更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 委内瑞拉灰犀牛下的市场与油价展望 20260104 摘要 0&A 委内瑞拉事件的背景和历史铺垫是什么? 委内瑞拉事件并非孤立发生,而是经过长时间酝酿的结果。自查韦斯去世后,马 杜罗政府治理不善,导致石油产量暴跌,这是美国最不满意的地方。2020年, 美国司法部以毒品恐怖主义罪起诉马杜罗及其14名官员,并在同年实施了代号 为 GDN 的行动,但失败后调整策略,转向全政府精确打击模式。这一系列历史铺 垫为此次事件奠定了基础。 亚和海外投 争 狗 - 美国以反毒品为名,通过海上封锁、摧毁物流渠道等行动测试委内瑞拉抗 ● 压能力,随后采取网络战和动能打击瘫痪其电网和指挥系统,特种部队精 准抓捕马杜罗夫妇,突显美国军事行动的高效性。 委内瑞拉事件暴露权力真空,对国际主权体系造成冲击,地缘政治风险上 . 升,需重新评估相关企业方向。同时,美国军事迭代能力被低估,反隐身 雷达、天基预警等领域或迎发展机遇。 恒科指数大幅上涨 4%,首次走出四季度以来的颓势,若未来三个交易日 ● 持续上涨,将打开上升通道。A 股市场受委内瑞拉事件影响有限,关注开 门红预期及前期波动板块 ...

（原标题：欧佩克预计2026年市场将保持供需平衡） 根据 El Watan 网站12月13日报道，欧佩克（OPEC）在最新发布的月度报告中表示，在宏观经济风 险总体可控的背景下，2026年全球石油市场供需将基本匹配，整体运行保持稳定。 欧佩克指出，2026年欧佩克+原油需求预计平均为每日4300万桶，与上月预测持平，也接近当前产 量水平。数据显示，欧佩克+11月原油产量约为每日4306万桶，随着最新增产协议生效，产量小幅上 升，全球石油市场呈现出需求稳健、供给受控的态势。 在需求方面，全球石油需求预计将在2025年和2026年分别增长130万桶/日和140万桶/日，增量主要 来自非经合组织国家，尤其是亚洲、中东和非洲地区，可部分抵消发达经济体增长放缓的影响。 在宏观经济层面，欧佩克预计全球经济将继续保持稳健增长，2025年和2026年全球经济增速均为 3.1%。消费动能良好、贸易环境相对稳定以及主要经济体的财政和货币政策，为能源需求提供支撑。 ...

来源：现代物流报 由于季节性因素的影响，通常在年初时石油需求会有所下降，因此维持现有产量有助于避免供过于求的 局面，进而支撑油价稳定。 全球能源领域传出重磅消息。 石油输出国组织（欧佩克）当地时间11月30日发表声明说，欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的沙特阿拉伯、 俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿拉伯联合酋长国、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼8个主要产油国决定， 维持11月初制定的产量计划，即在2026年头三个月暂停增产。 （图源：千库网） 这样的"暂停增产"有哪些深层原因？对全球石油能源供应链将带来哪些连锁反应？中国作为石油消费大 国之一，对此应做哪些审视与应对？ 供需与利益的双重考量 欧佩克声明称，由于季节性因素，8个与会国家重申其2026年前3个月暂停增产步伐，产量与2025年12月 保持相同的决定。声明强调，当前全球经济预期相对平稳，石油市场基本面稳健。 经济学家余丰慧在接受现代物流报记者采访时表示，2026年头三个月暂停增产，产量与2025年12月保持 相同的深层原因，主要是基于对全球石油市场供需平衡的考量。 此外，全球经济预期相对平稳，石油市场的基本面稳健，这也为维持现有产量提供了依据。通过灵活调 整增产节奏， ...

