房地产 2025 年 08 月 25 日 建发国际集团(1908.HK) 报表端呈改善迹象，业绩有望轻装上阵 推荐（维持） 股价：18.5 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 房地产 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.cndintl.com | | 大股东/持股 | 建发房产/56.64% | | 实际控制人 | 厦门市国有资产监督管理委员会 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2240 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 0 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 2240 | | 总市值（亿元） | 378.3 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 0 | | 每股净资产(元) | 14.4 | | 资产负债率(%) | 75.90 | | 行情走势图 | | 相关研究报告 【平安证券】建发国际集团（1908.HK）*年报点评*投 拓积极有为，受益高品质住宅需求释放*推荐20250329 【平安证券】建发国际集团（1908.HK）*半年报点评* 结算端利润承压，拿地进取土储优化*推荐20240827 证券分析师 | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to stabilize both the real estate and stock markets. The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5][49] - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market to boost social expectations and facilitate domestic demand circulation amid uncertainties in external environments, such as ongoing Sino-US trade frictions [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.5%, the ChiNext Index grew by 8.6%, and the CSI 300 Index went up by 2.4%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw an increase of 3.9% [6][9] - In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers were Wantong Development (+39.4%), Quzhou Development (+33.0%), Electronic City (+32.0%), *ST Nanzhi (+25.0%), and Shahe Shares (+21.2%) [6][9] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of August 9-15, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 141 million square meters, a decrease of 1.4% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 20.4% [16] - As of August 15, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities for the month totaled 306 million square meters, down 9.5% month-on-month and down 20.9% year-on-year [20] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of August 9-15, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 178 million square meters, an increase of 3.0% week-on-week but a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% [31] - As of August 15, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities for the month totaled 381 million square meters, down 5.5% month-on-month and down 2.1% year-on-year [36] Industry News - From January to July 2025, national real estate development investment reached 535.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The sales area of commercial housing was 51.56 million square meters, down 4% year-on-year [49] - Local policies include Hainan Province encouraging "purchase instead of construction" for resettling relocated residents and Guangzhou releasing new regulations for rural residential construction management [49] Company Announcements - In July 2025, China Jinmao achieved a sales amount of 8.46 billion yuan (up 49% year-on-year), while New Town Holdings reported 1.66 billion yuan (down 52% year-on-year) [52] - China Resources Land reported a sales amount of 13.3 billion yuan (down 14% year-on-year) for July 2025 [52]

Core Insights - The recent surge in property sales in Wuhan, particularly the "daylight disk" phenomenon, indicates a strong demand for high-quality residential projects despite the traditional off-peak season for real estate [1][5][8] - The introduction of innovative housing designs and supportive government policies has significantly contributed to the market's recovery and the success of new projects [5][6][8] Group 1: Market Trends - The opening of the Weixing Xingchen Jiuxu project saw 306 out of 384 units sold within two hours, achieving a nearly 80% sales rate on the first day [1] - The Han Yang Zhuo project also experienced rapid sales, with 186 units sold out in just two hours, reflecting a growing trend of "daylight disks" in the market [3] - The average sales rate for new projects designed under the new regulations in Wuhan reached over 70%, which is two to three times higher than ordinary projects [6] Group 2: Product and Design Innovations - The Weixing project features a low plot ratio of 1.88 and spacious layouts, appealing to families looking for high-quality living spaces [3] - The government's new policy encourages innovative housing designs, leading to lower average plot ratios below 2.0 for residential land, which enhances the attractiveness of new developments [5][6] Group 3: Government Policies and Support - The Wuhan government has implemented targeted policies to stimulate the housing market, including the "Qiao Liu Tiao" policy, which has significantly boosted sales in specific districts [6][8] - The introduction of housing exchange vouchers and the use of guaranteed housing projects have further stimulated demand and facilitated transactions [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Multiple high-quality projects are set to launch in the second half of the year, indicating a sustained interest in premium residential offerings [3][5] - The collaboration between local government and developers is creating a positive cycle of selling old properties, acquiring new land, and building quality homes, which is expected to continue driving market activity [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][5][59] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of implementing the spirit of the Central Urban Work Conference and conducting high-quality urban renewal [3][47] - The report highlights that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, which is crucial for boosting social expectations and facilitating domestic demand circulation [5][50] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.6%, the ChiNext Index by 0.7%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.8%, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) dropped by 3.4% [5][8] - In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers were Zhujiang Co. (+13.5%), Dazhong Electronics (+10.3%), Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (+6.8%), ST Nanzhi (+6.1%), and Quzhou Development (+5.9%), while the top five losers included Hainan Airport (-8.4%), Jindi Group (-8.1%), Lujiazui (-7.9%), China Merchants Shekou (-7.7%), and Hainan Expressway (-7.7%) [5][8] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of July 26 to August 1, 205,000 square meters of new homes were sold across 42 key cities, a 19.9% increase from the previous week, but a 20.8% decrease year-on-year [14][18] - In July, a total of 761,000 square meters of new homes were sold, representing a 31.8% decrease month-on-month and an 18.3% decrease year-on-year [18] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of July 26 to August 1, 185,000 square meters of second-hand homes were sold across 21 key cities, a 5.4% decrease from the previous week, but a 2.5% increase year-on-year [29][35] - In July, a total of 854,000 square meters of second-hand homes were sold, reflecting a 2.1% decrease month-on-month and a 3.9% decrease year-on-year [35] Industry News - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for high-quality urban renewal and the implementation of policies to stabilize the real estate market [47][48] - The National Taxation Administration reported that since the implementation of the housing tax refund policy, 11.1 billion yuan has been refunded, alleviating the tax burden on residents [47][48] Company Announcements - Lujiazui achieved a revenue of 6.598 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 815 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [50][51] - Dazhong City completed a targeted issuance of 2.426 billion yuan, increasing its total share capital to 4.286 billion shares [50][51]

Core Insights - Shenzhen successfully auctioned a residential land parcel, with Greentown South China Investment Development Co., Ltd. winning the bid at a total price of 1.215 billion yuan, reflecting a premium rate of 11.47% and a floor price of approximately 20,363 yuan per square meter [1][2] Group 1: Land Auction Details - The land parcel A319-1225 in Bao'an District has a total area of 19,246.94 square meters and is designated for "Type II residential use," with a starting price of 1.09 billion yuan and a maximum floor area ratio of 3.1 [2] - The planned construction includes a total building area of 59,665 square meters, comprising 53,595 square meters for residential use, 1,500 square meters for commercial use, and additional facilities such as a kindergarten and community service rooms [2] Group 2: Market Context and Developer Strategy - The location of the land is advantageous, being only 300 meters from the ShaJing Station on Line 11, and there are no competing new properties in the vicinity, providing Greentown with ample design and planning opportunities for high-quality residential development [3] - The auction reflects a trend in Shenzhen's land market characterized by "individual case heat and overall calm," with premium developers focusing on core cities and prime locations, indicating a shift towards fewer but more prominent new developments [3] Group 3: Company Performance and Future Outlook - Greentown's total contract sales amount for the first half of 2025 was approximately 122.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the broader market despite successful land acquisitions [5] - The company has established itself as a leader in high-quality residential development, with a brand value of 118.8 billion yuan and a total asset scale exceeding 500 billion yuan, positioning it well for future growth in the competitive Shenzhen market [5]

Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization despite challenges such as high inventory and price declines, supported by government policies aimed at market stabilization [2][3][4] - The demand for housing in the top 20 cities is expected to remain strong, with an annual incremental demand of approximately 300 million square meters driven by population growth and housing improvement needs [3][36] - The supply of residential land is projected to decrease by 20% year-on-year by 2025, which is expected to help balance supply and demand [4][10] Group 1: Market Structure - Shanghai and Beijing continue to dominate the real estate market, with the top 50 cities accounting for over half of the new housing sales and GDP [1][22] - The demand-side support has led to rising rankings for some coastal cities, with Hainan province particularly benefiting from favorable policies [2][28] - The top 20 cities are projected to have an annual incremental demand of 300 million square meters due to population concentration and improvement needs [3][36] Group 2: Supply and Inventory - The supply of residential land is expected to decrease by 20% year-on-year by 2025, which will help to alleviate inventory pressure and promote market balance [4][10] - Inventory issues vary significantly across cities, necessitating tailored approaches to inventory management [4][10] - The broad and narrow inventory indicators are showing improvements, indicating a reduction in overall inventory pressure [2][19] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The top 20 cities are expected to see a robust annual incremental housing demand of 300 million square meters, driven by population growth and housing quality improvements [3][36] - The demand for housing in first-tier cities remains stable, with significant improvement in high-end residential markets [39][46] - The demand dynamics in second-tier cities are also promising, with cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu showing strong market performance [47][52] Group 4: City Rankings and Performance - The rankings of cities have shown significant changes, with second-tier cities like Tianjin and Nanjing improving due to better inventory management [30][32] - Coastal cities, particularly in Hainan, have seen notable improvements in rankings due to strong demand-side support [28][30] - The overall performance of the top 50 cities reflects a concentration of population and economic activity, with these cities accounting for 34% of the national population and 50% of GDP [26][30]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to "stabilize the real estate market and stock market," indicating that the stabilization of the real estate market is crucial for boosting social expectations and facilitating domestic demand circulation [5][48] - The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.3%, the ChiNext Index by 2.8%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.7%, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 4.1% [5][8] - The top five stocks in terms of price increase were *ST Nan Zhi (+15.4%), Hainan Airport (+14.5%), Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (+12.4%), Tibet City Investment (+11.8%), and Dayuecheng (+10.6%) [5] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of July 19-25, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.69 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 19.4% [15] - In July (up to the week of July 25), new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 5.77 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 28.