Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in lithium carbonate prices is driven by multiple factors, including supply agreements, policy support for energy storage, market sentiment, and seasonal demand expectations [3][4][5][6]. Supply Side Analysis - PLS and Tianyi Lithium Industry signed a two-year agreement for lithium spodumene concentrate with a minimum price of $1,000/ton, providing price stability and boosting market confidence in lithium prices [3]. - As of February 5, lithium carbonate production decreased to 21,800 tons, a 2.68% decline from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.81% [7]. - The supply is expected to contract further in February due to holiday-related production halts and maintenance, with CIF prices for 6.0% spodumene dropping to $2,000/ton, a decrease of $350/ton [8]. Demand Side Analysis - The domestic energy storage system bidding scale increased by 13.7% month-on-month in January, indicating strong demand growth supported by new policies [4]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is showing a divergence, with lithium iron phosphate maintaining a high capacity utilization rate of 73%, while ternary materials are at 62% due to declining sales from electric vehicle manufacturers [11]. - In January, China's automotive production and sales remained stable, with new energy vehicle sales showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [11]. Market Sentiment and Trading Dynamics - There was a net inflow of 1.1 billion yuan into lithium carbonate contracts, with bullish sentiment reflected in rising prices and increased trading volumes [5]. - The market is experiencing a seasonal rhythm, with expectations of demand recovery post-holiday, driven by factors such as electric vehicle exports and energy storage policy support [6]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased to 104,000 tons, a 0.73% decline, indicating a continued destocking trend across various market segments [14]. Summary of Market Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics indicate a strong upward trend in lithium carbonate prices, supported by supply constraints and robust demand from the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [15][17]. - The market is advised to monitor post-holiday demand recovery and the pace of overseas mining resumption, as these factors will significantly influence future price movements [17][18].

证券研究报告 工业/能源 储能需求向好，低价内卷转向 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 11 日│中国内地 动态点评 刘俊 研究员 SAC No. S0570523110003 SFC No. AVM464 徐嘉欣* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070136 xujiaxin@htsc.com 行业走势图 karlliu@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 边文姣 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110004 SFC No. BSJ399 王嵩 研究员 SAC No. S0570525110001 SFC No. BLE051 苗雨菲 研究员 miaoyufei@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 戚腾元 研究员 SAC No. S0570524080002 SFC No. BVU938 +(86) 21 2897 2228 李科毅* 联系人 +(86) 10 6321 1166 SAC No. S0570125030018 likeyi@htsc.com (11) 3 16 30 43 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 (%) 电力 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 市场冷清，行情震荡 市场分析 2026-02-10，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于136500元/吨，收于137340元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化0.03%。当日 成交量为295231手，持仓量为345989手，前一交易日持仓量344071手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-4000元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单35537手，较上个交易日变化940手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价132000-140000元/吨，较前一交易日变化500元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价129000-136000元/吨，较前一交易日变化500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1965美元/吨，较前一日变化0美元/吨。当前 下游材料厂为2月的备库已基本接近尾声，多数企业转向谨慎观望，采购心理价位偏低，仅少数厂家仍维持刚需采 购。整体来看，市场询价与成交情况稍显清淡。 根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为105463吨，环比-2019吨。其中冶炼厂库存为18356吨，环比-647吨；下游库 存为43657吨，环比+3058吨；其他库存为43450吨，环比-4430吨。2月需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, driven by the growing demand in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, alongside strategic initiatives to enhance overseas financing capabilities and production capacity in Southeast Asia [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.3 billion to 2.4 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 93.18% to 101.58%, primarily due to increased demand in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, as well as improvements in operational efficiency [2]. Related Transactions - In January 2026, the company increased its stake in a subsidiary from 55% to 60%, with the target of enhancing supply chain collaboration, promising an annual increase in net profit attributable to the parent company of 25 million to 30 million yuan over the next three years [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to strengthen its overseas financing capabilities, while also shifting its overseas production focus to Southeast Asia, exploring capacity construction for anode materials and separator films as part of its globalization strategy [4]. Performance Targets - The company has set ambitious shipment targets for 2026, including 250,000 tons of anode materials, 13 billion square meters of coated separators, 2 to 2.5 billion square meters of base films, and over 40,000 tons of PVDF, with plans to accelerate production through projects like the Sichuan base [5]. Recent Stock Performance - On June 13, 2025, the company was removed from the CSI 300 Index sample stocks, an adjustment based on market capitalization and liquidity metrics, which may affect certain passive fund allocations [6]. Product Development Progress - The company has made breakthroughs in solid-state battery equipment and silicon-carbon anodes, with cumulative orders for solid-state equipment exceeding 200 million yuan by 2025, and new products entering the customer evaluation phase [7].

