2025.09. 25 本文字数：1925，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 在9月30日美国政府可能再次陷入停摆之际，美国总统特朗普拒绝与民主党人会面。同时，白宫管理 和预算办公室在当地时间周三（24日），给联邦机构发送的备忘录中，要求后者在政府可能再次关 门的情况下，甄别那些无法再获得资金的项目，并对项目和相关人员进行永久裁撤而非仅仅在政府关 门期间短暂离职。 美国政府再面临停摆风险 若美国政府9月30日停摆，将是美国政府自1981年以来第15次关门。以往政府停摆期间，部分联邦 机构被迫停摆，联邦雇员被迫无薪休假，一些公共服务与政府合同付款会中断，市场与公众也会受到 连锁冲击。 美国的财政问题早已非一朝一夕。保德信固定收益副主席、首席全球经济学家兼全球宏观经济研究主 管西恩（Daleep Singh）在上周美联储降息且偏"鸽派"后，对一财记者表达了对于美国经济、通 胀、财政前景的忧虑。"尽管美国经济增长高于趋势、财政政策宽松且通胀上升，但美联储仍采取宽 松的货币政策。美联储最新经济预测摘要显示，美联储将以循序渐进的方式迈向中性利率，预计约为 3%。"然而，他称，"最近一次美联储会议展示了后鲍 ...

若9月30日再次停摆，将是美国政府自1981年以来第15次停摆。 在9月30日美国政府可能再次陷入停摆之际，美国总统特朗普拒绝与民主党人会面。同时，白宫管理和预算办公室 在当地时间周三（24日），给联邦机构发送的备忘录中，要求后者在政府可能再次关门的情况下，甄别那些无法 再获得资金的项目，并对项目和相关人员进行永久裁撤而非仅仅在政府关门期间短暂离职。 美国的财政问题早已非一朝一夕。保德信固定收益副主席、首席全球经济学家兼全球宏观经济研究主管西恩 （Daleep Singh）在上周美联储降息且偏"鸽派"后，对一财记者表达了对于美国经济、通胀、财政前景的忧 虑。"尽管美国经济增长高于趋势、财政政策宽松且通胀上升，但美联储仍采取宽松的货币政策。美联储最新经济 预测摘要显示，美联储将以循序渐进的方式迈向中性利率，预计约为3%。"然而，他称，"最近一次美联储会议展 示了后鲍威尔时代应对机制的潜在变动，出现了一个较低和偏离的点阵图：2025年约为2.75%，2027年则低于 2.5%。该偏低预测被认为来自新任美联储理事米兰（Stephen Miran），他此次赞成降息50个基点。" 美国政府再面临停摆风险 当地时间周三， ...

