Core Insights - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to a nearly two-week high of 97.74 [1] Group 1 - The increase in the Dollar Index indicates a strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The future trend of the US dollar index is likely to be a downward fluctuation, which may lead to a stable or rising trend in the RMB to USD exchange rate, benefiting China's cross-border capital flow and the internationalization of the RMB [2][11]. Group 1: Historical Analysis of the US Dollar Index - Since 1971, the US dollar index has experienced three long cycles of decline followed by rise, with significant percentage changes in each cycle [2][5]. - The first cycle saw a decline from 120.5 to 82.1 (31.9% drop) and a rise to 164.7 (100.6% increase) [2]. - The second cycle had a decline from 164.7 to 78.3 (52.5% drop) and a rise to 120.9 (54.4% increase) [2]. - The third cycle experienced a decline from 120.9 to 71.3 (41.0% drop) and a rise to 114.1 (60.0% increase) [2]. Group 2: Current Dollar Index Trends - From September 2022 to June 2025, the dollar index is projected to decline from 114.1 to 96.9, a decrease of 15.1% [4]. - The end of the previous Federal Reserve interest rate hike cycle and the beginning of a rate cut cycle in September 2024 suggest a new long-term downward trend for the dollar index [4]. Group 3: Characteristics of Dollar Index Cycles - The highest and lowest points of the dollar index in the three cycles show a gradual downward trend, indicating a weakening of the US economic advantage relative to other developed countries [5]. - The duration of the cycles has been increasing, with the downward phases lasting around 7-8 years and the upward phases extending significantly [5]. - The relationship between the dollar index and interest rates has changed, with recent trends showing a lower correlation between the two [6]. Group 4: Future Predictions for the Dollar Index - The dollar index is expected to continue a downward trend for an extended period, potentially lasting another 6-7 years [10]. - The lowest point of the current downward cycle may fall below the previous cycle's low of 71.3, but it is unlikely to drop below 80 due to issues in other developed economies [10]. - The correlation between the dollar index and US interest rates may remain low, impacting the RMB to USD exchange rate positively [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience against the US dollar, with both onshore and offshore yuan appreciating by 1.82% and 2.45% respectively in the first half of the year, supported by a weaker US dollar index and domestic economic recovery [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The US dollar index fell by 10.79% in the first half of the year, contributing to the appreciation of the yuan [1]. - The central parity rate of the yuan increased by 298 basis points during the same period [1]. - Analysts believe that the weakening of the US dollar and domestic economic policies have provided strong support for the yuan's resilience [1][3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Experts predict a moderate appreciation of the yuan against the dollar in the second half of the year, supported by multiple favorable factors [3]. - The People's Bank of China aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and maintain stability in the yuan's exchange rate [3]. - Domestic growth policies are expected to continue supporting the yuan, with forecasts suggesting the dollar-yuan exchange rate will fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.3 [3][4]. Group 3: External Influences - The ongoing US tariffs on Chinese exports pose challenges, but the impact on the yuan will depend on domestic consumption policies and the progress of US-China trade negotiations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in the ICE Dollar Index and Bloomberg Dollar Index following President Trump's announcement of tariffs on Japan and South Korea, highlighting the impact of geopolitical events on currency movements [1]. Group 1: Currency Index Movements - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 0.31%, closing at 97.479 points, with a trading range of 96.891 to 97.668 points during the day [1]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.49%, reaching 1196.61 points, with a trading range of 1189.62 to 1198.36 points [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The announcement of tariffs on Japan and South Korea by President Trump led to an expansion of gains in both dollar indices, indicating a direct correlation between political decisions and currency valuation [1]. - The initial drop in the indices during the Asia-Pacific trading session was reversed after the tariff news, demonstrating the sensitivity of the markets to U.S. trade policies [1].

Group 1 - As of June 30, 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, an increase of $322 billion from the end of May, marking a rise of 0.98% [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar index and the overall rise in global financial asset prices, influenced by macroeconomic policies and growth prospects of major economies [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by a total of $1,150 billion, achieving a monthly increase for six consecutive months [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index fell by 2.68% in June, with non-US currencies generally appreciating, including a 3.89% rise in the euro and a 2.09% rise in the British pound against the dollar [2] - The rise in global asset prices, including a 1.0% increase in the dollar-denominated global bond index and a 4.96% increase in the S&P 500 index, provided strong support for the foreign exchange reserves [2] Group 3 - China's economy continues to grow steadily, which supports the stability of foreign exchange reserves despite a more complex external environment and significant volatility in international financial markets [3] - As of June 30, 2025, China's gold reserves increased to 7,390 million ounces, up from 7,383 million ounces at the end of May, marking an ongoing trend of gold accumulation by the central bank for eight consecutive months [3] Group 4 - The proportion of gold in China's official international reserve assets is 7.0%, significantly lower than the global average of around 15%, indicating a need for continued accumulation of gold reserves to optimize the international reserve structure [4] - Increasing gold reserves can enhance the credibility of the sovereign currency and create favorable conditions for the internationalization of the renminbi [4]

