供应端前景 按照日程安排，OPEC+主要成员国将于10月5日举行线上会议，商议11月的产量安排。OPEC+的石油产 量约占全球总量的一半，其成员包括石油输出国组织欧佩克成员国，以及俄罗斯等非欧佩克产油盟国。 原油跌至四个月低位。 周四（2日）国际油价震荡走低，WTI原油近月合约逼近60美元关口，刷新四个月低位。美国政府停摆 给全球最大经济体需求前景带来考验，与此同时本周末将举行的产油国联盟欧佩克+（OPEC+）部长级 会议可能进一步增产的报道加剧了供需关系的压力。不过，地缘政治因素可能成为重大变量，俄罗斯和 伊朗的供应安全或将引发油价短期性剧烈波动。 为了平衡疫情后市场，OPEC+2022年以来的减产规模在峰值时达到585万桶/日，这一减产额度由三部分 构成：220万桶/日的自愿减产、165万桶/日的额外减产，以及该组织全体成员共同实施的200万桶/日的 减产。 自今年4月起，OPEC+已放弃减产策略。该组织此举一方面是为了提升市场份额，另一方面也是受到美 国总统特朗普施压，要求其降低油价。8个参与减产的OPEC+成员国在9月底前，完全取消此前减产计 划中的一项 ——220万桶/日的自愿减产。从10月开始，这 ...

智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，OPEC+正持续推进夺回全球市场份额的战略，该组织可能在11月再次提高石油产量。具体来看，以沙特阿拉 伯为首的OPEC+联盟计划在10月5日举行的线上会议上，讨论至少将11月产量增加与10月计划的13.7万桶/日相同的幅度。尽管整个石油行业已多次 发出供应过剩的警告，但石油输出国组织及其盟友仍选择分阶段恢复此前停产的石油产量，目前总计恢复规模已达166万桶/日。 在OPEC+可能再次提高石油产量之际，科威特石油公司首席执行官Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah表示，全球石油需求正以足以支撑OPEC+增产步伐的速度 持续扩张。 Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah表示："这个市场展现出比部分交易员最初预期更强的韧性。因此我们看到OPEC+国家正在缓慢但有条不紊地按计划增加供 应，这为油价带来了相对稳定性。"他补充称，这些进展"强化"了其关于需求将持续增长的观点。 在经历多年产量限制后，OPEC+正通过逐步恢复闲置产能的策略重新争夺市场份额。尽管供应增加，但全球夏季需求帮助吸收了额外供应，使油价 至今保持相对坚挺。 然而，随着部分消费需求开始放缓，未来数月市场格局可 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★ [1] Core Views - The oil market supply and demand have been basically balanced since the third quarter, but the inventory accumulation pressure is expected to increase due to OPEC+ production increase in September and weaker demand after the peak season, providing a bearish guidance for oil prices [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil has relatively weak follow-up increase compared to crude oil, while low-sulfur fuel oil has given back most of its previous gains. The supply pressure of LU has eased, and FU has received a phased geopolitical premium boost [3] - The geopolitical conflict between Venezuela and the US may affect Venezuelan oil shipments. The inventories of asphalt have continued to decline, and the short-term BU is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - After the end of the gas off-season, LPG shows certain resilience. The import cost increase and domestic demand rebound support the price, and the short-term futures market shows a pattern of near-term strength and far-term weakness [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC10 contract rising 0.57% intraday. The net long positions in overseas crude oil futures and options are at a low level, and oil prices are still sensitive to geopolitical fluctuations. The US issued a new round of sanctions against Iranian oil sales on Tuesday [2] - Consider the opportunity to short on rallies when the SC11 contract rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel driven by this round of geopolitical fluctuations, and use out-of-the-money call options for protection [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil has relatively weak follow-up increase compared to crude oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil has given back most of its previous gains. The inventories of Singapore and Fujairah have both increased month-on-month [3] - The third batch of quotas has been issued much later than market expectations. As the utilization rate increases, the supply pressure of LU has eased, providing certain support for prices. The FU warehouse receipts decreased by 11,280 tons today, and the geopolitical conflicts in high-sulfur resource supply countries have given FU a phased geopolitical premium boost [3] Asphalt - The geopolitical conflict between Venezuela and the US is intensifying, and it is necessary to track and observe whether it will affect Venezuelan oil shipments [4] - The latest data shows that both factory and social inventories have continued to decline, meeting the previous expectation of marginal tightening of supply and demand. The short-term BU is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the 10 contract is strongly supported at 3,500 yuan/ton [4] - For the spread strategy, continue to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the cracking spread between BU and the SC10 contract on pullbacks [4] LPG - LPG prices have remained stable in September. After the end of the gas off-season, it shows certain resilience. After the previous rapid decline, the bearish pressure has been released, and the international market has strong bottom support due to the strong chemical demand in East Asia recently [5] - The increase in import cost and the rebound in domestic demand support the price, and the price of civil gas has been raised. Although the high level of warehouse receipts puts pressure on the futures market, the stabilization of the spot market eases the delivery pressure, and the high basis pattern remains. The short-term futures market shows a pattern of near-term strength and far-term weakness [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (one star represents a bullish bias, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (indicating a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market supply - demand was basically balanced in Q3. With a 1.4% drawdown in crude oil inventory and a 2.6% build - up in refined oil inventory, the overall oil inventory increased slightly by 0.1%. Considering the further increase in OPEC+ production in September and the weakening demand after the peak season, there is growing inventory build - up pressure, and the supply - demand situation provides a bearish signal for oil prices. However, short - term oil prices are relatively resilient, and there is an opportunity to short at high levels when the SC11 contract rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel [1]. - High and low - sulfur fuel oils both rose today, with LU having a relatively stronger upward trend. Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year as of the end of July, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. At the same time, domestic refineries' enthusiasm for producing marine fuel was low, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year as of July. Multiple factors led to the rebound of LU and the strengthening of FU [2]. - As the traditional peak season arrives, asphalt demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens marginally. The 10 - contract is clearly supported at 3500 yuan/ton, but the upside space is limited for now. In the short term, BU is expected to fluctuate strongly. For spread strategies, one can continuously pay attention to going long the crack spread between BU and the SC10 contract on pullbacks [3]. - The 9 - month CP of LPG remained stable, showing some resilience after the end of the gas off - season. After the previous rapid decline, the bearish pressure was released, and with strong East Asian chemical demand recently, the international market has good bottom support. Import costs have risen and domestic demand has rebounded, supporting the increase in civil gas prices. Although high warrant levels put pressure on the futures market, the stabilization of the spot market eases the delivery pressure, and the high - basis situation persists, with the short - term futures market showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply - demand balance in Q3: Crude oil inventory decreased by 1.4%, refined oil inventory increased by 2.6%, and overall oil inventory increased slightly by 0.1% [1]. - Future trends: With increased OPEC+ production in September and weakening demand after the peak season, inventory build - up pressure will increase, and the supply - demand situation is bearish for oil prices [1]. - Investment strategy: Wait for the SC11 contract to rebound above 495 yuan/barrel to short at high levels, and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Market performance: Both high and low - sulfur fuel oils rose, with LU having a stronger upward trend [2]. - Demand situation: Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year as of the end of July, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year [2]. - Supply situation: Domestic refineries' enthusiasm for producing marine fuel was low, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year as of July [2]. - Factors for price increase: Crude oil rebounded due to geopolitical premiums, the third - batch quota was later than expected, and the supply pressure of LU was postponed [2]. Asphalt - Market situation: As the traditional peak season arrives, demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens marginally, with faster inventory drawdown in refinery and social inventories [3]. - Price trend: The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton, and in the short term, BU is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. - Spread strategy: Continuously pay attention to going long the crack spread between BU and the SC10 contract on pullbacks [3]. LPG - Market performance: The 9 - month CP remained stable, showing resilience after the end of the gas off - season [4]. - International market: After the previous rapid decline, the bearish pressure was released, and with strong East Asian chemical demand, the international market has good bottom support [4]. - Domestic market: Import costs have risen, domestic demand has rebounded, and civil gas prices have increased. Although high warrant levels put pressure on the futures market, the stabilization of the spot market eases the delivery pressure, and the high - basis situation persists, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the short - term futures market [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **global oil market**, particularly the dynamics of **Brent crude oil prices** and **OPEC+ production** strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Market Surplus**: A projected average surplus of **890k b/d** from July 2025 through June 2026 is expected, leading to global oil inventory builds of around **100 million barrels** if historical patterns hold [2][10][85]. 2. **Price Forecasts**: Brent crude oil prices are anticipated to average **$63.50/bbl** in the second half of 2025, potentially dropping below **$60/bbl**. However, a recovery to above **$70/bbl** is projected by summer 2026 due to various supportive factors [2][4][21][24]. 