最近预测市场板块里绕不开的话题就是——预测市场 x BNBChain，本质还是因为近期 crypto 世界都开始关注亚洲买盘的力量和亚洲用户的重要性，并且意识到了 CZ 喊单能够带来的巨大效应而在 @BNBCHAIN buidl 上也成为了一种风潮，对于 BNBChain native 的项目，CZ 会给予更多关注，尤其是有 YZi Labs @yzilabs 的投资，更是 BNB 嫡系最近我也在研究预测市场，发现其实预测市场的预言机解决机制是一大问题，需要更好的解决方案，因为区块链本身是一个封闭系统，无法直接获取现实世界的数据，所以预言机提供什么样的数据会对预测市场的结果起到非常大的影响（就像之前出过的 $UMA 大户预言机攻击事件）从此前 CZ 对于预测市场预言机的观点以及给 @APRO_Oracle 起名的角度结合来说，个人感觉 APRO 这个项目的机会还是挺大的。他们响应速度要比很多预言机团队都来的快，这个对 to b 的项目发展还是很重要的。会不会搞事就看这个了，此外还观察到他们今天和 BSC 上的原生预测市场 @opinionlabsxyz 强强联手，又宣发了 YZi 领投，看来团队也希望能在这个 ...

Core Insights - DraftKings has acquired Railbird Technologies Inc., a federally regulated trading venue authorized by the CFTC, marking a significant move into the controversial and competitive prediction market sector [1] - The acquisition aims to expand DraftKings' business beyond sports betting and capitalize on future demand for real-money betting on events [1] - DraftKings plans to launch "DraftKings Predictions" on its mobile app, allowing users to trade "yes/no" outcome contracts related to finance, culture, and entertainment [1] Company Strategy - The acquisition is seen as a proactive strategy to enhance DraftKings' market position and potentially make it one of the first sports betting companies to offer federally approved event contracts [1][2] - CEO Jason Robins expressed excitement about the additional business opportunities presented by the prediction market [1] - The cautious approach regarding sports-related contracts reflects potential regulatory resistance from state gaming regulators [2][3] Market Dynamics - Following the acquisition announcement, DraftKings' stock rose by 8.3% in after-hours trading, indicating positive investor sentiment [2] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with other financial license holders like CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange planning to enter the gambling fringe market [1][2] - Emerging platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have faced criticism from state regulators for utilizing federal licenses to operate in jurisdictions where sports betting is prohibited [2] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the acquisition of Railbird could help DraftKings fend off competition and double its potential market size by operating in states where traditional sports betting is banned [2] - The strategic shift represented by this acquisition may alleviate some pressure on DraftKings' stock, which has been under strain due to the threat posed by prediction markets [3] - The ongoing blurring of lines between Wall Street and the gambling industry is noteworthy, as regulatory challenges may arise with any moves to increase sports event contracts [3]

Core Insights - DraftKings has made a significant move into the prediction market by acquiring Railbird Technologies Inc., a federally regulated trading platform, in response to emerging competitive threats [1][3] - Following the announcement, DraftKings' stock price rose by 8.3% in after-hours trading, indicating positive investor sentiment towards the acquisition [1] - The acquisition positions DraftKings as one of the first sports betting companies to offer federally regulated event contracts, but it also introduces regulatory challenges as competition intensifies in the prediction market [2][3] Strategic Shift - The acquisition represents a strategic shift from a defensive to an offensive approach for DraftKings, allowing the company to counter competitors and expand its market reach into states where traditional sports betting is prohibited [4] - Analysts believe that this strategic announcement should reassure investors who have been concerned about the impact of the prediction market on DraftKings' stock price [4] New Business Ventures and Regulatory Challenges - DraftKings plans to launch "DraftKings Predictions" on its mobile app, enabling users to trade contracts related to financial, cultural, and entertainment outcomes [5] - The company has not yet decided whether to offer contracts related to sports events, reflecting potential regulatory resistance from state gaming regulators [5] Blurring Lines Between Finance and Gambling - The acquisition occurs at a time when the boundaries between Wall Street and the gambling industry are increasingly blurred, with financial competitors like CME Group exploring entry into the gambling market [6] - The competition highlights the significant commercial potential of prediction markets and the tension between federal and state regulatory authorities, which may reshape the landscape of gambling and financial derivatives [6]

Group 1 - Limitless Exchange completed a $10 million seed funding round led by 1confirmation, with participation from notable institutions such as Collider, F-Prime, DCG, Coinbase Ventures, Node Capital, and Arrington Capital, marking a significant milestone in its rapid growth phase [2][4] - The platform's total trading volume has surpassed $500 million, demonstrating strong market demand and product usability [2][3] - Limitless achieved a remarkable 25-fold increase in trading volume from August to September, with nominal trading volume exceeding $100 million by mid-October, achieving this in less than half the time of the previous month [2][3] Group 2 - In September, Limitless attracted significant market attention during its token sale on Kaito Launchpad, raising over $200 million, far exceeding its $1 million target, indicating a 200-fold oversubscription [3] - The platform aims to make prediction markets a mainstream financial tool by lowering participation barriers and enhancing trading efficiency, appealing to both professional traders and a broader user base [3][4] - Limitless is recognized as one of the fastest and most intuitive methods for trading cryptocurrencies and stocks, offering short-cycle price prediction markets with instant settlement and no forced liquidation [3][5] Group 3 - The recent funding will accelerate product iteration, introducing more short-cycle market types, including 15-minute, 10-minute, and even 1-minute prediction markets [4] - The company plans to expand its user growth initiatives and explore regulatory compliance and licensing in key potential markets to support global business expansion [4] - Limitless is positioned as a simple high-leverage trading entry point, with the prediction market expected to evolve into a new generation of multi-trillion-dollar derivative market category [4]

