农产品早报 2025-06-25 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆继续回落，交易天气较好及贸易战担忧，原油大跌亦打压美豆油估值，不过市场预期全球大豆 新作产量可能有下降趋势，叠加美豆估值略低，美豆整体偏震荡。国内豆粕期货继续回落，现货压榨量 本周或创新高，累库压力增大，周二国内豆粕现货稳定或略跌 10 元/吨左右，华东报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计周二国内豆粕成交较弱，提货仍较好。 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程，不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动。 当前美豆端生物柴油政策提供利好，意味着需求端压榨量的预测边际向好，美豆的库销比水平可能支撑 其进一步上行，但考虑到全球蛋白供应过剩，美豆可能仍将低于成本。 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： ...

英媒：欧盟准备征收报复性关税，以确保与特朗普达成更好的贸易协议 金十数据6月24日讯，据英国金融时报报道，在即将到来的谈判最后期限之前，一位高级官员警告称， 如果欧盟想要达成一项好的协议，就必须在特朗普发起的贸易战中发出"可信的威胁"进行报复。两名欧 盟官员表示，欧盟委员会主席的幕僚长塞伯特上周在七国集团峰会结束后告诉欧盟各国大使，强有力回 应的前景将有助于说服美国总统下调对欧盟征收的高额关税。德国总理默茨亦暗示，他的政府将支持采 取更强硬的措施。他周二表示："如果没有达成协议，我们准备使用各种选择。我们能够也将捍卫我们 的利益。"塞伯特告诉各国大使，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩准备升级谈判，以争取更好的协议。他请求 他们支持对价值950亿欧元的美国商品征收一揽子关税，并表示欧盟委员会还在准备针对服务业的措施 ——包括对美国科技公司征税，以及限制美国企业获得公共采购合同。其中一位官员表示，传递出的信 息是，"我们需要通过可信的再平衡方案来发挥杠杆作用"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Billionaire investor Steve Eisman warns that if President Trump’s ongoing tariff stance leads to a full-blown trade war, the global economy could face severe challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Trade War Risks - Eisman identifies tariffs and the potential trade war as the only significant risk currently facing the market, expressing concern over their impact on consumer spending and investor sentiment [2]. - A recent Global Fund Manager Survey indicated that 47% of 222 fund managers view a global recession triggered by trade wars as the biggest "tail risk" for the market [2]. - JPMorgan Research reduced the probability of a U.S. and global recession from 60% to 40%, attributing this to a temporary easing of trade tensions following tariff reductions on China [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - Eisman draws parallels between the current trade environment and the situation before World War I, suggesting that treaties aimed at resolving conflicts can inadvertently lead to larger confrontations [3][4]. - He emphasizes that while no one desires a trade war, the possibility remains due to existing international agreements [4]. Group 3: European Trade Relations - Despite the focus on U.S.-China trade negotiations, Eisman believes that solidifying trade relations with Europe is more significant due to the complexities involved with the EU's 27 member states [5]. - He likens negotiating with the EU to herding cats, highlighting the challenges posed by differing regulations and tax concerns [6]. Group 4: U.S. Negotiation Strategy - Trump has indicated dissatisfaction with the current terms being offered by the EU, suggesting that the U.S. may be overconfident in its negotiating position [7]. - Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross warned that excessive confidence could alienate European allies and complicate negotiations [8].

欧洲央行管委卡兹米尔：在贸易战局势更为明朗之前，不会调整利率。 ...

