Core Viewpoint - Alibaba demonstrates rapid advancements in AI technology and a strong strategic commitment to "All in AI" at the 2025 Yunqi Conference, solidifying its leading position in large language models and showing significant progress in multimodal models [1] - The company is optimistic about its sustained leadership in large model capabilities and the strong dual-end penetration ability under its open-source strategy, leading to an upward adjustment in revenue growth expectations for Alibaba Cloud, with a target price of HKD 205.34 and a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - Alibaba's CEO, Wu Yongming, highlighted two main points regarding AI development: rapid technological progress and the swift increase in global AI investment and user penetration [1] - AI technology has advanced from high school level to PhD level in less than three years, with a high certainty of achieving AGI and ASI in the future [1] - Global AI investment is projected to grow from USD 400 billion in the past year to over USD 4 trillion in the next five years, with AI chatbots seeing the fastest user penetration [1] Group 2 - Alibaba Cloud aims to become one of the few global super cloud computing platforms, with plans to significantly increase its global data center energy consumption by tenfold by 2032 [1] - The company has released three large language models and four multimodal models, maintaining a leading position in the LLM arena, with Qwen 3 max ranking third globally [2] - The new Qwen 3Next architecture shows strong technical potential, with training resources significantly lower than comparable models while achieving similar performance [2] Group 3 - The open-source strategy has led to a substantial increase in the Qwen ecosystem, with over 1 million service customers and more than 170,000 derivative models [2] - The usage of Alibaba Cloud's services has seen a 15-fold increase in the past 12 months, with the MoDa community becoming the largest open-source community in China [2] - The company’s open-source strategy is seen as a key to capturing model market share and enhancing application ecosystems, particularly in the B-end market [3] Group 4 - The company forecasts revenue for FY2026-2028 to be CNY 10084 billion, CNY 11391 billion, and CNY 12482 billion, reflecting an upward adjustment due to deeper AI strategy and model technology advancements [3] - Adjusted net profit estimates for FY2026-2028 are CNY 1412 billion, CNY 1878 billion, and CNY 2166 billion, driven by accelerated AI revenue growth [3] - The estimated market value of the company is CNY 35757 billion, corresponding to a per-share value of HKD 205.34 [3]

本文来自微信公众号：凤凰网科技 （ID：ifeng_tech），作者：赵子坤，编辑：董雨晴，题图来自：AI生成 如果说，AGI的实现与否放在两年前还有"路线之争"。而今，超级人工智能的出现，似乎已是板上钉钉。 最近一段时间，AI界大佬接连发出全新"警告"：人类智力的霸权时代，已进入倒计时。 "ChatGPT之父"萨姆·奥特曼在一次深度专访中，给出了一个全新时间表预测：到2030年，人工智能将在所有维度上超越人类。 他引用数据说，社会上一半的工作岗位每75年就会更替一次，而AI将把这个周期急剧缩短。 Stability AI前CEO、缔造者Emad Mostaque则将这个时间点提前了两年多，并进一步"预想"：未来1000天内，人工智能不仅将取代人类工作岗位，更将彻 底重塑人类的经济结构。 他认为，在智能崛起（Intelligence Inversion）的这个当下阶段，AI将主导GDP增长，人类智能将被机器智能替代，大量认知劳动将被AI智能体取代——毕 竟，Agent廉价且高效。 这种冲击主要不是通过裁员，而是企业显著减少了招聘新人来实现的——也就是说，多数初级岗位不再放出招聘岗位。 对比下资深员工反而受益。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The AI development is proposed to evolve through three stages: from General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) to Super Artificial Intelligence (ASI), with a significant investment of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over three years to create a "Super AI Cloud" [2][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of open-source ecosystems and aims to establish Alibaba as a global full-stack AI service provider, with strategic initiatives to enhance AI capabilities and infrastructure [11] - Continuous monitoring of domestic AI infrastructure manufacturers' business progress and investments is recommended, with a focus on the commercialization of AI agents and related investment opportunities [11] Summary by Sections Event Description - The 2025 Cloud Habitat Conference will take place from September 24 to 26, 2025, in Hangzhou, where Alibaba's CEO outlined the AI development path and announced a 380 billion yuan investment plan [2][5] Event Commentary - The report highlights the transition from AGI to ASI, emphasizing the need for advanced model capabilities and the establishment of a global AI service ecosystem [11] - Key highlights include the launch of flagship models and the enhancement of full-stack AI infrastructure, showcasing Alibaba's commitment to becoming a leader in AI technology [11]

