1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The LLDPE and PP主力 contracts have strong disk performance, the Iranian situation affects oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. Trump postponed the ultimatum to attack Iranian power plants, causing a sharp decline in external crude oil prices at night. In terms of supply and demand, the spring plowing has started, and the demand for mulch film is good, but high - priced raw materials have led to a wait - and - see attitude among enterprises for inventory replenishment. The packaging film is mainly based on rigid demand due to price increases, and the start - up rate and orders of the pipe industry are both low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8850 (+550), and the fundamentals are overall bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 673, and the premium/discount ratio is - 7.1%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.3 million tons (- 0.2), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract has a strong disk performance. The Iranian situation affects oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that LLDPE will show a volatile trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil [6] - **Negative Factors**: Geopolitical factors [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. Trump postponed the ultimatum to attack Iranian power plants, causing a sharp decline in external crude oil prices at night. In terms of supply and demand, multiple PDH units were shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises have low production profit and low willingness to start production. The start - up rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream customers are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 9350 (+600), and the fundamentals are overall bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 443, and the premium/discount ratio is - 4.5%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.6 million tons (- 6.1), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract has a strong disk performance. The Iranian situation affects oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil [8] - **Negative Factors**: Geopolitical factors and international policy games [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data | Product | Spot Delivery Price (Change) | Main Contract Price (Change) | Basis (Change) | Warehouse Receipt (Change) | Comprehensive Factory Inventory (Change) | Social Inventory (Change) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | LLDPE | 8850 (+550) | 05 contract: 9523 (+705) | - 673 (- 155) | 6371 (- 30) | 62.3 (0.0) | 61.9 (0.0) | | PP | 9350 (+600) | 05 contract: 9793 (+774) | - 443 (- 174) | 15927 (- 124) | 59.6 (0.0) | 30.7 (0.0) | [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an increasing trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E will increase by 20.5% compared with 2024 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E will increase by 11.0% compared with 2024 [15]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Both LLDPE and PP are expected to have a volatile trend today due to cost support from geopolitical factors and weak downstream demand [4][7] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range [4] - Tensions in the Middle East have led to high - level fluctuations in crude oil prices, providing cost support for polyolefins [4] - Trump's new tariff policy may affect product exports [4] - Market demand expectations may increase due to possible stimulus policies during the Two Sessions in March and Sino - US negotiations [4] - Most agricultural film enterprises have not resumed work, packaging film enterprises are gradually resuming work at a low load, and pipe enterprises' resumption of work is restricted by weather [4] Key Data - The spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 6600 (-50) [4] - The basis of LLDPE 2605 contract is -68, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.0%, indicating a bearish signal [4] - PE comprehensive inventory is 62.7 tons (+25.9), neutral [4] - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, neutral [4] - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] Outlook - The LLDPE main contract is expected to rebound at the opening, with cost support from geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, neutral inventory, and weak downstream demand, so it is expected to be volatile today [4] Factors - Bullish factors: cost support and rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical premiums [6] - Bearish factors: weak downstream demand [6] - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range [7] - Crude oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical factors support polyolefin costs [7] - Trump's new tariff policy may affect product exports [7] - Market demand expectations may increase due to possible stimulus policies during the Two Sessions in March and Sino - US negotiations [7] - The resumption of work in the plastic weaving industry is slow, while the BOPP industry has a relatively fast resumption of work but faces some finished - product inventory pressure [7] Key Data - The spot price of PP delivery product is 6680 (+0) [7] - The basis of PP 2605 contract is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.1%, neutral [7] - PP comprehensive inventory is 74 tons (+34.9), neutral [7] - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, neutral [7] - The net position of the PP main contract is long, and long positions are decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [7] Outlook - The PP main contract is expected to rebound at the opening, with cost support from geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, neutral inventory, and weak downstream demand, so it is expected to be volatile today [7] Factors - Bullish factors: cost support and rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical premiums [8] - Bearish factors: weak downstream demand [8] - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [8] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a significant increase of 20.5% expected in 2025E [14] - The import dependence of polyethylene has shown a downward trend in recent years [14] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has been increasing, with an expected increase of 11.0% in 2025E [16] - The import dependence of polypropylene has also shown a downward trend [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today. The geopolitical situation is disturbing oil prices, providing strong cost support, but downstream demand has not recovered yet [4][7] - The main logic for both LLDPE and PP is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal changes are sensitive. The main risk points are significant oil price fluctuations and international policy games [6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. The escalation of the Middle East US - Iran situation has led to rising oil prices, providing cost support for polyolefins. Trump's new import tariff policy may affect product exports. Domestically, possible stimulus policies during the Two Sessions in March and Sino - US negotiations before Trump's visit may increase market demand expectations. In terms of supply and demand, most agricultural film enterprises have not resumed work, packaging film enterprises are gradually resuming work at a low load, and pipe production is still restricted by weather. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6640 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2605 contract basis is - 180, with a premium - discount ratio of - 2.6%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 36.7 tons (-0), which is bullish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk is volatile, and it is expected to rebound at the opening. Due to geopolitical factors disturbing oil prices, cost support is strong, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand has not recovered. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4] - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and rising oil prices due to geopolitical premiums; bearish factor is weak downstream demand [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. Oil price increases support polyolefin costs. Trump's new tariff policy may affect exports. Domestically, relevant policies may increase demand expectations. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of work in the plastic weaving industry is slow, while the bopp industry has a relatively fast resumption of work but faces some finished - product inventory pressure. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6680 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The PP 2605 contract basis is - 66, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 39.1 tons (-0), which is bullish [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk is volatile, and it is expected to rebound at the opening. Geopolitical factors disturb oil prices, providing strong cost support, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand has not recovered. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7] - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and rising oil prices due to geopolitical premiums; bearish factor is weak downstream demand [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: February 12, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. Their prices are expected to fluctuate today due to cost support from the suspension of OPEC's Q1 production increase and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, as well as weak downstream demand near the Spring Festival [4][7] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Crude oil is in a volatile range, and polyolefins follow suit. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have stopped work, with few orders. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6600 (unchanged) [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -187, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.8%, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 36.7 tons (down 3.6 tons), indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a neutral signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand [6] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and the supply-demand margin is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and pipe demand has also been affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery spot price is 6650 (unchanged) [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -43, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.6%, indicating a bearish signal [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 39.1 tons (down 2.5 tons), indicating a bullish signal [7] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a bullish signal [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [8] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand [8] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and the supply-demand margin is sensitive [8] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6600 (unchanged), the 05 contract price is 6787 (up 12), the basis is -187 (down 12), the warehouse receipt is 9428 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 36.7 tons (down 3.6 tons), and the PE social inventory is 50.8 tons (up 2.3 tons) [9] - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6650 (unchanged), the 05 contract price is 6693 (up 5), the basis is -43 (down 5), the warehouse receipt is 17294 (up 26), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 39.1 tons (down 2.5 tons), and the PP social inventory is 27.1 tons (up 0.5 tons) [9] Supply-Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: February 2, 2026 - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, while industrial inventories are neutral [4][7] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Geopolitical disturbances in Iran have led to a strong crude oil trend, driving up the polyolefin market. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for agricultural films and packaging films is weak. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6940 (+60), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PE inventory is 348,000 tons (-31,000), indicating a bullish signal [4] Market Analysis - The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal [4] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: cost support and crude oil rebound - Bearish factors: weak downstream demand year-on-year - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Geopolitical disturbances in Iran have led to a strong crude oil trend, driving up the polyolefin market. PDH device maintenance is frequent. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current PP delivery spot price is 6750 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [7] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PP inventory is 401,000 tons (-32,000), indicating a bullish signal [7] Market Analysis - The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal [7] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: cost support and crude oil rebound - Bearish factors: off-season downstream demand - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [9] Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot delivery price is 6940 (+60), and the 05 contract price is 7014 (-35) - PP: The spot delivery price is 6750 (+0), and the 05 contract price is 6824 (-46) [10] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 9379 (-19), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 348,000 tons - PP: The warehouse receipt is 17236 (0), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 401,000 tons [10] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The US cancelled some restrictions on Chinese goods and suspended the 301 investigation on China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year. OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from supply - demand imbalance to oversupply in November 12, causing oil prices to fall. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but it starts to decline in some areas, and the demand for other films is mainly based on rigid needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 6860 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. Basis - The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is 47, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), which is bearish [4]. Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. Main Position - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals are in oversupply, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues but starts to decline in some areas, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices; the Sino - US talks have reached a phased easing [5]. - Bearish factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year; there will be many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The peak season for plastic weaving is approaching the end, while the demand for pipes is picking up. The current spot price of PP delivery product is 6420 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. Basis - The basis of PP 2601 contract is - 14, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), which is neutral [6]. Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. Main Position - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals are in oversupply, the peak season for plastic weaving is approaching the end, and the demand for pipes is picking up, with a moderately high industrial inventory [6]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices; the Sino - US talks have reached a phased easing [7]. - Bearish factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year; there will be many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 6860 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6835 (2), etc. [8] - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6420 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6400 (-34), etc. [8] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 12017 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), etc. [8] - PP: The warehouse receipt is 15733 (-29), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), etc. [8] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the capacity in 2018 was 1869.5, and it increased to 4319.5 in 2025E with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. For example, the capacity in 2018 was 2245.5, and it is expected to reach 4906 in 2025E with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 5, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment, and