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/6/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1772.000 -133.3↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1304.6 | -76.30↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2508-EC2510价差 467.40 -37.60↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 314.50 | -30.40↓ | | EC合约基差 | 165.14 +103.00↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 44791 -2262↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1937.14 239.51↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 2,083.46 | -825.22↓ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 1869.59 -218.65↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1,227.97 | 0.08↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1342.46 99.41↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） | 1,578.60 | 89. ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on certain steel products, effective June 23, 2025, expanding the scope to include everyday consumer goods like dishwashers and refrigerators [3][5] - This tariff increase follows a previous adjustment in March, where steel and aluminum tariffs were raised to 25% and then to 50% in June [5][16] - The policy aims to protect domestic industries, but it has sparked controversy as it may lead to increased appliance prices by 5%-10% due to higher import costs [7][5] Group 2: Impact on Global Oil Supply - Iran's parliament suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil, through which one-third of the world's oil supply is transported daily [9][11] - If closed, global oil supply could drop by 20%, potentially causing oil prices to surge from $75 per barrel to between $100 and $120 [11][30] - The rising oil prices could exacerbate inflation in the U.S., with the Federal Reserve raising inflation expectations to 3.5% for 2025, and the risk of inflation exceeding 4% if oil prices remain uncontrolled [20][22][44] Group 3: Economic Repercussions - The dual challenges of tariffs and rising oil prices place significant pressure on the U.S. economy, with potential impacts on consumer prices and manufacturing costs [20][22] - The situation could lead to a "stagflation" crisis, affecting not only the U.S. but also economies reliant on exports to the U.S., such as the EU and Asian countries [24][30] - Experts suggest that Trump's aggressive tariff strategy may be part of a larger plan to eventually lower tariffs while still generating significant revenue, potentially around $400 billion annually [26][41] Group 4: Domestic Steel Industry - The U.S. steel industry is currently underutilized, with a capacity utilization rate of only 78% as of Q1 2025, indicating that high tariffs have not significantly boosted domestic production [34] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies may not effectively revitalize the U.S. steel sector as intended, raising questions about the long-term viability of such measures [34][47]

