中银证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：11月13日，上海航运交易所发布的中国进口原油综合指数 （CTFI）报2231.96点，较11月6日上涨9.5%。本周VLCC市场11月下旬货盘开始收尾，周初市场相对安 静，大部分船东、租家及经纪人参与本周在迪拜举行的行业大会，市场信息的透明度与传递速度明显放 缓。 航运方面，原油运价有所下跌，集运远洋航线运价分化。航空方面，沃兰特航空宣布完成数亿元B轮融 资，中国商飞C919首次亮相迪拜航展。物流与交通新业态方面，极兔速递"双十一"当天全球包裹量突 破亿件大关，"双11"旺季快递业务量再创新高。 核心观点 ①原油运价先跌后涨，集运远洋航线运价分化。11月13日，上海航运交易所发布的中国进口原油综合指 数（CTFI）报2231.96点，较11月6日上涨9.5%。本周VLCC市场11月下旬货盘开始收尾，周初市场相对 安静，大部分船东、租家及经纪人参与本周在迪拜举行的行业大会，市场信息的透明度与传递速度明显 放缓，在中美双方宣布共同暂停彼此的特别港口费的背景下，前期的地缘政治溢价持续回吐目前，部分 装期船位相对紧张，船东都在等下周沙特下个月装期落地，普遍对后市持乐观态度，短期内预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains an outperform rating for Jitu Express (01519), projecting earnings of $319 million and $470 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 37x and 25x. The target price remains at HKD 11.1, indicating a 9% upside from the current price [1]. Group 1: Southeast Asia Market - Jitu Express is expected to maintain its leading market share in Southeast Asia, benefiting from the growth of social e-commerce and the optimization of the express delivery landscape in 2025 [2]. - The company’s market share in Southeast Asia increased by 5.4 percentage points to 32.8%, while competitors saw declines in their market shares [2]. - The trend of free shipping in Southeast Asia's e-commerce is anticipated to further stimulate online shopping habits, allowing Jitu Express to leverage its scale for cost advantages [2]. Group 2: New Markets - The logistics industry in Latin America is still in its early stages, with Jitu Express positioned to benefit from increasing e-commerce penetration [3]. - The GMV of TikTok Shop in Brazil has seen significant growth, indicating a rising demand for logistics services in the region [3]. - Jitu Express is expected to maintain high growth in shipment volumes as it serves both Chinese e-commerce platforms and local Latin American platforms [3]. Group 3: China Market - In the short to medium term, the company faces challenges due to price wars, but there may be relief in the second half of the year as the industry observes cost optimization progress [3].

消息面上，极兔速递日前公布2025年第三季度主要经营数据。截至2025年9月30日止第三季度，公司总 体实现包裹量约76.8亿件，同比增长23.1%。各主要市场均实现双位数增长，其中东南亚及新市场增长 尤为迅猛。极兔第三季度在东南亚市场实现包裹量20亿件，同比增长78.7%；新市场实现包裹量1.04亿 件，同比增长47.9%。西部证券指出，看好东南亚市场、新市场电商平台蓬勃发展带动快递包裹量增 长，中国市场"反内卷"政策环境下公司收入、利润改善。 智通财经APP获悉，极兔速递-W(01519)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.06%，报10港元，成交额7974.16万港 元。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a parcel volume of 468 million pieces in Q3 2025, representing a 31.8% increase year-on-year and a total year-on-year increase of 25.6% for the first nine months [2][3] - The gross market in Southeast Asia and China saw significant growth, with South Asia experiencing a year-on-year increase of 78.7% for the first nine months, totaling 586 million pieces [2][3] - In China, the parcel volume reached 5.85 billion pieces in Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 47% [3][4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The e-commerce platform customers have increased their investments, driving rapid growth in business volume through promotional activities [3] - Non-platform shipments are also growing, contributing to order volume, although they account for less than 10% of total shipments [3] - The company achieved a year-on-year increase of 67% in new markets, with 270 billion pieces of parcels processed [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The South Asian market has shown strong growth, with a 63% increase in parcel volume [2] - Brazil has seen strong growth due to new customer entries, while Mexico faces challenges due to increased tariffs [4][10] - The overall industrial growth in China has slowed down, with a 12% decrease noted in August and September [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a growth guidance of 40% in new markets, with Brazil performing particularly well [10] - The strategy includes focusing on high-quality customers and optimizing operational efficiency in emerging markets [25][44] - The company is positioning itself to take advantage of the consolidation in the express delivery market as competitors withdraw [3][19] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about maintaining growth momentum in South Asia, expecting Q4 growth to exceed initial guidance [7][8] - The company is cautious about profitability in the second half of the year due to industry price increases and cost pressures [11][42] - The management views the China market as a training ground for operational efficiency and talent recruitment, aiming for sustainable growth [25][44] Other Important Information - The company does not disclose quarterly financial figures, maintaining guidance provided in August [5] - The logistics index has improved, enhancing the brand image among high-quality customers [4] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth trend in South Asia and profitability expectations - Management expects growth in South Asia to continue exceeding guidance, with a competitive market dynamic making precise predictions challenging [7][8] Question: Impact of price increases in China - Price increases have led to a slowdown in parcel volume growth, particularly affecting low-margin customers, while high-end customers remain less sensitive to price changes [34][42] Question: Future potential in South Asia and emerging markets - Management is confident in maintaining growth momentum in South Asia, with ongoing investments in operational capabilities [36][38] Question: Strategy adjustments in China - The company plans to focus on high-quality customers and improve profitability, viewing the current market as a learning opportunity [25][44]

