消息面： 黄金价格周一显著上扬，现货黄金上涨近1.7%，报每盎司4111.86美元，主要受益于市场对美联储将于12月降息的预期 不断增强。12月交割的美国黄金期货同步收高0.4%，结算价报每盎司4094.2美元。道明证券大宗商品策略主管Bart Melek表示："市场越来越确信美联储将在12月实施降息。"这一预期在数据层面得到支撑——芝商所FedWatch工具显 示，目前市场对12月降息的预期概率已升至85%。投资者的关注焦点现已转向本周即将发布的多项关键经济数据，包 括零售销售、失业救济金申请人数和生产者物价指数，这些因政府停摆而推迟发布的数据将为货币政策路径提供更清 晰指引。与此同时，地缘因素继续为金价提供支撑。美国和乌克兰周一继续进行会谈，商讨结束俄乌冲突的方案，双 方同意修改早前被批评对莫斯科过于有利的美国提案。 4小时图胶着震荡当中，震荡且反复。并没形成单边趋势，仍在等待月线的形态确认。在短线图收缩震荡反复洗盘的 阶段。结合日线图今日靠近了上轨阻力区域。今日短线思路围绕上轨4170-4180附近依旧看空防守放在4200目标看回 4100下方4050-4000减个仓再下看。 国际白银： 白银上周五探底 ...

沪铜早间低开，日内持续偏弱运行，收盘下跌0.91%。美联储降息预期降温，宏观氛围转弱，铜矿端仍 有支撑，但下游需求仍需观察，沪铜偏弱运行。 最近美联储部分官员表态较为鹰派，叠加市场还需根据更多美国经济数据衡量经济表现，美联储12月降 息预期出现回落，风险偏好转弱，贵金属大幅回调，有色也普遍走软。 对于铜价表现，金瑞期货表示，矿山企业财务报告陆续披露，铜矿增量修正不大，原料紧张逻辑延续。 冶炼环节，维持未来产量继续环比下移预期。进出口方面，进入11月到港环比或小幅下降，同时前期出 口打开，国内可能继续有出口安排。消费端，近期下游反馈消费表现有所改善，但幅度和持续性有待观 察，国内平衡暂未明显去库。展望后市，宏观驱动放缓，后续仍需关注潜在流动性风险，以及货币政策 路径。预计短期保持高位震荡，重心暂无大幅下降压力。 （文华综合） 国内铜精矿现货加工费仍然徘徊在-40美元/干吨附近，矿紧局面难以有明显缓解。此前铜价高企，社会 库存去化有限，今日铜价重心回落，现货升水有所扩大，后续仍需关注下游需求表现。 ...

这一切都发生在一个充满挑战的时刻。投资者不仅要应对美国政府停摆造成的经济数据荒，而且现有的指标也显示劳动力市 场疲软，通胀持续高企。美联储正被严重政治化，特朗普政府在抨击美联储独立性的同时，还准备提名明年接替鲍威尔的人 选。 鹰派和鸽派 由19名成员组成的委员会在任何时候都会有12名有投票权的成员，其中包括美联储理事和11家地区联储总裁。 今日 Ultima Markets 为您带来了美联储内部分歧与货币政策路径的深度解析。关键词：美联储分歧、鲍威尔领导力、双向异 议、降息政策、鹰鸽博弈、货币政策路径、经济不确定性 简介：聚焦美联储降息决策中的内部分化态势，解析鲍威尔共识领导力面临的挑战，探讨鹰鸽博弈与经济不确定性对后续利 率政策的影响，助您把握美联储货币政策调整中的市场预期与趋势变化。 随着经济不确定性迷雾日趋浓厚，美联储19人货币政策制定委员会内部的分歧和异议也在加深，这对主席鲍威尔建立共识的 能力提出了终极考验。 美联储上周的降息决定符合市场预期，但这次会议却具有历史意义。美联储以10票赞成、两票反对的结果将指标利率区间下 调25个基点，这是自1990年以来，第三次在拥有投票权的决策者中同时出现双向异议 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the risk of a "re-acceleration" of the U.S. economy is rising, which could lead to a significantly different monetary policy path by 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is showing strong performance across multiple key indicators, with Goldman Sachs' U.S. Macro Surprise Index recently surging and initial jobless claims data being encouraging [2] - Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research (GIR) expects the U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 to reach a healthy 2.6% on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, providing strong support for growth in the first half of next year [2] Group 2: Factors Driving Economic Re-acceleration - Key factors contributing to the risk of economic re-acceleration include: - Loose financial conditions characterized by strong performance of risk assets, expectations of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and a weaker dollar [3] - Anticipated positive fiscal policy impulses in the first half of next year, along with continued capital expenditure in the artificial intelligence sector [3] - A solid consumer base in the U.S. and the impact of deregulation [3][4] Group 3: Monetary Policy Path - The monetary policy path for 2025 and 2026 presents a starkly different scenario, heavily influenced by the new Federal Reserve chair's policy inclinations [5] - Current statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicate that recent job growth is below the "breakeven" level, suggesting a potential normalization of policy rates closer to neutral levels (3%-3.5% range) [6] - Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario anticipates rate cuts of 25 basis points in both October and December of this year [6] Group 4: Market Reactions to Policy Expectations - If the market expects the policy rate to remain low (indicating the Fed will not effectively tighten policy), the appropriate trades would be to go long on longer-dated breakeven inflation rates, gold, and continue holding risk assets [8] - Conversely, if the market believes the Fed will respond to economic re-acceleration by tightening policy, the U.S. Treasury yield curve should steepen [9] - The current SFRM6/M8 spread, which measures mid-term rate expectations for 2026, is hovering around flat (currently -5 basis points), indicating that the market has not fully priced in rate hike risks [10] - In this scenario, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curve (2s10s) is also expected to steepen [11]