Core Insights - Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket anticipate that the federal government shutdown will last approximately six weeks, with an average expectation of 44 days [1][4] - The trading volume in this market exceeds $12.7 million, indicating significant interest and engagement from traders [4] Group 1: Shutdown Duration Expectations - Traders are pricing in a 44% probability that the shutdown will last until November 15, with about a one-in-three chance it continues past November 20 [4] - The largest share of traders, approximately 44%, expect the shutdown to conclude after November 16, with over $147,000 wagered on that outcome [5][6] Group 2: Historical Context - The federal government shut down at 12:01 a.m. ET on October 7, marking the 20th shutdown since 1976 [8] - The longest government shutdown lasted 34 days, occurring from December 2018 to January 2019, due to a funding dispute over President Trump's border wall [8] Group 3: Legislative Impasse - Senators have failed for the 10th time to resolve the impasse, leaving the government shutdown unresolved [11] - The House has been adjourned since September 19 and is not expected to reconvene until the shutdown ends [11]

Core Insights - Prediction markets are gaining significant attention from Silicon Valley investment firms, with major funding rounds and the involvement of established exchanges indicating a move towards mainstream acceptance [1][6]. Funding and Valuation - Kalshi, a prediction market platform, raised over $300 million in its Series D funding round on October 10, achieving a valuation of $5 billion, up from $2 billion just four months prior [2][3]. - The funding round was led by prominent firms such as Sequoia Capital and a16z, with participation from other notable investors [2]. Company Background and Development - Kalshi was founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, both of whom have backgrounds in major financial institutions [3][4]. - The platform aims to simplify trading on event outcomes, addressing a gap in the market where investors lacked direct methods to trade on specific events [4]. Regulatory Milestones - Kalshi became the first fully regulated platform in the U.S. to offer legal election trading, overcoming initial regulatory hurdles with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [4][5]. Market Potential and Growth - Kalshi has seen a 200-fold increase in trading volume over the past year, reaching $50 billion, and has captured over 60% of global prediction market activity [6][7]. - The prediction market is viewed as a potential major asset class, with the ability to directly trade based on real-world events [6][8]. Competitive Landscape - Kalshi's main competitor, Polymarket, recently raised $2 billion, achieving a post-money valuation of $9 billion, and has gained traction during the 2024 U.S. presidential election [6][7]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is also entering the prediction market space, planning to launch financial contracts linked to sports events and economic indicators [7][8]. Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The simplicity and intuitiveness of prediction markets are seen as key factors for their potential widespread adoption, contrasting with the complexity of traditional financial products [8]. - The growth potential of prediction markets is viewed as limitless, with the possibility of them becoming as large as the biggest financial markets [8].

Cryptocurrency Promotion & Referral Programs - OKX DEX wallet discount registration link provided [1] - Binance wallet fee discount code offered [1] - Binance referral link available [1] Social Media & Community Channels - Twitter link for Victalk provided [1] - Telegram group link for community engagement shared [1] - Telegram username Victalk2021 provided [1] Cryptocurrency & Meme Coin Focus - Mentions of Web3, Binance, ETH, BTC, and Crypto [1] - Focus on meme coins, specifically $TRUMP (川普币), and mentions of Trump and Musk [1]

预测赛道将是即Perp、稳定币之后最热，项目估值最高的赛道也是散户能参与撸毛的赛道值得重点参与何币 (@hebi555):Perp爆火之后下一个爆点赛道将是预测市场polymarket发币将引爆整个赛道一个不亚于Perp的赛道目前币安在重点关注这个市场了并且投资了https://t.co/MQJ4W0hnkGbieget已经下场做了预测项目了usv领投了@theclearingco的种子轮1500W美金 ...

Perp爆火之后下一个爆点赛道将是预测市场polymarket发币将引爆整个赛道一个不亚于Perp的赛道目前币安在重点关注这个市场了并且投资了https://t.co/MQJ4W0hnkGbieget已经下场做了预测项目了usv领投了@theclearingco的种子轮1500W美金 ...

Core Insights - A mysterious trader, using the account "6741," made significant bets on María Corina Machado winning the Nobel Peace Prize just 12 hours before the announcement, raising her winning probability from around 5% to 70% [3][5] - The incident has raised concerns about insider trading, prompting an investigation by the Norwegian Nobel Institute to determine if internal information was leaked [3][4] - This event highlights the regulatory gaps in the rapidly growing prediction market, particularly on platforms like Polymarket, which operates offshore and is not subject to U.S. laws against insider trading [8] Market Dynamics - The Polymarket platform has seen a surge in valuation, reaching $8 billion, with the Intercontinental Exchange planning to invest up to $2 billion, indicating growing interest from mainstream financial institutions [4][10] - The platform allows users to bet on various events, reflecting traders' judgments on future probabilities, but does not prohibit insider trading, creating a gray area in market operations [8][10] Trading Behavior - The account "6741" placed a $1,500 bet on Machado and $1,085 against a previously favored candidate, significantly impacting the odds in a relatively small market [7] - Other traders quickly followed suit, with one account named "GayPride" profiting over $85,000 as Machado's winning probability fluctuated between 60% and 71% [7] Regulatory Environment - Polymarket's operations are not regulated in the same way as traditional markets, leading to questions about the legality of trades based on leaked information [8] - Some economists argue that insider trading could enhance the predictive accuracy of markets, contrasting with regulated platforms like Kalshi, which prohibit such practices [8] Future Prospects - Polymarket's expansion plans include a potential return to the U.S. market after acquiring a CFTC-licensed exchange, with sports betting seen as a significant growth opportunity [10]