All right. Uh, you know, we don't talk a lot about oil recently. Uh, right now we're seeing oil move to the upside on on potential sanctions on Russia and sanctions on Venezuela.Does that change your view of the energy sector in any way. Yesterday, we saw every uh stock in the energy sector close lower. It closed down about 3%.Does it reshape any views for you. >> I think it's still a little bit too early to tell on that. I mean, we're certainly seeing moves, certainly seeing moves this morning on that news ...

Yahoo Finance has officially announced the company of the year. And this year, it's been a company at the center of Wall Street's bet on artificial intelligence, OpenAI. Here's what OpenAI CFO Sarah Frier had to say about the award.>> We're energized to get award like this. It, you know, really cements, I think, what Chat GPT has become, which is the world's default intelligence layer. >> Joining us for more, Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sazy, who helms this whole process for us, picking the company ...

OpenAI alone plans to spend $1.4 trillion in the coming years. But the Sam Altman-led company, which became the world’s most valuable startup in October, is generating far less revenue than its operating costs. It expects to burn $115 billion through 2029 before generating cash in 2030, The Information reported in September.Here’s a look at the key trends to watch while navigating through these choppy waters.Of course, there are still plenty of reasons for optimism. The tech giants that account for much of ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Semiconductors, Hardware, Internet & Software** industry, particularly the **AI server market** and the **AI supply chain** dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investment in Data Centers**: Total investment in upcoming and under-construction data centers is approximately **US$840 billion**. Major projects include OpenAI's agreements with semiconductor and cloud service providers (CSPs) [3][38]. 2. **AI Capital Expenditure (Capex)**: Following 3Q25 earnings, consensus estimates for 2026 capex for major CSPs have been raised by nearly **20%**, projecting total capex to grow at a **36% CAGR** to around **US$630 billion** from 2024 to 2027 [3][37]. 3. **Server Shipment Growth**: Global server and high-end GPU AI server shipments are expected to grow at **3%** and **31% CAGR**, respectively, from 2025 to 2027. High-end GPU server shipments are projected to increase by **46%** in 2026 [4][58]. 4. **ASIC and GPU Demand**: ASIC adoption is increasing, with projections indicating that ASICs will comprise **47%** of total CoWoS-based AI chip shipments in 2026. The demand for TPUs is also expected to grow by approximately **75% YoY** [4][5]. 5. **Financial Performance of Suppliers**: ASIC supply chain stocks have recently outperformed GPU supply chains, driven by significant orders from Broadcom and successful product launches from OpenAI and Google [6][34]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Circular Financing Concerns**: There are concerns regarding "circular financing" among AI giants, particularly with OpenAI's substantial commitments to various suppliers, which may lead to a "too big to fail" scenario [34][35]. 2. **OpenAI's Revenue Projections**: OpenAI's revenue for 1H25 was reported at **US$4.3 billion**, with a target of **US$13 billion** for the full year. However, the company has significant purchase commitments exceeding **US$1 trillion** over the next 5-7 years [35][36]. 3. **Major CSPs' Capex Guidance**: Companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have increased their capex guidance significantly for 2025, indicating a strong focus on AI infrastructure [57]. 4. **Emerging Neoclouds**: Neoclouds are gaining traction with flexible "build-to-order" models, showcasing a growing revenue backlog and partnerships with major tech firms [43]. Investment Ratings and Price Targets - **Chroma**: Rated Outperform, Price Target (PT) = NT$830 [11] - **Delta**: Rated Outperform, PT = NT$1190 [12] - **Unimicron**: Rated Outperform, PT = NT$220 [13] - **Quanta**: Rated Underperform, PT = NT$250 [14] - **Google**: Rated Market-Perform, PT = $305 [15] - **Meta**: Rated Outperform, PT = $870 [16] - **Amazon**: Rated Outperform, PT = $300 [17] - **Microsoft**: Rated Outperform, PT = $645 [18] - **AMD**: Rated Market-Perform, PT = $200 [19] - **NVIDIA**: Rated Outperform, PT = $275 [21] - **TSMC**: Rated Outperform, PT = NT$1,444 [25] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the significant trends, financial projections, and investment opportunities within the AI server and semiconductor industries.

