Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, in response to slowing economic activity and rising inflation [1] Economic Indicators - Recent indicators show a slowdown in U.S. economic activity and employment growth in the first half of the year [1] - Inflation rates have increased, prompting the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy [1] Future Projections - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that officials expect an additional cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in the remaining two policy meetings of the year [1] Trade Policy Impact - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that tariffs from the Trump administration may continue to elevate commodity prices throughout the remainder of this year and into 2026 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends of various futures on September 18, 2025, including股指期货,国债期货, metal futures, energy futures, and chemical futures [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile on September 18. IF2509 has resistance at 4580 and 4600 points, support at 4542 and 4497 points; IH2509 has resistance at 2976 and 2990 points, support at 2940 and 2924 points; IC2509 has resistance at 7300 and 7350 points, support at 7235 and 7165 points; IM2509 has resistance at 7600 and 7650 points, support at 7525 and 7462 points [2][20]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2512 contract is likely to be strongly and widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 108.26 and 108.32 yuan, support at 107.97 and 107.91 yuan [2][38]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2512 contract is expected to be strongly and widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 116.1 and 116.5 yuan, support at 115.2 and 115.0 yuan [2][42]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2512 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, with support at 829.0 and 824.9 yuan/gram, resistance at 845.9 and 850.0 yuan/gram [3][43]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2512 contract is expected to be widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 10000 and 10090 yuan/kilogram, support at 9800 and 9710 yuan/kilogram [3][50]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2511 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 79500 and 79000 yuan/ton, with resistance at 80000 and 80300 yuan/ton [3][54]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The AL2511 contract is expected to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 20650 and 20600 yuan/ton, with resistance at 20920 and 21000 yuan/ton [3][60]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2601 contract is likely to be strongly volatile on September 18, and will attack resistance at 2989 and 3021 yuan/ton, with support at 2919 and 2900 yuan/ton [3][63]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2511 contract is expected to be widely volatile on September 18, with resistance at 74800 and 75600 yuan/ton, support at 72700 and 72000 yuan/ton [3][66]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2601 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with support at 3144 and 3127 yuan/ton, resistance at 3180 and 3200 yuan/ton [4][71]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with support at 3370 and 3355 yuan/ton, resistance at 3410 and 3420 yuan/ton [4][77]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2601 contract is likely to be strongly volatile on September 18, with resistance at 812 and 815 yuan/ton, support at 796 and 793 yuan/ton [4][79]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile on September 18, with support at 1215 and 1201 yuan/ton, resistance at 1241 and 1259 yuan/ton [4][85]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG601 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with resistance at 1250 and 1270 yuan/ton, support at 1226 and 1212 yuan/ton [4][88]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA601 contract is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on September 18, with resistance at 1347 and 1358 yuan/ton, support at 1325 and 1314 yuan/ton [4][95]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2511 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, with support at 493 and 490 yuan/barrel, resistance at 503 and 504 yuan/barrel [4][99]. - **PTA Futures**: The TA601 contract is expected to be strongly volatile on September 18, with resistance at 4750 and 4778 yuan/ton, support at 4694 and 4682 yuan/ton [4][103]. - **PVC Futures**: The V2601 contract is likely to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 4934 and 4921 yuan/ton, with resistance at 5000 and 5036 yuan/ton [4][105]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: The RU2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile on September 18, and will test support at 15590 and 15500 yuan/ton, with resistance at 15880 and 15910 yuan/ton [6][107]. Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Fed Policy**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year. The Fed also cut the excess reserve rate and the reserve rate by 25 basis points. The FOMC statement shows concerns about employment and inflation. The dot - plot indicates different expectations for future rate cuts among Fed officials [7][8]. - **Domestic Policies and Data**: China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption models, introduce a series of policies for service consumption, and carry out over 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities during the consumption month, issuing over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies. In the first eight months, China's general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, up 0.3% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure was 17.93 trillion yuan, up 3.1% year - on - year [10][11]. - **International News**: Canada's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%. Japan's central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. UK's CPI in August was flat at 3.8% year - on - year [12][13]. Commodity Futures - related Information - **Gold Market**: Hong Kong will take five measures to establish an international gold trading market, including expanding gold storage and establishing a central clearing system [13]. - **International Futures Market**: On September 17, international precious metal futures generally fell, international oil prices slightly declined, and most London base metals fell [14].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - The decision comes amid signs of slowing economic activity, job growth, and rising inflation, indicating a challenging balance between inflation and employment [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the focus on the labor market, stating that lowering rates could assist those struggling to find jobs [1] Economic Forecasts - Federal Reserve officials predict a median real GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and an inflation rate of 3% [2] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets showed mixed results, the dollar index fell before rebounding, and gold prices experienced fluctuations [3] - Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year and an additional 125 basis points next year [3] - Economic risks are highlighted, with concerns about the U.S. government's credit reliability rather than private debt being the primary issue [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.17%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index remained flat, reflecting market reactions to the recent interest rate changes by the U.S. Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1]

17 September 2025 | 2:44PM EDT USA: FOMC Lowers Fed Funds Rate 25bp; SEP Median Projects Three Cuts for 2025, One Each in 2026 and 2027 BOTTOM LINE: The FOMC lowered the target range for the fed funds rate by 25bp to 4-4.25% at its September meeting. The post-meeting statement noted that "downside risks to employment have risen" even as inflation "has moved up." The Committee removed a previous reference to "the extent and timing" of additional fed funds rate cuts in the forward guidance portion of the stat ...

