Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's interest rate strategy team questions U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset's claims regarding the Federal Reserve's policy rate, stating that his assertions lack model support [1] - Basset suggested on August 13 that the current Federal Reserve policy rate should be lowered by 150 to 175 basis points, but the specific models backing this claim remain unclear [1] - The Deutsche Bank team, led by Matthew Luzkin, indicates that the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report does not provide justification for significant rate cuts, especially to the extent proposed by Basset [1] Group 2 - The current federal funds rate is in a reasonable range of 4% to 4.65%, aligning with results derived from traditional monetary policy models like the Taylor rule [1] - The analysis shows that the current interest rate level is generally consistent with economic fundamentals, allowing for only a minor adjustment of 25 basis points [1] - The report specifically excludes the "first difference rule," which suggests further tightening of monetary policy in the context of persistent inflation above target and no significant rise in unemployment [1] Group 3 - Since December of the previous year, the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points [4] - Historical trends indicate that policymakers typically lean towards early rate cuts when there are signs of labor market downturns, yet Fed Chair Powell has emphasized a restrictive policy stance [4] - There is a divergence between Powell's cautious approach and the support for rate cuts expressed by two Federal Reserve governors during the July monetary policy meeting [4] Group 4 - Treasury Secretary's advisor Joseph Lavorgna clarifies that Basset's "model" refers to the Fed's long-term neutral rate forecast range of 2.6% to 3.6%, which does not directly correlate with the current policy rate [4] - The Deutsche Bank strategy team reiterates that policy adjustments should be based on real-time economic data rather than long-term forecasts, arguing that substantial rate cuts are not sufficiently justified given ongoing inflation pressures and the labor market's lack of significant deterioration [4]

Core Viewpoint - Navarro criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for maintaining the current policy interest rate, claiming it is causing significant harm to the economy [1] Group 1 - Navarro calls for intervention from the Federal Reserve Board to address Powell's stance on interest rates [1] - Navarro states that Powell's policies have led to income losses and increased interest expenses for individuals and businesses [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy interest rates are currently at a moderately restrictive level [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy, indicating that current interest rates are designed to manage inflation while supporting economic growth [1] - The statement reflects the Fed's ongoing assessment of economic conditions and its commitment to achieving its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [1] - The Fed's stance suggests that any future adjustments to interest rates will be data-dependent, emphasizing the importance of economic indicators in guiding policy decisions [1]

"即便处于不确定时期，我们在做法上的确定性和审慎性依旧如故，"Harker在为周四费城联储一场活动 准备好的讲稿中表示。他补充说，正因如此，他支持近期"维持美联储政策利率不变"的决定。 费城联储行长Patrick Harker 在美国经济对总统唐纳德·特朗普在移民、贸易、税收和监管等方面的政策会作何反应仍存在不确定性 的背景下，美联储官员已暗示，他们打算维持借贷成本稳定。一些决策者表示，可能还需要数月时间才 能获得足够信息以决定是否调整利率。 费城联邦储备银行行长Patrick Harker表示，美国经济依然具有韧性，决策官员应保持观望态度，直到有 关关税和其他政策将如何影响经济前景的情况更加明朗。 来源：环球市场播报 在作为费城联储行长的最后一次讲话中，Harker表示，官员们同时面临通胀和失业率上升的情况是可能 的，但"远非确定"。他说，为了朝正确方向调整政策，"我们需要了解通胀和就业受影响的程度和持续 性"。 "这实际上意味着我们必须等待并观察，"他补充道。 周五公布的5月就业报告将为官员们提供劳动力市场的最新情况。市场普遍预计美联储将在6月17日至18 日的会议上维持利率不变。 Harker将在本月底 ...