F35A 版本单价约为 7,000 多万美元，远低于 F22 的 1.5 亿美元，更低 的价格是 F35 能够获得大规模订单的关键因素之一。 关注 2026 年，预计在 2025 年印巴冲突后，中国战机在国际军贸市场 的声誉将得到提升，届时歼 35 的外贸订单有望取得更明确的进展。 中航沈飞 20260226 摘要 F22 战机全生命周期仅生产 195 架，而 F35 战机目前订单已达约 3,500 架，是 F22 的 18 倍，且仍在生产中，显示出显著的需求差异， 预示着市场对不同定位五代机的接受程度不同。 F35 通过共享 F22 的核心技术成果，显著缩短了研发周期并降低了成本， 同时，多国联合出资的模式也分散了研发经费压力，这为后续的量产和 订单增长奠定了基础。 F22 因价格高昂和客户单一（仅服务于美国空军），限制了其市场规模。 F35 则通过推出 A、B、C 三个版本，覆盖不同军种需求，并积极拓展国 际市场，成功扩大了客户范围。 F35 在供应链管理和制造效率上显著优于 F22，通过技术共用和供应链 复用，降低了单机生产工时和成本，提高了交付及时性，从而支撑了更 大的订单规模。 对标美国经验，歼 3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [1] Core Insights - The year 2026 marks the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" implementation, characterized by frequent mergers and acquisitions among state-owned enterprises and stronger stock performance of private enterprises compared to state-owned ones [4][11] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has a unique aspect with the 2027 centenary of the military, potentially leading to order front-loading and structural changes [4][24] - The overall industry is returning to a value investment focus, prioritizing orders and performance, with upstream sectors expected to outperform downstream [4][23] Summary by Sections Section 1: Characteristics of the First Year of the Industry Cycle and "14th Five-Year Plan" Outlook - The first year of the five-year plan typically sees strong industry development certainty but limited stock price surprises due to prior expectations [8] - Historical data shows significant fluctuations in index performance, with the first year often experiencing a decline in EPS growth [7][9] Section 2: Outlook for Subsequent Supply and Demand - Demand is expected to show marginal improvement, while supply-side capacity is significantly increasing, indicating potential marginal shocks in certain industry segments [22] - The industry is expected to experience a recovery in sectors that underperformed during the latter half of the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as aerospace and aviation engine sectors [4][24] Section 3: Key Tracks and Structural Focus - Recommended focus areas include intelligent grouping, aerospace industry (including both aviation and commercial aerospace), and carrier-based aircraft [4][23] - Structural focus should be on aviation engines and the demand expansion and industrialization of PEEK materials [4][35]

Core Insights - The Fujian aircraft carrier has successfully conducted its first electromagnetic catapult launches and landings with the J-15T, J-35, and KJ-600 aircraft, showcasing advancements in naval aviation technology [1] Group 1 - The electromagnetic catapult system is a significant technological development in aircraft launch capabilities, allowing for more efficient and powerful launches compared to traditional steam catapults [1] - The successful training exercises mark a critical milestone in the operational readiness of the Fujian carrier and its associated aircraft [1] - The integration of advanced aircraft like the J-35 and KJ-600 indicates a strategic enhancement in the carrier's combat capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the grand military parade held on September 3rd to commemorate the 80th anniversary of China's victory in the Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, highlighting China's military modernization and commitment to peace and justice [2][3]. Summary by Sections Military Display - The parade featured over 10,000 troops, hundreds of ground equipment, and more than a hundred aircraft, showcasing a new layout of military strength [4]. - The aerial display included 9 helicopters forming the number "80" and banners proclaiming "Justice Prevails," "Peace Prevails," and "People Prevail" [3][11]. - All showcased military equipment was domestically produced, with many models making their public debut [7][10]. Aerial Forces - The air force segment included advanced aircraft such as the Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft, fighter jets, and bombers, demonstrating a comprehensive range of capabilities [10][14]. - Notable aircraft included the Airborne Early Warning 600, J-20A, J-20S, and J-35, which were all presented for the first time [10][11]. - The transport aircraft segment featured the Y-20A and Y-20B, highlighting their long-range strategic delivery capabilities [14]. Ground Forces - The parade included various ground equipment, with 115 Dongfeng military vehicles participating, showcasing their role in modern military operations [15][16]. - The Dongfeng military vehicles have been a regular feature in parades since 1984, indicating their significance in China's military history [16]. Nuclear Capabilities - The Dongfeng-5C intercontinental ballistic missile was displayed, emphasizing China's global strike capabilities and deterrence strategy [20][23]. Observers and Participants - The event was attended by representatives from various sectors, including logistics and technology, who expressed pride in the nation's military advancements and commitment to peace [21][29]. - Notable attendees included leaders from major companies and academic institutions, who emphasized the importance of national security and technological advancement in the context of military strength [31][32].

