[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 债券专题报告 如何看待美国菲利普斯曲线的异化？ 海外宏观研究笔记（三） 报告日期： 2025-07-25 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 什么是菲利普斯曲线，有哪些历代更迭？ 菲利普斯曲线是用于描述失业率与通胀关系的重要理论，对美联储货币政策 具备一定解释力。2012 年美联储发布《长期目标和货币政策战略声明》，明 确以菲利普斯曲线为理论依据，设定 2%的通胀目标，并关注失业率与自然失 业率的偏差。2020 年该框架进行修订，引入平均通胀目标制（允许通胀在一 段时间内适度高于 2%），并更关注就业的广度和深度。当前菲利普斯曲线仍 是美联储的重要分析工具。 我们通过对菲利普斯曲线理论历代版本的回溯，或能解释当前美联储的政策 困 ...

Core Insights - The event "Autumn Le Seed Industry 2025-2026 Market Launch for Yu Bei Region" was successfully held in Puyang County, attracting over 300 channel merchants and large-scale growers despite adverse weather conditions [1] - The corn variety "Yuhuangjin AY868" demonstrated excellent characteristics under challenging conditions, maintaining high yield and quality, which has garnered positive feedback from participants [3][5] Group 1: Product Performance - The field observation session highlighted the superior performance of Yuhuangjin AY868, which showed no empty grains and uniform ear size, even with a 40% reduction in rainfall compared to previous years [3] - The variety's advanced breeding technology provides traits such as drought resistance and adaptability, ensuring high yields despite unfavorable weather [5] Group 2: Market Response - The event saw a strong market response, with over 7,000 bags of Yuhuangjin AY868 ordered on-site, indicating robust confidence among farmers and agents [6] - Testimonials from growers emphasized the variety's excellent growth and resistance to pests, reinforcing its reputation as a reliable choice for high and stable yields [6] Group 3: Future Development - The regional manager of Autumn Le Seed Industry expressed commitment to providing comprehensive technical support and after-sales service to enhance the corn industry in Yu Bei [8] - The successful launch and field demonstration have significantly increased the market awareness of Yuhuangjin AY868, positioning it as a strong support for corn cultivation in the region [8]

张同作介绍，这是国内外首个基于多物种、大规模宏基因组分析构建的鹿科动物肠道微生物资源 库，为微生物资源利用以及濒危物种保护提供了坚实的数据基础。 张同作介绍，通过系统发育和共进化分析发现，肠道微生物与宿主在长期演化过程中形成了稳定的 互利关系。更为关键的是，通过比较宏基因组分析，研究人员发现高原鹿科动物的肠道微生物在能量代 谢与碳水化合物活性酶通路上具有显著的适应性增强，其相关功能基因的相对丰度显著高于平原鹿类。 （原载于《科技日报》 2025-07-16 第06版） 记者7月14日从中国科学院西北高原生物研究所获悉，该所动物生态与资源保护研究团队首次构建 了涵盖多个物种的鹿科动物肠道宏基因组图谱，建立了当前最为系统、全面的鹿科动物肠道微生物组数 据库。相关研究成果日前发表于学术期刊《BMC生物学》。 青藏高原具有极端低氧、低温以及营养匮乏等特殊环境条件，对野生动物的生存构成了严峻挑战。 肠道微生物作为宿主适应外部环境的重要"隐形器官"，在能量代谢、营养吸收、免疫调节等方面发挥着 关键作用。 中国科学院西北高原生物研究所动物生态与资源保护研究团队研究员张同作介绍，研究团队采集了 青藏高原地区多种鹿科动物的粪便 ...

