Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the defense industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The intensification of the India-Pakistan conflict has drawn significant attention to the military industry, with defense stocks rising by 3.70% on May 7, 2025, marking the highest increase among 31 sectors [1][6]. - The report highlights that geopolitical events can have a short-term impact on military stock performance, influenced by the relevance of the event to China, market risk appetite, and the duration of the event [2][6]. - In the medium to long term, the India-Pakistan conflict is expected to strengthen global military trade logic, with China being a key supplier to Pakistan, which has a high dependency on Chinese military imports [7][8]. Summary by Sections Short-term Impact of the India-Pakistan Conflict - The conflict is likely to provide ongoing support for military stock performance due to its proximity to China and the heightened geopolitical tensions [6][7]. - The market's risk appetite has been somewhat restored following recent financial policy adjustments, which may further bolster military stocks [6]. Medium to Long-term Impact on Military Trade - Pakistan is a significant importer of Chinese military products, with 63.02% of China's military exports going to Pakistan from 2020 to 2024, and 81.15% of Pakistan's military imports coming from China [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the military trade market will continue to grow, driven by China's competitive advantages and the evolving global security landscape [17][25]. Investment Trends and Directions - The military industry is expected to remain in a favorable cycle, with a focus on unmanned equipment, military intelligence, satellite internet, and electronic countermeasures as key investment opportunities [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of military trade in the context of the "Belt and Road" initiative, suggesting that it will serve as a new growth driver for China's military industry [25][30]. Global Military Trade Development - The global military trade market is projected to maintain a high level of activity, with increased military spending across various nations due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts [20][21]. - China's military exports are expected to shift from a recovery phase to a supply-demand resonance-driven growth phase by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [30][32]. Military Product Focus - The report indicates that military products will continue to concentrate on aviation, aerospace, and new domain weaponry, reflecting China's growing capabilities in these areas [49][50].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.8% to close at 3342.67 points, with a daily high of 3356.69 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.22% to close at 10104.13 points, reaching a high of 10248.98 points [1] - The ChiNext Index gained 0.51%, closing at 1996.51 points, with a peak of 2035.47 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was 0.31%, with the highest return from the China Asset Management ChiNext 50 ETF at 1.23% [2] - The highest performing industry ETF was the Penghua National Grain Industry ETF, yielding 2.29% [2] - The top strategy ETF was the CCB HuShen 300 Dividend ETF, with a return of 1.25% [2] - The best thematic ETF was the Fortune National Defense Leading ETF, achieving a return of 4.24% [2] ETF Performance Rankings - The top three ETFs by return were: 1. Fortune National Defense Leading ETF (4.24%) 2. CCB Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Corporate Governance ETF (3.9%) 3. Penghua National Defense ETF (3.78%) [6] - The three ETFs with the largest declines were: 1. Guotai National Innovation Drug Industry ETF (-3.06%) 2. Fortune National Innovation Drug Industry ETF (-2.89%) 3. Tibet Dongcai National Innovation Drug Industry ETF (-2.7%) [6] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by fund inflow were: 1. Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (inflow of 624 million) 2. E Fund ChiNext ETF (inflow of 494 million) 3. Southern National 1000 ETF (inflow of 446 million) [9] - The three ETFs with the largest outflows were: 1. Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF (outflow of 1.727 billion) 2. Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Comprehensive ETF (outflow of 444 million) 3. CMB National A500 ETF (outflow of 372 million) [10] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs by margin buying were: 1. Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (638 million) 2. E Fund ChiNext ETF (563 million) 3. Guotai National All-Index Securities Company ETF (348 million) [12] - The highest margin selling amounts were: 1. Huatai-PB HuShen 300 ETF (30.53 million) 2. Southern National 500 ETF (29.95 million) 3. Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF (12.38 million) [13] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities is optimistic about China's military trade market entering an upward cycle due to increased global military spending and frequent geopolitical conflicts, highlighting opportunities in drone and radar exports [14] - Guojin Securities anticipates that the military industry will face performance pressure in 2024, with a recovery expected in 2025, focusing on new models and equipment as investment themes [15]

全球军贸交易需求保持活跃，欧洲主流防务企业新增订单及积压订单均创新高，欧盟产能优先供给自身需求的背 景下，类比俄乌冲突后俄罗斯武器装备出口出现的空缺，#原采购欧盟防务产品的国家的军贸需求有望显著外溢。 #军贸推动企业穿越价格及需求周期，重视本轮我国军工企业内外需双轮驱动的#产能价值重估。 【广发军工|新专题】欧盟自主化战略下，＃军贸价值链迁移与产能价值重估的思考 现象：部分#海外军工股近期股价表现亮眼，被动加费到主动武装，当前欧洲核心在于#建设自主化的国防体制， 提出到2030年，成员国在EDTIB的国防装备采购达到50%，欧盟内部国防贸易额至少占欧盟国防市场份额的35%。 #欧防务企业订单饱满、产能紧张，全球军贸需求外溢可期。 全球军贸交易需求保持活跃，欧洲主流防务企业新 【广发军工|新专题】欧盟自主化战略下，＃军贸价值链迁移与产能价值重估的思考 现象：部分#海外军工股近期股价表现亮眼，被动加费到主动武装，当前欧洲核心在于#建设自主化的国防体制， 提出到2030年，成员国在EDTIB的国防装备采购达到50%，欧盟内部国防贸易额至少占欧盟国防市场份额的35%。 #欧防务企业订单饱满、产能紧张，全球军贸需求外溢 ...

