人民财讯9月23日电，华泰证券研报认为，反内卷与旺季共振，推荐电商快递板块。8月虽然是电商快递 传统淡季，但反内卷推升行业景气。往后展望，伴随旺季到来，涨价延续至年底的确定性较高，看好板 块盈利弹性超预期。中长期，社保逐步落地、行业规范化发展有望抬升估值中枢。 ...

Group 1: Express Delivery Volume Rankings - Guangzhou ranks first in express delivery processing volume with 1.303 billion pieces from January to July 2025, followed by Jinhua with 1.198 billion pieces and Shenzhen with 720 million pieces [1][4][5] - The new metric of express delivery processing volume includes both express business volume and delivery volume, providing a more comprehensive view of a city's express delivery activity [2] Group 2: Express Delivery Revenue Rankings - Shanghai leads the country in express delivery revenue with 151.02 billion yuan, followed by Guangzhou at 54.36 billion yuan and Shenzhen at 36.17 billion yuan [8][11] - The top ten cities in express delivery revenue include four from Guangdong: Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Jieyang [10] Group 3: Factors Contributing to Rankings - Jinhua and Jieyang, despite being smaller cities, excel in express delivery due to their developed e-commerce sectors and efficient logistics networks [7] - Guangzhou's success in express delivery volume is attributed to its vast supply chain, numerous online stores, and strong logistics infrastructure, making it a critical hub for express delivery [16][17][18]

Core Insights - Jitu Express (01519) reported a total of 13.99 billion packages processed in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.0% [1] - The company achieved revenue of approximately $5.499 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with a gross profit of about $538.6 million, reflecting a growth of 0.5% [1] - Adjusted net profit reached approximately $156 million, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 147.1%, while profit attributable to owners was $86.4 million, up 213.4% [1] Group 1: Southeast Asia Performance - In Southeast Asia, the number of packages reached 3.23 billion, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 57.9% [2] - Market share expanded to 32.8%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points, maintaining the industry-leading position for six consecutive years [2] - Adjusted EBIT in this region was $234.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 74.0%, with adjusted EBIT per package remaining at $0.07 [2] Group 2: China Market Dynamics - In China, the company processed 10.6 billion packages in the first half of 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 20.0% [2] - Market share increased to 11.1%, up by 0.1 percentage points, with the company ranking 5th in the market [2] - Despite intense price competition, the company focused on optimizing customer structure and fine-tuning operational management to maintain profit resilience [2] Group 3: New Market Developments - In new markets, the company processed 170 million packages, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.7% [3] - Market share in these regions grew to 6.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [3] - The company achieved a significant milestone by turning adjusted EBITDA positive for the first time in new markets, with a notable reduction in adjusted EBIT losses [3]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of ZTO Express-W to "Buy" from "Accumulate" [4][7]. Core Insights - ZTO Express-W reported a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the adjusted net profit was 2.1 billion yuan, down 26.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 22.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.21 yuan, a decrease of 0.12 yuan year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit per ticket for the first half of 2025 was 0.23 yuan, down 0.09 yuan year-on-year [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 24.9%, a decline of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year, and for the first half of 2025, it was 24.8%, down 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The core revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.18 yuan per ticket, down 0.06 yuan year-on-year, primarily due to increased incentives and a decrease in average ticket weight [2]. - The operating cost per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.89 yuan, an increase of 0.07 yuan year-on-year, with other costs rising by 134.9% [2]. Market Share and Guidance - The package volume for Q2 2025 was 9.85 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, with a market share of 19.5%, showing a 0.6 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company has lowered its full-year package volume guidance to a range of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion pieces, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 14.0% to 18.0% [3]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was 3.1 billion yuan, with expectations for 2025 to remain flat or slightly decrease [3]. - The interim dividend declared was 0.3 USD per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [3]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.10, 12.07, and 13.28 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.74, 11.73, and 10.66 [4][5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the logistics and e-commerce industry, focusing on the performance of a logistics company in Southeast Asia and China, highlighting growth metrics and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Southeast Asia Performance - In Q2, Southeast Asia's package volume reached 1.69 billion, a growth of 65.9% year-on-year. For the first half of the year, the package volume was 3.23 billion, growing by 57.9% [1]. - The growth in Southeast Asia is attributed to increased investments from e-commerce brand clients, promotional activities, and the expansion of product offerings [1]. - Major e-commerce clients like Qimu, SIM, and TikTok continue to show strong growth, contributing to the overall performance [1]. - The company is seeing a widening gap between itself and competitors in the region [1]. China Market Insights - The logistics industry in China maintained a high growth