消息人士：英国贸易大臣将于周二与美国贸易代表格里尔就关税协议进行会面。 ...

美联储古尔斯比表示，如果关税通过达成协议或其他方式得以避免，可能会重新回到可以降息的局面。 ...

Domestic News - The National Internet Information Office continues to deepen the rectification of online financial information chaos [1] - Four departments jointly issued guidance to promote efficient handling of enterprise migration registration as a single matter [1] International News - Japan plans to introduce low-priced reserve rice to alleviate inflation pressure, potentially launching at 400 yen per kilogram starting in June [1] - Japan intends to reach a tariff agreement with the United States before the G7 summit in June [1] - Russian officials stated that a draft peace memorandum will be submitted in the coming days [1] - Power outages in southern France affected 160,000 households, causing disruptions to the Cannes Film Festival screenings [1] - The European Union is considering removing 20 Russian banks from SWIFT and lowering the price cap on Russian oil as part of sanctions [1]

Group 1 - The core issue is Japan's decision to consider imposing a 10% tax on small packages from China, which is seen as a provocative move amid ongoing U.S. pressure [2][4][5] - Japan's shift towards taxing Chinese goods comes as a surprise, as many expected it to align with China against U.S. demands [2][5] - The backdrop of this decision includes the increasing competition from Chinese e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu, which have posed significant challenges to U.S. and European markets [4][5] Group 2 - Japan's automotive industry, including brands like Toyota and Nissan, still holds a significant market share in China, approximately 14%, despite facing challenges from local competitors [7] - The potential for Japan to face retaliatory tariffs from China is raised, especially if Japan continues to impose taxes on Chinese goods while the U.S. has already increased tariffs on Japanese automobiles [9][11] - Japan's current economic strategy must focus on stabilizing its domestic economy and avoiding further pressure from the U.S., rather than hastily taxing Chinese imports [15][11]

德国总理默茨：关税问题上存在迹象显示美国可能有意与欧盟达成协议。 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/16 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a decline across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.68% to 3380.82 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index down by 1.37%, the ChiNext Index down by 1.77%, the STAR 50 Index down by 1.26%, and the Northbound 50 Index down by 0.38% [1] - The beauty and personal care sector led the gains, while sectors such as software development, internet services, power equipment, semiconductors, diversified finance, and securities saw relatively larger declines [1] International Market Context - U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones slightly down, the S&P 500 nearly flat, and the Nasdaq up by 0.72%, marking three consecutive days of significant gains for the Nasdaq [1] - Following the U.S.-China tariff agreement, U.S. stocks surged initially, but only the Nasdaq maintained strong performance, while blue-chip stocks in the Dow and S&P 500 remained relatively weak due to recent positive news for tech stocks [1] - Hong Kong stocks also retreated, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.79% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.56% [1] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar experienced fluctuations, dipping before recovering, but saw a decline again during the Asian and European trading sessions [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate stabilized around 7.2080 after a depreciation on Wednesday [1] Trade Relations and Market Outlook - The impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on international financial markets appears to have subsided, but investor confidence remains cautious, contributing to the stock market's loss of upward momentum [2] - The likelihood of significant upward or downward movements in A-shares is low, with a balanced oscillation pattern expected to prevail [2] - Current macroeconomic policies in China are anticipated to offset external pressures, leading to limited volatility in the stock market [2]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

周三（5月14日）欧洲时段，欧元/美元小幅上涨至接近1.1200，在美国4月通胀数据低于预期后，美元 保持防御姿态。欧元兑美元上涨，荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole在一份研报中称，这是因为周二 美国公布了低于预期的通胀数据，不过，欧元兑美元进一步上涨的空间可能有限。 美国4月通胀数据低于预期，导致美元（USD）兑欧元（EUR）走弱。交易员等待德国4月harmonized Index of Consumer Prices（HICP）数据以获得新的动力，该数据定于周三晚些时候公布。 根据美国劳工统计局周二发布的数据，衡量美国通货膨胀的消费者价格指数（CPI）在4月同比下降 2.3%，低于市场预期的2.4%和3月份的2.4%，创下自2021年2月以来的最低水平。核心CPI（排除波动较 大的食品和能源价格）4月同比上涨2.8%，与前值和预期持平。美国CPI报告出炉后，美元立即走软。 经过两天在瑞士日内瓦的谈判，美国和中国同意相互降低关税。美国将对中国进口商品的关税从145% 降至30%，中国将美国进口商品的关税从125%降至10%。市场对世界上两个最大经济体之间可能达成关 税协议以缓和贸易战的乐观情 ...

2025年05月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：中美贸易取得进展 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：情绪改善，价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：震荡上行 | 7 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 7 | | 锌：短期宏观支撑 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，震荡运行 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 | 13 | | 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：需求改善有限叠加矿价暂未止跌，偏弱震荡格局或延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：整体弱势基本面 | 17 | | 多晶硅：市场消息扰动，关注现货报价 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：一轮提降发起，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震 ...