It is the first day of December, and actually a couple of hours ago, we started things looking pretty bleak. And Nvidia has turned a corner, which has kind of changed a little bit the tone, but basically tech lower, crypto lower and we started December risk off mode. Why.Yeah. I mean, we had a really solid rally last week, you know, on those expectations that the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates in December. But as we start of this new week, there's been a a turnaround in that sentiment.And I ...

Market Sentiment - The beginning of December has seen a shift in market sentiment, with technology and cryptocurrency sectors experiencing declines after a solid rally in the previous week due to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's Governor has adopted a more hawkish tone, raising expectations for a December rate hike, which has contributed to the current risk-off sentiment in the market [2][3] Impact on Carry Trade - Concerns are growing regarding the unwinding of the carry trade, where investors borrow in low-interest yen to invest in higher-yielding assets. A potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan could lead to repatriation of funds back to Japan [3][4] - The ten-year yield in Japan has reached a 17-year high, which may further exacerbate the unwinding of the carry trade and impact liquidity-sensitive sectors like technology and cryptocurrency [3][4] NVIDIA and Market Concerns - NVIDIA has faced significant pressure in the market, but recent comments suggest a potential turnaround in sentiment, although concerns regarding secular financing remain prevalent [6][7][8] - The latest earnings report from NVIDIA was positive, indicating strong performance despite market nervousness surrounding secular financing and its implications for the ecosystem [11][13] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing challenges, with institutional demand remaining weak. November saw significant outflows from ETFs, totaling 3.48 billion, marking one of the worst months for the sector [15][16] - The unwinding of the yen carry trade is causing fears of reduced liquidity, which is particularly detrimental to the cryptocurrency market [15][16]

Core Insights - NVIDIA reported record revenue of $57 billion for the third quarter, exceeding Wall Street expectations and providing a positive forecast amid concerns about an AI bubble [2][3] - The company anticipates total revenue of approximately $203 billion for 2025, with the current quarter projected to reach $65 billion, reflecting a 65% year-over-year growth [3] - CEO Jensen Huang emphasized strong demand for AI chips and highlighted a sales pipeline worth half a trillion dollars for 2025 and 2026 [2][3] Financial Dynamics - NVIDIA's optimistic outlook includes expectations of around $500 billion in revenue potential from AI chips in 2025-2026, supported by significant investments in customer companies [7] - The company announced a potential investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, aimed at expanding data center capacity and ensuring a return flow to NVIDIA [8] - NVIDIA also invested $1 billion in Nokia to collaborate on AI-driven telecommunications and 6G technology, which may lead to further purchases of NVIDIA hardware [9] Investment Strategy - NVIDIA has engaged in over 50 venture capital deals in 2025, investing $23.7 billion in AI companies, with many recipients likely using funds to purchase NVIDIA chips [10] - Critics argue that this creates a circular financing dynamic, where NVIDIA's investments enable recipients to buy its chips, potentially masking underlying risks [11] Insider Activity - There has been a notable increase in insider stock sales at NVIDIA in 2025, with 258 trades totaling approximately -$221.8 million, coinciding with a 6.6% rise in stock price [12] - The uptick in insider selling may indicate executives sensing peak valuations, suggesting that investors should consider realizing gains and reducing exposure [12] Market Position - NVIDIA's growth is driven by AI's transformative potential, but the interplay of circular financing and insider selling raises questions about the sustainability of its rally [13] - Investors are encouraged to reassess their positions and consider trimming or diversifying their holdings as the market dynamics evolve [13]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Friday following declines on Thursday, with major benchmark indices showing positive futures [1][2] - Thursday's trading saw a broad selloff on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping over 400 points [1] - Risk-off sentiment returned sharply, particularly affecting AI-linked stocks and crypto markets [1] Treasury Bonds and Interest Rates - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.11%, while the two-year bond was at 3.58% [2] - Markets are pricing a 65.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December [2] Stock Performance - Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) rose 2.08% after shareholders approved a significant pay package for CEO Elon Musk [5] - IREN Ltd. (NASDAQ:IREN) increased by 5.18% after reporting first-quarter revenue of $240.3 million, exceeding estimates [5] - Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE:ACHR) fell 8.33% after reporting a third-quarter loss of 20 cents per share and announcing an acquisition for $126 million [5] - Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ:TTWO) dropped 6.26% despite better-than-expected second-quarter results, citing delays in the release of "Grand Theft Auto VI" [11] - Expedia Group Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) surged 15.23% after posting stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and raising its full-year outlook [11] Sector Performance - Most sectors in the S&P 500 closed negatively, with communication services, consumer discretionary, and information technology experiencing the largest losses [6] - Energy and health care sectors bucked the trend, closing higher [6] Analyst Insights - Major tech companies are investing heavily in artificial intelligence, with capital expenditures projected to reach $600.1 billion by 2027, up from $155.1 billion in 2023 [9][10] - Despite the significant investments, the large language model business leveraging these technologies remains unprofitable, raising concerns about "circular financing" [10] - Analysts are flagging the use of Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to manage risk, drawing parallels to past financial scandals [11]