人民财讯9月23日电，华泰证券研报认为，反内卷与旺季共振，推荐电商快递板块。8月虽然是电商快递 传统淡季，但反内卷推升行业景气。往后展望，伴随旺季到来，涨价延续至年底的确定性较高，看好板 块盈利弹性超预期。中长期，社保逐步落地、行业规范化发展有望抬升估值中枢。 ...

Group 1: Express Delivery Volume Rankings - Guangzhou ranks first in express delivery processing volume with 1.303 billion pieces from January to July 2025, followed by Jinhua with 1.198 billion pieces and Shenzhen with 720 million pieces [1][4][5] - The new metric of express delivery processing volume includes both express business volume and delivery volume, providing a more comprehensive view of a city's express delivery activity [2] Group 2: Express Delivery Revenue Rankings - Shanghai leads the country in express delivery revenue with 151.02 billion yuan, followed by Guangzhou at 54.36 billion yuan and Shenzhen at 36.17 billion yuan [8][11] - The top ten cities in express delivery revenue include four from Guangdong: Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Jieyang [10] Group 3: Factors Contributing to Rankings - Jinhua and Jieyang, despite being smaller cities, excel in express delivery due to their developed e-commerce sectors and efficient logistics networks [7] - Guangzhou's success in express delivery volume is attributed to its vast supply chain, numerous online stores, and strong logistics infrastructure, making it a critical hub for express delivery [16][17][18]

Core Insights - Jitu Express (01519) reported a total of 13.99 billion packages processed in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.0% [1] - The company achieved revenue of approximately $5.499 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with a gross profit of about $538.6 million, reflecting a growth of 0.5% [1] - Adjusted net profit reached approximately $156 million, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 147.1%, while profit attributable to owners was $86.4 million, up 213.4% [1] Group 1: Southeast Asia Performance - In Southeast Asia, the number of packages reached 3.23 billion, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 57.9% [2] - Market share expanded to 32.8%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points, maintaining the industry-leading position for six consecutive years [2] - Adjusted EBIT in this region was $234.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 74.0%, with adjusted EBIT per package remaining at $0.07 [2] Group 2: China Market Dynamics - In China, the company processed 10.6 billion packages in the first half of 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 20.0% [2] - Market share increased to 11.1%, up by 0.1 percentage points, with the company ranking 5th in the market [2] - Despite intense price competition, the company focused on optimizing customer structure and fine-tuning operational management to maintain profit resilience [2] Group 3: New Market Developments - In new markets, the company processed 170 million packages, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.7% [3] - Market share in these regions grew to 6.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [3] - The company achieved a significant milestone by turning adjusted EBITDA positive for the first time in new markets, with a notable reduction in adjusted EBIT losses [3]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of ZTO Express-W to "Buy" from "Accumulate" [4][7]. Core Insights - ZTO Express-W reported a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the adjusted net profit was 2.1 billion yuan, down 26.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 22.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.21 yuan, a decrease of 0.12 yuan year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit per ticket for the first half of 2025 was 0.23 yuan, down 0.09 yuan year-on-year [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 24.9%, a decline of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year, and for the first half of 2025, it was 24.8%, down 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The core revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.18 yuan per ticket, down 0.06 yuan year-on-year, primarily due to increased incentives and a decrease in average ticket weight [2]. - The operating cost per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.89 yuan, an increase of 0.07 yuan year-on-year, with other costs rising by 134.9% [2]. Market Share and Guidance - The package volume for Q2 2025 was 9.85 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, with a market share of 19.5%, showing a 0.6 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company has lowered its full-year package volume guidance to a range of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion pieces, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 14.0% to 18.0% [3]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was 3.1 billion yuan, with expectations for 2025 to remain flat or slightly decrease [3]. - The interim dividend declared was 0.3 USD per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [3]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.10, 