▲ 9月17日，美联储主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会 。 新华社记者 胡友松 摄 尽管美国通胀率有所上升，并维持在略高的水平，但近几个月新增就业远低于预期让美联 储终于采取降息措施。近期指标显示，美国上半年经济活动增长放缓，就业增长放缓。经 济前景的不确定性依然存在，就业下行风险上升。 据悉，联邦公开市场委员会是以11比1的投票结果通过降息25个基点决定的。刚刚就职 的 美 联 储 理 事 、 目 前 仍 担 任 白 宫 经 济 顾 问 委 员 会 主 席 的 斯 蒂 芬 · 米 兰 是 唯 一 持 不 同 意 见 者，他主张降息50个基点。 美联储预测显示，到年底将再降息50个基点，未来两年每年再降息25个基点 。 美国总统特朗普自今年1月上任以来持续施压美联储降息。 来源： 央视新闻，记者：刘旭 当地时间9月17日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显 示，美联储决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%之间 。 这 是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息。 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 编辑丨闫志强 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在货币政策例会后的记者会上表示，当前劳动力市场活力不足且略显疲软，美联储需 要平衡"双重使命的两端"。被问及有新的理事成员加入，鲍威尔强调美联储将坚定致力于保持其独立 性。对于25个基点的降息幅度，他认为市场已经提前消化了预期，但此次降息非常重要，是对劳动力市 场的支持。 声明称，最近的指标表明美国上半年经济活动有所放缓。就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升但仍处于低 位。通胀率有所上升，仍处于略高水平。美联储寻求在较长时期内实现充分就业和2%通胀目标。经济 前景不确定性仍然较高。美联储密切关注其双重使命面临的风险，并判断就业形势的下行风险已经上 升。 声明称，为实现目标并鉴于风险平衡的变化，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4% 至4.25%的水平。在考虑进一步调整利率时，美联储将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平 衡。美联储将继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。 声明提到，美国总统特朗普提名的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰投票反对此次利率决策，主张将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调50个基点。 当天，美联储公布的经济预测概要显示，与6月时相比，美联储将今年的GDP增速预期中值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024, which has led to a slight decline in gold and silver futures prices [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut the federal funds rate is aimed at addressing challenges in the labor market, as many individuals are currently struggling to find jobs [2][3] - The median forecast for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate is projected to be 3.6% by the end of this year, 3.4% by the end of 2026, and 3.1% by the end of 2027 [2] Group 2: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve has revised its economic outlook, predicting a median real GDP growth rate of 1.6% for this year, and 1.8% and 1.9% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, which is an increase from previous forecasts [1] - The median unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% in 2025, 4.4% in 2026, and 4.3% in 2027, showing a slight improvement from earlier predictions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing the target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking a total reduction of 125 basis points in the current easing cycle [1][9] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was widely anticipated, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut reflected in futures markets prior to the announcement [1] - The Fed's updated projections indicate an increase in the expected number of rate cuts for the year from two to three, suggesting two additional 25 basis point cuts after the current one [1][12] Employment and Economic Outlook - Concerns regarding a slowdown in the job market have overshadowed inflation worries, prompting the Fed to adjust its focus on employment risks [2][3] - The Fed's statement highlighted that job growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, indicating heightened risks to employment [3] Voting Dynamics - In the recent FOMC meeting, 11 out of 12 voting members supported the 25 basis point cut, with only one member, newly appointed Stephen Miran, opposing it in favor of a 50 basis point cut [5][6] - The voting outcome did not reflect a significant division within the committee compared to previous meetings [7] Asset Reduction Strategy - The Fed reiterated its commitment to reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, maintaining a slower pace of balance sheet reduction since April [4] Economic Projections - The Fed has revised its GDP growth forecasts upward for the next three years while adjusting unemployment and inflation expectations [14][15] - The updated median projections indicate a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, with inflation expected to return to the Fed's long-term target of 2% by 2028 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve acknowledged a slowdown in employment growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while also indicating that inflation levels remain slightly elevated, leading to a decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points [1][3][6]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - On September 17, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% by 25 basis points [3]. - The decision reflects a more pessimistic view on the employment market compared to the previous meeting, with the acknowledgment of rising unemployment risks [3][6]. Changes in Statements - The Fed removed the phrase regarding the stability of the labor market and noted that employment growth has slowed [3][5]. - Inflation was mentioned as having increased, a change from the previous meeting where this trend was not highlighted [3][5]. Voting Dynamics - Stephen I. Miran was the only member to vote against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of 25 [3][7]. - Other members, including those appointed by President Trump, supported the 25 basis point reduction, contrary to some pre-meeting expectations [3][4][7]. Economic Outlook - The committee aims for maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate, while recognizing high levels of uncertainty in the economic outlook [6]. - The Fed will continue to monitor various factors, including labor market conditions and inflation pressures, to assess future monetary policy adjustments [6].