【导读】 美联储12月降息预期骤变 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下美联储降息的消息，市场预期，非常不明朗。 降息预期骤变 美联储官员对政策前景的谨慎表态促使交易员减少了对12月降息的押注，降息概率已跌破50%。不到一个月前，市场几乎已经完全消化了 降息25个基点的预期。 许多交易员指出，美联储12月再次降息 的可能性 正在降低，这很可能是引发抛售潮的导火索。截至发稿，欧洲股市全线跳水，美股盘前三 大指数大幅下挫。 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利表示，他并不支持美联储上一次的降息决定，不过对于12月货币政策会议的最佳行动方案， 他目前仍未下定决心。 卡什卡利周四在接受采访时表示："从我们获得的轶事实证和数据来看，经济活动的内在韧性超出了我的预期。"在他看来，这些因素都指 向在美联储10月会议上应该暂停降息。 背后发生了什么事情 一个月前，市场预期降息的概率高达95%。 那发生了什么变化？市场分析认为，在官方数据发布因为政府停摆而一度中断的这段时间里，不确定性明显上升。一些美联储官员担心 在"数据盲飞"的情况下做决策，因为最近的数据显示劳动力市场正在走软，但通胀虽然略有回落，仍明显高于美联储2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was accompanied by hawkish signals from Chairman Powell, dampening market expectations for further cuts by year-end [1][5] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4%, the lowest level in three years [1] - Powell refuted the market's belief that a December rate cut was certain, stating that this outlook was "far from guaranteed" [1][5] - Following Powell's comments, the probability of a December rate cut plummeted from 95% to 65%, impacting major indices negatively [1] Group 2: Internal Disagreements - The latest rate decision passed with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, revealing significant internal divisions within the committee [4] - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted against the cut, favoring a hold on rates, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran advocated for a larger cut of 50 basis points [4] - Powell acknowledged a "growing chorus" of officials questioning the need for further easing, indicating a shift in sentiment among decision-makers [4] Group 3: Economic Data Uncertainty - The government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, increasing uncertainty around future rate decisions [6][7] - Powell noted that missing data could lead to "very high uncertainty" regarding the economic outlook, complicating decision-making [6] - The absence of key labor market indicators has hindered officials' ability to resolve their differences [6] Group 4: Inflation and Employment Dynamics - The core debate within the Fed revolves around balancing inflation control with addressing economic slowdown [9] - Some officials are wary of excessive rate cuts that could overheat the economy and sustain inflation above the 2% target [9] - Recent labor reports indicate a sharp slowdown in job growth, with average monthly additions around 29,000, significantly lower than the previous year's average of 82,000 [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a widening divide between Wall Street's expectation of imminent rate cuts and the caution expressed by regional Fed presidents due to persistent inflation concerns [2][3] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated that inflation is moving in the wrong direction and may not return to the 2% target until the end of 2027, advocating for a restrictive stance [2] - Market sentiment is largely ignoring the Fed's caution, with approximately 90% of investors betting on a 25 basis point rate cut during the October 28-29 meeting, and 70% expecting another cut in December [2] Group 2 - Concerns about a potential downturn in the labor market are being raised, with New York Fed President John Williams warning against harming employment objectives [3] - The upcoming release of key economic data, including the September CPI, employment report, and preliminary Q3 GDP, is seen as critical for determining the Fed's policy direction [3] - The Fed faces a balancing act between premature easing and excessive tightening, as inflation remains above target while signs of employment slowdown emerge [3]

摘要今日周五（9月26日）亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于850元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报851.22 元/克，涨幅0.09%，最高触及854.20元/克，最低下探846.66元/克。目前来看，黄金T+D短线偏向震荡走 势。 目前，美联储内部的这场货币政策"路线之争"仍在持续发酵。米兰凭借其频繁的公开亮相，如同"舌战 群儒"，竭力为大幅降息争取支持，但其观点在美联储内部仍显孤立。而包括古尔斯比、施密德在内的 多数官员，则坚守着谨慎行事的底线。 这场辩论的结果，将深刻影响美国乃至全球经济的未来走向。美联储主席鲍威尔如何调和分歧、凝聚共 识，在通胀与就业这两个目标之间走好钢丝，将是接下来全球市场关注的绝对焦点。这场内部分歧的公 开化，也预示着未来货币政策的走向将充满更大的不确定性和波动性。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 黄金t+d技术要点：上压850-860元/克，下撑820-840元/克。破850元/克可望涨至860元；失守800元/克或 续跌。现处关键节点，紧盯突破动向。 今日周五（9月26日）亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于850元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报851.22元/克， 涨幅0.09%，最高触及 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - The decision was influenced by indicators showing a slowdown in economic activity, job growth, and a rise in inflation [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the focus on the labor market and the challenges of balancing rising inflation with a weakening job market [1] Economic Forecasts - The median forecast for the U.S. real GDP growth rate for 2025 is 1.6% [2] - The median forecast for the unemployment rate is 4.5% [2] - The median forecast for the inflation rate is 3% [2] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets closed mixed, the dollar index fell before rebounding, and gold prices experienced fluctuations [3] - Analysts predict a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year and an additional 125 basis points in 2026 [3] - Economic risks are highlighted, with concerns about the reliability of U.S. sovereign credit rather than private debt [3]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - The decision was influenced by slowing economic activity, job growth, and rising inflation, with the Fed indicating a careful assessment of future data and economic risks [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the focus on the labor market, stating that lowering rates could assist those struggling to find jobs [1] Economic Forecasts - The median forecast for the U.S. real GDP growth rate for 2025 is 1.6%, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.5% and an inflation rate forecast of 3% [2] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets showed mixed results, the dollar index fell before rebounding, and gold prices experienced fluctuations [3] - Analysts predict a total rate cut of 75 basis points by the end of the year and an additional 125 basis points in the following year [3] - Economic concerns were raised regarding the potential trust crisis in U.S. government credit, rather than private debt, as a result of the rate cut [3]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the decision was made after balancing the risks of inflation and employment, noting a slower and smaller impact of tariffs on inflation and a weakening labor market [1] - Stephen Milan was confirmed as a new Fed