甲醇日报 | 2025-07-01 伊朗甲醇进一步复工 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场分析 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润648元/吨（-13）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1943元/吨（-13），内蒙北线基差162元/吨（-1），内蒙南线1960元/吨（-100）；山东临沂2270元/吨（-10）， 鲁南基差89元/吨（+2）；河南2200元/吨（+0），河南基差19元/吨（+12）；河北2185元/吨（-15），河北基差64元/吨 （-3）。隆众内地工厂库存341550吨（-25800），西北工厂库存205500吨（-31500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单240700 吨（-34080），西北工厂待发订单119500吨（-30000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2790元/吨（-30），太仓基差409元/吨（-18），CFR中国287美元/吨（-4），华东进口价差301元/ 吨（+87），常州甲醇2435元/吨；广东甲醇2440元/吨（-15），广东基差59元/吨（-3）。隆众港口总库存670500吨（+84100）， 江苏港口库存356500吨（+63000）， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-01甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口月内空单回补，短期太仓现货或相对坚挺，然边库跟涨乏力，且随着部分内地货量持续流入港口套利， 或对港口市场存一定冲击，随着逼仓结束，港口高位回落概率大。内地方面，业者心态分歧严重，传统下游高温淡季以 及内地甲醇开工仍然高位，部分业者心态稍显谨慎。但同时当前产区工厂库存偏低，以及七月份甲醇装置检修集中，供 应端或将缩量，以及经过近期的回调之后当前价位下后期下跌空间有限，部分贸易商仍有一定的持货意愿不排除做多可 能，对内地价格有托底作用，预计本周内地价格震荡调整。需持续关注下周美国与伊朗会谈情况及外盘装置变化等 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, market risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was squeezed out, and methanol prices回调. Although the geopolitical situation may be volatile, methanol will gradually return to its fundamentals. The current domestic methanol supply - demand situation has little change, and the future impact may come from imports. Considering the impact on Iranian methanol supply, imports in July may decrease. With the support of low port inventories, the methanol price correction is expected to be limited. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2433 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.66%); MA05 closed at 2336 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.34%); MA09 closed at 2417 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (1.09%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Sichuan - Chongqing remained unchanged; the price in Hubei decreased by 45 yuan/ton (-1.89%), and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.50%); the price in Taicang increased by 120 yuan/ton (4.54%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 104 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged, while the price of Datong Q5500 increased by 5 yuan/ton (1.03%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.26%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged [1] - **Downstream Profit of Methanol**: The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 27.6 yuan/ton (5.23%); the profit of East China MTO decreased by 202 yuan/ton (-15.16%); the profit of acetic acid decreased by 33.27 yuan/ton (-10.27%); the profit of MTBE decreased by 41 yuan/ton (-27.98%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged [1] 3.4 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2384 yuan/ton, closing at 2417 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1620777 lots and an open interest of 857159, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 280 - 290 US dollars/ton. There are few fixed - price offers. The reference negotiation for far - future non - Iranian shipments is at +1.8 - 2%, and most of the formula - price negotiations this week are for the south. The far - future non - Iranian shipments were traded at +2 - 2.1%. In other Middle - East regions, the intended shipping price of a few far - future shipments is at +1.9%, but market participants are mostly on the sidelines, waiting for the resumption of a methanol plant in a Middle - East country [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, the market risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, and the methanol price dropped significantly. Although the geopolitical situation may be volatile, the market is no longer focused on conflict escalation. Methanol will gradually return to its own fundamentals. The domestic methanol supply - demand situation has little change and weak driving force. The possible impact on the future market lies in imports. Considering the impact on Iranian methanol supply, imports in July may decrease. With the support of the current low port inventory, the methanol price correction is expected to be limited. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2417 yuan/ton on June 25, up 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2328 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.30%); MA09 closed at 2391 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (0.50%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On June 25, the spot price in Taicang was 2645 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.38%); in Shandong, it was 2280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 1.30%); in Guangdong, it was 2455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.41%); in Shaanxi, it was 2065 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton (- 2.59%); in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, it remained unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1990 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 1.49%) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA remained unchanged at 228 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 427.50 yuan/ton and 485 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Yulin Q6000 was 495 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan/ton (0.51%) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 499.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 460.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO was 528.00 yuan/ton, up 52.80 yuan/ton (11.11%); the profit of East China MTO was - 1332.07 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan/ton (- 3.58%); the profit of acetic acid was 323.81 yuan/ton, down 5.77 yuan/ton (- 1.75%); the profit of MTBE was 146.52 yuan/ton, down 150.00 yuan/ton (- 50.59%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 252.40 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton (- 8.61%); the profit of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 518.00 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3. Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a narrow range, opening at 2383 yuan/ton, closing at 2391 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1052872 lots, and the open interest was 904409 lots, with volume shrinking and open interest increasing. All contracts had trading volumes during the trading day [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Today, the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - month is 275 - 284 US dollars/ton. Traders are mostly on the sidelines, and there is no news of actual transactions. In other regions of the Middle East, there is also a lack of active offer news. The reference negotiation price of cargoes from other Middle Eastern regions arriving in the near - far - month is + 1 - 1.2%. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of a certain country's device in the Middle East [1].

