Accessible version Global Energy Weekly Oil market surplus grows Forward oil balances may lead to lower Brent in 2H25 In this note we update our oil balances to reflect growing OPEC+ supplies against a backdrop of better-than-expected demand conditions. Net, we now project an average surplus of 890k b/d in the 12 months from July 2025 through June 2026. This surplus should result in global oil inventory builds of around 100mn barrels over the same window if historical patterns are maintained. As such we rei ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil demand growth will be approximately 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2025, marking the lowest increase since 2009 [1] - In the first quarter of this year, global oil demand growth reached an average of 1.1 million bpd, but significantly slowed to an average of 550,000 bpd in the second quarter, particularly in emerging markets [1] - The report anticipates that global oil demand will reach 104.4 million bpd by 2026, with a growth of 720,000 bpd [1] Supply Dynamics - Global oil supply averaged 105.6 million bpd in June, a substantial increase of 950,000 bpd month-on-month and 2.9 million bpd year-on-year, with OPEC+ contributing 1.9 million bpd [1] - With OPEC+ raising production targets for August, global average crude oil supply is expected to increase by 2.1 million bpd this year, reaching 105.1 million bpd, and potentially increasing by another 1.3 million bpd by 2026 [1] - Non-OPEC+ countries are projected to increase oil production by an average of 1.4 million bpd and 940,000 bpd in the next two years [1] Refining and Processing - In June, global refinery crude processing increased by 1.7 million bpd, with expectations of a further increase of 2 million bpd in July and August due to seasonal demand [2] - Global crude processing is projected to reach a peak of 85.4 million bpd, with annual averages of 83.3 million bpd and 83.8 million bpd expected in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - Despite a narrowing of refining margins in June due to rising crude prices, margins have rebounded to their highest levels of the year in early July [2] Inventory Trends - Global oil inventories surged by 73.9 million barrels to 7.818 billion barrels in May, with significant increases in crude, LNG, and refined product inventories [2] - Preliminary data for June indicates further increases in global oil inventories, primarily driven by offshore tanker storage and rising inventories in non-OECD countries [2] Price Movements - The North Sea crude benchmark price rose by $7 per barrel in June, averaging $71.35 per barrel, with prices fluctuating between $65 and $80 per barrel [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, have influenced price spikes, although the market has shown signs of oversupply despite OPEC+ decisions to increase production [3] OPEC+ Strategy - The IEA expects OPEC+ to complete its supply recovery plan of 2.2 million bpd a year ahead of schedule, which may exacerbate oversupply in the international oil market [4] - The increase in OPEC+ production is seen as necessary to meet short-term seasonal demand but could lead to greater price volatility risks in the latter half of 2025 [4] - Structural changes in the international oil market are anticipated, with supply growth expected to significantly outpace demand growth in the coming years [4]

尽管如此，IEA称，炼油厂为满足夏季出行及发电需求而提高加工率，正使市场趋紧，而OPEC+上周 六宣布的最新增产并未产生明显影响。 "鉴于基本面趋紧，OPEC+加速解除减产的决定并未对市场产生实质影响，"IEA在月度报告中称，"价 格指标也显示，实物原油市场的紧张程度高于我们的供需平衡数据所显示的庞大过剩。 " 本周早些时候，OPEC成员国官员、西方石油巨头高管均表示，增产并未导致库存上升，表明市场仍"渴 求更多原油"。 IEA预计，明年全球石油需求增长平均为72万桶/日（较此前预测下调2万桶/日），供应增长为130万桶/ 日（此前预测为110万桶/日），暗示供应过剩将延续。 俄罗斯石油出口恶化 IEA在报告中指出，俄罗斯原油及成品油出口量持续恶化，令人质疑其维持产能的能力。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 国际能源署（IEA）周五表示，尽管供需平衡显示过剩，但全球石油市场可能比表面更紧张——因炼油 厂正加大加工量以满足夏季出行需求。 这家为工业化国家提供咨询的机构预计，今年全球石油供应将增加210万桶/日（较此前预测上调30万 桶/日），而需求仅增长70万桶/日，这意味着存在显著过 ...