the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side of polyolefins. However, factors such as the rebound of oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the staged easing of Sino - US relations have an impact on the market. It is expected that the PE and PP markets will fluctuate today [4][6]. Summary by Directory LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, a 0.8 - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side. The demand in the agricultural film peak season continues, and the start - up rate remains high, while the restocking of other film types is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6880 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 1, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 46.6 million tons (-9.9), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates on the disk. After the Sino - US summit in Busan and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil, crude oil has rebounded. With the continued demand in the agricultural film peak season and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the staged easing of Sino - US relations; negative factors include weak demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic environment shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment, and the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 10, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.5 million tons (-4.3), showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates on the disk. After the Sino - US summit in Busan and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil, crude oil has rebounded. With the support of downstream peak - season demand and a neutral - to - high industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the staged easing of Sino - US relations; negative factors include weak demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6880 (-30), and the price of the 01 contract is 6879 (-9); the spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (0), and the price of the 01 contract is 6560 (-16) [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The LLDPE warehouse receipt is 12675 (0), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 46.6 million tons (0); the PP warehouse receipt is 14569 (0), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 59.5 million tons (0) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. The production capacity growth rate was relatively high in 2020 (17.8%) and 2025E (20.5%). The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity growth rate was relatively high in 2020 (15.5%) and 2023 (14.1%). The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - LLDPE is expected to trade in a range today, with the plastic main contract fluctuating, the Sino-US negotiation reaching a preliminary consensus, Russian oil facing new sanctions leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the peak season demand for agricultural films continuing, and the industrial inventory at a neutral level [4] - PP is also expected to trade in a range today, with the main contract fluctuating, the Sino-US negotiation reaching a preliminary consensus, Russian oil facing new sanctions leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and downstream peak season demand providing support [6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. On October 30, Sino-US leaders met, the US canceled a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended a 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year, and China adjusted countermeasures accordingly. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply and demand side, the peak season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed stocking and production has declined. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6990 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 22, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 466,000 tons (-114,000), neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract has decreased, bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade in a range today [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. On October 30, Sino-US leaders met, the US canceled a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended a 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year, and China adjusted countermeasures accordingly. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply and demand side, the demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -21, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 595,000 tons (-84,000), neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to trade in a range today [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: Detailed data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects from 2018 to 2025E are provided, showing trends in capacity growth, production, and consumption [13] - **Polypropylene**: Similar to polyethylene, detailed data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects from 2018 to 2025E are provided, showing trends in capacity growth, production, and consumption [15] Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Spot and futures prices and their changes for LLDPE and PP are provided, including prices in different regions, main contracts, and import prices [8] - **Inventory Data**: Inventory data for LLDPE and PP, including warehouse receipts and comprehensive factory and social inventories, are provided [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend sideways to the upside today due to factors such as the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US negotiations, new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the continuation of peak-season demand for agricultural films, and neutral industrial inventories [4] - PP is also expected to trend sideways to the upside today, supported by the same factors as LLDPE and the peak-season demand from downstream industries [6] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The peak-season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production starts, while production starts for other films have declined after inventory replenishment. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7040 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 55, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 565,000 tons (-15,000), indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US talks [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with limited support from crude oil on the cost side. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -27, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, indicating a neutral signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 639,000 tons (-40,000), indicating a neutral signal [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US talks [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, with expectations of a volatile market due to factors such as OPEC's continuous production increase, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish, and its market is expected to be volatile considering factors like weak downstream demand and OPEC's production increase [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, with production increasing for the fourth consecutive month. The agricultural film is in the off - season, packaging film downstream is weak, and new production capacity pressure remains. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -35, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.5%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by OPEC's production increase, off - season demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new production capacity release and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [6]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show a contraction range for PMI, and OPEC is increasing production. The downstream demand for PP is in the off - season, with weak demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7140 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 120, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.7%, considered bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 tons (-1.5), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; the bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].