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-25 伊朗冲突放缓，甲醇价格大幅回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润720元/吨（-18）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2015元/吨（-18），内蒙北线基差236元/吨（+108），内蒙南线2060元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2305元/吨（-73）， 鲁南基差126元/吨（+53）；河南2240元/吨（-25），河南基差61元/吨（+100）；河北2220元/吨（+0），河北基差101 元/吨（+125）。隆众内地工厂库存367350吨（-11770），西北工厂库存237000吨（-100）；隆众内地工厂待发订单274780 吨（-27310），西北工厂待发订单149500吨（-17500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2640元/吨（-100），太仓基差261元/吨（+25），CFR中国302美元/吨（-4），华东进口价差89元 /吨（+27），常州甲醇2490元/吨；广东甲醇2465元/吨（-135），广东基差86元/吨（-10）。隆众港口总库存586400吨 （-65800），江苏港口库存293500吨（- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term port methanol inventory may accumulate. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2400 in the short term. The olefin industry's operation may continue to decline due to planned maintenance and potential load - reduction expectations. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, imports are expected to return, leading to a significant drop in methanol prices [3][4] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2379 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 28 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 896,735 lots, down 96,724 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 85,080 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,867, unchanged [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2020 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan. The East - Northwest price spread is 600 yuan/ton, down 117.5 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 241 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 306 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 346 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars. FOB Rotterdam is 285 euros/ton, up 12 euros. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread is - 40 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars [3] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas price is 3.68 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.22 dollars [3] Industry Situation - East China port inventory is 43.7 tons, down 3.1 tons; South China port inventory is 14.94 tons, down 3.48 tons. Methanol import profit is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 367,400 tons, down 11,700 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 88.65%, up 0.67% [3] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.39%, down 0.5%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.66%, up 0.96%; the acetic acid operating rate is 88.33%, down 7.32%; the MTBE operating rate is 63.71%, up 4.01%; the olefin operating rate is 89.22%, up 0.66%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 863 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.16%, up 0.83%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.01%, up 0.49%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 26.88%, up 1.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 26.88%, up 1.7% [3] Industry News - As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons (3.10% MoM); the pending orders of sample enterprises were 27.38 tons, down 2.83 tons (9.37% MoM). As of June 18, the total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 58.64 tons, down 6.58 tons. The overall production increased slightly. The inventory in the Northwest decreased, while some enterprises' inventory increased slightly. As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 88.97%, down 0.54% MoM [3] View Summary - Due to the short - term low arrival at ports, the port inventory decreased. The short - term port methanol inventory may accumulate. Attention should be paid to the change in the tradable volume in the coastal market and international situation changes [3] Tip for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main driver of the methanol market lies in the fluctuations of crude oil prices at the upstream cost end. After the US struck Iran, the oil price declined, indicating that the market believes the most intense expectations have been fulfilled, and there is limited room for further intensification. The market has started to trade on the expectation of Iran's plant resumption, leading to a high - opening and low - closing trend in the methanol futures market. Future attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's plant resumption. [3] - Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still low, and the port basis remains strong. There are concerns in the market about the loss - induced maintenance of methanol - to - olefins (MTO) plants that rely on imported methanol at ports. Attention should be paid to whether the MTO plant maintenance at the end of the month will materialize. [3] - In the inland region, the operating rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, and the inventory accumulation rate of inland factories is still slow, indicating a certain resilience in inland demand. However, the high price difference between ports and inland areas is a factor dragging down the methanol price from reaching a peak. [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads are presented, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China. [26][31][32] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol plants in China (including