Economic Overview - In May, the national economy showed overall stability and progress, with a notable increase in economic resilience [1][10] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, continuing a trend of rapid growth [3] - The digital product manufacturing sector saw a significant increase of 9.1% in added value [3] Industrial Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector's added value increased by 9.0%, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [3] - The demand for new production capabilities has been strongly supported by recent policies, contributing to industrial production growth [3] Consumer Market - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, which is an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown significant effects, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 53.0% [5] Trade and Exports - The total value of goods imports and exports in May was 38,098 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, with exports increasing by 6.3% [8] - Despite a global economic slowdown, trade with ASEAN and Belt and Road Initiative countries continues to grow [8] Policy and Future Outlook - A series of macroeconomic policies have been implemented to stabilize growth, with positive effects observed since late last year [10] - The government has a robust policy toolkit to dynamically adjust and respond to changing economic conditions, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development [10]

6月17日，广州市召开第十一届广州国际投资年会新闻发布会，会上记者获悉，广州市定于6月26-27日 在广州市白云国际会堂举办第十一届广州国际投资年会。 1-4月新增投资1615亿元，制造业占比超50% 广州国际投资年会已连续举办十届，已发展成为广州乃至粤港澳大湾区与世界连接的开放枢纽。据了 解，本届年会将通过"线上+线下"的形式举办，并延续历届年会的"投资广州·投资未来"主题。年会已经 获得工商界、科技界、投资界等社会各界的高度关注，截至6月16日，共有800多名嘉宾报名参会，既包 括世界500强企业、央企、中国企业500强的高层，也包括人工智能、低空经济、新型储能、生物医药、 高端装备、清洁技术等新质生产力领域的企业代表。 打造全球合作新高地： 设立"十五运"城市合伙人展示环节，增设"广州市投资发展机遇"展览专区 作为广州对外开放的"金名片"，广州国际投资年会已连续举办十届，成为全球投资者观察中国经济、布 局湾区机遇的重要窗口。 发布会上记者获悉，本届年会设置主题大会、闭门会议、产业发展空间推介、广州之夜、产业考察等5 大系列活动，呈现四大亮点。 在创新政企对话平台方面，本届年会将传统的市领导"一对一"会见 ...

由上海社科院撰写的《上海经济发展报告（2025）》今天正式发布，根据对上海宏观经济形势的分析与研判，专家预测今年全市经济将保持稳健增长的趋 势。但随着营商环境的不断提升，以及新质生产力的全方位布局，有望带来发展新动能。 上海社科院经济研究所所长、《上海经济发展报告（2025）》主编沈开艳说，我们上海要发挥五个中心的联动发展、耦合共生、相互赋能的优势，推进创新 链、产业链、资金链、人才链的深度融合，促进新质生产力发展。 2024年上海的GDP达到了5.39万亿元，同比增长了5%。今年的目标仍然设定在5%左右，专家认为这显示了经济保持稳健增长的趋势，也体现了上海在复杂 国际环境下经济的韧性。依托五个中心建设和新质生产力的培育，上海需要在重点领域持续发力。 上海社科院经济研究所副研究员谢婼青说，2025年上海经济将延续稳健增长的趋势，未来我们需要在高端制造、数字经济、绿色能源、消费创新等领域持续 突破，优化营商环境，吸引全球高端要素的集聚。 当前数字经济和人工智的快速发展为经济社会领域带来深刻变革，着力挖掘其中蕴藏的大量技术革新和产业机遇。专家提出，上海应当发挥自身优势，通过 大力培育和发展新质生产力，来提升实体经 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core View - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of a slight decline in supply and demand. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is below the 0 - axis and the red bar is expanding. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Content Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,570 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; LME 3 - month copper is 9,698 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai copper is 184,424 hands, down 7,819 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 10,546 hands, up 6,664 hands. LME copper inventory is 107,325 tons, down 7,150 tons; the inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 101,943 tons, down 5,461 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 54,600 tons, down 1,725 tons; the warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 54,541 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,715 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,745 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 40 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 145 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 95.59 dollars/ton, up 22.18 dollars. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 44.75 dollars/kiloton, down 1.46 dollars [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,020 yuan/metal ton, up 50 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 69,720 yuan/metal ton, up 50 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,190 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,050 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper is 570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 5. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative value of grid infrastructure investment is 1,408.16 billion yuan, up 451.95 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 36,234 billion yuan, up 8,504.43 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,240,000 million pieces, up 73,000 million pieces [2]. 6. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.42%, down 0.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.75%, down 0.35%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 12.12%, up 0.0033%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.07, down 0.0017 [2]. 7. Industry News - In May, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises nationwide increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. In the first 5 months, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The new development momentum of high - end manufacturing and digital economy continued to grow. From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 36,234 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. In May, the housing prices in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month. In June, the manufacturing activity in New York State contracted more than expected [2].

