【华泰计算机】Agenticcoding的加速崛起对软件/算力的影响 12025年是Agent元年，2026年将是Agent爆发的年份，体现在两方面：一是Agentic Coding（智能体编码）的迭代速 度会大幅加快；二是国内外大厂会激烈争夺个人Agent助手的超级入口，均会成为下一轮token加速的重要推手。 这种爆发，不仅会带来算力需求数量级的提升，也会带来存储和CPU新的结构性需求。 【华泰计算机】Agenticcoding的加速崛起对软件/算力的影响 12025年是Agent元年，2026年将是Agent爆发的年份，体现在两方面：一是Agentic Coding（智能体编码）的迭代速 度会大幅加快；二是国内外大厂会激烈争夺个人Agent助手的超级入口，均会成为下一轮token加速的重要推手。 这种爆发，不仅会带来算力需求数量级的提升，也会带来存储和CPU新的结构性需求。 当前算力通胀的链条正从存储、先进封装、CPU，向云服务和数据中心传导。 2它们有两个显著特点：1）200K tokens的超长上下文；cowork要加知识库来永久性的存储用户资料，这些都指向 了存储需求的增加，且呈现出从HBM逐步外 ...

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 27 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：进退两难的日元再度迎来"干预窗口" 上周五（1 月 23 日），日元在日央行发布会后以及美国交易时间出现快速升 值，截至周一（1 月 26 日）的两个交易日内累计升值 2.6%至 154.2 日元/美 元，背后主要是美国和日本释放出"利率检查"（"rate check"）信号，市场 猜测美日未来或联合干预日元汇率。历史上，日本当局在"利率检查"后较 短时间内就会启动汇率干预，若外汇干预落地，短期或推动日元升值。鉴于 日央行货币政策大幅落后于利率曲线，或已错失"优雅转身"的最佳时间窗 口：日本财政扩张预期叠加利率落后于曲线，日债收益率或易上难下，日元 资产亦或进入高波动阶段。 风险提示：日本众议院选举结果超预期；日本通胀水平超预期。 研报发布日期：2026-01-26 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH374 宏观：1 月 FOMC ...

2025 年智能体全面爆发。但实际落地中，编码领域的智能体成为核心突破点，其中 Anthropic 的 Claude Code 表现尤为突 出。 整理 | 褚杏娟 根据 YC 最新数据，Anthropic 的模型份额突破 52%，正式超越长期霸主 OpenAI。2024 年到 2025 年初，Anthropic 的份额大 多维持在 25% 左右，但在过去 3 到 6 个月中实现了"曲棍球棒"式的陡峭增长。这种转变的核心驱动力在于 Anthropic 优秀的编 写代码能力，这让它成为许多开发人员的首选工具，并渗透到其他使用场景。 近期，Anthropic 首席产品官 Mike Krieger 做客"AI Daily Brief"节目，系统梳理了"vibe coding"在未来的发展方向。 从 Claude 早期对编程能力的聚焦，到像 Claude Code 这样更广泛应用智能体的兴起，他详细拆解了软件工程师、非技术背景 的创作者，以及希望从聊天机器人迈向真正 Agent 化工作流、底层基础设施以及可量化投资回报的企业团队，正在面临的问 题，以及 Anthropic 为此将在 2026 年进行的优化方向，比如重点 ...

Core Insights - The emergence of AI Agents is significantly reducing labor costs in software development, potentially allowing projects that previously took weeks or months to be completed in just hours or a week [1][4] - The article discusses the transformative impact of AI tools on development processes and suggests that 2026 may mark a pivotal turning point for the industry [1] Software Delivery Costs - The initial wave of cost reduction in custom software development was driven by the rise of open-source solutions, which eliminated high licensing fees associated with proprietary databases [2] - The complexity of software engineering has increased in recent years, leading to a perception that development costs have not decreased significantly [2] Cost Savings from AI Agents - AI Agents are expected to drastically lower labor costs in software development, with the potential for a 90% reduction in costs [5][4] - Traditional development processes require a small team for tasks such as CI/CD setup, data access organization, and extensive testing, which can take a month to complete [5] - With AI Agents, these processes can be completed in a matter of hours, allowing for rapid development and reduced communication overhead [6] Release of Potential Demand - The reduction in production costs does not merely lead to lower spending but can result in increased demand for software solutions, as illustrated by the Jevons Paradox [7] - Many companies have significant untapped software needs, and lowering development costs could lead to a surge in demand for new applications [8] Importance of Domain Knowledge - Despite the advancements in AI, human oversight remains crucial to ensure quality and direction in software development [10] - Developers who master AI tools will become highly efficient in solving business problems, leveraging their domain knowledge to enhance productivity [10] Future of Software Development - The combination of business experts and skilled developers using AI tools will enable rapid iteration and development, potentially reducing the need for large teams [11] - The industry is on the brink of significant change, with the potential for software development to evolve faster than anticipated as AI technology continues to advance [12] AI in Legacy Code Management - AI Agents can simplify the understanding and maintenance of legacy code, making it easier to identify bugs and suggest fixes [13]