12.07, and 13.28 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.74, 11.73, and 10.66 [4][5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the logistics and e-commerce industry, focusing on the performance of a logistics company in Southeast Asia and China, highlighting growth metrics and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Southeast Asia Performance - In Q2, Southeast Asia's package volume reached 1.69 billion, a growth of 65.9% year-on-year. For the first half of the year, the package volume was 3.23 billion, growing by 57.9% [1]. - The growth in Southeast Asia is attributed to increased investments from e-commerce brand clients, promotional activities, and the expansion of product offerings [1]. - Major e-commerce clients like Qimu, SIM, and TikTok continue to show strong growth, contributing to the overall performance [1]. - The company is seeing a widening gap between itself and competitors in the region [1]. China Market Insights - The logistics industry in China maintained a high growth rate, with package volume increasing by 20% year-on-year from January to May 2025. The company matched this growth rate with a 20% increase in its own package volume [2]. - Service quality improvements have positively impacted the company's brand image among mainstream e-commerce clients [2]. - New market performance in Q2 saw package volume of 0.9 billion, a growth of 23.7%, with a total of 1.7 billion packages in the first half, growing by 21.7% [2]. Financial Performance and Guidance - The company maintains its financial guidance provided at the beginning of the year, focusing on semi-annual and annual records rather than quarterly updates [3]. - The visibility for the second half of the year remains low, making it difficult to predict pricing and profit margins [6]. Competitive Landscape - The company acknowledges the presence of multiple third-party logistics (3PL) providers in the market, including TikTok's partnerships with other suppliers [5]. - The competitive environment is expected to intensify with new players entering the market, which could impact pricing strategies [20]. Cost Management and Operational Efficiency - The company is focusing on cost control and operational efficiency, leveraging capabilities from its Chinese operations to enhance performance in Southeast Asia [8][11]. - There is an ongoing effort to increase vehicle utilization and improve operational efficiency, which is expected to contribute to cost reductions [11]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in Southeast Asia and new markets, with plans to continue expanding its logistics capabilities [17]. - The management is cautious about the impact of pricing pressures and competition on future profitability [6][19]. Miscellaneous Insights - The company is exploring partnerships and collaborations with various e-commerce platforms to enhance its service offerings [14][23]. - The reverse logistics segment is growing, with a reported 450 million units processed in Q2, accounting for 7% of the overall package volume [26]. Important but Overlooked Content - The company emphasizes the importance of cautious interpretation of third-party data, as discrepancies may arise between reported growth figures and actual performance [5]. - The management highlights the need for continuous communication with e-commerce clients to align on capacity and service expectations [17]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the company's performance and strategic direction in the logistics and e-commerce sectors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the rapid expansion of e-commerce in Southeast Asia, with a projected market share increase from 28.6% in 2024 to 30% in 2025 [5][6]. - The Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is forecasted to grow from $189.8 billion in 2023 to $373.6 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [5]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial profit growth, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised upward by 5%, 6%, and 3% respectively, reaching $360.6 million, $690.5 million, and $898.7 million [8]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including cost reductions through scale effects and the ability to integrate logistics across various e-commerce platforms [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: $10,259 million in 2024, $12,484 million in 2025, $14,693 million in 2026, and $16,979 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.93%, 21.69%, 17.70%, and 15.56% respectively [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from $0.01 in 2024 to $0.10 in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 3.61% in 2024 to 20.80% in 2027 [4]. Market Position - The company has established itself as the largest express delivery service provider in Southeast Asia, benefiting from significant market share and cost advantages [5][6]. - The report indicates that the company’s total parcel volume in Southeast Asia increased by 65.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching 1.69 billion parcels [10]. Valuation - The target price for the company's stock has been raised by 44% to HKD 10.80, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.0x for the years 2025-2027, reflecting the company's higher-than-industry growth prospects [8].