加码AI，阿里市值日增近3000亿港元 在9月24日举行的2025杭州云栖大会上，阿里云宣布和英伟达在Physical AI（物理人工智能）领域达成 合作，整合英伟达用于机器人和自动驾驶汽车训练的 AI 开发工具。与此同时， CEO吴泳铭在主旨演讲 中表示，未来五年全球 AI 投资预计达 4 万亿美元，阿里必须保持同步。阿里正积极推进今年 2 月公布 的计划——未来三年投入 3800 亿元用于云和 AI 硬件基础设施建设，并计划追加更大的投入，不过未 透露具体增加金额。当天阿里港股大涨超9 %，创近三年新高，市值日增近3000亿港元。 点评：阿里一系列动作，推动市场对其信心回升。本月阿里股价已累计上涨超四成，年内涨幅接近翻 倍。截至9月26日收盘，阿里港股总市值达到3.2万亿港元。美股方面，华尔街明星基金经理"木头姐"凯 茜•伍德（CathieWood）旗下基金本周重启对阿里巴巴持仓，这是四年来的首次。吴泳铭表示，AI 和云 计算与电商并列为阿里增长引擎，他认为，AGI已是确定性事件，但这只是起点，终极目标是发展出能 自我迭代的超级人工智能ASI。 Meta 再挖 OpenAI墙脚；摩尔线程IPO过会。 英伟 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba's CEO, Wu Yongming, asserts that AI will become the next generation operating system, with a focus on advancing towards Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) [1] - The market reacted positively to these statements, with Alibaba's stock rising over 6%, reaching its highest point since October 2021 [1] Group 1: AI Integration in Automotive Industry - Several automotive companies, including Li Auto, BYD, and NIO, have introduced AI agents into their smart cockpits, enabling features like voice-activated food ordering while driving [2] - The initial applications of these AI agents are relatively simple, focusing on navigation, food ordering, and ride-hailing, but the ultimate goal is to create a seamless "human-vehicle-life" interaction [2][3] - Li Auto's AI agent, "Li Xiang," aims to enhance its capabilities with environmental awareness and comprehensive memory, allowing for more complex interactions [2] Group 2: Technical Frameworks for AI Agents - Li Auto employs two frameworks for its AI agent: CUA (Cockpit Using Agent) and MCP/A2A (Multi-Channel Processing/Agent-to-Agent) [2][3] - CUA involves multi-modal large model understanding tasks and executing them through apps, while MCP/A2A allows the AI agent to delegate tasks to third-party agents for efficiency [3][4] - The accuracy of current AI agents in completing complex tasks is around 30%, indicating a need for improved predictive capabilities [3] Group 3: Future Developments in AI Capabilities - Li Auto's vision for its AI agent includes "full information memory," which encompasses user actions, environmental interactions, and semantic memory regarding relationships [5] - The AI agent is expected to not only remember user behaviors but also proactively assist by mimicking past actions, enhancing user experience [5] - Environmental perception is crucial for the AI agent, enabling it to recognize real-world cues and complete tasks autonomously [5][6] Group 4: Industry Perspectives on AI - Wu Yongming emphasizes that for AI to surpass human capabilities, it must continuously interact with the physical world to gather comprehensive data [6] - The advancement of autonomous driving technology is cited as an example of how AI learns from raw data to improve performance [6]

截至2025年9月25日 10:44，上证科创板芯片指数上涨0.64%，成分股晶合集成上涨13.37%，华虹公司上 涨5.67%，中科飞测上涨5.16%，海光信息上涨3.62%，思特威上涨2.47%。科创芯片ETF(588200)上涨 0.48%， 冲击4连涨。拉长时间看，截至2025年9月24日，科创芯片ETF近1周累计上涨9.88%。 流动性方面，科创芯片ETF盘中换手5.76%，成交21.72亿元。拉长时间看，截至9月24日，科创芯片ETF 近1周日均成交54.39亿元，排名可比基金第一。 规模方面，科创芯片ETF近1周规模增长38.29亿元，实现显著增长，新增规模位居可比基金第一。份额 方面，科创芯片ETF近1周份额增长4.32亿份，实现显著增长，新增份额位居可比基金第一。资金流入 方面，科创芯片ETF最新资金净流入4.56亿元。拉长时间看，近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸 金"17.58亿元。 截至9月24日，科创芯片ETF近2年净值上涨124.89%，指数股票型基金排名8/2331，居于前0.34%。从收 益能力看，截至2025年9月24日，科创芯片ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为35.0 ...