Group 1: Short-term Fiscal Relief - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed on July 4, 2025, raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the U.S. to continue its debt-driven economic growth model[2] - Recent tariff agreements with major economies are expected to generate approximately $2.1 trillion in additional tariff revenue over the next decade, alleviating some fiscal concerns[2] - The Act is projected to boost U.S. GDP by 0.15% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with a long-term GDP expansion of 1.2%[8] Group 2: Long-term Concerns - U.S. federal debt reached $36.2 trillion by Q1 2025, exceeding 120% of GDP, with the "Big and Beautiful" Act expected to add an additional $3.4 trillion to the debt over the next decade[25] - Interest payments are projected to rise from 3.2% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% by 2035, creating a significant fiscal burden[28] - The reliance on tariffs, which increased the average effective tariff rate to 11.4%, may lead to a decrease in consumer purchasing power and demand for non-essential imports, potentially limiting future tariff revenue growth[18] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Soft Power - The U.S. government's unilateral policies have diminished its international credibility, affecting its global leadership role[28] - Traditional alliances are strained due to aggressive tariff policies and withdrawal from multilateral agreements, leading allies to reconsider their defense spending and reliance on the U.S.[28] - The "Big and Beautiful" Act and tariff policies are contributing to increased income inequality within the U.S., potentially undermining domestic political stability[19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the temporary alleviation of fiscal pressure faced by the Trump administration through various unconventional policy measures, while highlighting the potential long-term costs to U.S. soft power and global influence [1][4][24]. Group 1: Fiscal Measures and Their Impacts - The "Big and Beautiful" Act was signed into law, extending tax cuts and raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the U.S. to continue its reliance on debt issuance for short-term economic growth [7][8]. - The Act is expected to stimulate economic growth, with projections indicating a GDP increase of 0.15% and 1.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [8]. - Tariff revenues are projected to rise significantly, with an estimated additional $2.1 trillion in tariff income over the next decade, although this may be reduced to $1.4 trillion when considering negative economic impacts [12][15]. Group 2: International Relations and Soft Power - Recent agreements with major economies like Europe, Japan, and South Korea are expected to enhance external revenue expectations, although the actual implementation remains uncertain [2][13]. - The U.S. has faced a decline in international credibility due to unilateral policies and inconsistent agreements, which may weaken its negotiating power in global affairs [4][24]. - Traditional alliances are strained, as the "America First" policy has led to skepticism among allies regarding U.S. reliability, prompting them to reconsider their defense strategies [25][24]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Challenges - Despite short-term relief, the U.S. faces significant long-term fiscal challenges, with federal debt exceeding $36.2 trillion, representing over 120% of GDP [23]. - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is projected to increase U.S. debt by an additional $3.4 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating the existing debt problem [23]. - Rising interest payments are becoming a substantial burden on the federal budget, with projections indicating that interest expenses will rise from 3.2% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% by 2035 [23].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve and potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Potential Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair**: The Trump administration is considering Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller as potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, all of whom are Republicans with economic backgrounds and prior experience at the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. 2. **Divergent Economic Outlooks**: The three candidates have differing views on the U.S. economic outlook. Hassett is the most optimistic, believing Trump's policies will drive growth without rising inflation. Warsh sees the economy as fundamentally strong, while Waller aligns with Federal Reserve officials, indicating a moderate economic slowdown [5]. 3. **Policy Preferences on Interest Rates**: All three candidates generally favor continued interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. Hassett is the most dovish, advocating for rate cuts to stimulate growth, while Warsh takes a hawkish stance, suggesting that balance sheet reduction should precede rate cuts [6][7]. 4. **Impact of Fiscal Policy on Bond Yields**: U.S. fiscal issues, particularly the proposed tax cuts, are expected to significantly increase the net deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade, contributing to high U.S. Treasury yields [8]. 5. **Historical Concerns on Fiscal Expansion**: Past Federal Reserve Chairs have expressed concerns about fiscal sustainability, emphasizing the need for budget balance and prioritizing anti-inflation goals during non-crisis periods [9]. 6. **Candidates' Views on Fiscal Deficits**: Warsh and Waller believe that excessive fiscal expansion is unsustainable, but they assert that debt repayment is not the Federal Reserve's responsibility. Hassett, due to his current role in the White House, has been less vocal on monetary policy [10]. 7. **Upcoming Changes in Monetary Policy Framework**: The Federal Reserve is expected to revise its monetary policy framework in late summer 2025, potentially reverting to a 2% inflation target, which could influence future rate cuts [11][18]. 8. **Differences in Current Economic Environment**: The current economic environment differs from that of 2020, with higher interest rates and elevated long-term inflation expectations, which may affect the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [13][15]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Independence of the Federal Reserve**: Regardless of who becomes the next Chair, maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve is likely to remain a priority for the candidates [10]. 2. **Potential Economic Consequences of Policy Decisions**: Continuing to follow an average inflation target could lead to unnecessary cooling of the job market, potentially increasing unemployment rates [14][17]. 3. **Flexibility in Monetary Policy Operations**: The current higher interest rate environment provides policymakers with greater flexibility in monetary policy operations compared to the previous low-rate environment [16].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Developments - The potential for a US-Canada trade agreement may be reached next week, with Canada prepared to retaliate if negotiations fail [2] - EU trade officials indicate that negotiations with the US are progressing in the right direction [2] - The UK Prime Minister expresses confidence in reducing US tariffs in a short timeframe [2] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - The US ADP employment report for May shows an increase of 37,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000 [3] - The ISM non-manufacturing index for May drops to 49.9, indicating contraction for the first time in nearly a year, down from 51.6 [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 95.6%, with a 4.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Galaxy Futures suggests that the cooling US economy is boosting precious metals, which are expected to maintain a strong position in the short term [4] - The weak ADP data and ISM services PMI have diminished market confidence in the US economic outlook, leading to renewed expectations for Fed rate cuts [4] - Concerns over the US fiscal situation, highlighted by Trump's comments on the debt ceiling and the CBO's deficit projections, are providing support for precious metals [4]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs COO Waldron highlighted the "significant resilience" of the U.S. economy and consumers [1] - The bond market has correctly shifted its focus towards U.S. fiscal issues [1] Group 1 - The U.S. economy is demonstrating strong performance despite challenges [1] - Consumer behavior reflects a robust capacity to withstand economic pressures [1] - The bond market's attention to fiscal matters indicates a shift in investor sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has correctly shifted its focus to U.S. fiscal issues, with long-term interest rates posing the greatest risk rather than tariffs [1] Group 1 - The primary concern in the current market environment is the long-term interest rates, which are seen as a significant risk factor [1] - The shift in focus from tariffs to fiscal issues indicates a broader concern regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [1]

Group 1 - The financial market is facing unprecedented challenges with U.S. assets, as the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries has surpassed 5%, and demand for 20-year Treasuries has significantly declined [1][4] - The U.S. government debt has exceeded $36 trillion, and the fiscal deficit is rapidly expanding, with the tax cut plan proposed by the Trump administration expected to reduce taxes by over $4 trillion over the next decade, further increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio from 98% to 125% [3][4] - The surge in U.S. Treasury yields has caused notable impacts on global financial markets, with major U.S. stock indices experiencing their largest declines in a month, and the 20-year Treasury yield reaching 5.1% [4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has shifted to a bullish outlook on U.S. assets, upgrading U.S. stocks and Treasuries to "overweight," citing relative advantages amid a slowing global economy [5] - The firm anticipates that U.S. corporate earnings will soon hit a bottom, and easing inflation along with potential further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will support U.S. equities [5] - Morgan Stanley projects the S&P 500 index to reach 6,500 points by Q2 2026, while forecasting a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 3.45% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Buffett expressed concerns about U.S. fiscal issues, noting that they are not unique to the U.S. [1] Group 1 - Buffett stated that Berkshire Hathaway will not take actions to improve quarterly or annual financial reports at the expense of holding worthless currency assets [1] - He emphasized the low cost of borrowing in yen, indicating a different situation in Japan compared to the U.S. [1]