21世纪经济报道记者卢陶然、李德尚玉 北京报道 "十五五"期间，我国力争建成100个左右国家级零碳园区。作为首批入选者，北京经济技术开发区（简称"北京经开区"）正以区内新能源与智 能网联汽车产业为核心开展零碳园区建设。然而，一项关键指标的巨大落差，成为横亘在前的挑战。 "扣除绿电贡献后，北京经开区的单位能耗碳排放指标达1.6吨二氧化碳/吨标准煤，远高于国家发展改革委要求的0.2吨二氧化碳/吨标准煤。"近 日，在2026零碳未来大会上，北京经济技术开发区管委会经济发展局相关负责人介绍，这是未来几年建设的最大难点，而"绿电从哪来"是当下 面临的难题。 面对挑战，该负责人透露，北京经开区正谋划建设一个融合AI算力的能碳智慧管理平台，旨在协同调度虚拟电厂、储能设施、绿电交易和碳 排放因子，未来还将嵌入金融、项目库、安全监管等功能，力图实现能源与碳流的精细化、智能化管理。 从1.6到0.2的减碳挑战 "测算显示，2024年即便在本次划定的申报范围内，扣除绿电贡献后，单位能耗碳排放指标仍高达1.6。"该负责人介绍，北京经开区建成零碳 园区，目前最大的难点就在于减碳压力大。 根据国家发展改革委对国家级零碳园区的核心指标要求 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The market expectation of lithium carbonate has warmed up, and the disk has stabilized in shock. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the Spring Festival, as there are still many uncertainties [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 137,340 yuan/ton, with the trading volume dropping to 295,200 lots and the open interest increasing to 345,900 lots. The net short position of the main funds continued, and the long - short ratio of the net position increased month - on - month. The daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GZFE increased by 940 lots to 35,537 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 136,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton. The Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over, with most enterprises having a low psychological purchase price, being cautious and waiting and seeing, and the market inquiry and trading being relatively light [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material market generally declined. The SMM total weekly operating rate was 47.29% (-2.21%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,744 tons (-825 tons) [4]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales increased to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. The energy - storage battery cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [4]. - **Inventory**: According to SMM data, last week, the social inventory of the four - place samples increased by 3.73% month - on - month to 43,050 tons, the weekly inventory of the samples decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, the total inventory days increased to 30 days, and the downstream inventory days increased to 11.8 days (+9.26% month - on - month), showing passive inventory accumulation, structural differentiation, and poor transmission [4]. Macro - policy Analysis - **Demand - side**: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and tax rebates for battery exports stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5]. - **Supply - side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost support center [5]. - **Industrial Planning**: The industrial planning of Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of energy - storage during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support the long - term supply - demand balance [5]. - **Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5].

Core Viewpoint - The petroleum coke market in China is expected to experience strong fluctuations in 2026, with a structural differentiation in supply and demand, particularly in the low-sulfur coke segment, which is likely to remain tight [1] Group 1: Market Performance in 2025 - In 2025, the petroleum coke market exhibited a significant upward trend, with the price rising from 1615 RMB/ton on January 1 to 2598.25 RMB/ton by December 31, marking an annual increase of 60.88% [2] - The price surge was driven by supply constraints and increased downstream stocking demand, particularly before the Spring Festival, leading to a tight supply situation [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, prices fluctuated due to an influx of imported petroleum coke and a cautious demand outlook from downstream sectors [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Analysts predict a slowdown in the growth of new petroleum coke production capacity in 2026, with limited supply increases expected [5] - The peak period for delayed coking capacity expansion ended in 2022, and the new cycle from 2026 to 2030 will see a significant reduction in the pace of capacity growth [5] - New capacity additions are primarily focused on refinery upgrades, with a projected total of 9.5 million tons of new delayed coking capacity expected from 2026 to 2030, mainly in East China [5] Group 3: Demand Trends - The demand for petroleum coke is expected to remain strong, driven by stable needs in the aluminum carbon industry and increasing orders for negative electrode materials in energy storage and power applications [6] - The calcination process remains the most critical intermediary for petroleum coke, with significant growth anticipated in the calcined coke sector from 2026 to 2027 [6] - The negative electrode materials market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with a production volume of approximately 2.95 million tons in 2025 and a utilization rate of 77.6% [6][7] Group 4: Price Outlook - The price of low-sulfur coke is expected to remain high due to tight supply, while medium-sulfur coke will rely on traditional industrial demand, and high-sulfur coke prices are likely to stay low due to fuel substitution effects [7] - Overall, the petroleum coke prices in 2026 are anticipated to show a strong fluctuating trend, with further structural differentiation expected [7]