虽入盛夏，海拔4000米的青藏高原腹地仍寒风习习。一簇蓝紫色的花朵正迎风绽放，这是"高山牡 丹"绿绒蒿家族的一员——久治绿绒蒿，其名称源于发现地青海省果洛藏族自治州久治县。 7月3日，结束久治县野外考察后，中国科学院西北高原生物研究所青藏高原植物适应与进化学科团 组的科研人员，风尘仆仆赶回所内。 "久治绿绒蒿数量仅1000余株，比大熊猫数量还稀少，处于濒危状态，是国家二级保护野生植 物。"该学科团组科研助理余静雅对科技日报记者说。 "学科团组不仅统计了久治绿绒蒿的数量，还开展了样地监测。"余静雅告诉记者，久治绿绒蒿分布 区域狭窄，现有气象数据精度难以满足研究需求。学科团组通过监测气象和土壤数据，试图拿到能完整 体现其生境的数据。 回到研究所，学科团组马不停蹄地开展种群测序。"我们重点关注种群的遗传负荷、有害突变等信 息，这些信息影响了久治绿绒蒿的遗传多样性。"余静雅说。 青藏高原生物资源独特，是研究物种适应性进化、物种多样性及物种对第四纪冰期响应等科学问题 的最理想区域。久治绿绒蒿是极小种群野生植物的代表，此类植物一般分布地域狭窄，种群和个体数量 低于稳定存活界限，并随时有灭绝风险。 与久治绿绒蒿"同病相怜" ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the leadership of Zhengya in exploring international development opportunities in the Chinese orthodontics industry, particularly in the invisible orthodontics market traditionally dominated by Western brands [1] - The recognition of Professor Shen Gang's contributions at the DGAO conference and the subsequent coverage in the Journal of Aligner Orthodontics (JAO) underscores the growing influence of Chinese orthodontic scholars in global academic exchanges [1][4] Group 1 - JAO's report emphasizes the significance of Professor Shen Gang's presentation on the "Three Deep Malocclusion Diagnosis Model," detailing its structural and functional aspects, and defining relevant indications and case classifications [1] - The article references a 2018 publication by Professor Shen in Shanghai Journal of Stomatology, discussing the biological mechanism of condylar adaptive remodeling, which is fundamental to the non-surgical advancement of the mandible using the S8-SGTB device [2] - The S8-SGTB device is primarily used for physiological mandibular retrusion cases, while the S8-SGHB focuses on joint-related malocclusions, each with distinct clinical applications [3] Group 2 - Professor Shen proposes a phased treatment strategy for adult patients facing challenges with "Three Deep Malocclusion," suggesting the use of an invisible aligner with posterior bite blocks to facilitate mandibular advancement and promote adaptive bone deposition [3] - The JAO's focus on Professor Shen's work not only recognizes his individual achievements but also reflects the enhanced discourse power of the Chinese invisible orthodontics research system on the international academic stage [4]

人工智能技术路线、应用场景的变数影响人工智能立法的体例结构和具体制度设计，是立法面临的重要 挑战 在人工智能法律治理中引入适应性治理理念，容纳技术发展带来的高度不确定性与未知前景，统筹发展 和安全，立足人工智能多重属性，实现法律治理路径拓展 文 | 张凌寒 人工智能技术正引领新一轮科技革命和产业变革，成为国家战略竞争的重要领域。如何构建科学有效的 法律治理体系，既促进创新发展又防范安全风险，是当前亟待关注的重要课题。 当前，我国已初步形成人工智能法律治理体系，但仍面临传统治理模式适应性不足、责任认定与数据治 理困境等挑战。 未来，应逐步构建体系化法律治理框架，构建适应性治理框架，推进高位阶立法与配套法律体系形成， 完善责任分配与数据治理机制，加强国际合作与全球治理参与，推动人工智能在法治轨道上健康可持续 发展。 初步探索 经过多年探索，我国已初步构建起涵盖多层次、多维度的人工智能法律框架。 在规范层面，我国陆续出台《互联网信息服务深度合成管理规定》《生成式人工智能服务管理暂行办 法》等前沿规范，发布《新一代人工智能伦理规范》《人工智能安全治理框架》等制度文件，在全球范 围内率先开展人工智能规范探索。这些规范的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese lychee industry is experiencing a significant decline in production for 2024, with a total output of 1.7279 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 47%. However, favorable climatic conditions and good flowering rates in early 2025 are expected to lead to a substantial recovery in production, projected to reach 3.6504 million tons, an increase of 111.26% year-on-year [1][18]. Industry Overview - Lychee is a subtropical fruit tree that thrives in warm, humid environments and is sensitive to frost. The main cultivation areas in China are located between latitudes 18-29 degrees north, with Guangdong being the largest production region, followed by Fujian, Guangxi, and Hainan [1][3][19]. - The lychee industry has undergone three development phases since the establishment of New China: recovery (1952-1980), rapid expansion (1981-1998), and transformation and upgrading (1999-present) [10]. Production and Yield - The lychee production in China for 2024 is significantly impacted by climatic conditions, with Guangdong's output dropping to 876,400 tons, a decrease of 51.01% year-on-year. The expected production for 2025 is projected to be 2.0626 million tons in Guangdong, 1.1451 million tons in Guangxi, and 184,000 tons in Hainan [19][24]. - The average flowering rates for major early and mid-late varieties are reported at 90.00% and 88.50%, respectively, indicating a strong foundation for the upcoming harvest [1][18]. Market Dynamics - The lychee industry is characterized by a diverse enterprise landscape, with key players including Guangdong Zhongli Agriculture Group and Shenzhen Baiguoyuan, which dominate the market through export trade and retail networks [26][28]. - The lychee supply chain encompasses seedling cultivation, agricultural inputs, planting management, processing, and sales, with a growing emphasis on cold chain logistics and deep processing [14][16]. Policy and Support - Recent government policies aim to promote the standardization and scaling of the lychee industry, including initiatives for rural income enhancement and agricultural brand cultivation [11][13]. - The establishment of technology systems and innovation in logistics and preservation methods are crucial for enhancing the competitiveness of the lychee industry [8][32]. Future Trends - The industry is expected to focus on variety optimization and quality enhancement, with a shift towards high-quality, storage-resistant varieties to meet consumer demands [32]. - Climate adaptability in planting practices and risk management strategies will be increasingly important to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather on production [33]. - The diversification of consumption markets and international expansion will be key growth areas, with an emphasis on processed products and new retail channels [34].

