如果说党派纷争让所谓真相难以客观，那么美媒的精心选择，则加剧了这种现象。打开福克斯新闻，克 林顿的照片被滚动播放，评论员们痛心疾首地批判民主党道德沦丧；但如果切换到美国有线电视新闻 网，主播们则讨论这是"右翼的阴谋"，并强调还有更多共和党人涉案未被公布。两党的支持者们早已身 处各自的"身份堡垒"中，在这种极化环境下，爱泼斯坦案的事实被政治口水淹没，正义的诉求被党派利 益绑架。当一个社会连对保护未成年人这种底线问题的讨论，都要先站队、先问是哪个党的嫌疑人时， 美国社会的道德共识已然瓦解。 把视线拉得更长远一些，爱泼斯坦案之所以成为党争工具，根本原因在于美国精英阶层的集体信用破 产。如今的美国政治，正处于民粹主义反噬精英阶层的历史周期中，无论是特朗普主义的崛起，还是桑 德斯运动的兴起，本质上都反映了民众对建制派精英的愤怒。由此，爱泼斯坦案更像是取之不尽的"黑 料库"。每当美国国内通胀高企、边境危机恶化、主政者支持率下降时，现任政府就会从中掏出一点东 西来转移矛盾，这其实是极其廉价且危险的治理策略。 爱泼斯坦案就像一面照妖镜，照出了美国政治极化下最丑陋的一面，也反映了美国民众对联邦机构的信 任降至冰点。一个没有公信 ...

