1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, in Q2 2025, China's GDP growth rate continued to hold steady, showing positive economic data. Sino-US tariff tensions significantly eased, and the effect of front-loading exports was remarkable. The central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements, and rolled out a package of financial policies to stabilize the economy and expectations. Large - scale investment projects in China commenced, and sentiment in the capital market improved. With the money market interest rate remaining low, but risk appetite rising, government bonds are expected to decline [3][72]. - In the stock market, hotspots rotated. As funds spilled over from the banking sector to other heavy - weighted sectors, the strength of stock indices became differentiated. IH shifted to wide - range fluctuations, while IF, IC, and IM may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid correction in the hyped sectors [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Part 3.1.1 Stock Index Trend Analysis - From late September 2024 to the National Day, the A - share market rose continuously. After the National Day, it opened high and then fell. In November 2024, the market rebounded slightly, and in mid - December, it declined. Around the New Year's Day in 2025, the stock market had three consecutive negative days, and trading volume shrank to 1 trillion. After the Spring Festival, the market rebounded, and trading volume increased to 2 trillion. In March 2025, the market reached a new high of 5755.58 and then quickly fell. On April 7, there was a sharp single - day decline, with the Guozheng A - share Index dropping by 9.29%. After reaching the lowest point of 4820.80 on April 9, the market rebounded. In May, the market rebounded to 5500 and then fluctuated with shrinking volume. In June, stock market fluctuations weakened, and in late June, the stock index rose continuously driven by the banking stocks. In July, it broke through the high point after the sharp rise on September 24, 2024, and trading volume increased to around 2 trillion [4]. - The four major stock indices showed differentiation. In 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index fell in January, rebounded in February, dropped sharply in April, and then rebounded. In July, it reached a new high of 2824.86 but was lower than the high point on September 24, 2024. The CSI 300 Index also reached a new high in July. The CSI 500 Index filled the gap in July after failing to do so in May. The CSI 1000 Index rose rapidly in July and exceeded all high points since September 24, 2024 [5]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Fluctuations and Premium/Discount Situations - In January 2025, stock index fluctuations further decreased, and in February, there was a significant rebound. In March, there was a slight decline, and in April, there were large - scale fluctuations. During the rapid rebound of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300, the stock index futures of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were at a large discount. Fluctuations decreased in May and June, and in July, there was a further rebound. The long - term contracts of IC and IM gradually returned to normal. The premium/discount of the Shanghai 50 Index dropped to within ±5 points, while the far - month contracts of IC had a discount of over 300 points [15]. 3.1.3 Industry Strength and Weakness Transformation - The CSI 300 Index declined in January 2025, rebounded significantly in February, slightly declined in March, had a single - day sharp decline in April, and then quickly rebounded. It fluctuated at a high level in May and June and rose rapidly in July. In terms of reversal intensity, most sectors showed positive trends, with materials having a reversal intensity of up to 13, and pharmaceuticals and industry exceeding 8. Only the public utilities sector declined, with a decline of only 2% [16][19]. 3.1.4 Industry ALPHA Risk - Return - The tracking of ALPHA risk - return statistics shows that the consistency of the CSI 300 sector's trend has increased. The telecommunications and materials sectors have full - cycle ALPHA. The full - cycle ALPHA values are (0.467%, 0.284%, 0.114%; 0.107%, 0.088%, 0.058%). Most sectors' full - cycle ALPHA values are inconsistent, and the ALPHA values of the industrial, optional, and consumer sectors are negative [23]. 3.2 Government Bond Futures Analysis 3.2.1 Economic Steady Recovery - From 2023 to 2025, GDP growth showed fluctuations but generally maintained a certain level. CPI and PPI data indicated that the economy was in a deflationary state, with industrial PPI remaining negative and the year - on - year decline expanding. Industrial added value increased year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth was relatively stable. The manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI fluctuated, and the non - manufacturing PMI was more affected by policy changes. Consumption growth was unstable [28][35]. 3.2.2 Slightly Rising Monetary投放 Growth Rate - In 2024 and 2025, the amount of new RMB loans fluctuated greatly. The growth rate of M1 first declined and then increased, indicating that the recovery speed of social hot money accelerated. The growth rate of M2 showed a downward trend. The central bank continuously implemented interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the LPR decreased. The yield to maturity of government bonds fluctuated, and the overall trend was downward [43][49]. 3.2.3 Monetary Policy - From 2024 to 2025, the central bank carried out a series of monetary policy operations, including borrowing government bonds, conducting temporary open - market operations, adjusting the LPR, and implementing a package of financial policies in May 2025, which included reducing the reserve requirement ratio, lowering policy interest rates, and increasing the quota of re - loans [50][57].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 19 日 股指期货：驱动回潮 震荡格局依旧 关注因素：国内数据经济等。 2、 策略建议： ● 短线策略。短线策略。日内交易频率可参照 1 分钟和 5 分钟 K 线图，同时 IF、IH、IC、IM 止损 位和止盈位可参照 76 点/95 点、58 点/31 点、66 点/121 点、84 点/142 点去设定。 ● 趋势策略。短线高抛低吸。预计 IF 主力合约 IF2506 核心运行区间 3770 和 3964 点；IH 主力合 约 IH2506 核心运行区间 2646 和 2768 点；IC 主力合约 IC2506 核心运行区间 5552 和 5924 点；IM 主力 合约 IM2506 核心运行区间 5869 和 6264 点。 ● 跨品种策略。空 IF（或 IH）多 IC(或 IM)的策略持有。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周股指在创下阶段性高点后回落，沪指在上周三一度突破 3400 点大关。股 市回升主要受两方面因素影响，其一是贸易协议后 ...