governor, filling the vacancy left by the resignation of Adriana Kugler, with his term ending on January 31, 2026 [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates reflects a shift towards acknowledging the increased risk of promoting employment [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of data-driven arguments in maintaining the Fed's independence, despite concerns about Milan's dual role in the White House and the Fed [2] - Milan was the only voting member to dissent, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of the 25 basis points that were implemented [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated an openness to interest rate cuts in the coming months despite inflation risks [2][3] - Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy shows resilience amid high tariffs and stricter immigration policies, but labor market and economic growth have significantly slowed [2][3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, with tariffs contributing to higher prices [2] Group 2: Economic Challenges and Policy Adjustments - Powell identified new challenges for the U.S. economy, including higher tariffs reshaping global trade and stricter immigration policies leading to a sharp slowdown in labor supply growth [3] - The Federal Reserve's revised long-term goals include the removal of the "average inflation targeting" and a return to a more flexible inflation target [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged from approximately 75% to about 91% following Powell's remarks [4] Group 3: Global Economic Concerns - The theme of the Jackson Hole conference was "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," highlighting the threat of global population aging to economic growth and price stability [6] - Central bank leaders warned that developed countries face severe labor shortages due to low birth rates and increased life expectancy, which could hinder economic growth [6][7] - The potential for wage-price spirals exists as labor shortages may empower workers to demand higher wages, contributing to inflationary pressures [6] Group 4: Importance of Foreign Labor - ECB President Lagarde noted that the influx of foreign labor has provided growth momentum for the Eurozone economy, countering the effects of reduced working hours and declining real wages [7] - Bank of England Governor Bailey emphasized the urgent challenges posed by demographic changes and declining productivity, stressing the need for increased labor market participation to boost economic growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Jackson Hole symposium highlighted the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, with internal disagreements on the appropriateness of potential interest rate cuts amid rising inflation and a weakening labor market [1][2][3]. Economic Dilemma: Inflation and Employment - Policymakers are grappling with high inflation rates above the 2% target and signs of labor market weakness, creating conflicting signals that complicate decision-making [2]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted the difficulty of navigating these contradictory signals during a transformative period [2]. - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is increasing, particularly from former President Donald Trump, who has been vocal about pushing for interest rate cuts [2][3]. Interest Rate Path: Rate Cut Expectations and Internal Disagreements - Jerome Powell's speech indicated a potential for interest rate cuts at the upcoming September meeting, but consensus among policymakers is lacking compared to previous years [3]. - Recent data shows inflation stagnating above the Fed's target, while labor market indicators present a mixed picture, leading to growing divisions among policymakers [3]. - The potential for dissenting votes at the September meeting is heightened, especially with upcoming nominations to fill vacancies on the Fed's board [3]. Pressure on Independence: Maintaining Federal Reserve Autonomy - The Federal Reserve is under scrutiny from the White House, with discussions about political pressures permeating informal interactions at the symposium [4]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is viewed as crucial for achieving its dual mandate of price stability and full employment [5][6]. New Policy Framework: Returning to Fundamental Goals - Powell introduced a new policy framework aimed at guiding policymakers in achieving inflation and employment targets, moving away from previous focuses on low inflation challenges [5]. - The emphasis on maintaining the Fed's independence is seen as essential for effectively addressing inflation and unemployment [5][6]. Global Impact: Ripple Effects of Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decisions have far-reaching implications beyond the U.S., influencing global economic conditions [6]. - Following Powell's remarks, the euro appreciated against the dollar, indicating potential downward pressure on inflation in the Eurozone [6].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is highly anticipated, with market expectations leaning towards a potential interest rate cut in September, influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements [1][5][11]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Market bets indicate a greater than 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with some institutions speculating on a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [1][5]. - The current economic indicators, including mixed inflation and employment data, create uncertainty around Powell's potential decisions [5][9]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. CPI data showed a slowdown, providing some reassurance to the market, but core inflation remains stubbornly high, complicating the Fed's decision-making [5][9]. - The July non-farm payroll data was weak, raising concerns about the economic outlook, although stronger housing starts data provided some support for hawkish sentiments [5][9]. Group 3: Potential Market Reactions - Powell's statements could lead to significant market movements; a clear signal for a rate cut could boost U.S. stocks and weaken the dollar, while a cautious approach could dampen market sentiment [7][9]. - The outcome of Powell's speech is expected to influence global capital flows, particularly towards emerging markets if the dollar depreciates [7][9]. Group 4: Historical Context - Historically, the Jackson Hole meeting has been a critical point for the Fed to signal policy changes, with past events leading to notable market volatility [9].