选举结果公布后，特朗普在佛罗里达州棕榈滩的胜选演讲中宣布了他的胜利，而哈里斯也在华盛顿霍华 德大学承认败选，标志着这场持续多月的选战正式落下帷幕。2024年12月17日，美国各州及华盛顿特区 的选举人正式投票，确认特朗普当选，并为2025年1月6日的国会确认程序以及1月20日的总统宣誓仪式 铺平了道路。这一结果使得部分媒体此前关于特朗普可能因为选区计票问题丧失总统职位的猜测完全落 空，也揭开了美国政坛新一轮权力斗争和政治清算的序幕。 2024年美国大选的结果终于在11月揭晓，曾备受关注的特朗普能否重返白宫这一悬念也随之解开。根据 美国国家广播公司与美联社的最终统计，共和党候选人特朗普以312张选举人票的优势成功当选，而民 主党候选人哈里斯则仅获得226张选举人票，远未达到获胜所需的270票。普选层面，特朗普拿下了7464 万张选票，哈里斯的得票为7091万张，双方之间的差距再一次证明了选举人团制度下的胜负格局。 在选举过程中，特朗普团队集中火力在司法武器化和经济复苏等议题上，猛烈抨击拜登政府的通胀政策 和外交失策。而民主党则侧重于捍卫民主和推动社会公平等口号，力图吸引选民支持。特朗普在关键的 摇摆州，如亚利桑 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has ended after 43 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history, following the signing of a temporary funding bill by President Trump [1][2] - The shutdown has left a significant impact on economic data releases, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions [2][3] Economic Data Impact - During the shutdown, the Labor Statistics Bureau's data collection was affected, leading to delays in the release of key economic reports, including the October CPI data [2][3] - The market is currently experiencing a "data blackout" period, which may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions at its December meeting [2][3] Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process is complicated by the lack of complete data, increasing uncertainty regarding potential interest rate cuts [3][4] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have decreased from 70% to approximately 50% [4] Political Landscape and Future Risks - The temporary funding bill only extends government operations until January 30, suggesting a potential for another shutdown in the near future [5][6] - The ongoing political polarization in the U.S. may lead to repeated budgetary crises, impacting economic stability and investor confidence [5][6]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has ended after 43 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history, but the economic impact will take time to heal [1] - The release of key economic data, including the October CPI, has been delayed, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions [2][3] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in December has decreased significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut now around 50%, down from 70% [4] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The shutdown affected the Labor Statistics Bureau's ability to release timely employment and CPI data, leading to a "data blackout" period for the market [2][3] - The Federal Reserve may have to make policy decisions based on incomplete data, increasing uncertainty around its December meeting [3] - Historical patterns suggest that the recovery of economic data post-shutdown does not follow a fixed timeline, adding to the unpredictability [3] Group 2: Political Landscape - The temporary funding bill passed only extends government operations until January 30, indicating a potential for another shutdown in the near future [5] - The ongoing political polarization in the U.S. suggests that future negotiations on key issues like the debt ceiling may lead to further instability [6] - Frequent shutdowns could undermine investor confidence and the credibility of the U.S. dollar, posing long-term risks to the economy [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached a record 41 days, significantly impacting the economy and public welfare due to political polarization and governance crises [1][2][3] - The Senate has passed a procedural vote for a temporary funding bill, which is expected to provide funding for most federal agencies until January 30, 2026, but still requires House approval [2][3] - The ongoing political deadlock has led to widespread dissatisfaction among the public, with 61% believing the Republican policies prioritize party interests over public needs, and 68% feeling the Democrats place political games above welfare issues [3] Group 2 - The shutdown has directly affected federal employees, with at least 670,000 workers furloughed and 730,000 working without pay, leading to financial instability for many [4][5] - The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has halted benefits for over 40 million low-income individuals, including 12 million children and 3 million seniors, causing significant distress [4][5] - The aviation sector has seen a reduction of 10% in domestic flights at 40 major airports, with potential increases in cancellations and delays as the shutdown continues [5][6] Group 3 - The economic impact of the shutdown is escalating, with estimates suggesting a loss of approximately $7 billion for every four weeks of the shutdown, potentially lowering GDP growth from 2.1% to below 1.5% for the year [6][7] - The tourism industry has already lost about $5 billion in spending, with risks of further losses as the holiday season approaches [7] - Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, with 62% of respondents reducing non-essential spending due to the shutdown [7][8] Group 4 - The shutdown has exposed weaknesses in the U.S. economic governance system, leading to decreased trust in U.S. governance capabilities, with foreign investment inflow slowing by 5% [8] - Experts suggest that the budgetary process flaws are the root cause of the recurring shutdowns, which could have long-term implications for the U.S. economy's vitality [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate has advanced a temporary federal funding bill, likely to pass in the final vote, amid a record 41-day government shutdown impacting American livelihoods and the economy [1][2][3] - The funding bill aims to provide financial support to most federal agencies until January 30, 2026, and includes funding for the Department of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, and military construction projects [2][3] - The political deadlock is primarily due to disagreements over the timing of votes on healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, with both parties unable to reach a compromise [3] Group 2 - The government shutdown has directly affected federal employees, with at least 670,000 workers furloughed and approximately 730,000 working without pay, leading to financial distress for many [4] - Low-income groups relying on social safety nets are facing severe challenges, including the suspension of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which affects over 40 million people [5] - The aviation sector has seen a reduction in domestic flights, with over 10,000 flight delays and more than 3,200 cancellations reported, impacting travel plans as the holiday season approaches [6][7] Group 3 - The economic impact of the shutdown is significant, with estimates suggesting a loss of approximately $7 billion for every four weeks of the shutdown, potentially lowering GDP growth for the year [6][7] - Consumer confidence has declined, with the index dropping to its lowest level since June 2022, leading to reduced spending on non-essential items [7] - The shutdown has exposed weaknesses in the U.S. economic governance system, affecting both domestic and international confidence in U.S. political stability [8]

Government Shutdown Overview - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill to end a 40-day government shutdown, alleviating market concerns about economic impacts [2][3] - The bill will fund the government until January 30, 2026, and passed with a vote of 60 to 40 [3] - The bill still requires final approval from both the Senate and House before being sent to the President for signing [3] Political Dynamics - The shutdown was primarily caused by disputes over the Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance subsidies, with Democrats insisting on extending subsidies as a condition for funding [4][5] - Both parties made concessions, with Democrats yielding more ground than Republicans, indicating a shift in their negotiation stance [4][5] - The political polarization and weaponization of budget issues have increased, reflecting a broader trend in U.S. politics [5] Economic Impact - The uncertainty from the shutdown has negatively affected market sentiment, with key economic data releases delayed [6] - Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level in over three years, slightly above historical lows [6] - The shutdown has contributed to a decline in stock indices, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 3% in the past week, marking its worst weekly performance since April [6] Industry Effects - The airline industry has been significantly impacted, with major airlines forced to cancel thousands of flights due to the shutdown [7] - If the shutdown continues, the cancellation rate for flights during the Thanksgiving holiday could rise to 20% [7] - The economic growth for Q4 could be halved if the shutdown persists, with potential negative growth predicted if it disrupts holiday travel [7]

