本文来自：华尔街见闻，作者：董静，原文标题：《高盛警告：美国经济"重新加速"的风险正在上 升》，头图来自：AI生成 报告列举了推动这一风险的关键因素： 宽松的金融条件：风险资产的良好表现、美联储未来的降息预期以及美元走弱，共同营造了宽松 的金融环境。 财政与投资：预计明年上半年将迎来积极的财政政策脉冲，同时人工智能领域的资本支出将继续 提供增长动力。 消费者与监管：美国消费者基础依然稳固，而去监管化的影响也不容忽视。 高盛称，这些顺风因素的叠加，使得经济在明年出现超预期增长的可能性增加。 二、货币政策路径取决于新美联储主席倾向 高盛最新警告，一系列因素正显著增加美国经济"重新加速"的风险，将为2026年的货币政策路径带来截 然不同的前景和挑战。 9月28日，高盛分析师Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli和Rikin Shah在最新报告中称，美国经济面临重新加速的 风险正在上升，这一预期建立在劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预期以及宽松金融环境等多重利好因素基础 之上。 该行分析师认为，当前美国经济在多项指标上表现强劲，本周公布的首次申请失业救济人数数据令人鼓 舞，而高盛全球投资研究部门预计第三季度美国GD ...

Economic Data and Events - Investors should closely monitor key economic data and events this week, including speeches from Federal Reserve officials, ISM manufacturing data, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, as these will provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy path and influence gold prices [1] Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market experienced a downward trend last week due to a rapid decline in risk aversion, breaking below the critical level of 3300, resulting in a small bearish candle [1] - The weekly chart indicates that gold has fallen below the MA10 support, with the MACD indicator forming a death cross at high levels, suggesting potential further decline towards the MA20 [1] - The daily chart shows that bullish momentum has halted, with the moving averages in a tight range, and although the MACD has formed a death cross, it is near the zero line, indicating limited downside potential before a breakout [1] - Short-term trading strategy for gold suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3290, with a stop loss at 3282 and a target of 3320-3340 [1] Silver Market Analysis - The daily chart for silver shows a small candlestick with a notably low wick, resembling a potential doji pattern, indicating market indecision between buyers and sellers [3] - The support level at 35.12, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from April to June, provides a solid technical base, while resistance above may limit short-term gains [3] - Domestic silver futures are trading above 8765, with a slight increase of 0.09%, indicating a bullish short-term outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is unable to commit to a specific interest rate path due to high uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policies and the situation in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB, highlighted that the most significant uncertainty for future monetary policy is the unpredictable U.S. trade policies [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs, implemented under Trump's administration, remains unclear, particularly whether they will lead to inflation or deflation [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The situation in the Middle East is also a critical factor contributing to the uncertainty surrounding the ECB's monetary policy decisions [1]

Group 1 - The market widely expects the Bank of England to maintain interest rates at 4.25% [1] - Attention is on the voting situation regarding the interest rate decision by the Bank of England [2] - Focus is on the Bank of England's statements regarding the future monetary policy path [3] Group 2 - The Bank of England's views on inflation expectations and the slowdown in the labor market are of interest [4] - The Bank of England's stance on the decisions made by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is also being monitored [5]

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a narrow fluctuation around 100.65, while spot gold experienced a technical rebound after a significant drop, currently trading around $3325 per ounce [1] - The dollar index rose by 0.73% to close at 100.64, driven by the announcement of a historic trade agreement between the US and the UK, which maintains a 10% baseline tariff on UK imports [1] - Spot gold fell sharply by $58.25, or 1.73%, closing at $3305.89 per ounce due to increased risk appetite and the strengthening of the dollar index and US Treasury yields [1] Group 2 - The gold market is currently in a range-bound oscillation, with key support at the $3270 level and significant resistance at the $3450 level, indicating a downward trend [2] - Recent price action shows a deep retracement from the $3500 level, with the daily K-line forming a pattern of alternating bullish and bearish movements, consistent with technical correction characteristics [2] - The 50-period moving average continues to show a clear downward trajectory, reinforcing the resistance at the $3450 level [2] Group 3 - The short-term price trend for gold displays a clear descending channel, with selling pressure dominating the market [4] - The first target for downward movement is the $3300 area, and if this support level fails, further declines to the $3320 level may occur [4] - A new trend is being anticipated, with a focus on the breakout direction within the $3300-$3380 range, which will determine the continuation or reversal of the medium-term trend [4]

欧洲央行管委雷恩：欧元利率在评估货币政策路径中具有重要意义。 ...