为应对全球石油供应过剩和油价下跌的压力，8个OPEC+国家发布声明称，维持11月初制定的产量计划，并在2026年第一季度暂停增产。 同时，OPEC+国家就评估成员国各自最大石油产能的机制达成一致。这一评估机制在未来将有助于设定2027年的产油配额。 在此背景下，WTI 1月原油期货周一涨1.21%报每桶59.26美元。 OPEC发布声明称，欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的8个主要产油国决定，维持11月初制定的产量计划，决定在2026年1月、2月和3月暂停增产步伐，产 量与2025年12月保持相同。 | Country | | Required Production (kbd) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | | Algeria | 971 | 971 | 971 | | Iraq | 4,273 | 4,273 | 4,273 | | Kuwait | 2,580 | 2,580 | 2,580 | | Saudi Arabia | 10,103 | 10,103 | 10,103 | | UAE | 3,411 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its decision to pause oil production increases during the upcoming online meeting, reflecting a cautious approach amid signs of oversupply and weak prices [1][2]. Group 1: OPEC+ Meeting Insights - The meeting is anticipated to be straightforward, with ministers reaffirming the policy to suspend output hikes through the first quarter of 2026, primarily driven by Saudi Arabia and its partners [2]. - The pause in production is a response to rising global inventories that are outpacing demand, with Brent crude prices around $63 per barrel [2][4]. - OPEC+ plans to continue voluntary output cuts by key members like Saudi Arabia and Iraq until early 2026, while some members are reviewing long-term production capacity for potential increases later in the year [7][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The energy market is currently delicate, influenced by geopolitical factors such as U.S. President Donald Trump's push for a Ukraine peace deal, which could increase Russian oil supply [3]. - OPEC's analysis indicates that non-OPEC liquids production is expected to rise by approximately 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, while global demand is forecasted to increase by 1.6 million bpd to 106.2 million bpd, which may not be sufficient to tighten market balances [4]. - The International Energy Agency warns of a potential inventory increase of up to 5 million bpd in the first quarter of 2026, which could lead to a record glut and further pressure on prices [5]. Group 3: OPEC's Position - OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al Ghais has countered claims of oversupply, asserting that the market is expected to be balanced in 2026, despite some media misinterpretations [6]. - Market observers expect the upcoming meeting to confirm the pause in production increases and emphasize a wait-and-see strategy to maintain unity and flexibility amid slowing demand growth and rising supply [8].

该行在一份报告中称，预计2025年全球石油日需求量将增加 90 万桶，达到 1.055 亿桶;2026 年还将有类 似幅度的增长，随后在 2027 年将加速增长至 120 万桶。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通的分析师周一在一份报告中称，预计布伦特原油在 2026 年和 2027 年的平 均价格将在每桶 57 美元至 58 美元之间，而且除非实施减产措施，否则油价可能会跌至每桶 30 美元左 右。他们估计，从 2026 年 6 月开始，全球石油市场需要每天减产约 200 万桶。 该行预测，全球石油供应量将超过需求量。在 2025 年和 2026 年，石油供应量的增长速度将是需求量增 长速度的三倍，而到 2027 年，其增长速度将放缓至约为当前速度的三分之一。 摩根大通写道："我们预计市场将通过需求上升(由价格下降所推动)以及自愿和非自愿的减产相结合的 方式达到平衡。若不采取任何干预措施……2027 年的前景将变得更加黯淡，因为持续的过剩供应将使 布伦特原油均价达到 42 美元，到年底价格将跌至 30 多美元。" 摩根大通预计，到 2026 年和 2027 年，WTI原油的平均价格将在每桶 53 美元至 54 美 ...

Group 1 - OPEC unexpectedly adjusted market expectations, indicating a potential shift from "supply shortage" to "slight surplus" in the global oil market by 2026 [1] - OPEC forecasts global oil demand to reach 106.5 million barrels per day by 2026, while the demand for OPEC+ crude oil is projected at 43 million barrels per day [1] - OPEC+ production in October reached 43.02 million barrels per day, suggesting a supply surplus of approximately 20,000 barrels per day even if production levels are maintained [1] Group 2 - This prediction marks a significant contrast to OPEC's previous assessments, which anticipated a supply shortfall of 50,000 barrels per day last month and up to 700,000 barrels per day in September [1] - The abrupt shift from a "shortfall" to a "surplus" has been interpreted by the market as a strong bearish signal [1] - Following this news, international crude oil futures prices dropped sharply, with Brent crude falling nearly 4% to $62.57 per barrel, and WTI crude dropping over 4% to $58.30 per barrel [1] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the expectation of a balanced market is a key factor behind the decline in oil prices, with market participants placing more trust in OPEC's outlook compared to the IEA's optimistic projections [3] - Earlier this month, OPEC+ decided to increase production in December but subsequently paused further increases in the first quarter of 2026, indicating awareness of potential supply surplus risks [3] - Market sentiment remains fragile, with some analysts believing that new growth points in the global economy could boost oil demand, but the pessimistic outlook from OPEC has currently dominated market sentiment [3]