1. 吴泳铭表示，将在3800亿元AI基础设施的建设上，追加更大的投入。 今年初，阿里巴巴港股的市值还只有1.5万亿港元左右，9个多月后，阿里巴巴不仅实现了市值翻倍，还创下了近4年的股价新高。 在阿里巴巴市值翻倍的这9个月里，每当"吴泳铭""AI""投资"三个关键词同时出现时，阿里的股价通常都会迎来一波大涨。 今年2月，吴泳铭宣布阿里将在未来三年投入至少3800亿元建设云和AI硬件基础设施，随后阿里股价在10个交易日内累计上涨超过35%；在Q2财报电话会 上，吴泳铭再一次重申阿里对AI投入的决心，配合二季度阿里云的超预期表现，阿里巴巴美股一夜上涨13.5%。 最近一次，则是在9月24日举办的2025云栖大会上，吴泳铭宣布未来计划追加更大的投入，阿里港股股价盘中大幅拉升，最终收涨9.16%，总市值来到3.32 万亿港元。 在两股情绪并存的市场上，计划投入3800亿，要做AI时代基础设施的阿里云为什么得到了更多的"支持票"？ 不确定的泡沫和确定的AGI 本月初，美国科技公司甲骨文发布截至8月的2026财年第一财季报告，财报显示，未实现履约义务（尚未确认的已签约收入）已经达到4550亿美元，同比 增长359%，并且 ...

题图来自：视觉中国 从AGI到ASI，阿里果然是造词担当。 阿里集团CEO、阿里云董事长吴泳铭在9月24日的阿里云栖大会上提出观点：实现通用人工智能AGI只 是起点，发展出能自我迭代、全面超越人类的超级人工智能ASI才是终极目标。 维特根斯坦说，语言的边界就是世界的边界。 跳出原有语言体系的表达，确实让人印象深刻，恍如新世界的大门就在眼前。 姚顺雨在今年4月发布的博客《The second Half》提到，AI下半场已经开始，"评估比训练更重要""通过 把智能转化为有用的产品，打造出数十亿甚至万亿美元的公司。" 这些参与"下半场"的创业公司，显然是各大云平台的潜在客户。阿里云需要尽可能多地把它们搞到手。 淘金者可能穷困潦倒，但卖铲子的人总能富得流油。 阿里云已经吃到甜头。根据2025年二季度财报，阿里云收入333.98亿元，同比增长26%，增速创三年新 高，其中AI收入已经占阿里云外部商业化收入超20%。 它的模式已经清晰。 吴泳铭在演讲中重点提到了"两个判断"（两个产品）： 1、大模型是下一代OS。通义千问开源300多款模型，做AI时代的andriod。 别管ASI是否会重蹈"新零售"的覆辙，反正股价已经信 ...

2025云栖大会首日，阿里巴巴集团CEO、阿里云智能集团董事长兼CEO吴泳铭发表主旨演讲。 商报讯（记者 吕文鹃）"AGI并非AI发展的终点，而是全新的起点。AI不会止步于AGI，它将迈向超越 人类智能、能够自我迭代进化的超级人工智能（ASI）。"在2025云栖大会开幕首日，阿里巴巴集团 CEO、阿里云智能集团董事长兼CEO吴泳铭发表主旨演讲，首次系统阐述了通往ASI的三阶段演进路 线。 AI行业发展的速度远超预期，行业对AI基础设施的需求同样也远超预期，当AI继续向前演进，一个全 新的ASI时代会是怎样的？那时的人类和AI又会是怎样的协作关系？在广大开发者的推动下，中国乃至 全球的云计算、AI和科技行业迎来了前所未有的发展浪潮，而一场由人工智能驱动的智能化革命才刚 刚开始。 "AGI并非终点" 吴泳铭阐述通往ASI的三阶段 从"学习人"到"辅助人"，最后再到"超越人"，吴泳铭将通往ASI的路分为三个阶段。在第一阶段，AI通 过学习海量人类知识具备泛化智能。过去几十年的互联网发展，为智能涌现提供了基础。在这些已构成 的基础之上，大模型首先通过理解全世界的知识集合，具备了泛化的智能能力，涌现出通用对话能力， 可 ...

编辑丨朱益民 许久不见，阿里在一日之内，"利好"堆积如山。 9月24日，杭州云栖小镇成为全球科技界的焦点。阿里巴巴云栖大会以"云智一体·碳硅共生"为 主题科技大会，发布了包括新的"ASI"概念，海量算力投入计划，以及超节点高密度算力集群 设备发布，并再次点燃了资本市场对阿里与AI产业链的热情。 无独有偶，就在隔夜，被华尔街俗称"木头姐"凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）披露了其方舟投资 （Ark investment）的投资组合，其中方舟投资旗下ETF向中概股投资了约2100万美元，涉及 的股票包括阿里巴巴集团、百度和小马智行等中国科技股。其中买入阿里的金额达到1613万美 元。 在云栖大会与著名市场"作手"的加持下，9月24日收盘，阿里巴巴港股（09988.HK）收涨 9.16%，报174.0港元/股， 总市值来到3.3万亿港元以上 。 记者丨赵云帆 最引人关注的是阿里云对算力基础设施的巨额投入。 吴泳铭表示："为了迎接ASI时代的到 来，对比2022年这个GenAI的元年，到2032年阿里云全球数据中心的能耗规模将提升10 倍。"这意味着阿里云算力投入将指数级提升。 阿里云还展示了超大规模集群、分布式训 ...