Government Shutdown Duration and Impact - As of November 9, the U.S. government has been shut down for 40 days, marking a historical record[2] - The shutdown is primarily due to political polarization, with both parties believing it benefits them[2] - It is expected that the government will remain closed for at least another 1-2 weeks, likely reopening before Thanksgiving (November 27)[3] Economic and Employment Effects - The shutdown has resulted in at least 670,000 federal employees being furloughed and approximately 730,000 working without pay[10] - If the shutdown continues until December 1, the total unpaid wages could reach approximately $21 billion[10] - The impact on GDP growth for Q4 2025 is projected to be a reduction of over 1 percentage point, with a rebound expected in Q1 2026[5] Data Release Delays - Key economic data for September and October, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, have been delayed due to the shutdown[4] - If the government reopens in 1-2 weeks, some data may be released shortly thereafter, but the timing remains uncertain[19] - October non-farm payroll data may be published alongside November data in early December[20] Market and Policy Implications - The shutdown has led to a rise in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance by $62.7 billion, which may tighten liquidity marginally[36] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates once in December 2025 and potentially 1-2 more times in June 2026[37] - The reopening of the government is anticipated to alleviate some liquidity pressures in the market[36]

Election Results - The Democratic Party achieved significant victories in local elections, including New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, which are traditionally Democratic strongholds[4] - The election results may not indicate a nationwide trend due to the polarized political climate in the U.S., with Trump's policies potentially increasing Democratic voter turnout[12] Supreme Court Proceedings - The U.S. Supreme Court began hearings on the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff policies, with conservative justices expressing skepticism about the president's authority to impose large-scale tariffs[13] - The court's decision could take weeks to months, providing the Trump administration time to refine its tariff policies[14] Economic Implications - The ongoing government shutdown, which has reached a historic duration, is contributing to market instability and a lack of official economic data, leading to declines in major U.S. stock indices[12] - Economic issues are expected to become central in the upcoming midterm elections, aligning with the administration's need to stabilize the economy before the elections[11] Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine situation and tensions in the Middle East, are expected to persist, with potential impacts on U.S. foreign policy and trade[16][17] - The U.S. is focusing on strategic industries in its tariff policies, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals[15] Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced declines of 1.2% and 1.6% respectively, attributed to the government shutdown and lack of market guidance[5] - The Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index showed positive performance, with increases of 1.3% and 0.8% respectively, indicating regional market resilience[5]

Economic Impact - The ongoing government shutdown has the potential to negatively impact overall economic growth, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a decrease in the annual GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4 2023, translating to a loss of $7 billion to $14 billion depending on the duration of the shutdown [4][6] - Consumer confidence is expected to be directly affected, as federal employees face delayed wages and contractors experience payment delays, which could impact the traditional holiday shopping season if the shutdown persists [4][6] - The shutdown has already caused significant disruptions in various sectors, including aviation, with over 3.2 million travelers affected by flight delays or cancellations since the shutdown began [3][4] Aviation Sector - Approximately half of the major air traffic control facilities in the U.S. are experiencing staffing shortages, particularly in the New York area where nearly 90% of air traffic controllers are absent [3] - The Department of Transportation has warned that if the shutdown continues, it may have to close certain airspaces due to staffing and safety pressures, potentially leading to longer wait times at airports during the busy Thanksgiving travel season [3][4] Healthcare and Food Assistance - The shutdown has halted the distribution of funds for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, affecting over 40 million Americans, with emergency funds being utilized to cover only part of the month's assistance [3][4] - The inability to pass a temporary funding bill has led to significant increases in health insurance premiums, with estimates suggesting an additional $1,000 per year for individuals without government subsidies [2][4] Political Stalemate - The political deadlock between the Republican and Democratic parties continues, with no clear resolution in sight, as both sides appear to be using the shutdown as a political tool rather than seeking a compromise [7][8] - Recent attempts to advance a temporary funding bill have failed to secure the necessary votes, indicating a deepening divide and a lack of urgency to resolve the crisis [7][8]