Core Insights - The 2025 World Economic Forum Summer Davos held from June 24 to 26 in Tianjin focused on "New Era Entrepreneurial Spirit," addressing global economic challenges and new growth models with participation from over 1,700 guests from around 90 countries [2][4] Group 1: Themes and Discussions - The event featured a masterclass on "Risk, Resilience, and Industrial Transformation Strategies," co-hosted by Peking University's Guanghua School of Management and the World Economic Forum, aimed at exploring governance strategies for businesses amid uncertainty [2][4] - Key discussions included enhancing corporate resilience through advanced analytical tools and frameworks to navigate complex challenges [6][9] Group 2: Insights from Experts - Liu Qiao emphasized the importance of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the context of China-U.S. economic competition, noting that China's TFP growth slowed to 1.2%-1.5% post-2010, but strategic initiatives in new energy and digital technology could drive future GDP growth [9][10] - René Rohrbeck introduced the "Future Adaptability" framework, highlighting the need for companies to develop three core capabilities: system observation, foresight, and experimentation, which can significantly enhance profitability and market value [11][12] - Jörgen Sandström discussed the potential of industrial clusters in improving regional cooperation and resource sharing, advocating for data-driven collaborative governance to address supply chain risks [13][14] Group 3: Industry Responses - Wang Nan from Neusoft Group shared challenges faced by companies in international markets, stressing the need for flexible business strategies and local partnerships to navigate rising tariffs and market access issues [17][18] - Caroline Berson from PepsiCo highlighted the importance of a robust strategic framework for managing policy risks, advocating for strong trend scanning capabilities to adapt to ongoing trade changes [19][20] - Dai Xin from Swiss Re pointed out the relatively weak risk protection mechanisms in China, suggesting that improved risk management is essential for sustainable growth [21][22]

Group 1 - The next five years mark the beginning of a comprehensive market entry for renewable energy in China, with expectations for continued growth beyond coal-fired power generation capacity [1][11] - China's energy development is transitioning towards a safe, efficient, and clean green direction, with a strong emphasis on reducing carbon emissions [1][3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a 13.5% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP and an 18% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions [3][4] Group 2 - Despite the acceleration in energy transition, challenges remain, particularly regarding energy security and the "impossible triangle" of energy security, economy, and cleanliness [2] - The transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control is a significant policy shift, emphasizing the role of carbon emissions in the energy revolution [5][6] - The focus on carbon emissions will facilitate the development of non-fossil energy sources and alleviate constraints faced by enterprises using clean energy [6] Group 3 - By 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption is expected to reach around 20%, with non-fossil energy generation accounting for approximately 39% of total generation [7][8] - As of July 2024, the installed capacity of wind and solar energy reached 1.206 billion kilowatts, surpassing coal power capacity [8] - The rapid development of renewable energy poses challenges for the energy system, necessitating enhanced flexibility and security measures [8][10] Group 4 - The upcoming five years will see renewable energy fully entering the electricity market, with expectations for continued growth in installed capacity [11][12] - The transition to a carbon emission control system will require significant efforts to manage the increasing pressure on the electricity grid due to higher renewable energy integration [12][13] - Climate change and extreme weather events are becoming critical factors in electricity planning, necessitating a new adaptive planning approach for the energy system [13]

科创板新一轮改革启幕。 在6月18日召开的2025陆家嘴论坛上，中国证监会主席吴清表示，将聚焦提升制度的包容性和适应性， 以深化科创板、创业板改革为抓手，更好发挥科创板"试验田"作用，加力推出进一步深化改革 的"1+6"政策措施，统筹推进投融资综合改革和投资者权益保护，加快构建更有利于支持全面创新的资 本市场生态。 21世纪经济报道记者 张赛男 上海报道 "1"是在科创板设置科创成长层，并且重启未盈利企业适用于科创板第五套标准上市，更加精准服务技 术有较大突破、持续研发投入大、商业前景广的优质科创企业，在强化信息披露、加强投资者适当性管 理方面作出安排。 "6"是在科创板推出六项措施：包括对于适用科创板第五套标准的企业，试点引入资深专业机构投资者 制度；面向优质科技企业试点IPO预先审阅机制；扩大第五套标准适用范围，支持人工智能、商业航 天、低空经济等更多前沿科技领域企业适用；支持在审未盈利科技企业面向老股东开展增资扩股等活 动；完善科创板公司再融资制度和战略投资者认定标准；增加科创板投资产品和风险管理工具等。 随后，中国证监会印发了《关于在科创板设置科创成长层增强制度包容性适应性的意见》（以下简称 《科创板 ...