Group 1 - The military parade showcased all domestically produced active main battle equipment, with many making their debut [1][4][6] - The event marked the first military parade since the comprehensive promotion of Chinese-style modernization and the centenary of the People's Army [1] - The aerial formation included various types of aircraft, demonstrating a modular and systematic grouping that covers the current main battle aircraft types of the military [3][8] Group 2 - The parade featured 80 honor flags from anti-Japanese war model troops, leading the equipment formations in a combat-ready joint grouping [2] - The air force showcased advanced warning and reconnaissance capabilities, as well as long-range strike capabilities [3][8] - The new multi-purpose transport aircraft, equipped with domestically produced engines, demonstrated long-range strategic delivery capabilities [13] Group 3 - Ground equipment included 115 Dongfeng military vehicles, with 89 officially participating in the parade [14][19] - The parade highlighted the "Dongfeng-5C" liquid intercontinental strategic nuclear missile, which has a global strike range [19][23] - The event also featured various ground support units, including anti-drone and information support formations [14][19] Group 4 - Representatives from various industries, including logistics and technology, expressed pride and a sense of responsibility while attending the parade [22][30] - The presence of the network space troops for the first time emphasized the importance of cybersecurity in national defense [31] - The event was attended by notable figures from the tech industry, who highlighted the significance of the showcased military capabilities and the advancements in domestic technology [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements in China's military aviation capabilities, showcased during the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War and World Anti-Fascist War, with a focus on the new aircraft models developed by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) [2]. Group 1: Military Aircraft Showcase - The parade featured 125 military aircraft, including new models such as the KJ-600, J-20A, J-20S, and J-35, marking their public debut [2]. - The aerial formations were organized into a modular and systematic structure, demonstrating the capabilities of the air force across multiple domains, including early warning, strategic deployment, and strike capabilities [2]. Group 2: Specific Aircraft Types - The special mission aircraft team included the Y-9 anti-submarine patrol aircraft, electronic reconnaissance aircraft, and radar jamming aircraft, escorted by J-16 fighters [5]. - The unmanned combat aircraft team showcased various new models, including reconnaissance-strike drones and shipborne unmanned helicopters [6]. - The transport aircraft team consisted of Y-20A and Y-20B, equipped with new domestic engines, highlighting their long-range strategic deployment capabilities [7]. - The bomber team featured H-6N, H-6K, and H-6J bombers, emphasizing their long-range strike and area patrol capabilities [8]. Group 3: Refueling and Fighter Aircraft - The aerial refueling team demonstrated the Y-20A aircraft refueling H-6N, J-16, and J-20, showcasing China's new generation aerial refueling capabilities [10]. - The fighter aircraft team included multiple new stealth fighters, such as J-16D, J-20, J-35A, J-20S, and J-20A, indicating advancements in stealth technology [12]. - The carrier-based aircraft team, featuring J-15DH, J-15DT, J-35, and J-15T, demonstrated significant progress in carrier aviation capabilities [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the display of various military aircraft and equipment by the China Aviation Industry Corporation during the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, showcasing advancements in China's air combat capabilities. Group 1: Airborne Equipment - A total of 125 military aircraft, including the new models such as KJ-600, J-20A, J-20S, and J-35, were showcased for the first time in public [1] - The aerial formations included a variety of combat aircraft, transport planes, and early warning command aircraft, demonstrating a comprehensive representation of the military's air combat capabilities [1] Group 2: Specific Aircraft Types - The air command aircraft formation featured KJ-500A and J-16, along with KJ-600 and J-15T, highlighting the integration of advanced early warning systems [6] - The special aircraft formation included Y-9 anti-submarine patrol aircraft, electronic reconnaissance aircraft, and radar jamming aircraft, escorted by J-16 fighters [7] - The transport aircraft formation consisted of Y-20A and Y-20B, showcasing new domestic engines that enhance range, payload, and speed for strategic deployment [9] Group 3: Refueling and Fighter Aircraft - The aerial refueling formation demonstrated three Y-20A aircraft refueling J-16, J-20, and H-6N bombers, indicating advancements in aerial refueling capabilities [11] - The fighter aircraft formation included multiple new stealth fighters such as J-16D, J-20, J-35A, and J-20S, showcasing the evolution of China's carrier-based aircraft capabilities [12]