与此同时，我们不能忽视地缘政治风险。周日胡塞武装在红海发动袭击后，以色列随即对也门进行了打 击。这提醒我们，中东停火局势的脆弱性不容忽视。 回到欧佩克周六的决定：欧佩克 + 最初在 4 月制定的计划是，到 2026 年 9 月，每月恢复 13.7 万桶 / 日 的产量。据此，沙特阿拉伯、科威特、伊拉克、阿联酋、阿尔及利亚、阿曼、俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦开始 逐步取消其 220 万桶 / 日的自愿减产。然而，随着即将到来的 8 月增产，以及此前几个月的大幅增产， 该组织加快了增产步伐，速度是 4 月所公布计划的四倍。原计划增产 246 万桶 / 日(其中包括阿联酋的 产能提升)，到 8 月时，在原计划时间仅过去五个月的情况下，将近 80% 的增产量有望恢复。 欧佩克的目标显然是实现产量正常化，其策略似乎是 "尽快完成此事"，因为该组织选择了市场份额策 略而非价格防御策略。鉴于这一目标，尽快取消减产是合理的。一旦秘密泄露，就很难再掩盖了。周六 的决定只会让进一步的超额生产变得合法化，但这些配额变化只是名义上的，并非实际产量的变化，因 为一些成员国如伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦等已经超过了其配额，而其他国家则已接近满负荷生产。对于 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC's recent unexpected production increase plan is deemed necessary for the global market, despite Wall Street's pessimism about oil prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - Key oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait, emphasize the need for the recent production increase, indicating that inventory levels have not significantly accumulated despite months of increased output [1] - Signs of supply tightness are evident, with crude oil inventories at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma reaching their lowest levels for the same period since 2014, and diesel inventories sharply declining [3] - OPEC+ unexpectedly announced an additional production of 411,000 barrels per day in April, which was later expanded to 548,000 barrels per day [4] Group 2: Demand Outlook - The CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, expresses optimism about healthy global oil demand growth despite trade challenges and tariff barriers impacting the global economy [4] - Kuwait's oil company CEO notes that the current market conditions are favorable, creating opportunities for market share acquisition due to potential supply tightness [4] Group 3: Future Concerns - TotalEnergies' CEO points out that the market's muted response to geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, suggests ample supply [4] - Analysts predict that the market may experience a reversal in supply-demand dynamics later this year as refinery processing rates decline and new production enters the market [5] Group 4: OPEC's Media Controversy - OPEC has faced criticism for restricting access to major media outlets, including Bloomberg, The New York Times, The Financial Times, and The Wall Street Journal, during its meetings, raising concerns about transparency [5] - The Saudi Energy Minister has previously criticized media coverage of OPEC, and the recent restrictions have limited journalists' opportunities to question ministers regarding production decisions [5]

石化周报 地缘冲突持续发酵，油价或高位宽幅震荡 2025 年 06 月 21 日 ➢ 地缘冲突持续发酵，油价或高位宽幅震荡。6 月 16 日，因伊朗请求卡塔尔、 沙特和阿曼要求特朗普施压以色列促使以色列停火，叠加 G7 集团领导人呼吁以 色列和伊朗缓和局势，市场对地缘持续性的预期有所减弱，布伦特油价最低回落 至 71 美元/桶以下。然而，由于多重因素的影响，以伊冲突目前看不到短期结束 的迹象，油价本周依然呈现上涨趋势。时间线上来看，美国方面多次呼吁伊朗签 署限制其核计划的协议，在 6 月 17 日特朗普在社交平台上发文称"伊朗本应签 署我让他们签署的'协议'"后，6 月 18 日美国扩大了其在中东地区的军事部 署；而伊朗态度相对坚决，同日其表示不接受压力下达成的和平；6 月 19 日， 美国表示将在未来两周内决定美国是否介入以色列和伊朗的冲突；6 月 21 日最 新消息，伊朗表明愿意在以色列"停止侵略"后考虑通过外交途径解决伊核问题， 而特朗普表示"可能支持以伊停火，但让以色列停下来很难，也许美国没必要打 击伊朗"。从美国的表态来看，以伊冲突短期或仍将持续，此外，伊拉克表示近 几天已有 50 架以色列战机侵犯 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ agreed on a significant production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day for July during an online meeting on May 31 [1][2] - Concerns over multiple oil-producing countries accelerating their exit from voluntary production cuts led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $60.79 and $63.90 per barrel, respectively [1][2] - The overall decline in international oil prices this year has been approximately 15%, raising concerns about the future performance of the oil extraction industry [2] Group 2 - Analysts from JPMorgan indicated that the global oil market is currently oversupplied by 2.2 million barrels per day, suggesting that price adjustments may be necessary to restore balance [3] - Violeta Todorova from Leverage Shares noted that if OPEC+ countries increase supply as expected, oil prices could drop by about 10%, potentially reaching $53 to $55 per barrel [4] - The low oil prices pose financial risks to oil producers worldwide, particularly affecting U.S. shale oil producers who may struggle to respond to calls for increased drilling [4]

Group 1: OPEC+ Decisions and Production Capacity - OPEC+ decided to maintain current production quotas and will establish a mechanism to assess each member's production capacity as a reference for the 2027 output baseline [1][2] - The introduction of the production baseline clause is seen as a policy basis for potential future capacity releases and quota arrangements [2] - OPEC+ currently produces about half of the world's oil and has implemented three voluntary production cut plans since 2022, with one plan led by eight member countries limiting production by 2.2 million barrels per day [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Outlook - International oil prices fell below $60 in April due to OPEC+ production increases and concerns over global economic weakness [5] - OPEC has revised its global economic growth forecast down to 2.9% for this year, while maintaining a 3.1% forecast for