rate, with package volume increasing by 20% year-on-year from January to May 2025. The company matched this growth rate with a 20% increase in its own package volume [2]. - Service quality improvements have positively impacted the company's brand image among mainstream e-commerce clients [2]. - New market performance in Q2 saw package volume of 0.9 billion, a growth of 23.7%, with a total of 1.7 billion packages in the first half, growing by 21.7% [2]. Financial Performance and Guidance - The company maintains its financial guidance provided at the beginning of the year, focusing on semi-annual and annual records rather than quarterly updates [3]. - The visibility for the second half of the year remains low, making it difficult to predict pricing and profit margins [6]. Competitive Landscape - The company acknowledges the presence of multiple third-party logistics (3PL) providers in the market, including TikTok's partnerships with other suppliers [5]. - The competitive environment is expected to intensify with new players entering the market, which could impact pricing strategies [20]. Cost Management and Operational Efficiency - The company is focusing on cost control and operational efficiency, leveraging capabilities from its Chinese operations to enhance performance in Southeast Asia [8][11]. - There is an ongoing effort to increase vehicle utilization and improve operational efficiency, which is expected to contribute to cost reductions [11]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in Southeast Asia and new markets, with plans to continue expanding its logistics capabilities [17]. - The management is cautious about the impact of pricing pressures and competition on future profitability [6][19]. Miscellaneous Insights - The company is exploring partnerships and collaborations with various e-commerce platforms to enhance its service offerings [14][23]. - The reverse logistics segment is growing, with a reported 450 million units processed in Q2, accounting for 7% of the overall package volume [26]. Important but Overlooked Content - The company emphasizes the importance of cautious interpretation of third-party data, as discrepancies may arise between reported growth figures and actual performance [5]. - The management highlights the need for continuous communication with e-commerce clients to align on capacity and service expectations [17]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the company's performance and strategic direction in the logistics and e-commerce sectors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the rapid expansion of e-commerce in Southeast Asia, with a projected market share increase from 28.6% in 2024 to 30% in 2025 [5][6]. - The Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is forecasted to grow from $189.8 billion in 2023 to $373.6 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [5]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial profit growth, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised upward by 5%, 6%, and 3% respectively, reaching $360.6 million, $690.5 million, and $898.7 million [8]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including cost reductions through scale effects and the ability to integrate logistics across various e-commerce platforms [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: $10,259 million in 2024, $12,484 million in 2025, $14,693 million in 2026, and $16,979 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.93%, 21.69%, 17.70%, and 15.56% respectively [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from $0.01 in 2024 to $0.10 in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 3.61% in 2024 to 20.80% in 2027 [4]. Market Position - The company has established itself as the largest express delivery service provider in Southeast Asia, benefiting from significant market share and cost advantages [5][6]. - The report indicates that the company’s total parcel volume in Southeast Asia increased by 65.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching 1.69 billion parcels [10]. Valuation - The target price for the company's stock has been raised by 44% to HKD 10.80, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.0x for the years 2025-2027, reflecting the company's higher-than-industry growth prospects [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for J&T Express (01519.HK) [1] Core Views - J&T Express reported a significant year-on-year increase of 66% in parcel volume in Southeast Asia for Q2, with an average daily volume of 18.5 million parcels [1][3] - The overall average daily parcel volume for the group reached 81.2 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.5% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the strong growth of e-commerce platforms like TikTok in Southeast Asia, which is projected to reach a GMV of $128.4 billion by 2024 [1][2] - J&T Express has maintained its position as the leading express operator in Southeast Asia, with a market share of 28.6% in 2024, up 3.2 percentage points from 2023 [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q2, J&T Express's daily average parcel volume in Southeast Asia was 18.5 million, a 66% increase year-on-year, while the daily average volume in China reached 61.7 million, growing by 14.7% [1] - For the first half of the year, the total daily average parcel volume for the group was 76.9 million, up 26% year-on-year, with Southeast Asia showing a 57% increase [1] Market Dynamics - TikTok's e-commerce growth in Southeast Asia has been robust, with its GMV increasing from $4.4 billion in 2022 to $16.3 billion in 2023, and projected to reach $22.6 billion in 2024 [2] - J&T Express is positioned to benefit from the increasing parcel volumes driven by e-commerce growth, despite competition from platforms like Shopee and Lazada [2] Financial Projections - The target price for J&T Express is set at HKD 11.16, with the current price at HKD 8.39, indicating a potential upside of 33% [4] - Revenue projections for J&T Express are expected to grow from $10.26 billion in 2024 to $15.52 