Please join me in envisioning a world where software has zero bugs. Not just a few bugs, but actually literally zero bugs. Okay. Okay.Just bear with me now. So for most people, let's just say people who aren't software engineers, bugs are actually just not a very big part of their life. Period.Most of the apps that we use on our phones, our social media, our news, that stuff pretty much works most of the time. The camera works most of the time. Any of those most popular apps, banking, they work really well ...

Core Insights - HubSpot is leveraging AI advancements to enhance its marketing tools, particularly through its AI assistant, Breeze, which automates various marketing functions [1][7] - The company reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, with revenues of $760.9 million, a 19% year-over-year increase, and subscription revenue of $744.5 million, also up 19% [9] - Despite a year-to-date stock decline of 35%, analysts remain optimistic about HubSpot's ability to compete in the evolving AI landscape, with a Strong Buy consensus rating [10][11] Company Overview - HubSpot, established in 2006, offers a cloud-based marketing software platform that addresses challenges in CRM, social media, content management, and SEO [2] - The platform is popular among inbound sales teams, direct marketers, and customer service professionals [2] AI Integration - HubSpot is utilizing agentic AI to allow users to create and modify their own AI tools, enhancing flexibility in online marketing [7] - The company is developing various AI agents, including prospecting, closing, personalization, and data agents, to automate time-consuming tasks [7] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, HubSpot's revenue reached $760.9 million, exceeding expectations by $20.8 million, with earnings of $2.19 per share, surpassing forecasts by 7 cents [9] - The company had $1.9 billion in liquid assets at the end of Q2 [9] Market Position and Analyst Outlook - Analysts, including Ryan MacWilliams from Wells Fargo, believe HubSpot is well-positioned to monetize agentic AI and maintain a competitive edge due to its established customer base and data [11] - The stock has a price target of $685, indicating a potential upside of 51.5% over the next year, supported by a Strong Buy consensus from 29 analysts [11]

Core Insights - Nuvini Group Limited has reported significant productivity improvements following the transition of its development teams to AI-driven coding platforms, with developers experiencing an average productivity increase of 40% and the top quartile achieving up to 8x improvements [1][2][3] Company Overview - Nuvini is a leading serial acquirer and operator of B2B SaaS companies in Latin America, focusing on acquiring profitable, high-growth SaaS businesses with strong recurring revenue and cash flow generation [4] - The company aims to foster an entrepreneurial environment to enable its portfolio companies to scale and maintain industry leadership, with a long-term vision of creating value through strategic partnerships and operational expertise [4] AI Integration and Future Strategy - The integration of AI-native development processes is expected to enhance operational efficiency across Nuvini's portfolio and become a cornerstone of its M&A strategy, unlocking new value creation levers [3] - Nuvini's CEO emphasized that the shift to agentic coding is not just about hype but about delivering faster and more reliable outcomes, which will allow for reinvestment in new acquisitions [3]