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector has seen significant growth, with stocks like Guoke Military rising over 12% and several companies hitting the daily limit up [1] - The National Defense Military ETF (512810) experienced a 3% increase during trading, with a transaction volume exceeding 59 million yuan and a turnover rate of 9.55%, leading the market among similar ETFs [1][2] - The ETF's share price was reduced from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan after a split, making it more accessible for investors [3] Group 2 - Advanced fighter jets like J-10CE and J-35 are expected to be strategic assets for China's military trade, enhancing domestic equipment research and development [3] - The military trade sector is anticipated to benefit from a global arms race and industry recovery, with a focus on military trade, military electronics, and consumable ammunition as key investment themes [3] - The National Defense Military ETF (512810) tracks the CSI Military Index and is designed to provide efficient exposure to the defense sector, combining traditional and new military capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of innovation is deeply embedded in the DNA of China's aviation industry, emphasizing the importance of self-reliance in aircraft design and development [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Development - The Shenyang Aircraft Design Institute, established in 1961, has achieved multiple milestones in China's aviation history, including the first high-altitude, high-speed jet fighter and the first carrier-based fighter [3]. - The institute has undertaken the development of over 40 key aircraft models, including the J-8, J-11, J-15, J-35, and various drones, marking the evolution from second-generation to fourth-generation fighters [3][7]. Group 2: Innovation and Challenges - The successful landing of the J-15 on the aircraft carrier Liaoning was achieved in less than two months after its commissioning, showcasing the team's rigorous preparation and innovative spirit [5]. - The institute has established various specialized laboratories and strengthened collaborations with external industry labs and educational institutions to enhance technological capabilities [5][7]. Group 3: Legacy and Future - The Shenyang Aircraft Design Institute honors the legacy of its heroes, such as the late Luo Yang, by forming the "Luo Yang Youth Commando Team" to inspire dedication and innovation among younger generations [8]. - The upcoming 15th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition will feature the J-35A, highlighting the institute's commitment to high-performance aircraft design and the development of a skilled workforce [8][9]. Group 4: Design Philosophy - The design philosophy emphasizes a craftsman spirit, focusing on perfection and attention to detail in every aspect of aircraft design [9]. - Continuous dedication to innovation is seen as essential for the future success of the aviation industry in China [9].

Economic Overview - China's economic share of US GDP has decreased from nearly 80% to over 60%, indicating challenges in surpassing the US in total economic size [1] - The US has maintained an average economic growth rate of over 2% in recent years, with GDP increasing from $20 trillion in 2018 to $27.72 trillion in 2023 [3] - Factors such as the US-China trade war and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes have negatively impacted China's economy, leading to a depreciation of the RMB and widening the nominal GDP gap with the US [5] Military Comparison - The Chinese military has completed reforms and now possesses several advanced heavy and medium combined brigades, while the US Army has fewer combined units due to a focus on counterinsurgency warfare [7] - In naval capabilities, while the US Navy has an advantage in nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, China's naval advancements, such as the Fujian aircraft carrier with electromagnetic catapults, show significant progress [9][10] - China's naval fleet is expanding rapidly, with the potential to surpass the US in numbers, as the US's Nimitz-class carriers approach retirement [12] - In the air force sector, China's J-20 is in large-scale production, while the US's F-22 production has ceased, indicating a potential shift in air superiority [12]