Economic Data and Events - Investors should closely monitor key economic data and events this week, including speeches from Federal Reserve officials, ISM manufacturing data, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, as these will provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy path and influence gold prices [1] Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market experienced a downward trend last week due to a rapid decline in risk aversion, breaking below the critical level of 3300, resulting in a small bearish candle [1] - The weekly chart indicates that gold has fallen below the MA10 support, with the MACD indicator forming a death cross at high levels, suggesting potential further decline towards the MA20 [1] - The daily chart shows that bullish momentum has halted, with the moving averages in a tight range, and although the MACD has formed a death cross, it is near the zero line, indicating limited downside potential before a breakout [1] - Short-term trading strategy for gold suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3290, with a stop loss at 3282 and a target of 3320-3340 [1] Silver Market Analysis - The daily chart for silver shows a small candlestick with a notably low wick, resembling a potential doji pattern, indicating market indecision between buyers and sellers [3] - The support level at 35.12, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from April to June, provides a solid technical base, while resistance above may limit short-term gains [3] - Domestic silver futures are trading above 8765, with a slight increase of 0.09%, indicating a bullish short-term outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is unable to commit to a specific interest rate path due to high uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policies and the situation in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB, highlighted that the most significant uncertainty for future monetary policy is the unpredictable U.S. trade policies [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs, implemented under Trump's administration, remains unclear, particularly whether they will lead to inflation or deflation [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The situation in the Middle East is also a critical factor contributing to the uncertainty surrounding the ECB's monetary policy decisions [1]

Group 1 - The market widely expects the Bank of England to maintain interest rates at 4.25% [1] - Attention is on the voting situation regarding the interest rate decision by the Bank of England [2] - Focus is on the Bank of England's statements regarding the future monetary policy path [3] Group 2 - The Bank of England's views on inflation expectations and the slowdown in the labor market are of interest [4] - The Bank of England's stance on the decisions made by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is also being monitored [5]

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a narrow fluctuation around 100.65, while spot gold experienced a technical rebound after a significant drop, currently trading around $3325 per ounce [1] - The dollar index rose by 0.73% to close at 100.64, driven by the announcement of a historic trade agreement between the US and the UK, which maintains a 10% baseline tariff on UK imports [1] - Spot gold fell sharply by $58.25, or 1.73%, closing at $3305.89 per ounce due to increased risk appetite and the strengthening of the dollar index and US Treasury yields [1] Group 2 - The gold market is currently in a range-bound oscillation, with key support at the $3270 level and significant resistance at the $3450 level, indicating a downward trend [2] - Recent price action shows a deep retracement from the $3500 level, with the daily K-line forming a pattern of alternating bullish and bearish movements, consistent with technical correction characteristics [2] - The 50-period moving average continues to show a clear downward trajectory, reinforcing the resistance at the $3450 level [2] Group 3 - The short-term price trend for gold displays a clear descending channel, with selling pressure dominating the market [4] - The first target for downward movement is the $3300 area, and if this support level fails, further declines to the $3320 level may occur [4] - A new trend is being anticipated, with a focus on the breakout direction within the $3300-$3380 range, which will determine the continuation or reversal of the medium-term trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member, Rehn, emphasized the significant role of euro interest rates in assessing the monetary policy path [1] Group 1 - Rehn highlighted that euro interest rates are crucial for evaluating the direction of monetary policy [1]