Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant profit growth forecasts for major Chinese shipbuilding companies, China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, with expected net profit increases of 98%-119% and 182%-238% respectively for the first half of the year [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has approved the share swap merger plan between China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, which is expected to create the largest and most comprehensive listed shipbuilding giant globally, positioning it as a key player in China's entry into the high-end equipment market [1] - The defense and military industry sector is showing positive performance, with the Defense and Military ETF (512810) experiencing significant capital inflows, having attracted over 100 million yuan in the last 10 trading days [3] Group 2 - Analysts from Guolian Minsheng Securities believe that the defense and military sector will remain a favorable investment option amid the current trend of global multipolarity, with the industry poised to experience three pivotal turning points: the "14th Five-Year Plan," "domestic demand acceleration," and "foreign trade orders from 0 to 1" [3] - The Defense and Military ETF (512810) has undergone a share split to lower the trading threshold, reducing the price from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan, making it more accessible for investors [3] - The ETF covers a wide range of themes, including traditional military forces and emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, military AI, low-altitude economy, and large aircraft [3]

Summary of Military Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The military industry is experiencing significant investment opportunities due to global geopolitical tensions and an arms race, particularly highlighted by China's military equipment performance in the India-Pakistan air conflict, which has increased international recognition of Chinese military products [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities**: The military sector is expected to benefit from increased order delivery tolerance from institutions, driven by geopolitical tensions and high-end equipment exports [1][2]. - **Market Events**: The upcoming 93rd anniversary military parade is anticipated to boost market activity, alongside the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the initiation of the 15th plan, which may lead to expedited orders [3][5]. - **Performance Metrics**: In the first half of 2025, the defense industry index outperformed the broader market, driven by a reversal in industry sentiment and concentrated order issuance [1][10]. - **Valuation Trends**: The military industry's valuation has risen to the 75th percentile, indicating potential for further growth, shifting from EPS-driven to PE-driven factors due to increased global asset allocation demand [8][21]. - **Contract Liabilities**: A 12.7% increase in contract liabilities in Q1 2025 suggests a pre-order phenomenon, indicating future performance improvements [11][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Geopolitical Context**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, are expected to sustain demand for military equipment, with countries like South Korea and Japan increasing their defense budgets [19][16]. - **Technological Advancements**: The military sector is focusing on new combat capabilities, including unmanned systems and high-speed weapons, which are crucial for future military strategies [7][29]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Key investment areas include military trade exports, military electronics, and ammunition, with specific companies highlighted for their potential [5][30][31]. Future Outlook - The military industry is poised for continued growth, driven by strategic security asset allocation and the global expansion of Chinese military assets, particularly in the arms trade [21][22]. - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to clarify future directions for the military sector, enhancing market confidence and potentially leading to increased order flows [15][13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the military industry conference call, highlighting the current landscape, investment opportunities, and future trends.

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry experienced a strong rebound on June 23, 2025, with the sector closing as the second highest in gains among all industries, only behind the computer sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The defense military ETF (512810) saw a daily increase of 1.5%, closing at 0.608 yuan, with a trading volume of 54.1 million yuan and a turnover rate of 8.73%, leading among six similar ETFs [1][2]. - The trading threshold for the defense military ETF was significantly reduced from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan due to a recent share split, enhancing trading accessibility [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Dynamics - A total of 73 out of 80 leading stocks covered by the defense military ETF rose in value, with notable performances from Changcheng Military Industry, Aerospace Development, and others [2][4]. - Recent geopolitical tensions, including U.S. airstrikes in Iran and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, are expected to reignite a new arms race, positively impacting the defense sector [4][5]. - The 55th Paris Air Show highlighted advanced military aircraft, which are anticipated to bolster China's military trade on a global scale [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The defense military ETF (512810) passively tracks the CSI Military Index, covering various sectors such as military AI, commercial aerospace, and traditional military equipment [5]. - The ETF is currently a target for margin trading and is accessible for northbound capital, indicating strong investment interest [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in military technology and the emphasis on "new quality combat power" are expected to drive growth in the defense industry, with a focus on advanced weaponry and intelligent systems [3][4]. Group 1: Events - On May 11, the People's Daily highlighted the rapid development of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, emphasizing the importance of high-tech weapons in modern warfare [3]. - The article discusses the need to study the characteristics of modern warfare and accelerate the development of new quality combat power as a pressing issue for building a first-class military [3]. Group 2: Institutional Interpretations - New quality combat power can be categorized into two main directions: new quality combat power and new quality productivity, with the former including advanced aircraft, drones, and long-range rockets that may change future battlefield operations [4]. - The government work report by Premier Li Qiang on March 5, 2025, emphasized the need to advance military training and the development of "new quality combat power," marking a new phase in the demand and application of new technologies and equipment [4]. - The military industry theme is expected to continue, with new quality combat power becoming a new growth engine, as military construction gradually enters an era of intelligence and automation [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The new quality combat power is anticipated to open up investment opportunities in the military sector, with a focus on precision-guided weapons expected to see initial growth by 2025 [5]. - Attention is drawn to the production capacity of underwater systems and the accelerated iteration of AI and robotics, which are seen as core to new quality combat power [5]. - The traditional aircraft industry chain is highlighted as having long-term investment value [5].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 达邵炜 (8621)23297818× dasw@swsresearch.com 国防军工 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 2025 年 04 月 27 日 季报利空逐渐出尽，订单有望持续 兑现 看好 —— 国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 18 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 0.15%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 0.38%，同期上证综指上 涨 0.56%，沪深 300 上涨 0.38%，创业板指上涨 1.74%，申万国防军工指数跑输创 业板指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上 周国防军工板块 0.15%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 22 位。2、从我们构 建的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [7][31]. Core Insights - The defense and military industry is expected to experience robust growth in the coming years, driven by a clear upward trend in fundamentals and increased military spending due to geopolitical factors [7]. - The report highlights that the industry is entering a phase of accelerated mechanization and informatization as it approaches the centenary of the military, with a focus on quality and quantity improvements [7]. - The impact of tariff conflicts is viewed positively for the military industry, as it emphasizes the comparative advantages of domestic demand and is expected to accelerate investment in the sector [7]. - New forms of combat capabilities, including AI and robotics, are anticipated to become key growth drivers for the industry, creating new investment opportunities [7]. - The construction of remote sensing constellations and the upcoming aerospace conference are expected to boost the sector's performance [7]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 2.55%, while the overall market indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% [3][8]. - The report notes that the defense and military sector's performance ranked last among 31 primary industry categories [8]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector last week included Beimo Gaoke (up 11.94%), Taihe New Materials (up 9.38%), and others, while the worst performers included Zhenhua Technology (down 16.23%) and Hongyuan Electronics (down 13.17%) [8][16][17]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the defense and military sector is 68.10, indicating it is in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 54.04% since January 2014 [17]. - The report identifies a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [17][22]. Key Investment Targets - The report suggests increasing attention on high-end combat capabilities and new combat capabilities, with specific stocks highlighted for potential investment [7][24]. - Notable stocks include Feiliwa, Tianqin Equipment, and others in the high-end combat category, as well as Chengdu Huami and Huaying Technology in the new combat capabilities category [7][24].