3. **OPEC+ Production Strategy**: OPEC+ is expected to increase production, with net volumes rising from **27.8 million b/d** this year to **27.9 million b/d** next year, driven by quota revisions and a strategy to regain market share [15][37]. 4. **US Oil Output**: The US shale oil output growth is slowing, with a **15%** decline in the rig count since March due to lower prices and rising costs. In contrast, Canadian production is expected to grow by **100k b/d** next year [3][27][31]. 5. **Demand Growth**: Global oil demand is projected to grow by **900k b/d** in 2025 and **1 million b/d** in 2026, supported by upward revisions in global GDP growth expectations of **3%** for 2025 and **3.1%** for 2026 [3][7][48]. 6. **Geopolitical Risks**: The ongoing trade war and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, pose significant risks to the oil price outlook. A ceasefire in Ukraine could lead to sanctions relief and increased Russian oil output [3][59][60]. 7. **China's Role**: China has been a major driver of global crude oil inventory builds, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the increase in 1H25. This is part of China's strategy to enhance energy security amid geopolitical uncertainties [87][88]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Contango Market Structure**: The Brent crude market is expected to flip into contango over the next six months, indicating a temporary oversupply situation [4][21]. 2. **Long-term Price Stability**: Despite short-term bearish outlooks, long-dated Brent prices are expected to stabilize in the **$60-$80/bbl** range, with potential recovery into **2H26** [2][4]. 3. **Emerging Market Demand**: Emerging economies, particularly in Asia, are expected to lead incremental oil demand growth, with China projected to consume **16.9 million b/d** and India **6.1 million b/d** by 2026 [54][55]. 4. **Inventory Trends**: Global oil inventories are projected to build by **250k b/d** in 2H25 and **310k b/d** in 1H26, reinforcing the bearish price outlook for the near term [82][85]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the global oil market, highlighting the interplay between supply dynamics, price forecasts, and geopolitical factors.

国际能源署(IEA)最新报告指出，随着需求增长放缓与供应持续攀升，全球石油市场正面临前所未有的 供应过剩局面。 该机构月度数据显示，全球石油库存正以每日296万桶的速度激增，这一累积速度甚至超过了2020年疫 情期间的平均水平。今明两年全球石油需求增速将不足2023年水平的一半，而供应端却持续扩张。以沙 特为首的欧佩克+联盟正加速恢复暂停产能，同时IEA小幅上调了对2026年非欧佩克+产油国(以美洲国 家为主导)的产量预期。 "随着年底及2026年的预期供应远超需求，石油市场的供需平衡正变得愈发失衡，"IEA表示，"显然，要 实现市场平衡，必须做出一些调整。" 供应格局重构 IEA将2026年非欧佩克+产油国日供应增长预期上调10万桶至100万桶，增量主要来自美国、圭亚那、加 拿大和巴西。 面对竞争对手的扩张，欧佩克+正试图重夺市场份额。 沙特近月来持续推动联盟加速复产，在8月初批准了9月继续增产，最终将完成220万桶/日产能的全面重 启。但该联盟下一步动向尚不明朗——欧佩克+表示可能选择继续增产、暂停行动甚至逆转近期增产决 策。IEA报告显示，随着沙特缩减6月以色列-伊朗冲突期间的突击产量，上月22国集团总 ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil demand growth will be approximately 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2025, marking the lowest increase since 2009 [1] - In the first quarter of this year, global oil demand growth reached an average of 1.1 million bpd, but significantly slowed to an average of 550,000 bpd in the second quarter, particularly in emerging markets [1] - The report anticipates that global oil demand will reach 104.4 million bpd by 2026, with a growth of 720,000 bpd [1] Supply Dynamics - Global oil supply averaged 105.6 million bpd in June, a substantial increase of 950,000 bpd month-on-month and 2.9 million bpd year-on-year, with OPEC+ contributing 1.9 million bpd [1] - With OPEC+ raising production targets for August, global average crude oil supply is expected to increase by 2.1 million bpd this year, reaching 105.1 million bpd, and potentially increasing by another 1.3 million bpd by 2026 [1] - Non-OPEC+ countries are projected to increase oil production by an average of 1.4 million bpd and 940,000 bpd in the next two years [1] Refining and Processing - In June, global refinery crude processing increased by 1.7 million bpd, with expectations of a further increase of 2 million bpd in July and August due to seasonal demand [2] - Global crude processing is projected to reach a peak of 85.4 million bpd, with annual averages of 83.3 million bpd and 83.8 million bpd expected in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - Despite a narrowing of refining margins in June due to rising crude prices, margins have rebounded to their highest levels of the year in early July [2] Inventory Trends - Global oil inventories surged by 73.9 million barrels to 7.818 billion barrels in May, with significant increases in crude, LNG, and refined product inventories [2] - Preliminary data for June indicates further increases in global oil inventories, primarily driven by offshore tanker storage and rising inventories in non-OECD countries [2] Price Movements - The North Sea crude benchmark price rose by $7 per barrel in June, averaging $71.35 per barrel, with prices fluctuating between $65 and $80 per barrel [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, have