Core Viewpoint - The trade tensions between China and Canada have escalated, particularly regarding Canadian canola seed imports, with China imposing a 75.8% deposit on all Canadian companies due to identified dumping practices [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Measures - China's Ministry of Commerce announced on August 12 that it would impose a 75.8% deposit on Canadian canola seed imports, effective from August 14, citing dumping practices that harm the domestic canola industry [1]. - This is not the first action taken by China against Canada; in March, China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, following Canada's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products [3]. - On the same day as the canola seed announcement, China initiated anti-dumping investigations on Canadian pea starch and identified dumping in brominated butyl rubber, also imposing deposits [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The timing of the deposit is critical as it coincides with the Canadian canola harvest season, leading to a significant drop in prices, nearly 30%, and creating pressure on Canadian farmers who rely heavily on the Chinese market [5]. - Canada exports nearly 5 billion CAD (approximately 26 billion RMB) of canola to China annually, indicating the substantial economic stakes involved [5]. - The Canadian Canola Council stated that the deposit effectively closes the door to the Chinese market for Canadian canola [6]. Group 3: Diplomatic Relations - The Chinese government has previously indicated that it would reconsider its measures if Canada lifted unreasonable tariffs on Chinese products, suggesting that diplomatic solutions are still possible [6]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney has expressed a desire for constructive dialogue with China, but has not provided specific plans to support affected farmers, raising questions about the sincerity of these efforts [3][8]. - The Canadian government is under pressure from farmers and provincial leaders to address the trade issues, especially after failing to gain favor with the U.S. while simultaneously facing challenges from China [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. announced a 90-day suspension of the 24% tariffs on Chinese goods while maintaining the existing 10% tariffs, indicating a desire to ease tensions without relinquishing leverage in negotiations [1][3] - Following the U.S. announcement, China quickly retaliated by launching an anti-dumping investigation against Canadian and Japanese imports of halogenated butyl rubber, which had been under investigation since September 2024 [3][5] - The Chinese authorities determined that the imports from Canada and Japan were indeed dumping and causing substantial harm to domestic industries, leading to the imposition of a deposit requirement for these imports starting August 14 [5][7] Group 2 - The swift response from China demonstrates adherence to anti-dumping regulations and WTO rules, targeting U.S. allies to signal that countries supporting U.S. actions against China will face consequences [7] - Japan's cooperation with the U.S. on tariff negotiations and its efforts to assist in resolving issues related to rare earth materials have been noted, indicating a strategic alignment with U.S. interests [5][7] - Canada's previous actions, including imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products, have led to its current predicament, highlighting the interconnectedness of international trade policies and retaliatory measures [5][7]

Group 1 - The extension of the US-China tariff truce for 90 days has led to immediate retaliatory measures from China against Canada and Japan [1][3] - China imposed a temporary anti-dumping deposit of 75.8% on Canadian canola seeds, following a year-long investigation that concluded Canada engaged in dumping practices [1][3] - The canola seed industry in Canada, which exports approximately CAD 5 billion annually to China, is significantly impacted by this high deposit, leading to a drop in canola prices [3][5] Group 2 - China also targeted Japan, imposing anti-dumping measures on halogenated butyl rubber, with Canadian companies facing a maximum deposit of 40.5% and Japanese companies 30.1% [3][5] - Japan's recent cooperation with the US to limit China's strategic advantages, including reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths and restricting semiconductor exports, has contributed to its negative standing in China [3][5] - The Chinese government has indicated that countries aligning with the US against China will face consequences, as seen in the recent actions against Canada and Japan [5][8] Group 3 - In addition to Canada and Japan, China has taken retaliatory measures against the EU, specifically targeting two Lithuanian banks due to sanctions imposed by the EU on Chinese financial institutions [5][6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's actions against the EU are framed as a response to perceived violations of international law and damage to Chinese enterprises [6][8] - China's series of retaliatory measures signal a clear message that while negotiations with the US may continue, other nations should reconsider their alignment with US policies that harm Chinese interests [8]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around China's imposition of a 100% tariff on Canadian canola meal, which is seen as a retaliatory measure against Canada's recent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products [1][3][5] - Canada is the largest supplier of canola to China, with exports valued at CAD 4.9 billion in 2024, accounting for 67% of its canola exports, making this a critical economic issue for Canada [1][5] - The 100% tariff and a 75.8% temporary anti-dumping tax effectively block Canadian canola from the Chinese market, while China can source canola from other countries like Australia and Russia [1][7] Group 2 - Canada's actions are viewed as aligning with U.S. strategies, which has led to accusations of trade protectionism and discrimination from China, citing violations of WTO rules [3][5] - The political implications of the tariff are significant, as it exacerbates tensions between the Canadian federal government and its western provinces, which are heavily reliant on canola farming [7][9] - China's strong response is framed as a warning to other nations, particularly the U.S. and EU, indicating that those who engage in trade wars will face consequences [7][9]

