Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for gold-related stocks experienced a significant decline, with multiple factors contributing to the sell-off in precious metals, including a strong dollar and uncertainty in investor positions due to various geopolitical and economic developments [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold concept stocks in the A-share market fell sharply, with Hunan Silver nearing the daily limit down and Silver Resources dropping over 8% [1]. - Other notable declines included Xiaocheng Technology, Western Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, each falling over 7%, while several others dropped more than 6% [1]. - The sell-off was triggered by a substantial drop in precious metal prices, with spot gold plummeting nearly $280, marking the largest single-day decline in 12 years, and spot silver falling over 8% to below $48, the largest drop since February 2021 [1]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - Multiple factors contributed to the decline in precious metals, including positive developments in international trade negotiations, a strengthening dollar, technical overbought conditions, and uncertainties stemming from the U.S. government shutdown and the end of seasonal buying in India [1].

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 贵金属日评20251022: 美元指数走强使贵金属价格承压 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-15 | 收盘价 | 970. 32 | 23. 74 | 33.72 | 994. 06 | 960. 34 | | | | | 成父童 | 728228.00 | 496445.00 | 420246.00 | -231, 783.00 | 76, 199.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 205110.00 | 207916.00 | 230686.00 | -2,806.00 | -25,576.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 84606.00 | 86565. 00 | 75099.0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-22 贵⾦属短线⼤跌，⾏情或进⼊阶段性调 整期 周⼆国内休市后，海外⻩⾦、⽩银⼤幅下跌，伦敦⾦现⽇内跌幅最⾼超 3%，伦敦银现⽇内跌幅最⾼超6%。 我们此前提⽰，贵⾦属波动率显著上 升，上涨⾏情或进⼊尾部阶段，过热⻛险下调整随时可能发⽣，可参考M A5进⾏阶段性⽌盈，⾏情或进⼊阶段性调整期，后续重点关注美联储货币 政策、⼈事变动、地缘及贸易变动。 重点资讯： 1）在日本众议院首相指名选举第一轮投票中，自民党总裁高市早苗 获得过半票数，当选日本第104任首相，成为日本历史上第一位女首 相。她现年64岁，是日本右翼政客代表人物之一，主张实施扩张性财 政政策，并提高防卫开支。新当选的日本首相高市早苗内阁名单公 布，包括内阁官房长官木原稔、财务大臣片山皋月、防卫大臣小泉进 次郎、总务大臣林芳正、外务大臣茂木敏充等人。 2）欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩称，欧洲央行决心确保通胀率在中期 内稳定在2%的目标水平，银行的美元融资更容易出现流动性危机，从 而在压力情境下增加脆弱性。 价格逻辑： 周二国内休市后，海外黄金、白银大幅下跌，伦敦 ...

Group 1 - International gold and silver prices have experienced a significant drop, with Shanghai gold and silver futures opening down over 5%, and London spot gold hitting a low of $4002 per ounce [1] - The recent decline in precious metal prices follows a period of rapid increases, with gold reaching a peak of $4086 per ounce and silver dropping below $50 per ounce, indicating a correction after a sustained overbought condition [1] - Despite the short-term drop, analysts believe that the expectations of monetary easing remain intact, suggesting that this is not a trend reversal for precious metals [1] Group 2 - HSBC remains optimistic about gold, projecting that its upward momentum could last until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations of further monetary easing, with a target price of $5000 [2] - Huaxin Fund has noted that short-term trading in gold is overheated, with volatility indicators reaching high levels, suggesting potential risks in the market [2] - Analysts indicate that while central bank purchases and growing investment demand will support long-term price increases for precious metals, investors should remain cautious of short-term adjustments due to trading and event-driven shocks [2]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 22 日 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2512 | 昨日收盘价 994.06 | 日涨幅 2.45% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 945.44 | 夜盘涨幅 -4.64% | | | 黄金T+D | 986.89 | 1.35% | 944.47 | -4.55% | | | Comex黄金2512 | 4138.50 | -5.39% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2512 | 11805 | 0.51% | 11285.00 | -4.86% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 11759 | -0.16% | 11261 | -4.86% | | | Comex白银2512 | 48.160 | -6.30% | - | - ...