Core Insights - OpenAI's $660 billion commitment across multiple cloud providers highlights NVIDIA's pricing power challenges [16][17][19] - Amazon's dual strategy positions it favorably in the AI infrastructure market, leveraging both NVIDIA GPUs and its custom Trainium2 chips [4][32][35] Group 1: Amazon's Strategic Moves - Amazon's $38 billion deal with OpenAI boosted its stock by 5%, while NVIDIA's shares rose by 3%, indicating market confidence in AWS's AI capabilities [1] - Anthropic, OpenAI's competitor, is utilizing 500,000 of Amazon's Trainium2 chips, which are projected to scale to over 1 million by year-end, showcasing Amazon's competitive edge [2] - Trainium2 is reported to deliver 30-40% better price-performance for training workloads compared to GPU-based instances, translating to significant cost savings for Anthropic [5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - OpenAI's reliance on NVIDIA's GPUs contrasts with Anthropic's use of Amazon's custom silicon, which could disrupt NVIDIA's market dominance and threaten its $5 trillion market cap [3][12] - The shift in AI infrastructure economics is evident as leading cloud providers, including Amazon and Google, ramp up in-house chip development, reducing dependency on NVIDIA [13][14] - NVIDIA's market share is projected to decline from 95% in 2024 to 60% by 2027, while Trainium2 is expected to capture 38% of the market [16] Group 3: Circular Economy Concerns - A significant portion of AI infrastructure demand is circular, with Amazon's investments in companies like Anthropic leading to increased AWS revenue, which in turn justifies further capital expenditures [21][22] - Analysts express concerns about the sustainability of AWS's growth, questioning how much of it is driven by organic demand versus circular revenue from invested companies [24] - The potential for a tech stock correction looms if AI productivity gains are limited or delayed, impacting the broader economy [25] Group 4: Investment Implications - The competition between OpenAI's NVIDIA ecosystem and Anthropic's Trainium2 represents a pivotal moment in AI infrastructure economics [32] - For NVIDIA shareholders, the company is transitioning from an "irreplaceable monopoly" to a leading semiconductor firm with normalizing margins, which may compress its valuation multiple [33] - Amazon's strategy of supporting both NVIDIA and custom silicon positions it as a key player in the evolving AI infrastructure landscape [35]

Group 1 - The article highlights Blue Owl Capital Inc (NYSE:OWL) as a trending stock to watch in the context of AI investments [1] - James Van Geelen from Citrini Research suggests hedging risks in the AI space by investing in companies building data centers while shorting Blue Owl and similar private credit firms [1] - The rationale behind this strategy is that companies constructing data centers have unlimited upside potential, whereas private credit firms face limited upside and significant downside risks [1] Group 2 - The article expresses a belief that certain AI stocks offer higher return potential with limited downside risk [2] - It mentions the existence of an extremely cheap AI stock that benefits from Trump tariffs and onshoring, encouraging readers to access a report on this stock [2]