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沥青早报-20250620
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:20
s 疯皮期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/20 | | 指标 | 5/21 | 6/11 | 6/17 | 6/18 | 6/19 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3519 | 3461 | 3644 | 3695 | 3738 | 43 | 277 | | | BU06 | 3537 | 3530 | 3381 | 3416 | 3448 | 32 | -82 | | | BU09 | 3475 | 3461 | 3644 | રે કે રહ્યું હતું કે જે તે તે પ્રાપ્ય થયેલી છે. આ ગામના લોકોનો મુખ્ય વ્યવસાય ખેતી, ખેતમજૂરી તેમ જ પશુપા | 3738 | 43 | 277 | | 行 | BU12 | 3290 | 3299 | 3482 | 3527 | 3577 | 50 | 278 | | | BU03 | 3249 | 3251 | 3379 | 3434 ...
燃料油早报-20250619
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:59
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking was volatile. Crude oil prices rose significantly. High - sulfur oil with a large proportion of Iranian supply performed well in oil product profits. The 380 - month spread was volatile, the 7 - 8 spread was $11.5, the basis strengthened, and the FU internal and external near - and far - month contracts were differentiated. The Singapore 0.5 cracking declined, the month spread strengthened month - on - month, and the basis strengthened. Singapore's on - shore inventory continued to accumulate, high - sulfur floating storage accumulated, low - sulfur floating storage fluctuated at a low level, ARA slightly reduced inventory, floating storage inventory fluctuated, Fujairah's on - shore inventory accumulated, and floating storage increased significantly. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased significantly, and Russia's shipments decreased month - on - month. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future due to US sanctions. High - sulfur oil is still in the peak power - generation season, the near - month contracts of FU are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. The subsequent focus is on Middle - East shipments, and the large downward drive inside and outside has decreased. LU production increased month - on - month [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by -$0.69, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by -$3.04, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by $0.15, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by $2.86, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 changed by -$5.90, LGO - Brent M1 changed by -$0.02, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by -$2.35 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by $3.70, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by $3.47, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by $8.86, Singapore GO M1 changed by $2.67, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by -$1.17, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed by -$10.90 [2] Spot Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the FOB 380cst price in Singapore changed by $1.91, FOB VLSFO changed by $9.11, the 380 basis changed by -$0.48, the high - sulfur internal - external spread changed by -$1.3, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread changed by $1.4 [3] Domestic FU Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, FU 01 changed by 91, FU 05 changed by 80, FU 09 changed by 86, FU 01 - 05 changed by 11, FU 05 - 09 changed by -6, and FU 09 - 01 changed by -5 [3] Domestic LU Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, LU 01 changed by 90, LU 05 changed by -44, LU 09 changed by 124, LU 01 - 05 changed by 134, LU 05 - 09 changed by -168, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 34 [4]
燃料油早报-20250618
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 05:12
| 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/06/11 | 409.51 | 461.45 | -2.98 | 616.64 | -155.19 | 15.03 | 51.94 | | 2025/06/12 | 417.96 | 468.13 | -2.76 | 625.97 | -157.84 | 16.61 | 50.17 | | 2025/06/13 | 441.01 | 487.74 | -2.60 | 662.68 | -174.94 | 16.61 | 46.73 | | 2025/06/16 | 440.56 | 480.32 | -1.20 | 661. ...
LPG早报-20250618
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 03:53
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are marginally improving but still under pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content a) Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: In the civil gas segment, prices in Shandong remained stable at 4610, increased by 61 to 4677 in East China, and decreased by 30 to 4690 in South China. The price of ether - post carbon four decreased by 20 to 4960. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4610. The PP price declined, PDH production profit worsened, and FEI production profit was lower than CP. The PG futures price was revised downwards, the basis of the 07 contract increased by 16 to 228, and the 07 - 09 spread decreased by 18 to 160. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed [1] - **Weekly Changes**: Civil gas prices rose significantly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil gas at 4603. There were signs of stabilization in Shandong; the market in East China was generally weak due to the expected commissioning of Zhenhai Phase II but improved marginally due to the postponed commissioning of Daxie; the spot market in South China rebounded due to the impact of typhoons on ship arrivals. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 07 contract weakened to 221 (-130), and the 07 - 09 spread was 195 (+10). The external market price strengthened significantly, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. In terms of spreads, PG - CP reached 18 US dollars (+27), and FEI - CP reached -19 (+31). Freight rates increased, and the waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs decreased [1] b) Production Profit and Market Conditions - PDH production profit worsened, and FEI production profit was lower than CP. The profitability of alkylated oil decreased significantly, MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, isomerization etherification profit decreased, and the spreads of FEI - MOPJ and naphtha cracking decreased [1] c) Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Port inventories and factory inventories decreased. Arrivals and external shipments declined, and it is expected that external shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future [1] - **Demand**: Chemical demand improved overall. The operating rate of PDH increased to 64.3%, the operating rate of alkylation increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production increased significantly. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1] d) Futures Market - The PG futures price was adjusted. The basis of the 07 contract and the 07 - 09 spread changed. The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9005 lots (-335) [1]
沥青早报-20250618
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 01:07
山东标品基差(+80) 500 300 100 -300 -500 s 疯皮期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/18 | | 指标 | 5/19 | 6/9 | 6/13 | 6/16 | 6/17 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3502 | 3488 | 3628 | 3667 | 3644 | -23 | 156 | | | BU06 | 3502 | 3516 | 3600 | 3650 | 3381 | -269 | -135 | | | BU09 | 3430 | 3488 | 3628 | 3667 | 3644 | -23 | 156 | | | BU12 | 3231 | 3320 | 3469 | 3499 | 3482 | -17 | 162 | | 据面 | BU03 | 3227 | 3267 | 3394 | 3423 | 3379 | -44 | 112 | | | 成交量 | 349940 | 463328 | 758434 | ...
