山海：切勿跟风黄金市场，保持自己的专属节奏！ 现在刷遍网络，大家都看到了，贵金属这轮的上涨已经是资本市场炙手可热的话题，不管是从事这个行业的人还是不是从事这个行业的人，茶余饭后都在讨 论这波黄金，白银，铂金，钯金到底能为什么能涨，到底能涨到哪里，还能不能参入其中。山海在这里需要给大家提个醒，虽然现在市场很热，看似方向明 确，但却是上涨的尾巴，风险大于利润，山海认为这个时间周期黄金，白银将出现不可控的暴涨，暴跌空间，不仅仅能涨，下跌也可能随时走出来，所以， 现在这样的状态，山海宁可多保持观望，而不是激进疯狂的追随市场。 本周市场的基本看法和交易原则保持不变，基本看法是看涨，交易原则还是等待每天的调整做多，只要大方向不变，交易原则就不变，即使它每天都刷新高 点，但没有回落到我们认为的关键点，交易是宁错过不做错，所以，本周更多的建议是多观察，少操作。就目前市场热度来看，上周的连续大涨，每天刷新 高点，但今天早盘开盘，出现了暴涨空间，可看出市场已经出现了疲软的状态，那么，本周有可能会出现上周的回吐空间，上周起涨点在4336，本周如果跌 倒4336后，市场就由极强转为高位震荡，到时候市场相对回归正常，就可以做技术面的涨 ...

来源：赛博AI实验室 本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 现货黄金于12月29日亚洲交易时段突现跳水，盘中跌破4500美元/盎司关键心理关口，日内跌幅达 0.71%，而白银更从涨近6%转为暴跌近5%，引发市场对贵金属短期见顶的担忧。 一、价格异动核心原因 地缘风险降温：特朗普称俄乌冲突"接近达成协议"，削弱避险情绪，触发多头抛售。 流动性不足与获利了结：瑞银警告当前涨势受流动性短缺推动，存在快速回落风险；圣诞假期前夕部分 投资者选择高位套现。 技术面破位信号：4500美元为多空分水岭，跌破后触发程序化卖盘，短线支撑下移至4470-4480美元区 间。 二、市场反应与观点分歧 看多逻辑未改： 长期支撑因素仍在：美联储2026年降息预期（概率65.3%）、全球央行购金（前三季度净购902吨）、 美元信用体系重构。 机构目标价高企：高盛看4900美元，摩根大通看5055美元，认为回调是"倒车接人"。 谨慎派警示风险： 技术指标超买：RSI达74-80，花旗预警短期或回调至4300-4400美元。 历史教训：10月金价两度触及4380美元后闪崩（单日暴跌6.3%），洪灏等投资人在4500美元主动离 场。 国内金饰价突 ...

| 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292 2025年12月29日 | | | | | 叶偏古 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 12月26日 | 12月25日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | | 1016.30 | 1008.76 | 7.54 | 0.75% | 元/牙 | | AG2602合约 | | 18319 | 17397 | 922 | 5.30% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | | 686 de | 657.65 | 29.30 | 4.46% | | | PD2606合约 | | 529.05 | 578.45 | -49.40 | -8.54% | 元/克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 12月26日 | 12月24日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | | 4562.00 | 4 ...

| W | | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 76.454 | | 昨结 | 79.329 | | 开盘 | | 79.256 | | -2.875 | -3.62% | 总量(kg) | 0.00 | | 现主 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 83.971 | 持 包 | | 0 タト | 물 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 75.073 | 指 ਿ | | 0 B | 醫 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 围K | 月K | | 車 名 | 0 | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:- | | 盘口 | | | 83.971 | | | | 5.85% | 荧1 | 76.510 | 0 | | | | | | | 331 | 76.460 | 0 | | | | | | | | 09:42 76.449 | 0 | | | | | | | | 09:42 76.454 | 0 | | | | | | | 0.00% 0 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced a significant drop after reaching an all-time high of $84 per ounce, with a decline of 5% observed in trading [1] - The recent surge in precious metal prices is attributed to central bank purchases, inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.8%, marking the largest weekly decline since June, which typically benefits gold and silver prices [2] Group 2 - The silver market is experiencing a structural supply-demand imbalance, leading to a rush for physical silver, with buyers willing to pay a premium of up to 7% for immediate delivery [2] - Silver's performance has outpaced gold due to its smaller market size and tighter inventory, with significant supply shortages reported in regions like China [2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for silver is nearing 80, indicating that the recent price increase may be excessive [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has surpassed that of oil for the first time in 45 years, driven by strong demand for the precious metal and an oversupply of oil leading to lower fuel prices [3]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have reached a record high of $76.486 per ounce, significantly higher than the $56.74 per barrel price of U.S. crude oil [3]. - Demand for silver is robust from both investors and industrial buyers, particularly in sectors like solar energy, where nearly 30% of annual silver production is consumed [4]. - The competition for silver is intensifying as industrial buyers, including those in the solar panel industry, compete with investors who are shifting from gold to more affordable silver [4]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The surge in gold prices has led to increased silver imports in countries like India, where silver is favored by savers [5]. - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also seeing a shift, with the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, priced at $71.12 per share, compared to the SPDR Gold Trust at $416.74 per share [5]. - The supply of silver is constrained, as it is primarily a byproduct of mining other metals, and the global pure silver reserves are nearly depleted [5]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Market Sentiment - Silver bulls argue that the gold-silver ratio is around 60, suggesting potential for silver prices to rise significantly [6]. - Conversely, some analysts predict a decline in precious metal prices, forecasting silver to drop to around $42 per ounce by the end of next year [7]. - The oil market is also under pressure, with expectations of a 21% drop in oil prices by 2025, which could further impact the silver market if the price ratio reverses [8].