integrated plants). [34][35][37] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures present various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between other regions. [39][46][49] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, the production profit of acetic acid in Jiangsu, the production profit of MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and the production profit of dimethyl ether in Henan. [45][55]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, methanol port inventories decreased as expected. In the short term, port methanol inventories may accumulate. Attention should be paid to changes in the tradable volume in the coastal market and international situation changes. - Due to the planned maintenance of Zhongmei Mengda and a slight reduction in the load of East China enterprises, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased last week. This week, with the ongoing maintenance of Zhongmei Mengda's olefins and the expected load reduction of olefin enterprises in East China, the olefin industry's operation may continue to decline. - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2450 - 2550 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2504 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. - The main contract's open interest was 993,459 lots, an increase of 108,755 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders were - 117,489 lots, a decrease of 47,331 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts was 7,867, a decrease of 58. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2002.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton. - The East - Northwest price difference was 717.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 216 yuan/ton. - CFR China Main Port was 306 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 346 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. - FOB Rotterdam was 285 euros/ton, an increase of 12 euros/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference was - 40 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.9 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.08 US dollars/million British thermal units. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 43.7 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 14.94 tons, a decrease of 3.48 tons. - The methanol import profit was 89.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.64 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 129.23 tons, an increase of 50.46 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 367,400 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 88.65%, an increase of 0.67%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 50.39%, a decrease of 0.5%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.66%, an increase of 0.96%. - The acetic acid operating rate was 88.33%, a decrease of 7.32%; the MTBE operating rate was 63.71%, an increase of 4.01%. - The olefin operating rate was 89.22%, an increase of 0.66%; the methanol - to - olefins disk profit was - 1050 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 22.16%, an increase of 0.83%; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 22.01%, an increase of 0.49%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 26.88%, an increase of 1.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 26.88%, an increase of 1.7%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.74 tons, a decrease of 1.18 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 27.38 tons, a decrease of 2.83 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 9.37%. - As of June 18, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 58.64 tons, a decrease of 6.58 tons from the previous data. The inventory in the East China region decreased by 3.10 tons, and the inventory in the South China region decreased by 3.48 tons. - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 88.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. [2] 4. Information to be Followed - Wednesday's inventory data of Longzhong enterprises and ports - International situation changes [2]

审核：陈小国，从业资格号:F03100622，交易咨询号：Z0021111 甲醇供需概况 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货甲醇周报 高基差下，甲醇期货或偏强震荡 20250622 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：据隆众资讯统计，本周，中国甲醇样本生产企业库存预计为34.76万吨，较本期或继续小幅去库；显性外轮卸货量预计环比增量， 加之多个内地区域至港口套利空间开启，部分下游采内地货源为主，进口表需将有所下降，预计港口甲醇库存或累库，关注外轮卸货 速度。 ◆ 供应：据隆众资讯统计，本周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量207.63万吨左右，产能利用率92.14%左右，较本期增加； 甲醇进口样本到港计划预估26.31万吨，其中显性25.31万吨，非显性1万吨；内贸预估2.5-3.0万吨附近。 ◆ 需求：据隆众资讯统计，本周，随着中煤蒙大烯烃检修陆续进行，以及华东地区烯烃企业可能出现的降负荷预期，烯烃行业开工被动 继续降低；二甲醚、氯化物、醋酸开工率提升，甲醛开工率下降。 ◆ ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-19 港口再度去库，基差快速走强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润703元/吨（+5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1998元/吨（+5），内蒙北线基差81元/吨（-57），内蒙南线2000元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2355元/吨（-25），鲁 南基差38元/吨（-87）；河南2245元/吨（-25），河南基差-72元/吨（-87）；河北2195元/吨（-5），河北基差-62元/吨 （-67）。隆众内地工厂库存367350吨（-11770），西北工厂库存237000吨（-100）；隆众内地工厂待发订单274780吨 （-27310），西北工厂待发订单149500吨（-17500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2700元/吨（+85），太仓基差183元/吨（+23），CFR中国298美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-3元/ 吨（+29），常州甲醇2515元/吨；广东甲醇2570元/吨（+60），广东基差53元/吨（-2）。隆众港口总库存586400吨（-65800）， 江苏港口库存293500吨（-18500），浙江港口 ...