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in May is stable and shows progress, characterized by five keywords: stable growth, steady operation, continuous improvement, accumulating momentum, and resilience [1] Industrial Performance - In May, the industrial production showed steady growth with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in the added value of large-scale industries, supported by advancements in high-end, intelligent, and green development [2] - The consumption market saw a significant rebound, with the total retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] Consumer Trends - The policy of replacing old consumer goods has effectively stimulated consumer potential, leading to rapid growth in sales of related products. Retail sales of household appliances, communication equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture increased by 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively [2] - Emerging consumption models such as live streaming sales and instant retail are maturing, while sectors like the silver economy and low-altitude economy are developing rapidly, indicating new growth points in consumer economics [2] Foreign Trade - In May, the total import and export value reached 38,098 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.7%. The trade structure continues to optimize, with private foreign trade enterprises demonstrating strong market expansion capabilities [3] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate in May was 5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the youth unemployment rate declining for three consecutive months [4] - The stable employment situation is supported by steady economic growth, favorable macro policies, and the development of industries with significant employment capacity [4] Future Employment Strategies - To address employment pressures, it is essential to enhance vocational skills training, improve labor supply and demand matching, and promote quality employment to ensure economic stability and social harmony [6] Economic Stability and Support - The economic fundamentals remain strong, with stable growth momentum and high-quality development trends unchanged. The macro policy toolbox is well-stocked, allowing for dynamic adjustments to ensure continued economic stability [7][8]

Group 1 - The event is a lecture titled "Structured Beliefs and Fund Investment," scheduled for June 20, 2025, at Tsinghua University [2] - The lecture will be presented by Xiong Wei, a professor at Princeton University, with a focus on the intersection of finance and economics [4][6] - The event is organized by the Department of Finance at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management and the Global Institute for Common Development [2] Group 2 - Xiong Wei's research interests include capital market imperfections, behavioral finance, digital economy, and the Chinese economy [4][6] - He has received several prestigious awards, including the 2018 China Economics Prize and the 2014 Sun Yefang Financial Innovation Award [4][6] - The lecture will utilize insights from a study analyzing fund managers' perceptions of government policies and their impact on investment decisions and market outcomes [7][9] Group 3 - The study constructs a countercyclical policy beliefs measure (CCP) to capture fund expectations about policies mitigating economic shocks [7][9] - Findings indicate that fund managers' market beliefs positively predict market returns, and CCP beliefs enhance this predictive power, improving fund performance [8][9] - The research emphasizes the significance of structured beliefs in shaping investment decisions and market results [8][9] Group 4 - The event is open to Tsinghua University students, with specific registration instructions for students from different departments [10] - The lecture will be conducted in English with Chinese explanations [11]