Group 1 - The current demand for silver from investors and the industrial sector is extremely high, with both physical and financial assets being accumulated for wealth storage and as a hedge against risks associated with the US dollar and other currencies [3][4] - In the real economy, the demand for silver is robust, particularly from jewelry manufacturers, medical device producers, electric vehicle manufacturers, data center construction companies, and notably, solar panel manufacturers [3][4] - Citigroup analysts estimate that the solar industry consumes nearly 30% of the annual silver production from mining and recycling [3][4] Group 2 - There is little possibility of significant new silver supply entering the market, as global "pure silver" deposits are nearly exhausted, with most silver now being produced as a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, gold, and zinc [3][4] - John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, indicates that changes in silver supply are often driven by the demand for other metals rather than silver itself [3][4] - There are warnings that precious metal prices are at a "cliff edge," with accumulating risks of a price correction [3][4]

Group 1 - The current demand for silver from both investors and the industrial sector is extremely high, with silver being accumulated in both physical and financial asset forms for wealth storage and as a hedge against risks associated with the US dollar and other currencies [3] - The jewelry industry, medical device manufacturers, electric vehicle producers, data center construction companies, and especially solar panel manufacturers are major consumers of silver [3] - Citigroup analysts estimate that the solar industry consumes nearly 30% of the annual silver production from mining and recycling [4] Group 2 - There is little possibility of significant new silver production entering the market, as global "pure silver" deposits are nearly exhausted, with most silver now being produced as a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, gold, and zinc [4] - Changes in silver supply are often driven by the demand for other metals rather than silver itself, according to John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management [4] - Some analysts warn that precious metal prices are at a "cliff edge," indicating that the risk of a price correction is accumulating [5]

在美联储降息预期、各国央行加大贵金属储备，以及市场上投资性资金大量涌入的背景之下，2025年包 括黄金、白银在内的贵金属价格有望创出本世纪以来最大年度涨幅。 如果将金、银、铂、钯视为单纯的投资品种，从年内价格变动的情况来看，2025年以来金、银、铂、钯 等贵金属的价格涨幅远超同期铜、铝等基本金属的价格涨幅，也明显超过同期美股市场道琼斯工业指 数，以及同期A股市场上证指数涨幅。贵金属已成为2025年以来回报率最高的大类投资品种之一，2025 年俨然成为贵金属的投资"大年"。 白银价格受到工业需求和投资需求的双重影响。中信期货研究所宏观研究组资深研究员朱善颖不久前在 接受证券时报记者采访时指出，从世界白银协会的统计数据来看，白银的工业需求和投资需求之比约 6:4，白银在工业端的应用，集中在电子电器、光伏、钎焊料、摄影、银饰银器等领域，2021年后随着 光伏行业的爆发式增长，光伏用银成为近年来主要的需求增量。 值得注意的是，白银价格今年11月以来涨势有加速趋势，自今年11月以来不到两个月时间里伦敦银现货 价格累计涨幅已经超过60%。朱善颖此前在受访时认为， 白银价格自11月下旬以来大幅上涨，现货紧 张带来的挤仓交易 ...

图片来源：界面图库 智通财经记者 | 韩理 临近年末，金银行情再度卷土重来。 12月27日，伦敦现货黄金突破4500美元/盎司，现货白银突破79.3美元/盎司，两者均创下历史新高。此 前，美联储的"鹰派降息"，日央行加息预期仅短期压制金银价格。两大不确定性消散之后，金银又再次 回归升势。 回顾2025年，黄金白银市场上演了震撼金融史的狂飙行情。黄金在3月、10 月先后历史性突破3000美元 与4000美元两大心理关口。截至发稿，伦敦现货黄金今年涨幅已经达到72.69%，逼近1974年的次高历 史纪录——而彼时布雷顿森林体系解体步入第三年，以美国为主的全球货币当局开始实施货币超发。 白银方面，截至发稿伦敦现货白银年度涨幅达到173.99%，比2010年因美联储量化宽松叠加白银新能源 工业属性挖掘，共同造成83.61%的涨幅，尚且高出一倍。 如无意外，2025年伦敦现货白银年度涨幅将稳稳创下该品种的历史纪录。 "2025年贵金属市场呈现黄金领涨、白银爆发格局。"南华期货分析师夏莹莹分析这一格局形成的原因有 三方面。 首先是投资需求取代央行购金成为主导力量；其次，白银市场出现结构性挤兑，全球库存"拆东墙补西 墙"、 ...