永安期货燃料油早报-20250617
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 13:42
| | | 燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/17 | 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-05 | LU 05-09 | LU 09-01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/10 | 3431 | 3358 | 3518 | 73 | -160 | 87 | | 2025/06/11 | 3414 | 3348 | 3524 | 66 | -176 | 110 | | 2025/06/12 | 3496 | 3461 | 3609 | 35 | -148 | 113 | | 2025/06/13 | 3671 | 3625 | 3785 | 46 | -160 | 114 | | 2025/06/16 | 3695 | 3620 | 3829 | 75 | -209 | 134 | | 变化 | 24 | -5 | 44 | 29 | -49 | 20 | | | | | 结论观点: 本周高硫裂解震荡,原油大幅上涨,高硫伊朗供应占比较大,油品利润中表现较好。380月差 震荡, 7-8月 ...
永安期货LPG早报-20250617
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 09:39
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG market are marginally improving but still under pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data and Analysis 3.1 Price and Basis Changes - **Daily Price Changes**: On June 16, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to 4610 (down 10), 4616 (up 53), and 4720 (up 80) respectively; the price of ether - post carbon four increased by 30 to 4980. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4610. The PG futures price rose significantly, with the basis of the 07 contract changing to 212 (down 9) and the 07 - 09 spread changing to 178 (down 17) [1] - **Weekly Changes**: The civil LPG price increased significantly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4603. The 07 contract basis weakened to 221 (down 130), and the 07 - 09 spread was 195 (up 10). The PG - CP spread was 18 US dollars (up 27), and the FEI - CP spread was - 19 (up 31) [1] 3.2 Market Factors - **Supply - related Factors**: The US - to - Far East arbitrage window closed. Port and factory inventories decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs decreased [1] - **Demand - related Factors**: Chemical demand improved overall. The PDH operating rate increased to 64.3%, the alkylation operating rate increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production increased significantly. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1] 3.3 Profit and Spread Analysis - **Profit Changes**: PDH production profit deteriorated, with FEI production profit lower than CP on a weekly basis and higher than CP on a daily basis. Alkylation oil profitability decreased significantly, MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, and isomerization etherification profit decreased [1] - **Spread Movements**: FEI - MOPJ and naphtha crack spreads decreased [1] 3.4 Other Information - The number of registered warrants was 9005 lots (down 335) [1]
燃料油早报-20250613
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 02:44
新 加 坡 燃 料 油 现 货 | 日期 | FOB 380cst | FOB VLSFO | 380基差 | 高硫内外价差 | 低硫内外价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/06 | 430.80 | 489.76 | 10.65 | 8.8 | 16.5 | | 2025/06/09 | 433.59 | 490.06 | 10.65 | 6.5 | 16.2 | | 2025/06/10 | 441.10 | 496.78 | 12.25 | 7.0 | 16.5 | | 2025/06/11 | 435.55 | 499.42 | 12.95 | 6.8 | 17.6 | | 2025/06/12 | 448.16 | 511.48 | 10.25 | 6.2 | 17.1 | | 变化 | 12.61 | 12.06 | -2.70 | -0.6 | -0.5 | | 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | FU 01 | FU ...
螺纹钢、热卷产业?险管理?报
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 01:41
螺纹钢、热卷产业风险管理日报 2025/06/12 严志妮 投资咨询证号:Z0022076 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 螺纹价格区间预测 | | 主力价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率 | 波动率百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 2800-3100 | 11.25% | 14.0% | | 热卷 | 2900-3200 | 11.37% | 9.74% | source: 南华研究,同花顺 螺纹风险管理策略建议 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失,可以根据企业的库存情 | RB2510 | | 40% | 3000-3 100 | | 产成品库存偏高,担心 | | 况,做空螺纹或是热卷期货来锁定利润,弥补企 | | 卖出 | | | | 管理 钢材价格下跌 | 多 | 业的生产成本 | HC2510 | ...
LPG早报-20250612
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:31
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market remain weak. Although the chemical demand in Shandong provides some support, there is significant supply pressure in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish [1]. - It is expected that the external release volume will continue to increase and the inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, with the PDH operating rate expected to rise next week. The demand for alkylation oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand, and the demand for C4 is expected to increase due to the planned start - up of multiple MTBE plants next week. Combustion demand is expected to decline as the temperature rises [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Daily Changes - In terms of civil gas, the price in Shandong remained stable at 4620, in East China increased by 1 to 4492, and in South China increased by 40 to 4630. The price of ether - after carbon four increased by 20 to 4830. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4492 [1]. - The PP price rose, and the profits of PP production from FEI and CP increased. The PG futures price fluctuated upwards. The basis of the 07 contract decreased by 10 to 362, and the spread between the 07 - 09 contracts increased by 7 to 210. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East was closed [1]. Weekly Views - Last week, the overall civil gas market was weak. Supported by chemical demand, the price in Shandong increased, while the price of ether - after carbon four decreased. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4449 [1]. - The PG futures price fluctuated strongly. The basis of the 07 contract weakened to 351, and the spread between contracts strengthened significantly. In the external market, FEI and MB were basically the same, and CP declined; the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external price difference strengthened, especially the PG - CP [1]. - The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed, and freight rates increased slightly. Among different product spreads, the production margin of PDH improved but remained poor; the production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylation oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. The FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and the factory inventories in Shandong decreased due to chemical demand. The arrival volume increased (mainly in South China), and the external release volume increased significantly [1]. - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9304 lots (- 565) [1].