Group 1 - As of August 15, 2025, Qingdao Kingway's stock price is reported at 8.74 yuan, down 1.80% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on the same day was 621 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 10.36% [1] - Qingdao Kingway's main business includes the research, production, and sales of candles, cosmetics, and related chemical products, covering areas such as household light industry and cross-border trade [1] Group 2 - On August 14, the European Commission announced a preliminary anti-dumping ruling against candles originating from China, with Qingdao Kingway facing a temporary anti-dumping tax rate of 57.5% [1] - The investigation pertains to export data from October 2023 to September 2024, which may impact the company's overseas business [1] Group 3 - On August 15, the net outflow of main funds was 46.32 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 58.81 million yuan over the past five days [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the report suggests a bullish approach. Internationally, good weather in most areas of Canadian rapeseed crops boosts the prospects of a bumper harvest, while China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect its exports and put pressure on prices. Domestically, it's the off - season for oil consumption, with ample vegetable oil supply. However, the low operating rate of oil mills reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply pressure. The anti - dumping measures further weaken long - term supply. The market fluctuates greatly due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling [7][8]. - For rapeseed meal, the report recommends a bullish mindset and suggests paying attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The US 2025/26 soybean harvest area is expected to decrease, reducing production and ending stocks. Domestically, the high operating rate of oil mills and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the rapeseed meal market. But less rapeseed arrives in the near - term, and it's the peak season for aquaculture, increasing the demand for rapeseed meal. The anti - dumping measures also weaken long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Bullish participation [7] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 9757 yuan/ton, an increase of 196 yuan/ton from the previous week. The total open interest was 296,496 lots, an increase of 116,426 lots from last week [8][16]. - Market Outlook: International factors include good weather in Canada and China's anti - dumping measures. Domestically, it's the off - season for oil consumption, but low mill operating rates, fewer rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures ease supply pressure. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping ruling [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Bullish thinking, pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [10] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2546 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. The total open interest was 448,610 lots, an increase of 12,773 lots from the previous week [11][16]. - Market Outlook: The US soybean harvest area decrease affects the market. Domestically, high mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory suppress the market, but less near - term rapeseed arrival, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures support it. However, the substitution of soybean meal weakens demand. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping ruling [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Open Interest**: Rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures both rose first and then fell. Rapeseed oil's total open interest increased by 116,426 lots to 296,496 lots, and rapeseed meal's increased by 12,773 lots to 448,610 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: For rapeseed oil, the top 20 net positions changed from net long (+21,321) to net short (-2,284). For rapeseed meal, it changed from net long (+22,737) to net short (-17,470) [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Rapeseed oil had 3,487 registered warehouse receipts, and rapeseed meal had 9,821 [27][28]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: In Jiangsu, the rapeseed oil spot price was 9,870 yuan/ton, and the basis was +113 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, the rapeseed meal price was 2,590 yuan/ton, and the basis was +44 yuan/ton [37][43]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +165 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +59 yuan/ton, also at a medium level [49]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for the 01 contract was 3.83, and the average spot price ratio was 3.81 [52]. - **Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,223 yuan/ton, with relative volatility this week. The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 297 yuan/ton, narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 591 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 490 yuan/ton as of Thursday [62][68]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of August 8, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 200,000 tons, 570,000 tons, and 430,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Supply - Import Pressing Profit**: As of August 14, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was +863 yuan/ton [78]. - **Supply - Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 32nd week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 62,000 tons, with an operating rate of 15.17% [82]. - **Supply - Monthly Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [86]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 773,000 tons, a decrease of 1.70% from last week. In June 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.67% and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [91]. - **Demand - Consumption and Production of Edible Vegetable Oil**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 4.769 million tons, and the catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan [95]. - **Demand - Weekly Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 9.53% from last week [99]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Weekly Inventory**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 32.61% from last week [103]. - **Supply - Import Volume**: In June 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.17% and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [107]. - **Demand - Monthly Feed Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons [111]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options fluctuated up and down. As of August 15, the implied volatility was 24.73%, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [116].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that canola oil futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 9715.