高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissmann认为，随着投资者押注经济表现处于不冷不热的理想状态，市场 对于关税问题"有点过于放松了"。如果关税的不确定性加剧，我们开始看到硬数据中出现一些负面影响 的初步迹象，市场可能会质疑目前对于理想经济状态的定价。预计征税的初步影响将在本月的第二季度 财报季中显现。市场仅预计关税只会影响一小部分公司。如果市场有任何理由开始对良好的盈利能力感 到担心，哪怕只是几个季度，可能也不得不略微重新定价。 ...

Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is once again overshadowing the financial markets [1] - As the deadline for tariff negotiations set by the U.S. approaches, global market tensions have increased, leading to declines in European and U.S. stock futures [2][5] - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on its automotive exports [3] Group 2 - U.S. Bank strategist Michael Hartnett suggests it may be time to sell stocks after the S&P 500 index reached a historical high following three months of gains [4][9] - Hartnett warns of rising bubble risks during the summer as the "Big and Beautiful" bill has been passed, indicating potential market corrections [10][11] - The report highlights significant capital outflows from U.S. growth stocks and mid-cap stocks, with $5 billion and $5.7 billion withdrawn respectively, marking the largest outflows since March 2023 [12][13] Group 3 - The June employment report may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see approach throughout the summer, delaying potential interest rate cuts [14] - According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is over a 95% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July, with a 70% chance of a rate cut in September [15]

当地时间4日，印度向世界贸易组织通报，由于美国对汽车及零部件加征的关税冲击印度出口，印度计 划对美国征收报复性关税。该提议还表示，印度保留对美国出口的部分产品提高关税的权利，但没有具 体说明关税税率或将对哪些商品征收关税。近期，印度和美国就关税问题展开磋商，双方在农业和乳制 品问题上一直无法达成一致意见。(央视新闻) ...

【冠通研究】 易涨难跌 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 1 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走尾盘拉涨。中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 连升两月至 49.7，新订单指 数回升至扩张区 16040 间，非制造业延续扩张。特朗普的高级贸易官员正在缩减与外国 达成全面对等协议的雄心，寻求达成范围更小的协议，以避免美国重新征收关税。伊朗 驻联合国大使强势表态：铀浓缩是伊朗不可剥夺的权利，永远不会停止！基本面来看， 供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.35 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上，铜供应量依然在走强；库存端全 球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜大幅去化，美铜依然在快速累库，国内目前铜去 化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端，截至截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。受铜关税事件影响，铜出口需 求增加，带动表观消费量的提振。全球经济不确定性的影响下，终端市场相对疲软，下 游也多以逢低拿货及刚需补货为主，6 月系消费淡季阶段，终端家电排产减少，高温下 房地 ...

欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员谢夫乔维奇6月30日表示，他将于7月1日前往美国华盛顿 进行贸易谈判。美国总统特朗普5月23日威胁要自6月1日起对进口自欧盟的商品征收50%关税。但5月25 日，特朗普宣布，将对欧盟50%关税的起征时间从6月1日延至7月9日。欧美双方此后就关税问题展开贸 易谈判。（央视） ...

美国财长贝森特：各国应当意识到，我们可能会在关税问题上回退至4月2日的水平。 ...

日本和美国正在继续进行认真的谈判。 日本首席谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：确认日美在关税问题上的立场。 拒绝对美国政府的言论发表评论。 ...

Group 1 - Trump's approval rating has dropped to a historical low of 43%, with 53% of Americans expressing dissatisfaction, indicating a net negative support rate exceeding 10% according to various polls [1][3] - The decline in support began after Trump's announcement of "liberation day" tariffs in April, which angered many voters, and subsequent actions such as suppressing protests and military actions against Iran further fueled opposition [3][5] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill pushed by Trump is facing significant challenges in the Senate, with a narrow vote to start debate and potential dissent from Republican senators due to controversial changes affecting social security and healthcare [5][6] Group 2 - The proposed bill is projected to result in 8.6 million Americans losing healthcare and a reduction in federal revenue by $3.67 trillion over the next decade, increasing national debt by $2.42 trillion [5][6] - Trump's strategy appears to rely on seeking economic agreements with China, similar to the $2 trillion agreements made during his visit to Saudi Arabia, as he hopes for Chinese investment and imports to bolster the U.S. economy [6][7] - The upcoming visit to China poses challenges, as China maintains a self-sufficient military and a large economy, requiring Trump to present substantial incentives to achieve favorable outcomes [7]