再次提示军贸投资机会 20250507 摘要 • 成飞借壳中航电测上市，股价波动幅度达正负 20%，远超其他航空主机厂， 反映市场对其军工资产的高度关注。 • 印巴冲突中，巴基斯坦使用中国制造的歼-10、枭龙战斗机及霹雳-15 导弹， 而美国向印度提供卫星情报，突显了中国军贸与国际地缘政治的复杂关联。 • 中国军贸出口产品主要包括飞机、舰船、装甲车等八大系列，其中飞机和 舰船占比最高，巴基斯坦是中国最大的军事装备出口国，占比高达 42%。 • 中国武器装备出口策略转变，不再局限于性能减配版，而是通过出口先进 装备进行实战化检验，以提升整体军事能力。 • 2024 年珠海航展展示了歼-35 等先进航空装备，预示其将进入国际市场， 同时地面兵装的展示也促进了潜在客户的兴趣。 • 中国航展期间签署了约 400 亿美元的订单，显示出中国在武器装备出口方 面取得了巨大进展，军贸已成为中化集团的主责主业。 • 雷达产品领域推荐航天南湖和国睿科技，导弹领域关注菲利华、新力能等 公司，战斗机及军机领域关注成飞、中航沈飞等公司的出口业务。 Q&A 军工行业近期的市场表现如何？ 近期军工行业表现出色，尤其是在中信军工指数方面，今 ...

局部冲突升级下的军贸投资前景 20250507 摘要 • 印巴冲突中中国装备的优异表现，提升了其在国际军贸市场的认可度和竞 争力，尤其是在地缘政治复杂的国家市场，实战检验弥补了以往的劣势。 • 俄乌战争暴露了部分俄罗斯装备的缺陷，导致其市场份额下滑，而中国凭 借性价比优势和不断的技术创新，有望在全球军贸市场中占据更多份额。 • 全球地缘政治不稳定因素增加，各国军费开支不断增长，为军工板块投资 带来积极影响，尤其是在欧洲、美国及中国周边国家军费投入显著增加的 背景下。 • 中国军贸策略从"人无我有"向"人精我转"转变，通过提供差异化和高 性价比的装备，有望进一步打开国际空海主战装备采购局面，提升市场份 额。 • 俄罗斯在全球军贸市场份额下滑，为中国提供了新的机遇，尤其是在大中 型无人机、装甲车、弹药及远程火箭弹等领域，中国装备表现亮眼。 • 短期内，建议关注在印巴冲突中表现突出的军事设备产业链，如歼 10C 系 列战斗机及霹雳 15 空空导弹，以及相关核心公司，有望成为投资热点。 • 全球军费增加和军贸市场格局变化，为中国武器装备产业链核心企业提供 了更大的成长空间，同时，国际市场采购价格高于国内，提升了国内配 ...

冬去春来—— 国防军工板块24A&25Q1业绩综述 长江证券研究所军工研究小组 2025-05-06 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 分析师 王贺嘉 分析师 王清 分析师 杨继虎 分析师 张晨晨 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520110004 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524050001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490525040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524080007 SFC执业证书编号：BUX462 联系人 张飞 联系人 李麟君 %% %% %% %% | 赛道 | 细分领域 | | | | | 标的 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 中航沈飞 | 中航西飞 | | | | | | | | 下游 | 主机厂 | 中直股份 | 中无人机 | | | | | | | | | | 航天彩虹 | 洪都航空 | | | | | | | | | | 中航重机 | 中航高科 ...

从最新持仓动向来看，choice数据显示， 社保基金一季度新进入215家个股的前十大流通股东名单 。其中， 中通客车新增社保基金持股家 数最多，达到3家 。 此外，蓝思科技、内蒙一机、安靠智电、学大教育、焦点科技、海兴电力、振华股份、绝味食品、珠江啤酒、北大 荒、安达智能、*ST松发、合合信息、奥士康和利民股份新增社保基金持股家数均达到2家。具体情况如下图： | 名称 | 持股机构家数 | 持股数量 | 持股市值 | 东财行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万股) | (亿元) | | | 中通客车 | 3 | 1212. 33 | 1. 37 | 商用车 | | 蓝思科技 | 2 | 4296. 86 | 10. 88 | 电子设备制造 | | 内蒙一机 | 2 | 2750. 53 | 2. 95 | 地面装备 | | 安靠智电 | 2 | 831. 39 | 2. 51 | 电线电缆 | | 学大教育 | 2 | 504. 15 | 2. 39 | 教育信息化服务 | | 焦点科技 | 2 | 534. 28 | 2. 30 | 电子商务B2B | | ...