Core Insights - The user behavior of ChatGPT shows that non-work-related messages account for approximately 73% of usage, while Claude is primarily used for work-related tasks, particularly in programming and enhancing human capabilities [1][5] - OpenAI's latest funding round has valued the company at $300 billion, while Anthropic has reached a valuation of $183 billion, indicating significant market interest [4] - Anthropic's focus on coding and agent capabilities has positioned it as a leader in the Agentic Coding space, with its product Claude Code achieving an ARR of $400 million within six months [5][11] OpenAI vs. Anthropic - OpenAI has maintained a comprehensive development approach, enhancing reasoning and multimodal capabilities, while Anthropic has carved out a niche in coding and tool usage [1][5] - The challenge for companies like Anthropic is to avoid being trapped in the technological roadmap set by OpenAI, which can limit innovation [12][15] Market Response and Competition - Chinese AI companies have recently recognized that OpenAI's path is not the only viable option, leading to a faster pursuit of alternatives like Anthropic [6][8] - New models from Chinese firms, such as Kimi K2 and Qwen3-Coder, are emerging to compete with Claude Code, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [7][8] Anthropic's Strategic Shifts - Anthropic's strategic pivot began with the release of Claude 3.5 Sonnet, which emphasized its capabilities in real-world coding tasks, marking a departure from merely following OpenAI's lead [9] - The introduction of the Model Context Protocol has allowed for scalable tool usage, becoming a de facto industry standard [10] Future Outlook - Anthropic's success in the Agentic Coding domain has elevated its valuation and positioned it as a formidable competitor to OpenAI [11] - The AI industry must encourage more innovative thinkers to avoid being constrained by existing leaders' paths, as exemplified by the approaches of Kimi and DeepSeek [16][17]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $11.7 million, an 18% increase year over year [4][30] - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was approximately $78.1 million, reflecting a 17% year over year decrease but a 5% sequential increase [30] - Adjusted gross profit was $41 million, representing a 6% year over year increase [4][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Products revenue increased by 34% year over year to $24 million, with an 8% sequential increase [9][30] - Marketing segment revenue was $54.1 million, down 29% year over year but up 4% sequentially [18][30] - Adjusted gross profit for the marketing segment was $20 million, down 17% year over year [18][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The owned and operated products segment showed strong performance, with revenue increasing 34% year over year [5][30] - The partner marketing business saw a 29% sequential increase in average revenue per partner [20][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on leveraging its expertise in agentic coding to modernize legacy technology platforms for other companies [7][8] - There is a strong belief that the product segment alone is undervalued compared to the overall company valuation [17][23] - The company plans to pursue strategic M&A opportunities to enhance its product offerings and market position [46][49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautiously optimistic about the second half of 2025, anticipating stabilization in the Google advertising market [22][34] - The company is confident in the resilience of its business fundamentals and is focused on operational efficiencies [34][35] - Management acknowledges the current volatility in the marketing segment but believes it will stabilize, allowing for growth [22][34] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $63.6 million in unrestricted cash, an increase of approximately $20 million compared to Q1 [33] - There is no guidance provided for 2025 due to ongoing market volatility [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: What KPIs should investors focus on for the product side? - Management emphasized traffic and monetization rates as key metrics, specifically sessions and revenue per session [40][41] Question: Can you provide high-level comments on the second half of the year? - Management indicated that as political spending decreases, they expect to see lower pricing in the advertising market, which could benefit the company [42][44] Question: What are the thoughts on strategic M&A and capital access? - Management expressed confidence in their ability to access capital for strategic acquisitions and highlighted their historical success in M&A [46][49]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter revenue was approximately $75 million, with adjusted gross profit of $41.5 million, reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase [4][21] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $12.1 million, a significant increase from $400,000 in the prior year quarter [5][27] - Overall revenue decreased by 12% year-over-year and 1% sequentially, with owned and operated advertising revenue down 16% year-over-year [22][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Owned and operated products revenue increased by 51% year-over-year, while total owned and operated revenue was $58 million, reflecting a 16% year-over-year decline [5][9] - Marketing-driven businesses experienced a 34% annual revenue decrease, primarily due to a decline in a noncore low gross margin business segment [9][10] - Partner network revenue was $17 million, up 4% year-over-year, with adjusted gross profit of $15 million, a 37% increase year-over-year [14][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue represented 30% of total owned and operated revenue, up from 29% in Q1 of 2024 [10] - Total sessions across owned and operated properties totaled 1.3 billion, down 32% from Q4 but up 6% year-over-year [9][25] - Network partner sessions were 1.7 billion, up 11% year-over-year and down 8% sequentially [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on AI-powered automation through AgenTek coding to increase scale and streamline operations [6][8] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding the reach of couponing, mapping, and private search services [11][12] - The company is cautiously optimistic about the future, despite ongoing volatility with Google, its largest revenue partner [16][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that they have not yet seen material impacts from Google's policy changes, but anticipate continued volatility [17][18] - The transition to an AI-first product and engineering organization is expected to enhance productivity and execution speed [18][63] - The company is currently not providing financial guidance for Q2 due to uncertainties in the advertising market and regulatory changes [28][29] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $43.9 million in unrestricted cash and $275 million in term loan debt [27][28] - The leadership team remains aligned with shareholders, with significant personal investments in the company [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on digital advertising resilience - Management noted that they have not seen any significant issues in their numbers and believe performance marketing may be less affected by macro downturns [34][35] Question: Impact of tariffs on advertising verticals - Management indicated that they have not observed major effects from tariffs in their verticals and are waiting for further clarity on economic conditions [36][37] Question: Regulatory issues with Google - Management expressed that potential regulatory changes could lead to increased competition and opportunities for the company, particularly if Google loses market share [42][44] Question: Opportunities in domestic and international markets - Management highlighted that lower pricing on the buy side due to reduced competition could benefit the company both domestically and internationally [50][52] Question: Productivity gains from agentic coding - Management reported significant productivity increases in product development due to the adoption of agentic coding, allowing for faster execution and innovation [59][63]