next year, indicating ongoing trade-related uncertainties [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil demand growth forecast, expecting an increase of 740,000 barrels per day next year, driven by strong production from non-OPEC+ countries [6] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors and Market Competition - Geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear situation are expected to disrupt supply [8] - The release of OPEC's voluntary production limits is anticipated to be completed by September, potentially leading to a significant increase in global oil inventories [8] - The current market environment suggests a competitive struggle for market share, with oil prices unlikely to rise significantly without positive economic data [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no explicit industry investment rating mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests to take profit on short positions in crude oil and stay on the sidelines for the short - term [1]. - With OPEC+ accelerating production increases, there are concerns about an oversupply in the oil market, leading to a bearish outlook on oil prices in the short - term. However, some institutions expect a rebound in Brent crude prices in the next few months [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Information International Crude Oil Prices - WTI June crude oil futures fell $0.95 per barrel, a 1.60% decline, to $58.29 per barrel; Brent July crude oil futures fell $0.84 per barrel, a 1.35% decline, to $61.29 per barrel; SC2506 crude oil futures fell 17.00 yuan per barrel, a 3.48% decline, to 471.10 yuan per barrel [1]. Market News and Events - Iran's foreign minister stated that an agreement with the US could be reached if the goal is to prevent nuclear weapons [2]. - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil to the US in June at a premium of $3.40 per barrel over the Argus Sour Crude Index [2]. - The EU will announce a roadmap to gradually reduce dependence on Russian energy exports on Tuesday [2]. - As of April 24, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year was 4.44 million liters, with a consumption of 3.2 million liters from January to March. The mandatory palm oil blending ratio for biodiesel in Indonesia this year is 40%, up from 35% last year [2]. - If OPEC+ continues to accelerate production increases, DNB Markets analysts believe Brent crude prices could fall below $50 per barrel by the end of this year. OPEC and its allies may significantly increase supply from July to October if member countries' quota compliance does not improve [2]. - The EU plans to propose a ban on importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [2]. - Despite short - term pressure, UBS Group expects Brent crude prices to rebound to $68 per barrel in the next few months [2]. - After OPEC+ agreed to continue accelerating production increases in June, it may approve another 411,000 - barrel - per - day increase in July [2][4]. - Barclays lowered its price forecasts for Brent crude for this year and next due to OPEC+'s accelerated production increases [2][3][4]. - As of the week ending April 29, the speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures increased by 2,716 contracts to 116,599 contracts [2]. - On Monday, oil prices in the Asian market fell by more than $2 due to concerns about more supply entering the market as OPEC+ further accelerates oil production increases. The six - month spread of Brent crude turned into a positive spread of 11 cents per barrel for the first time since December 2023, indicating an expectation of sufficient market supply. ING Bank expects the average price of Brent crude this year to drop from $70 to $65 and anticipates a further surplus in the global oil balance throughout 2025 [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3]. Analyst's View - A Reuters columnist believes that OPEC+'s reason for increasing supply is not valid. With rising supply and potentially falling demand, the oil price is likely to be bearish in the next few months [4]. - Three members of Goldman Sachs' commodities research team lowered their oil price forecasts based on the assumption of increased OPEC+ supply. Goldman Sachs now expects OPEC+'s final production to increase by 410,000 barrels per day in July, up from the previous forecast of 140,000 barrels per day. It predicts that the average price of Brent crude will be $60 per barrel for the rest of 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, and the average price of WTI crude will be $56 per barrel for the rest of 2025 and $52 per barrel in 2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak calls for OPEC+ countries to contribute equally to the balance of supply and demand in the oil market, urging adherence to production limits and compensation plans [1] Group 1 - Novak emphasizes the importance of equal contributions from OPEC+ nations to maintain market stability [1] - The call for compliance with production limits indicates ongoing efforts to manage oil supply effectively [1] - The mention of compensation plans suggests a structured approach to address any production discrepancies among member countries [1]