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exhibited a narrow fluctuation pattern, with major indices showing muted performance [1] - A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.19% to 3382.14 points, while the Shenzhen Component remained flat and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.14% [1] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dipped by 0.13% to 24028.83 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and the China Enterprises Index also experiencing slight declines [1] Industry Performance - A-shares displayed a clear rotation in technology themes, driven by a significant overnight surge of over 283% in brain-computer interface concepts in the US market [2] - The stablecoin concept remained active due to expectations of major policy announcements in Hong Kong, while the solid-state battery sector gained traction ahead of an industry forum [2] - In contrast, the healthcare sector in Hong Kong faced pressure, with some pharmaceutical companies experiencing volatility due to new drug development progress [2] - The durable goods and consumer services sectors also showed weakness, while the industrial sector saw strength, particularly among leading optical technology firms [2] Driving Factors - The structural market dynamics in A-shares are influenced by three main factors: external market sentiment, policy and event catalysts, and capital rotation strategies [2] - The healthcare sector's adjustments in Hong Kong are linked to individual company events and market sentiment fluctuations, while the industrial sector benefits from domestic growth-supporting policies [2] Future Outlook - The macro environment and policy direction remain critical, with steady growth in industrial output and consumption providing fundamental support for the market [3] - The People's Bank of China has conducted two reverse repurchase operations this month, injecting a net of 200 billion yuan into the market, indicating a generally ample liquidity environment [3] - Short-term market trends may continue to exhibit oscillatory dynamics, with high-position themes in A-shares facing increased volatility and the healthcare sector in Hong Kong under valuation pressure [3] - Key areas for mid-term investment focus include AI computing power, solid-state batteries, and commercial aerospace, as these sectors are viewed as priorities for institutional investment [3] - The evolution of core market contradictions, such as the timing of Federal Reserve policy shifts and developments in the domestic real estate market, will significantly influence mid-term market direction [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the digital economy theme index and its constituent stocks, with a slight decline observed in the index and mixed performance among individual stocks [1] - The digital economy ETF has seen significant growth in share volume, increasing by 18 million shares over the past month, ranking it among the top half of comparable funds [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the digital economy theme index account for 50.98% of the total index weight, indicating a concentration in key players within the digital economy sector [2][4] Group 2 - The recent FORCE conference by Volcano Engine showcased advancements in AI, including the release of several new models, reflecting trends in the AI industry such as improved cost-performance of domestic large models and potential for accelerated deployment of agents [1] - The digital economy ETF closely tracks the performance of the digital economy theme index, which includes companies involved in digital infrastructure and high levels of digitalization [2] - The performance of individual stocks within the index varied, with notable gainers like ChipLink Integration and Jiangbolong, while stocks like Cambricon and Runze Technology experienced significant declines [1][4]

2025 年 6 月 17 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、白银、螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻 璃、纯碱甲醇期货将偏弱震荡 原油期货将偏弱宽幅震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3890 和 3905 点，支撑位 3850 和 3840 点；IH2506 阻力位 2689 和 2699 点，支撑位 2664 和 2653 点；IC2506 阻力位 5801 和 5817 点，支撑位 5729 和 5700 点；IM2506 阻力位 616 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Capital University of Economics and Business (CUEB) is a modern, multi-disciplinary university with a strong focus on economics and management, supported by law, literature, science, and engineering disciplines [2] - CUEB has 5 doctoral degree authorization points and 1 doctoral point in auditing, with applied economics ranked in the top 7% nationally and business management in the top 12% [2] - The university's core disciplines in economics and business rank in the top 1% globally according to ESI, placing 30th nationally and 6th among finance-related universities [2] Group 2: 2025 Enrollment Policy and Talent Development - The enrollment plan for 2025 will see a significant increase in student numbers, with specific quotas to be announced after approval [3] - The introduction of the "Zhuoyu Class" program allows students to choose courses without subject restrictions, promoting personalized knowledge structures [3] - CUEB is enhancing its digital talent training with new programs in artificial intelligence and data science, aiming to cultivate interdisciplinary skills [4] Group 3: Financial College Highlights - The Financial College at CUEB aims to build a "financial + AI" talent hub, with a complete academic system and strong research capabilities [5][6] - New programs include a financial technology major and an upgraded international finance English class, focusing on digital currency and blockchain [7] - The college emphasizes practical training through partnerships with leading financial institutions and offers a robust employment support system [9]