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.9% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [5] Core Insights - Seanergy's Q1 revenue and net profit declined year-on-year, while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) surged by 30.68%, marking the second-largest weekly increase in history [2][12] - Domestic passenger fuel surcharges for air travel have been reduced, and Beijing Daxing Airport's cumulative import and export volume has exceeded 100 billion yuan [2][14] - Aneng Logistics reported Q1 revenue of 2.587 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while SF Airlines launched its first fifth freedom cargo route [2][19] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - Seanergy's Q1 revenue was $2.4206 million, down 36.8% year-on-year, with a net loss of $6.829 million [2][12] - The SCFI increased to 2,072.71 points, up 30.68% week-on-week, driven by significant price hikes in major routes [2][13] - Domestic air travel fuel surcharge adjustments took effect on June 5, 2025, potentially boosting passenger willingness to travel [2][14] - Daxing Airport's cumulative import and export volume reached 102 billion yuan, highlighting its growing role in international trade [15] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air cargo prices showed a stable trend in May 2025, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4,444 points, down 10.3% year-on-year [23] - Domestic cargo flight operations decreased by 1.67% year-on-year in April 2025, while international flights increased by 25.08% [31] - The SCFI reported a week-on-week increase of 30.68%, while the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 5.74% [38][41] 3. Company Performance - Aneng Logistics achieved Q1 revenue of 2.587 billion yuan, with a net profit of 228 million yuan, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year increase [19][20] - SF Airlines launched its first international cargo route to Canada, enhancing its global logistics network [21] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the industrial goods export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy, and Huamao Logistics [3] - It also highlights investment opportunities in low-altitude economy sectors and cruise shipping [3]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery sector is experiencing increased performance uncertainty, but there are opportunities for valuation recovery among leading e-commerce express companies such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, driven by market share growth and cyclical bottoming of express delivery services [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Prospects - The express delivery business volume is expected to grow over 20% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024 and 2025, driven by structural demand growth from factors like small parcelization, reverse logistics, and new models such as live e-commerce and community group buying [2] - The trend of strong growth in business volume is likely to continue into 2025, supported by policies to boost domestic demand and support from e-commerce platforms [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Price competition is expected to intensify in the first four months of 2025, with a year-on-year decline in single ticket revenue of 8.3%, reflecting increased focus on market share among leading companies [3] - Despite the intensified price competition, it is anticipated that healthy competition will prevail, aided by regulatory measures against malicious competition and the lack of large-scale capital expenditures by express companies [3] Group 3: Performance of Leading Companies - Leading e-commerce express companies maintain strong competitive advantages due to asset barriers, cash reserves, and profitability, demonstrating resilience in price competition [4] - Zhongtong Express showed stable performance in Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in market share, and attention is needed on whether market share will rebound in the second half of the year [4] - The leading position and potential for improved profitability of direct-operated companies are expected to provide more certain returns for investors [4]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [1] - The company's operating revenue for Q1 2025 was 10.892 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.5% year-on-year increase [1] - The operating cash flow net amount reached 2.363 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3% [1] Operational Metrics - The company handled a total express delivery volume of 8.539 billion pieces in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [1] - The market share stood at approximately 18.9%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, maintaining the leading position in the industry [1] - The average revenue per piece of express delivery was 1.19 yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year [2] Cost and Profitability - The cost per piece of express delivery was approximately 0.68 yuan, a decrease of 12.0% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit per piece was 0.51 yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year [2] - The adjusted net profit per piece was 0.265 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% [2] Market Outlook - The company aims for a package volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion pieces for 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [2] - The company is focused on high-quality business volume growth while ensuring reasonable profits and strengthening infrastructure [2] - The express delivery industry continues to have growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors [3] Profit Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is 10.324 billion yuan, 11.655 billion yuan, and 13.388 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 2.42%, 12.89%, and 14.87% respectively [3] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic express delivery market, with expectations for steady growth in volume and profits [3]