国际分别同比上升10.68%、22.35%和23.03%； 客座率为86.31%，同比下降0.44个百分点，其中国内同比下降0.64 个百分点，地区和国际分别同比上升6.05和0.21个百分点。 货运方面，2026年2月，货运运力投入（按可利用吨公里— 货邮运计）同比上升13.18%；货邮周转量（按收入吨公里—货邮 运计）同比上升12.56%；货邮载运率为47.02%，同比下降0.26个 百分点。 2026年2月，本集团新增主要航线情况如下：广州-呼和浩特 1 证券代码：600029 证券简称：南方航空 公告编号：临 2026-012 中国南方航空股份有限公司 2026 年 2 月主要运营数据公告 -赤峰- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as AVIC Optoelectronics, Guotai Group, Beihua Co., National Science Military Industry, Aerospace Electric, and a "Hold" rating for Shangda Co. and Aero Engine Corporation [3][8]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a transition from scale expansion to "high-quality advancement" in equipment construction, focusing on the integration of development and security [1][11]. - The military modernization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to shift from quantity to quality, with significant structural opportunities emerging in new domains, unmanned intelligence, advanced weaponry, and low-cost equipment [2][11]. - The plan highlights the cultivation of emerging industries, particularly in low-altitude economy, aerospace, and marine economy, forming a comprehensive industrial layout [12]. Summary by Sections Key Companies - Recommended companies include AVIC Optoelectronics (002179 CH), Guotai Group (603977 CH), Beihua Co. (002246 CH), National Science Military Industry (688543 CH), Aerospace Electric (002025 CH), Shangda Co. (301522 CH), and Aero Engine Corporation (600893 CH) [3][8]. Industry Trends - The report indicates a notable increase in defense spending, with a projected budget of 1.94 trillion yuan for 2026, reflecting a 6.9% increase from the previous year [15]. - The military industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for advanced military equipment and modernization efforts [11][15]. Market Performance - The report notes that the defense and military industry index has underperformed, with a decline of 6.64% in the past week, ranking last among 31 primary industries [22]. - The current PE (TTM) for the defense and military sector is 90.65 times, with specific segments like aerospace equipment and military electronics showing varying valuations [26][30]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates significant growth in the demand for new military products and markets, particularly in unmanned systems and advanced weaponry, aligning with the strategic goals outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][12]. - The focus on high-quality development and modernization is expected to create a favorable environment for investment in the military sector [11][12].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of unmanned and intelligent combat capabilities, improving military system efficiency, and promoting the standardization of military-civilian integration as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][13] - The new quality forces are expected to accelerate during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant developments anticipated in large aircraft, low-altitude economy, satellite internet, and nuclear fusion [5][14] - The report identifies investment opportunities across various sectors, including supply chain reforms, military trade, and emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and AI [5][15] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Insights - The 14th Five-Year Plan highlights the need for modernization in defense and military, focusing on the development of new combat forces and improving resource efficiency [13] - It stresses the importance of integrating new quality production forces with combat capabilities to enhance national strategic systems [13] 2. Industry Trends - The report notes that the defense industry is poised for growth, particularly in areas like large aircraft production and low-altitude economic development [14] - It mentions the importance of commercial aerospace and the need for advancements in satellite internet and quantum technology as future growth points [14] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are positioned well within the "S-curve" of industry evolution, particularly those involved in supply chain reforms and intelligent automation [15] - It highlights specific companies to watch, including those in military trade, large aircraft, and emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing [15] 4. Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial metrics for key companies in the defense sector, including expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and 2026 [6] - Companies such as航材股份, 铂力特, and 紫光国微 are highlighted for their growth potential and strategic positioning within the industry [6] 5. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting the importance of technological advancements and market positioning for companies like 航发动力 and 中航重机 [23][27] - It emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing market demands and leverage their technological capabilities to maintain competitive advantages [25][26]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" framework remains largely intact, with a focus on five key areas: economic development, innovation-driven growth, social welfare, security, and green low-carbon initiatives. The details have been optimized to address current development challenges and social needs [1][2] - The new plan introduces a clearer policy direction, emphasizing the dual control of carbon emissions and energy structure transformation, shifting from energy consumption control to direct carbon emission management [3][2] - The plan expands the number of specialized columns from 20 to 23, focusing on strategic tasks and core capability enhancement rather than just project implementation [1][2] Investment Opportunities - New infrastructure construction focuses on five areas: integrated computing networks, satellite internet, information communication networks, data infrastructure, and low-altitude infrastructure. Key requirements include building a new generation of supercomputing facilities and enhancing satellite internet applications [1][2][10] - The new industry and new track development section identifies ten key areas for technological breakthroughs, including integrated circuits, embodied intelligence, biomanufacturing, new batteries, commercial aerospace, domestic large