Core Viewpoint - The doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% by the Trump administration is significantly impacting U.S. food manufacturers, leading them to reconsider their packaging strategies and shift towards alternatives like sterile cartons, glass, and plastic [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Food Manufacturers - Pacific Coast Producers, a major canned food supplier, is facing a 6% increase in special steel costs due to the new tariffs, which could lead to annual losses of up to $40 million and a planned 24% price increase for customers [1][3]. - The influx of imported canned goods from China and Southeast Asia has been driving down prices for domestic products since 2017, exacerbating the impact of the new tariffs [1][3]. - Companies are exploring alternative packaging solutions, such as sterile cartons from Tetra Pak and SIG Group, to mitigate rising costs [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Response and Trends - The beverage industry is also affected, with Coca-Cola indicating a potential shift towards plastic packaging if aluminum costs rise significantly [2][5]. - The American Glass Packaging Association is seeing opportunities to capture market share from aluminum cans due to the tariffs [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that if tariffs persist, companies will need to rethink their packaging strategies to maintain profitability [3][4]. Group 3: Challenges in Transitioning Packaging - Transitioning to alternatives like glass or sterile cartons presents logistical and cost challenges, as glass is generally more expensive due to its heavier weight [4][5]. - The majority of aluminum used in beverage cans is recycled, which may shield some manufacturers from tariff impacts [4][5]. - Companies that have diversified their packaging options, like Coca-Cola, may adapt more easily to tariff changes compared to those focused solely on canned products [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global economy is expected to enter a slowdown phase in the second half of 2025, with the most significant deceleration occurring in the United States [2] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in Q4 of this year and continue with reductions of 50 to 75 basis points in 2026 [1] - The U.S. stock market is not expected to enter a bear market this year, but a decline is likely in Q3, with annual earnings forecasts revised down from 14.1% to below 9% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to drop below 1% in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth estimate of approximately 1.35% [2] - The impact of trade wars has led to a temporary boost in U.S. economic performance in the first half of the year, but this is expected to fade, resulting in weaker economic data [2] - Investment strategies recommended include focusing on defensive and high-quality stocks, as well as high-quality investment-grade corporate bonds, while waiting for economic stabilization before shifting to non-investment-grade bonds [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) trend ratings for treasury bonds are all "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation is favorable for treasury bonds, with the bullish sentiment more obvious in the first half of the second half of the year, but the potential for further bullishness is limited. The market is expected to experience fluctuations, and investors are advised to adopt appropriate trading strategies [1][3][64] - Monetary policy is moderately loose, but the central bank may warn about interest - rate risks. Market sentiment is more cautious, and there are differences in institutional behavior and bond valuations compared to previous years, which limit the upward space of the bond market [2][65][88] - The bond market trend in the second half of the year is divided into three stages. Investment strategies include unilateral band operations, cross - variety strategies, and positive - arbitrage strategies for short - term varieties [3][92][96] Summary by Directory 1. 2025Q1 Treasury Bond Trend Review - In the first half of 2025, treasury bond futures went from weak to strong and then to narrow - range oscillation, experiencing three stages: decline from the beginning of the year to mid - March, rise from late March to early April, and narrow - range oscillation from mid - April to mid - June [15] - The yield curve first flattened and then oscillated. The basis of medium - and short - term varieties gradually returned to normal from a low level, while the basis of TL did not deviate significantly from the seasonal level [18] - The bond market showed new features this year, such as being insensitive to domestic economic fundamentals but sensitive to trade frictions, with the central bank having stronger regulatory ability, persistent negative carry for short - term varieties, and institutional behavior causing occasional disturbances [21] 2. Fiscal and Fundamental Aspects: The Trade War is Complex, and Domestic Low - Volatility Will Continue - **Trade War is Long - Term, Complex, and Has a "Stagflation" Effect**: The trade war is a long - term measure for the US to address its credit crisis. It is complex in its progress, and high tariffs will lead the US into a stagflation environment [24][27][31] - **Export Decline Pressure Becomes Apparent, and Domestic Demand Weakening Pressure Increases**: Trade frictions lead to a decline in overseas demand, which in turn reduces China's export growth. Domestic demand also faces challenges, especially in the real estate market, and consumption and private investment are also under pressure. Fiscal support is crucial for stabilizing demand [33][42][54] - **Fiscal Policy Supports the Economy, and Domestic Macroeconomy Runs with Low Volatility**: The proportion of functional finance is increasing. Fiscal policy should be moderately proactive, with a higher probability of quasi - fiscal policies. Fiscal policy will support economic growth, but the supply - demand imbalance will persist, and inflation will remain low [55][58][63] 3. Monetary Policy and Bond Market Valuation: Similar Policy Rhythms, Different Mindsets and Valuations - **Exchange - Rate Depreciation Pressure Eases, and Monetary Policy is Moderately Loose**: The RMB exchange - rate depreciation pressure has significantly eased. Monetary policy is moderately loose, with a high probability of a 10BP interest - rate cut in August - September. The central bank may warn about long - term interest - rate risks [65][66][73] - **Market Mindset, Institutional Behavior, and Bond Valuations Differ from Previous Years**: The market mindset is more cautious. Institutional behavior is affected by "liability shortage," and bond valuations are high, which limit the upward space of the bond market [78][81][87] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy: Actively Explore Futures Strategies - **Market Rhythm: Gradually Accelerate, Then Decline**: The bond market in the second half of the year is expected to go through three stages: strengthening from July - August, a high probability of decline from September - October, and slow strengthening from November - December [92][93] - **Strategy Analysis: Band - Operation Thinking, Explore Futures Strategies**: Unilateral strategies suggest that allocation portfolios should buy mid - term long positions on dips, and trading portfolios should conduct band operations. Cross - variety strategies recommend paying attention to the strategy of going long on 2TS and short on T. Positive - arbitrage strategies suggest seizing the tail - end opportunities of short - term varieties. Hedging strategies recommend paying attention to short - hedging strategies from September - October [96][98][103]

农产品早报 2025-06-24 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 周一美豆小幅回落，交易天气较好及贸易战担忧，不过市场预期全球大豆新作产量可能有下降趋势，叠 加美豆估值略低，美豆整体偏震荡。国内豆粕期货回落，现货压榨量本周或创新高，累库压力增大，周 一国内豆粕现货下跌 50 元/吨，华东报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周港口大豆库存 783 万吨，油厂 豆粕库存 51 万吨。周一国内豆粕成交一般，提货仍较好。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程，不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动。 当前美 ...