格隆汇2月13日｜Regan Capital分析师Skyler Weinand表示，1月美国通胀数据疲软并不会增加未来几个 月美联储降息的可能性，原因在于本周早些时候公布的劳动力数据强于预期——1月新增就业13万人， 失业率4.3%。美联储"眼下根本不能降息，毕竟经济刚刚创造了六位数的就业岗位"。Weinand预计参议 院将确认沃什接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席，但怀疑他能否就降息凝聚共识。"今年我们可能看不到美联 储政策利率有任何变化。"芝商所美联储观察工具显示，投资者目前普遍定价年内至少两次降息。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

美联储洛根周二表示，她对美联储当前的政策利率水平能否在保持就业市场稳定的同时推动通胀回落至 2%目标持"谨慎乐观"态度，未来几个月的经济数据将检验这一判断是否成立。洛根表示："如果情况如 此，这将表明我们当前的政策立场是合适的，不需要进一步降息就能实现双重使命目标。"但她补充 称，如果通胀回落的同时劳动力市场明显降温，"再次降息可能就会变得合适。不过眼下，我更担心的 是通胀依然顽固地处于高位。"她表示，在去年三次降息之后，劳动力市场面临的下行风险"似乎已经明 显缓解"，但与此同时，这也在通胀方面带来了额外风险。她指出，随着短期借贷成本已处于被广泛估 计为"中性"的政策区间，当前利率水平对已强劲反弹的经济以及过去近五年持续高于美联储目标的通 胀，约束作用有限。洛根预计今年通胀将取得进展，已有一些初步改善迹象。 来源：第一财经 ...

黄金资讯—— 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：陈平 黄金资讯—— 2月4日，周二基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.267%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报 3.578%。金银在连续两个交易日大幅下跌后强劲反弹，现货黄金开盘后迅速上涨，并冲回4900美元大 关上方，欧美盘时段均在4950美元上下震荡，盘中一度创下逾320美元的历史最大单日涨幅，最终收涨 6.13%，创2008年11月以来最大单日涨幅，报4946.67美元/盎司；现货白银盘中一度大涨超10%，并重回 89美元上方，但随后迅速回吐部分涨幅，最终收涨7.68%，报85.20美元/盎司。因美伊紧张关系持续。 WTI原油底部震荡后走强，盘中一度重回64美元上方，最终收涨2.52%，报63.95美元/桶；布伦特原油收 涨2.23%，报69.69美元/桶。 黄金最新行情走势—— 昨日黄金市场延续拉升趋势，早盘开盘在4673.4美元/盎司，后行情先回落给出4663.7美元/盎司，后行 情强势震荡拉升， ...

亚洲交易时段，美国国债收益率基本持平，美联储将在今日晚些时候公布利率决定。市场预计美联储将 维持政策利率不变。东方汇理投资研究所的Alessia Berardi在一份报告中称："一系列好坏参半的数据使 得衡量美国通胀放缓程度变得困难，而且消费者活动依然强劲。"这位全球宏观经济主管表示，不过， 预期的按兵不动并不意味着降息的结束。东方汇理资产管理预计，在平静的第一季度之后，第二季度将 有两次降息。据Tradeweb的数据，两年期美国国债收益率小幅下跌0.2个基点，至3.566%；10年期美国 国债收益率上涨0.4个基点，至4.226%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand for coking coal are in a weak balance, with prices showing support amidst stability. Coking coal prices have risen slightly this week, with the main coking coal stock at Jingtang Port increasing by a month-on-month rate, while production prices remain stable. Despite being in a low-demand season, low inventory levels and limited supply increases at year-end, combined with downstream winter storage replenishment needs, are expected to lead to a narrow range of price fluctuations and stabilization [1][2]. Group 1 - The supply of thermal coal is constrained with differentiated demand, leading to a broader price correction. Thermal coal prices have seen an expanded decline this week, with both port and production prices falling. Previous pessimistic sentiments have somewhat eased, and the expected increase in daily consumption during winter, along with reduced year-end supply and declining inventory levels, will support a stabilization in prices [1][2]. - The secondary market shows mixed performance, with the coal sector outperforming indices. The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with funds concentrating on low-volatility and high-dividend sectors, such as retail and non-bank financials leading the gains, while growth sectors are under pressure. The average daily transaction volume has decreased to 17.6 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious sentiment [1][2]. Group 2 - The financial regulatory authority is seeking opinions on the liability management measures for insurance funds, reinforcing a long-term allocation orientation. The market anticipates that insurance funds may bring an incremental capital of 550 to 600 billion yuan to the equity market [2]. - On a global scale, the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate expectations remain stable, with a reduced probability of interest rate cuts anticipated in January 2026. The dollar liquidity environment is temporarily stable, which has not significantly disturbed the A-share market [2].