influenced price spikes, although the market has shown signs of oversupply despite OPEC+ decisions to increase production [3] OPEC+ Strategy - The IEA expects OPEC+ to complete its supply recovery plan of 2.2 million bpd a year ahead of schedule, which may exacerbate oversupply in the international oil market [4] - The increase in OPEC+ production is seen as necessary to meet short-term seasonal demand but could lead to greater price volatility risks in the latter half of 2025 [4] - Structural changes in the international oil market are anticipated, with supply growth expected to significantly outpace demand growth in the coming years [4]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that despite a supply-demand imbalance showing oversupply, the global oil market may be tighter than it appears due to refineries increasing processing rates to meet summer travel demand [2] - IEA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up by 300,000 bpd from previous estimates, while demand is expected to grow by only 700,000 bpd, indicating significant oversupply [2] - The IEA notes that the recent OPEC+ decision to accelerate the easing of production cuts has not had a substantial impact on the market, as price indicators suggest that the physical crude oil market is tighter than the supply-demand balance data indicates [2] Oil Supply and Demand - IEA projects that global oil demand will grow by an average of 720,000 bpd next year, down by 20,000 bpd from previous forecasts, while supply growth is expected to be 1.3 million bpd, indicating that oversupply will persist [2] - OPEC officials and Western oil executives have stated that the increase in production has not led to a rise in inventories, suggesting that the market still "craves more crude" [2] Russian Oil Exports - IEA reports a continuous decline in Russian crude and product oil exports, raising questions about Russia's ability to maintain production capacity [3] - In June, Russian crude oil loading averaged 4.68 million bpd, while product oil exports fell by 110,000 bpd to 2.55 million bpd, marking the lowest levels for this time of year in five years [4] - Despite the decline in export volumes, Russia's oil export revenue increased to $13.6 billion in June, up by over $800 million from May, reflecting a 6.4% increase due to supply concerns and rising international oil prices [5]

与此同时，我们不能忽视地缘政治风险。周日胡塞武装在红海发动袭击后，以色列随即对也门进行了打 击。这提醒我们，中东停火局势的脆弱性不容忽视。 回到欧佩克周六的决定：欧佩克 + 最初在 4 月制定的计划是，到 2026 年 9 月，每月恢复 13.7 万桶 / 日 的产量。据此，沙特阿拉伯、科威特、伊拉克、阿联酋、阿尔及利亚、阿曼、俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦开始 逐步取消其 220 万桶 / 日的自愿减产。然而，随着即将到来的 8 月增产，以及此前几个月的大幅增产， 该组织加快了增产步伐，速度是 4 月所公布计划的四倍。原计划增产 246 万桶 / 日(其中包括阿联酋的 产能提升)，到 8 月时，在原计划时间仅过去五个月的情况下，将近 80% 的增产量有望恢复。 欧佩克的目标显然是实现产量正常化，其策略似乎是 "尽快完成此事"，因为该组织选择了市场份额策 略而非价格防御策略。鉴于这一目标，尽快取消减产是合理的。一旦秘密泄露，就很难再掩盖了。周六 的决定只会让进一步的超额生产变得合法化，但这些配额变化只是名义上的，并非实际产量的变化，因 为一些成员国如伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦等已经超过了其配额，而其他国家则已接近满负荷生产。对于 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC's recent unexpected production increase plan is deemed necessary for the global market, despite Wall Street's pessimism about oil prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - Key oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait, emphasize the need for the recent production increase, indicating that inventory levels have not significantly accumulated despite months of increased output [1] - Signs of supply tightness are evident, with crude oil inventories at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma reaching their lowest levels for the same period since 2014, and diesel inventories sharply declining [3] - OPEC+ unexpectedly announced an additional production of 411,000 barrels per day in April, which was later expanded to 548,000 barrels per day [4] Group 2: Demand Outlook - The CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, expresses optimism about healthy global oil demand growth despite trade challenges and tariff barriers impacting the global economy [4] - Kuwait's oil company CEO notes that the current market conditions are favorable, creating opportunities for market share acquisition due to potential supply tightness [4] Group 3: Future Concerns - TotalEnergies' CEO points out that the market's muted response to geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, suggests ample supply [4] - Analysts predict that the market may experience a reversal in supply-demand dynamics later this year as refinery processing rates decline and new production enters the market [5] Group 4: OPEC's Media Controversy - OPEC has faced criticism for restricting access to major media outlets, including Bloomberg, The New York Times, The Financial Times, and The Wall Street Journal, during its meetings, raising concerns about transparency [5] - The Saudi Energy Minister has previously criticized media coverage of OPEC, and the recent restrictions have limited journalists' opportunities to question ministers regarding production decisions [5]