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.9% [19] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of July 19-25, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.95 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 1.8% [31] - In July (up to the week of July 25), second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 6.96 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 3.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [35] Industry News - The State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations," marking a new phase of legalization and standardization in the housing rental market [48] - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in real estate development loans, indicating a recovery in growth [48] - The Ministry of Finance reported that the revenue from state-owned land transfers in the first half of 2025 was 1.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [48] Company Announcements - China Merchants Shekou issued the first phase of corporate bonds worth 800 million yuan with an interest rate of 1.70% for a term of 3 years [51] - China Jinmao issued the first phase of unsecured medium-term notes worth 2 billion yuan with an interest rate of 2.30% for a term of 3 years [51] - Binhai Group acquired the land use rights for a state-owned construction site in Hangzhou, covering an area of 36,496 square meters with a total price of 1.53 billion yuan [51]

Core Insights - The "Taishan Renjia" project aims to establish high-quality residential standards in Shandong Province, focusing on design, construction, landscape, and amenities to meet community needs [1][2] Group 1: Project Overview - The project is being developed by Taishan City Investment Group and is part of a pilot initiative for high-quality housing in the region [1] - The project includes over 39 different housing types, with more than 95% featuring private gardens, enhancing living space functionality [2] Group 2: Construction and Design Features - The construction adheres to national standards and incorporates 44 superior techniques, including advanced insulation and soundproofing measures [2] - The project features a 3.3-meter ceiling height for improved living comfort and utilizes innovative materials like LOW-E glass for energy efficiency [2] Group 3: Community and Environmental Integration - A 500-meter long, 30-acre park is planned to embody the concept of "building homes in parks," enhancing the living environment [3] - The development includes a 20-acre commercial cluster with various amenities, including a community hotel, swimming pool, and fitness center, aimed at boosting local consumption and urban image [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of housing in Zibo from basic living conditions to high-quality living environments, showcasing the city's comprehensive efforts in implementing the "Good House" initiative, which emphasizes safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence in housing construction [2][4]. Group 1: Quality Upgrade - The shift in the real estate market in Zibo is moving from "having a house" to "living in a good house," with increasing demand for high-quality housing among buyers [3]. - The "Qiyuan Project" in Zibo is the first residential project to receive WELL health building mid-term certification, indicating a strong focus on high-quality standards in planning, construction, and material selection [3]. - The local government has introduced various policies to support this transition, including relaxing regulations on building density and green space, and establishing clear technical standards for residential quality [4]. Group 2: Upgraded Amenities - The "Fuyuan Community" features a city library that serves as a cultural hub, providing over 15,000 books and facilitating community engagement through educational resources [5]. - New guidelines for public service facilities in residential areas mandate the inclusion of educational, health, and recreational amenities, enhancing the overall living experience for residents [5]. - The integration of modern commercial spaces, such as the "Hongcheng International Plaza," has created vibrant community areas that cater to shopping, entertainment, and socializing [6]. Group 3: Rural Renewal - The "Good House" initiative extends to rural areas, with significant improvements in housing quality for villagers, including modern amenities and community facilities [7]. - The completion of housing projects in rural Zibo has provided new homes for 907 families, emphasizing the importance of quality in rural housing development [7]. - The local government is promoting modern, livable housing standards in rural areas, with the development of design guidelines and support for villagers to access quality housing options [8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Qingdao is experiencing a surprising resurgence in new home sales despite a long-term decline in property prices, particularly in the second-hand market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since 2018, property prices in Qingdao have been on a downward trend, with second-hand home prices declining significantly, leading to a loss of confidence among residents [2][5]. - Recent new home launches, particularly high-quality projects, have seen strong demand, with instances of over 200 buyers competing for just 64 units [2][5]. - The scarcity of land available for new developments has created a supply-demand imbalance, resulting in a situation where new homes are in high demand [5][28]. Group 2: Product Features - The design of new homes, such as those in the Haixin Jinsandian project, is highlighted as innovative, with efficient use of space leading to larger functional areas compared to traditional second-hand homes [7][10]. - The project boasts a net usable area exceeding 100%, which is significantly higher than the typical 25% common area in high-rise buildings, making it attractive to buyers [10][19]. - The emphasis on spacious and well-designed layouts, including features like high ceilings and optimized room arrangements, enhances the living experience [19][20]. Group 3: Location and Development - Haixin Jinsandian is strategically located near the "Asia's No. 1 Beach," making it a highly desirable property due to its proximity to natural coastal resources [26][28]. - The project benefits from Qingdao's strict land development regulations, making such prime locations rare and valuable [28][29]. - The combination of a prime location and the developer's experience in high-quality construction positions Haixin Jinsandian as a standout offering in the current market [29].