Core Viewpoint - Economists have slightly raised their growth expectations for the US economy, indicating a more optimistic outlook for GDP growth in the coming years [1] Economic Growth - The projected GDP growth rate for the US in 2026 has been adjusted from 1.9% to 2% [1] - The growth expectation for 2025 has also been revised to 2% [1] Inflation Expectations - Inflation expectations have slightly decreased, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2026 anticipated to be 2.8%, suggesting that price pressures are gradually easing [1] Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for interest rates remain unchanged, with forecasts indicating that the Federal Reserve's policy rate will decline to 3.25% by the end of 2026, suggesting a potential gradual easing of monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicates that the ADP data suggests the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate can be slightly lower than the current level [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a potential shift in monetary policy based on recent employment data [1] - The ADP data is being used as a key indicator for assessing the appropriate level of interest rates [1]

Core Insights - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) increased to 4.27% on October 27, up from 4.24% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate rose to 4.21% on the same day, compared to 4.11% the day before [1] Summary by Category - **Interest Rates** - SOFR reported at 4.27%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points from the previous day [1] - Effective federal funds rate at 4.21%, up by 0.10 percentage points from the prior day [1]

Core Points - The US dollar index is trading around 98.540, with the euro at 1.1651 and the pound at 1.3406, while the dollar/yen is at 150.610 [1] - The market is awaiting key events including the APEC finance ministers' meeting, Japan's prime minister election, and significant tariff announcements by President Trump regarding Colombia [1][7] - The previous trading day saw the dollar index close at 98.624, with the Chinese yuan closing at 7.1231 against the dollar, and the yuan's midpoint rate adjusted to 7.0973, up by 43 basis points [1] Currency Pair Analysis - The dollar index experienced a slight increase of 0.06% to close at 98.60, with the 10-year US Treasury yield at 3.9850% and the 2-year yield at 3.4640% [2] - The euro/dollar pair remained stable, with a previous close down by 0.1%, and technical indicators suggesting a neutral market; resistance levels are at 1.1728 and 1.1778, while support levels are at 1.1626 and 1.1542 [2] - The dollar/yen pair saw an upward movement, breaking through a key Fibonacci retracement level, with potential further gains towards 151.75 supported by positive oscillators [2] Key News Recap - President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks [3] - Discussions between the US and Russia have begun regarding the construction of a tunnel under the Bering Strait [5] - Federal Reserve official Musalem indicated potential support for another rate cut if employment risks increase and inflation remains controlled [6]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's interest rate strategy team questions U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset's claims regarding the Federal Reserve's policy rate, stating that his assertions lack model support [1] - Basset suggested on August 13 that the current Federal Reserve policy rate should be lowered by 150 to 175 basis points, but the specific models backing this claim remain unclear [1] - The Deutsche Bank team, led by Matthew Luzkin, indicates that the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report does not provide justification for significant rate cuts, especially to the extent proposed by Basset [1] Group 2 - The current federal funds rate is in a reasonable range of 4% to 4.65%, aligning with results derived from traditional monetary policy models like the Taylor rule [1] - The analysis shows that the current interest rate level is generally consistent with economic fundamentals, allowing for only a minor adjustment of 25 basis points [1] - The report specifically excludes the "first difference rule," which suggests further tightening of monetary policy in the context of persistent inflation above target and no significant rise in unemployment [1] Group 3 - Since December of the previous year, the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points [4] - Historical trends indicate that policymakers typically lean towards early rate cuts when there are signs of labor market downturns, yet Fed Chair Powell has emphasized a restrictive policy stance [4] - There is a divergence between Powell's cautious approach and the support for rate cuts expressed by two Federal Reserve governors during the July monetary policy meeting [4] Group 4 - Treasury Secretary's advisor Joseph Lavorgna clarifies that Basset's "model" refers to the Fed's long-term neutral rate forecast range of 2.6% to 3.6%, which does not directly correlate with the current policy rate [4] - The Deutsche Bank strategy team reiterates that policy adjustments should be based on real-time economic data rather than long-term forecasts, arguing that substantial rate cuts are not sufficiently justified given ongoing inflation pressures and the labor market's lack of significant deterioration [4]