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage battery industry is experiencing rapid changes, with Haicheng Energy emerging as a significant player, ranking second globally in energy storage battery shipments by 2025, driven by its strategic focus and technological advantages [1][2]. Industry Overview - The global energy storage battery market is projected to see explosive growth, with shipments expected to increase by over 80% year-on-year, reaching 640 GWh in 2025 [1]. - Haicheng Energy's entry into the top ranks of global energy storage battery shipments reflects a significant shift in market dynamics [1]. Company Achievements - Haicheng Energy's Chongqing base has been recognized as the world's first "Lighthouse Factory" for energy storage batteries, highlighting its advanced manufacturing capabilities [2]. - The company has implemented over 40 digital solutions, integrating cutting-edge technologies such as generative AI and AIoT, to create a comprehensive intelligent control system for its production processes [3]. - The Chongqing facility is the first in the world to mass-produce long-duration energy storage batteries, with the ∞Cell 1175Ah battery set to be produced in 2025 [3]. Operational Efficiency - The delivery cycle for Haicheng Energy's 10 GWh scale has significantly shortened from several months to just a few weeks, demonstrating exceptional operational resilience and efficiency [4]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 167% in energy storage battery shipments from 2022 to 2024, with a remarkable 250% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025 [4]. - By August 2025, Haicheng Energy's cumulative shipment volume surpassed 100 GWh, placing it among the top three globally [4]. Strategic Positioning - The recognition as a "Lighthouse Factory" serves as a compelling value anchor for Haicheng Energy, especially as it approaches its IPO in the Hong Kong market, showcasing its competitive advantages beyond just growth metrics [5]. - The company's ability to lead industrial upgrades through intelligent manufacturing is a key factor in its rapid growth and ascent to the second position in global energy storage battery shipments by 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage battery industry is experiencing significant and rapid changes in market positioning, with HaiCheng Energy emerging as a key player, ranking in the top two for global energy storage battery shipments in 2025, reflecting a robust growth trajectory in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Rankings - The global energy storage battery shipment is projected to grow over 80% year-on-year, reaching 640 GWh in 2025 [1] - HaiCheng Energy has achieved a notable position in the market, ranking in the top two for both overall energy storage battery shipments and large-scale battery shipments in 2025 [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Excellence - HaiCheng Energy's Chongqing base has been recognized as the world's first "lighthouse factory" for energy storage batteries, highlighting its advanced smart manufacturing capabilities [2] - The Chongqing facility integrates over 40 digital solutions, utilizing cutting-edge technologies such as generative AI and machine learning to enhance the entire production process from R&D to quality control [3] Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Growth - The delivery cycle for HaiCheng Energy's 10 GWh scale has significantly shortened from several months to just a few months, demonstrating exceptional operational resilience and scalability [4] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 167% in energy storage battery shipments from 2022 to 2024, with a remarkable 250% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025 [4] Group 4: Investment Value - The recognition of the Chongqing base as a "lighthouse factory" serves as a compelling value anchor for investors, showcasing HaiCheng Energy's competitive advantages beyond just growth metrics [6] - The company's ability to lead industry upgrades through smart manufacturing positions it favorably in a competitive market, contributing to its ascent as the second-largest global energy storage battery supplier by 2025 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the combination of technology and cyclical sectors remains a key investment theme, with expectations of PPI turning positive driving EPS growth and liquidity support [1] - The article highlights the importance of focusing on stable growth in end-user sectors and the commercialization of ToB applications, particularly in areas such as computing hardware, energy storage, AI applications, and intelligent driving [1] - The Guotai Science and Innovation ETF (588360) tracks the Science and Innovation 50 Index (931643), which includes 50 large-cap emerging industry companies from the Sci-Tech and ChiNext boards, reflecting the overall performance of representative emerging industries [1] Group 2 - The index focuses on industries such as electronics, power equipment, communications, and biomedicine, emphasizing technological attributes and innovative growth, with a relatively balanced industry allocation [1] - The cyclical sectors are expected to show significant price and valuation elasticity during the phase of PPI turning positive, with reduced competition potentially leading to improved performance in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery, steel, and building materials [1]