Group 1 - OPEC has revised its global oil market outlook from a deficit to a surplus due to higher-than-expected U.S. production and increased supply from OPEC [1] - The latest monthly report indicates that global oil production exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day, a shift from the previous month's estimate of a shortage of 400,000 barrels [1] - OPEC+ alliance's crude oil output last quarter surpassed the estimated required amount, with Saudi Arabia leading the alliance to accelerate the restoration of paused supplies to regain market share [1] Group 2 - This month, OPEC members have agreed to slow down their strategy of increasing production, with a consensus to pause further output increases until the first quarter of 2026 [1] - The organization cited seasonal demand slowdown as a reason for this decision, although many analysts warn of a significant oversupply [1] - OPEC's projections for 2026 indicate a surplus, which is more moderate compared to forecasts from other institutions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have been fluctuating between $60 and $70 per barrel, reflecting concerns over increased oil supply and geopolitical tensions [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - President Trump views the current oil price range as favorable, while oil producers see it as problematic, especially after sanctions were imposed on Russian oil companies [2][3] - The U.S. remains the largest oil producer, with the EIA raising its 2025 oil production forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3] - The IEA predicts a significant oversupply of 4 million barrels per day in the oil market next year, which could lead to a price drop [4][7] Group 2: Supply and Demand Forecasts - There is a divergence in demand growth forecasts, with the IEA estimating an increase of 700,000 barrels per day, while OPEC analysts predict nearly double that at 1.3 million barrels per day [7] - The use of "sanction-evading tankers" for transporting oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela has reduced market transparency, complicating supply assessments [8] Group 3: Production Strategies - OPEC+ has decided to slightly increase production targets by 137,000 barrels per day in December, with plans to pause adjustments in the first quarter of next year [9] - Major Western oil companies, including ExxonMobil and Chevron, expect stable oil prices in the short term and plan to expand production in the coming years [10][11] - ExxonMobil raised its production forecast for the Permian Basin to 1.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2025 [10] Group 4: Financial Viability and Price Sensitivity - Many OPEC countries require oil prices significantly above the current range to balance their national budgets, with Saudi Arabia's breakeven price at $92 per barrel [12] - The current price range may lead to a prolonged state of supply-demand imbalance unless prices fall below $60 per barrel [15] - A recent survey indicates that large shale producers can profit at prices between $26 and $45 per barrel, while new drilling is viable at $61 to $70 per barrel [16][17] Group 5: Potential Market Adjustments - If the IEA's oversupply scenario materializes, oil prices may need to drop to around $50 per barrel to force significant reductions in drilling activity and restore balance [19]

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling prices of its main crude oil grades for December aimed at the Asian market, amidst OPEC+'s plans to pause oil supply increases in early next year to address signs of market oversupply [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - Saudi Aramco has reduced the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for December by $1.20 per barrel, bringing the premium to the regional benchmark down to $1 per barrel [1] - The official selling prices for medium and heavy grades of crude oil aimed at the Asian market have been lowered by $1.40 per barrel, while the ultra-light and super-light grades have seen a reduction of $1.20 per barrel [1] Group 2: Market Context - OPEC+ announced on November 3 that after a slight increase in production in December, they will pause any further increases in the first quarter of next year to balance their market share strategies [1] - The oil market is currently experiencing seasonal demand weakness, and there is close monitoring of how U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil producers will impact supply [1] Group 3: Price Trends - Oil prices in the London market have fallen nearly 15% this year, trading below $65 per barrel [1] - Following the latest sanctions on the Russian oil industry, prices initially rebounded but have since returned to levels comparable to those before the sanctions were imposed by former President Trump [1]