法国总统马克龙表示，法国希望达成一个"快速、务实"的贸易协议，但不会接受不平衡的条款。 随着7月9日欧美贸易谈判最后期限临近，久拖未决的贸易协议成为日前结束的欧盟峰会核心议题之一。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在峰会期间说，欧盟已收到美国就关税问题提出的"最新文件"，但她并未透露 美方具体要求。 分析人士认为，目前欧美分歧依然较大，即使双方能够按期达成协议，今后在执行层面仍将面临不少阻 碍。围绕短期谈判策略、整体让步空间和长远应对战略，欧盟官员的一些表态反映出多重考量。 风险抉择：要更快还是更好的协议 此次欧盟峰会期间，欧盟领导人公开表态均寻求与美达成贸易协议，但侧重点有所不同。 作为出口大国，德国总理默茨是支持速签协议的主要声音之一。他说："我们距离7月9日只剩不到两 周。根本不可能在这段时间内达成一个复杂的贸易协议。"他认为，从化工、钢铁到汽车，众多行业都 已经承受重压，企业岌岌可危。"我们必须尽快找到解决方案。" 然而，欧盟也担忧仓促推进协议可能造成利益严重失衡，即协议仅对美方有利而欧盟吃大亏。冯德莱恩 表示，欧盟正在评估美方最新提议。"我们的立场很明确：我们愿意达成协议，同时也在为无法达成令 人满意的协议做 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the expected "double - weak" production and demand of electrolytic aluminum limit the upside potential, but the actual situation is not weak and supports the price. The macro - variable of tariffs is反复, leading to an oscillating and convergent state of Shanghai aluminum prices in the first half of the year [8][9][10] - The supply and demand of alumina in the first quarter showed a significant differentiation of strong production and weak demand. The over - capacity situation led to a mainstream idea of short - selling at high prices [12][13] - The price of cast aluminum alloy mainly follows electrolytic aluminum. In the first half of the year, there was a certain positive correlation, but the correlation coefficient was relatively small. The price was affected by the fundamentals, showing a pattern of supply increase and demand decrease [18] - The apparent demand growth rate of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the first half of the year was lower than that of the same period last year, but still exceeded market expectations. The drivers were high aluminum - water ratio, scrap - to - primary substitution, and positive contributions from demand - side sectors such as photovoltaics, automobiles, exports, and power grids [20][21][22] - The demand growth rate of China's primary aluminum in 2025 is likely to be lower than that in 2024. The "new consumption" sectors such as photovoltaics and automobiles will have different impacts on demand in the first and second halves of the year [26] - The export demand of aluminum products may be positive. Although affected by factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates and US tariffs, market - based adjustment actions support the export demand [34][36][56] - The expected growth rate of China's primary aluminum demand for the whole year is between 3.3 - 4.5%, with a decline in the second half of the year. The supply side is in a low - speed supply environment, and the domestic and global markets are expected to be in short supply in the second half of the year [78][79][85] Group 3: Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 2025 First - Half Aluminum Product Line Market and Main Driving Logic Review - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The expected "double - weak" production and demand limit the upside, but the actual situation supports the price. The "Sell in May" market of LME aluminum was advanced, and tariff events led to cross - border arbitrage [8][9][11] - **Alumina**: The price almost halved from the high point. In the first quarter, production was strong and demand was weak. Capacity maintenance and ore - end disturbances provided phased boosts [12] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price followed electrolytic aluminum, but was weaker due to demand suppression. The ADC12 - A00 spread showed a trend of first widening and then narrowing [15][17][18] Core Issues in the First Half of the Year: Where Did the Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory Go and How Much Will It Be De - stocked? - The apparent demand growth rate of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was lower than that of the same period last year but exceeded expectations. The drivers were high aluminum - water ratio, scrap - to - primary substitution, and positive contributions from demand - side sectors [20][21][22] Demand - Side Analysis - **Photovoltaic Use of Aluminum**: In the first half of the year, there was a rush to install, but the inflection point came in the middle of the year. The growth rate of global and domestic photovoltaic installations is expected to decline, and China's photovoltaic use of primary aluminum is expected to decrease [25][26][29] - **Automobile Electrification and Lightweight Use of Aluminum**: The whole - year demand growth rate is expected to be close to 1 percentage point, with a decline in the second half of the year. New energy vehicle sales are expected to increase, contributing to the demand for primary aluminum [30] - **Export Demand**: Although affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates and US tariffs, the export demand may be positive. Market - based adjustment actions support the demand, and the impact of US tariffs on the export structure is significant [34][36][45] - **Domestic Terminal Industry Consumption**: In neutral and optimistic scenarios, it can contribute a demand growth rate of 2.3 - 3.5 percentage points. Infrastructure, power grid, and real estate investments have different impacts on aluminum demand [77] Supply - Side Analysis - China's primary aluminum production capacity is expected to increase slightly in 2025, with a production growth rate of about 2.3% for the whole year. The import volume of Russian aluminum ingots has remained high [79][80] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance - In the domestic market, under the neutral scenario, there is an expected shortage of about 19.3 tons for the whole year. The global market is expected to be short of 77 tons in 2025, and the shortage may expand in the second half of the year [85][86]