贵金属日报 2025-10-22 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金跌 4.64 %，报 945.44 元/克，沪银跌 4.86 %，报 11285.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4137.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 48.05 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 3.98%，美元指数报 98.97 ； 受到短期价格上涨斜率较高以及海外风险事件缓和的影响，贵金属价格昨日出现较大幅度下 跌，但从宏观驱动以及海外现货市场可能的走向来看，金银价格后续仍具备上涨空间，但需要 一定盘整时间。 最新数据显示，截至早盘，伦敦白银一月期隐含现货租赁利率仍达到 16.39%，较昨日的 16.35% 小幅上升。白银 EFP 期转现为 0.9 美元/盎司，较日前的 1.25 美元/盎司有所回落，但仍处于 近年同期的最高水平。COMEX 白银库存继续去化，10 月 21 日下降 81.96 吨至 15671 吨。海外 现货紧俏的逻辑从数据上来看依然具备。 【策略观点】 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices, with gold dropping over 6% and silver over 8%, is seen as a market correction rather than the end of a bull market, driven by profit-taking and external factors like a stronger dollar and reduced market liquidity during India's festival season [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The significant drop in gold and silver prices is attributed to profit-taking after a period of rapid price increases, with many investors looking to secure profits [3]. - The strengthening of the US dollar has reduced the attractiveness of precious metals, as they typically move inversely to the dollar [3]. - The market liquidity has decreased due to India's Diwali festival, which has contributed to amplified price volatility [3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical patterns indicate that after significant price surges in gold, corrections often occur, but as long as underlying supportive factors remain, prices are likely to recover [4]. - Key supportive factors include ongoing gold purchases by central banks, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and persistent concerns regarding the creditworthiness of the US economy [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the current correction is a healthy market adjustment, and as long as long-term bullish factors remain intact, gold and silver are expected to return to an upward trajectory [5].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.47%, the S&P 500 remaining flat, and the Nasdaq declining by 0.16%. The Dow reached a new all-time high [1] - Major tech stocks showed varied performance, with Amazon rising over 2%, while Nvidia, Oracle, and Google fell more than 2% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.97%, with most popular Chinese stocks declining, including Alibaba down nearly 4% and JD down nearly 3% [1] Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn on October 21, with gold and silver facing rare drops. Gold saw its largest daily decline in twelve years, dropping to a low of $4,082, a 6.3% decrease [1][3] - Silver also dropped sharply, with spot silver falling below $47.90, marking an 8.7% intraday decline, the largest since February 2021 [3] Factors Influencing Precious Metals - Multiple factors contributed to the end of the previous upward trend in precious metals, including changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation, which reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5] - A stronger U.S. dollar, technical indicators showing overbought conditions, and a lack of transparency in investor positions also pressured precious metal prices [5] - The end of the seasonal gold buying in India further exacerbated market sell-off pressures [5] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts have differing views on the recent precious metals crash and future trends. Some warn that speculative long positions may have accumulated significantly, making the gold and silver markets more susceptible to corrections [5] - Despite signs of overbought conditions, some analysts noted that demand for gold remains strong, with a cumulative increase of over 65% since 2025 [5] - Bloomberg strategists indicated that while ETF gold holdings have not reached historical peaks, market momentum typically fades, and if delayed economic data shows stronger-than-expected U.S. performance, gold may face further declines [6]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - International gold and silver prices continue to decline, with spot gold dropping below $4100 per ounce, currently reported at $4141.03 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 5.02% [1][2][4] - Spot silver has decreased by 6.81%, currently priced at $48.945 per ounce [1][3][6] - COMEX gold is down 5.01%, trading at $4141.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver has fallen nearly 7%, currently at $47.845 per ounce [3][4] Group 2: Mining Stocks Performance - Gold and silver mining stocks are also experiencing declines, with Hecla Mining and First Majestic Silver both dropping nearly 10%, and Pan American Silver down over 9% [6] Group 3: Broader Market Context - The U.S. stock market shows mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.68% at 47025.02 points, while the Nasdaq is down 0.16% at 22954.14 points, and the S&P 500 is slightly up by 0.08% at 6740.32 points [7]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn after a period of record highs, with gold and silver facing their largest daily declines in years, driven by multiple factors including a strong dollar and reduced safe-haven demand [1][4][7]. Price Movements - Gold prices fell approximately 6.3% to around $4082, marking the largest daily drop since April 2013, while New York futures dropped to $4093, down 6.1% [1]. - Silver prices dropped nearly 8.7% to below $47.90, the largest intraday decline since February 2021, with New York futures falling to $47.12, down about 8.3% [4]. Market Pressures - The decline in precious metals was influenced by expectations of easing trade tensions, a strengthening dollar, overbought technical indicators, and opaque investor positions, which collectively ended the previous upward trend [7]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has resulted in a lack of critical positioning data, increasing uncertainty in the market [8]. Speculative Positions - Analysts noted that speculative long positions in gold and silver may have accumulated significantly, making them more susceptible to corrections [9]. - The absence of weekly positioning reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) due to the government shutdown has allowed speculators to build large one-sided positions [8][9]. Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe that despite the sharp declines, the fundamental factors supporting precious metals remain intact, suggesting potential buying interest may limit further corrections [7][10]. - There is a divergence in analyst opinions, with some indicating that the recent price drop may not be detrimental, while others caution that momentum could eventually fade, leading to increased selling pressure if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations [10]. Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market, which has surged nearly 80% this year, is also experiencing significant declines, influenced by macroeconomic factors and historical market tightness [11]. - Recent data indicated the largest single-day outflow of silver from warehouses associated with the Shanghai Futures Exchange since February, alongside a decrease in New York inventories [12].