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.99% [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has preliminarily determined that imported canola seeds from Canada are subject to dumping, imposing a 75.8% deposit on Canadian companies, which introduces uncertainty in the trade policy between China and Canada [2] - Domestic canola oil inventory is at a seasonally high level, and changes in trade policies may lead traders to actively import canola oil from Russia and Dubai, potentially supplementing the supply from Canada [2] Group 2 - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the canola oil market is showing a downward trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the recent suspension of a 24% tariff between China and the US [3] - The increase in domestic canola oil prices has further strengthened the vegetable oil sector, while the overall inventory of major oils, including soybean and palm oil, is on the rise [3] - The market is expected to wait for a new buying point after adjustments, with a long-term bullish outlook on oil fats [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall USDA August supply - demand report is bullish, but domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation suppresses the rapeseed meal market. However, factors such as low near - month rapeseed arrivals, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market. Despite the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, the market should be treated with a bullish mindset due to increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, international factors like rainfall in Canada and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed put pressure on prices, while domestic factors such as low oil mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures reduce supply pressure. The market should be mainly participated in with a bullish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10,064 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,723 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 650.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 31.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,136 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 228 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 112 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 282,665 lots, up 165,186 lots; rapeseed meal is 178,669 lots, down 27,971 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 14,214 lots, down 2,606 lots; rapeseed meal is 17,393 lots, up 15,262 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 0, down 3,487; rapeseed meal is 0, down 9,821 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,660 yuan/ton; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,840 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,090 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9,825 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [2]. - Import cost price of rapeseed: 4,656.83 yuan/ton, down 194.33 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: 3.73, up 0.15 [2]. - Basis of main contracts: Rapeseed oil is - 42 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan; rapeseed meal is - 63 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 15 million tons, up 5 million tons [2]. - Weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed: 16.84%, up 0.32 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 455 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 11 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi: 54.92 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons [2]. - Weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil: 3.47 million tons, up 1.77 million tons; rapeseed meal is 2.72 million tons, down 0.15 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2,937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering: 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.72 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.71 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal is 23.19%, up 2.17 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 13.9%, up 2.13 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal is 18.19%, up 0.9 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 12.89%, up 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 12, ICE rapeseed futures tumbled 4.5% after China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, but prices rebounded from the intraday low [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed changes in US soybean forecasts for the 2025/26 season, with lower harvest area and slightly higher yield, and lower production and ending stocks [2].

Core Viewpoints - The recent surge in canola oil futures, with a peak at 10,333.00 yuan and a current price of 10,085.00 yuan, indicates a strong market sentiment [1] - The preliminary anti-dumping investigation results on Canadian canola seeds will impose a 75.8% deposit on imports, significantly reducing profit margins and potentially decreasing import volumes [1] - The domestic canola oil market is expected to experience a strong upward trend due to limited alternative sources and high consumption during the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Longjiang Futures predicts that canola oil contracts for September and January will continue to show strong fluctuations in the short term [1] - The anti-dumping measures are likely to hinder the import of Canadian canola seeds post-August 14, leading to a further decline in import volumes already reduced year-on-year [1] - The current high inventory levels of domestic canola oil may accelerate depletion, positively impacting spot prices and basis [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Risks - The uncertainty surrounding the Canada-China trade relationship could lead to cautious purchasing behavior among domestic crushing plants, affecting future canola seed imports [2] - The high deposit rates may deter import traders, creating a risk of reduced canola seed supply in the domestic market [2] - The potential for increased imports from Australia and Russia may also influence canola oil prices in the future [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has preliminarily determined that imported canola seeds from Canada are being dumped, leading to the implementation of a temporary anti-dumping measure with a deposit rate of 75% [1][3]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce decided to impose a temporary anti-dumping measure on imported canola seeds from Canada, requiring a deposit of 75.8% from all Canadian companies [3]. - This measure is aimed at protecting the domestic canola industry from the impact of low-priced dumped products, as there is a causal relationship between dumping and substantial damage to the domestic industry [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Reactions - The latest anti-dumping measure follows China's imposition of a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and oilseed meal since March, in response to Canada's announcement of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products [3]. - Analysts suggest that this move will increase pressure on the Canadian government to address trade frictions with China [4]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has also initiated anti-dumping investigations on Canadian pea starch and has identified dumping in brominated butyl rubber, leading to further deposit requirements [4].