Core Viewpoint - The sustainability of the private sector's net foreign assets in China is crucial for the country to transition into a mature net creditor nation, especially as the depreciation of the RMB approaches its end [1][7]. Group 1: Changes in Private Sector's Net Foreign Position - China's private sector's net foreign position has shifted from negative to positive, with a net asset of $785 billion as of Q1 2025, marking the first positive net position since 2004 [1][9]. - The private sector's net foreign liabilities increased from $3,778 billion at the end of 2004 to a peak of $23,732 billion by mid-2015, influenced by the long-term appreciation of the RMB [2][3]. - Following the "8·11" exchange rate reform in 2015, the private sector's net foreign liabilities began to decline, reaching $11,130 billion by the end of 2016, a reduction of 53% from the peak [3]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has experienced a general depreciation since early 2022, with the onshore midpoint and spot rates falling by 11.3% and 12.7% respectively by the end of 2024 [5]. - In 2025, the RMB began to appreciate against the backdrop of a weakening USD, with the dollar index dropping by 10.8% in the first half of the year [5][6]. - The exchange rate fluctuations have played a significant role in adjusting the private sector's foreign liabilities, with a negative valuation effect of $5,796 billion due to the RMB's depreciation from Q2 2022 to Q1 2025 [10]. Group 3: Implications for China's Net Creditor Status - The transition to a positive net foreign position is supported by a structural trade surplus, which has been a significant factor in maintaining stable foreign exchange reserves [9][13]. - The reduction in private sector net liabilities is attributed to increased foreign asset holdings and a decrease in foreign liabilities, with a net outflow of $11,235 billion in foreign investments [9]. - If the trend of positive net foreign assets continues, 2025 could mark the year China officially becomes a mature net creditor nation, although potential risks from trade surplus fluctuations and exchange rate volatility remain [13].

外汇局：截至2025年6月末，我国外汇储备规模为33174亿美元，较5月末上升322亿美元 金十数据7月7日讯，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年6月末，我国外汇储备规模为33174亿美 元，较5月末上升322亿美元，升幅为0.98%。2025年6月，受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长前景等因 素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月 外汇储备规模上升。我国经济持续稳健增长，保持良好发展势头，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 美元指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of upcoming tariff decisions by the Trump administration on gold prices, highlighting the potential for increased volatility in the gold market depending on the outcomes of trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions. Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent push for the "Big and Beautiful Act" by Trump has led to a decline in the US dollar index, causing spot gold to experience fluctuations, briefly reaching $3340 but failing to maintain that level [1] - The market is closely monitoring the deadline for tariff exemptions on July 9, with potential new tariffs reaching up to 70% for about 12 countries, effective August 1 [1] - If no agreement is reached by July 9, increased risk aversion may support gold prices; conversely, an agreement or extension could lead to price adjustments [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices tested the 20-day moving average but did not sustain above it, indicating significant resistance from the 5 and 10-day moving averages [2] - The current market structure suggests a bearish trend unless gold prices stabilize above the 5 and 10-day moving averages around $3323-$3335 [2] - The market is at a critical turning point, with pressures from strong non-farm data and easing geopolitical tensions, while Fed policy expectations and trade tensions provide support for gold [2] Group 3: Trading Recommendations - A trading strategy is suggested to short gold at $3312-$3315, with a stop loss at $3320 and a target of $3290-$3280, advising to hold positions if the price breaks below these levels [3]

Macroeconomic Factors - The gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, fiscal policies, tariffs, and monetary policies [1] - A potential 60-day ceasefire agreement in the Gaza conflict may temporarily weaken gold's safe-haven demand, but geopolitical complexities could lead to renewed demand [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary hinted at resuming tariffs on countries that do not reach agreements by August 1, alleviating some market concerns [1] - A large-scale tax cut bill has been passed, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability due to increased debt expectations [1] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are mixed, with potential cuts anticipated in 2025 despite strong economic data [1] - Overall, the gold market presents both opportunities and challenges, requiring investors to closely monitor trade negotiations and Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed a downward trend last Friday, with a high of 97.117 and a low of 96.831, closing at 96.98 [2] - The market experienced limited volatility due to holiday effects, and the focus is on whether the dollar index can break and stabilize above key resistance levels [2] - From a multi-timeframe analysis, the weekly level indicates resistance around 99, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Last Friday, gold prices generally increased, reaching a high of 3344.95 and a low of 3323.47, closing at 3337.02 [4] - The market saw support in the early session before rebounding, but overall volatility remained low due to holiday effects [4] - The weekly support level is at 3311, and a breakdown below this level could signal a medium-term decline [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed an overall upward trend last Friday, with a low of 1.1750 and a high of 1.1787, closing at 1.1772 [7] - The market initially corrected upwards before testing key resistance levels, and while it closed positively, further pressure is anticipated [7] - Long-term bullish sentiment is supported by monthly and weekly analysis, with key support levels at 1.0850 and 1.1450 respectively [7]

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Analysis - The gold and silver markets are currently experiencing fluctuations within their respective bullish trends, with gold not reaching its previous high while silver is approaching the 37.3 high point [2] - The trading range for gold last week was between 3245 and 3365, and it is expected to continue this range unless it breaks out, with potential downward movement to 3120 if it breaks below [4] - For silver, the key points to watch are the breakout of the 37.3 high and the support level at 35.2, indicating a bullish trend but with limited upward momentum [6] Group 2: Domestic Gold and Silver Trading - Domestic gold trading saw a successful bottom-fishing strategy last week, with profits captured, and the outlook remains bullish for this week, focusing on support levels at 772 and 765 for further buying opportunities [5] - In the silver market, the domestic contract (沪银) reached a target of 9000, and the strategy for this week involves either waiting for a pullback to key support levels or holding light short positions [6] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - The international oil market is showing a bullish trend, with support at 64 and a recent high of 67.5, indicating potential for further gains depending on market news [7] - Domestic fuel oil is also maintaining a bullish outlook, with previous positions held at 2850 and potential for upward movement towards 3000 and 3200 [7]