aircraft, low-altitude equipment, green hydrogen, brain-computer interfaces, and high-end medical devices [1][2][6] Traditional Infrastructure - The traditional infrastructure section retains its focus on transportation, energy, and water networks, with specific policy adjustments such as the renaming of the transportation section to "National Comprehensive Transportation Network Construction" and the energy section to "New Energy System" [1][2][7] Economic Reforms - The plan introduces multiple reforms in the socialist market economy, private economy, state-owned enterprises, and finance, aiming to enhance market vitality and innovation. This includes a focus on market-oriented pricing mechanisms and support for private enterprises to lead major technological breakthroughs [2][3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The recent government work report has elevated the status of the aviation industry to that of a "new emerging pillar industry," indicating a significant shift in national focus and importance towards aviation [8] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for scaling up production and developing a series of aircraft models, which is expected to accelerate the growth of the large aircraft industry [8] - Key areas of focus include enhancing the production capacity of the C919 aircraft and advancing the development of core systems such as the Changjiang 1000A engine and onboard equipment [8] Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that the domestic large aircraft and core system construction are likely to accelerate, with a positive outlook on aviation engines and onboard equipment core subsystems [3] - Recommended investment targets include: - AVIC Engine (航发动力, 600893, Not Rated) - AVIC Onboard Equipment (中航机载, 600372, Buy) - Jianghang Equipment (江航装备, 688586, Not Rated) - AVIC Control (航发控制, 000738, Not Rated) - AVIC Technology (航发科技, 600391, Not Rated) - Huaqin Technology (华秦科技, 688281, Buy) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aviation industry, highlighting strong demand and supply dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the high passenger load factor and price elasticity observed during the Spring Festival travel period, indicating a robust recovery in the aviation sector [7][11]. - It notes that the domestic aviation market is experiencing a structural improvement in demand, driven by increased personal travel and a recovery in international travel [33][34]. - The report identifies key investment opportunities within the domestic aircraft manufacturing chain, particularly focusing on the development of indigenous large aircraft and commercial engines [53]. Summary by Sections Aviation Transportation - The Spring Festival saw a record high in cross-regional passenger flow, with a total of 6.72 billion trips, averaging 258 million trips per day, a 5.9% increase from the previous year [11][12]. - Domestic passenger volume increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while average ticket prices rose by 4.3% during the same period [12][13]. - The report highlights two key trends for the 2026 Spring Festival: a surge in secondary travel and concentrated return trips, reflecting a shift in travel patterns [14][15]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines [37]. Aviation Manufacturing - The report discusses the ongoing capacity ramp-up by major manufacturers Boeing and Airbus, with a combined backlog of over 15,000 aircraft orders [2][76]. - Boeing plans to increase its 737 production from 42 to 52 units per month by 2026, while Airbus aims to reach a production rate of 70-75 A320 aircraft per month by the end of 2027 [82]. - GE Aviation reported a significant increase in engine deliveries, with 2,386 commercial engines delivered in 2025, including 1,802 LEAP engines, reflecting a 28% year-on-year growth [93][100]. - The report recommends focusing on key suppliers within the commercial aircraft engine supply chain, including Aero Engine Corporation of China and other core component manufacturers [53][56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the aviation industry, highlighting strong demand and supply dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the high passenger load factor and price elasticity observed during the Spring Festival travel period, indicating a robust recovery in air travel demand [7][11]. - It notes that the domestic aviation market is experiencing a structural improvement in demand, driven by increased private travel and a resurgence in international travel [33][34]. - The report identifies significant growth opportunities within the domestic large aircraft manufacturing sector, particularly for companies involved in the production of commercial aircraft and engines [53]. Summary by Sections Aviation Transportation - The Spring Festival saw a record high in cross-regional passenger flow, with a total of 6.72 billion trips, averaging 258 million trips per day, a 5.9% increase from the previous year [11][12]. - Domestic passenger volume increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while the average ticket price rose by 4.3% during the same period [12][13]. - The report highlights two key trends for the 2026 Spring Festival: a surge in secondary travel and concentrated return trips, reflecting a shift in travel patterns [14][15]. - Investment recommendations include major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high load factors and price elasticity [37]. Aviation Manufacturing - The report discusses the ongoing capacity ramp-up by major manufacturers Boeing and Airbus, with a combined backlog of over 15,000 aircraft orders [2][76]. - Boeing plans to increase its monthly production of the 737 model from 42 to 52 aircraft, while Airbus aims to reach a production rate of 70-75 A320 aircraft per month by the end of 2027 [82]. - GE Aviation reported a significant increase in engine deliveries, with 2,386 commercial engines delivered in 2025, including 1,802 LEAP engines, reflecting a 40% increase [93]. - Safran's LEAP engine deliveries reached a record high of 1,802 units, with a 28% year-on-year growth, driven by strong aftermarket activity [100]. - The report recommends focusing on the domestic large aircraft supply chain, particularly companies involved in engine manufacturing and key component suppliers [53][56].