新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 铜价下跌刺激下游采购 目前价格暂时维稳 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-11-18，沪铜主力合约开于 86440元/吨，收于 85650元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.93%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 85530元/吨，收于 85900 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.29%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价85830~86180元/吨，对当月合约均价升水70元/吨，较前日下跌35元。早 盘期铜自86100元/吨持续走弱，最低触及85850元/吨，跨月价差在Contango与Back结构间窄幅波动，进口亏损收窄 至600元/吨以内。铜价回落刺激下游采购情绪回暖，上海地区采销指数分别升至3.10和3.24。平水铜主流成交于升 水20-30元/吨，部分紧俏品牌报价居高；好铜流通偏紧，成交重心上移。 重要资讯汇总： 美联储方面，特朗普表示自己已经选定了下一任美联储主席的人选；贝森特表示，他已将候选范围缩小至以下人 选：现任美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼，前美联储理事沃什，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特，以及贝莱德公司高管里 德。"小非农"ADP ...

Core Viewpoint - The green energy ETF (562010) shows stable performance with a slight increase, while key stocks in the sector exhibit mixed results, indicating ongoing market dynamics in the green energy space [1][3]. Market Performance - The green energy ETF reached a peak increase of 0.88% during trading, currently up by 0.1% [1]. - Key stocks such as Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Zhongmin Resources showed strong performance with increases of 3.52%, 3.42%, and 3.11% respectively [1]. - Conversely, stocks like Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, and Jinglong Electric experienced declines of 2.22%, 1.43%, and 1.28% respectively [1]. Policy and Industry Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued guidelines on November 16 to promote the consumption and regulation of new energy, including the integration of new energy storage into the capacity price mechanism [3]. - Longi Green Energy announced the acquisition of Suzhou Jingkong Energy to enter the energy storage sector, expanding its business layout [3]. - The 2025 New Energy Battery Industry Development Conference highlighted that China's new energy storage installed capacity accounts for over 40% of the global total, indicating rapid industry innovation [3]. Future Outlook - Zheshang Securities expresses optimism about the potential in the green energy sector due to several factors: 1. A synchronized increase in both domestic and international demand, leading to a favorable period for energy storage [3]. 2. Efficiency improvements and cost reductions benefiting the photovoltaic industry, supported by favorable policies and technological advancements [3]. 3. Expanding overseas market opportunities, opening up new profit growth spaces for the industry [3]. ETF Composition - The green energy ETF passively tracks the green energy index, with the top three sectors being batteries, photovoltaic equipment, and electricity, collectively accounting for over 75% of the index weight as of the end of October [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include CATL, Sungrow Power Supply, Changjiang Electric, BYD, Longi Green Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, Tongwei Co., and Xianlead Intelligent [3].

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant presence of "Bay Area Made" products at the 15th National Games, showcasing the achievements of enterprises from Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau in various sectors such as smart audio systems, robotics, and traditional crafts [1][2] - Guangdong's economy is robust, with a GDP of 14.16 trillion yuan, maintaining the top position in China for 36 consecutive years. The province has developed nine trillion-yuan industrial clusters and 77,000 high-tech enterprises, with rapid growth in emerging industries like low-altitude economy, robotics, and artificial intelligence [1][2] - The core industry of artificial intelligence in Guangdong exceeds 220 billion yuan, accounting for about one-third of the national total, while the digital economy ranks first in the country. The production of industrial robots reached 247,000 units, representing 43.5% of the national output [1][2] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector in the Bay Area is strongly supported by technology, with Guangdong investing 509.96 billion yuan in research and development, which is 3.6% of its GDP, surpassing levels in some developed countries [2] - Hong Kong has been recognized for its digital competitiveness, ranking 4th globally in the latest digital competitiveness index, reflecting a rise of 3 positions from the previous year [2] - The unique industrial development model in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area combines top-down and bottom-up approaches, facilitating efficient transformation from design to market, ensuring that innovative ideas are effectively utilized [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent guidelines from the Central Committee emphasize the need for coordinated local consumption and external delivery of clean energy, aiming for high-quality development in the energy sector, while addressing the challenges of achieving peak coal and oil consumption by 2030 [1][2]. Group 1: Coal and Oil Peak Consumption - China's coal consumption has decreased from 68.5% in 2000 to 53.2% in 2024, while oil consumption has dropped from 22% to 18.2%, yet both still account for 71.4% of total energy consumption, indicating a challenge in reaching peak consumption targets [2][5]. - The coal industry is expected to peak before coal power, as coal power's peak is delayed due to its role in ensuring energy security and the reduction in coal consumption from other sectors like steel and cement [6][5]. Group 2: Energy Delivery and Storage - The primary solution for large-scale renewable energy consumption in the northwest regions is external delivery, as local consumption capacity is limited due to economic constraints and insufficient grid flexibility [7][8]. - The construction of external delivery channels faces challenges such as high costs and complex approval processes, which can lead to underutilization of built channels [9][10]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Investment - As of September, China's renewable energy capacity reached nearly 220 million kilowatts, with wind and solar power exceeding 170 million kilowatts, necessitating an annual addition of 19 to 20 million kilowatts to meet the 2035 targets [13][15]. - The recent market price decline for renewable energy has led to a cautious investment stance among power generation companies, particularly in the solar sector, due to the adjustments in pricing mechanisms [16][17]. Group 4: Addressing Negative Pricing - The frequent occurrence of negative pricing in the electricity market is attributed to supply-demand imbalances, and simply adjusting long-term trading ratios will not resolve this issue [18][19]. - To ensure that the benefits of negative pricing reach consumers, innovative mechanisms are needed, such as developing virtual power plants that aggregate consumer loads to respond to market conditions [20][21]. Group 5: New Energy Storage Development - The new energy storage sector is experiencing rapid growth but faces challenges such as low price competition and economic viability, leading to widespread operational difficulties [22][23]. - The government is working on reforms to allow energy storage to participate as an independent market entity, which includes integrating storage into capacity pricing mechanisms to ensure stable revenue streams [24].

文 | 天合光能 11月17日，天合光能公告称，公司控股子公司 天合储能与北美、欧洲、拉美三大区域的 客户签订合计2.66GWh的储能产品销售合同 ，其中与北美区域客户签订的合同规模达 1.08GWh。此次合同的顺利履行预计将对公司未来的经营业绩产生积极影响。 目前，天合储能 已确认参加第十四届储能国际峰会暨展览会。期待与您相约2026年4月，共 赴ESIE之约。 ESIE 2026 储能产业发展的风向标 相关阅读 新型储能飙涨超3000%！中国储能在海外市场集中爆发 涨幅超200%！"一天一价"！还要接着涨？ 前瞻30+海外市场资源 | 2025中国储能CEO峰会火热报名中 联盟官微 关注政策、项目、企业、市场活动 联盟官方小秘书 入会、入群、产业交流、活动对接 预定展位详情咨询： 曹先生 13 5 5 2 7 1 2 1 8 9 王先生 13 5 8 1 8 8 5 5 2 0 李先生 13 5 8 1 7 4 1 6 8 0 赵先生 18 2 1 0 1 8 8 7 7 1 柏女士 18 0 3 1 4 5 1 0 0 7 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rongbai Technology has signed a cooperation agreement with CATL to collaborate in the field of sodium battery cathode materials, which is expected to enhance the safety and sustainability of the new energy battery industry [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - Rongbai Technology's stock price surged to 35.40 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 25.3 billion CNY following the announcement of the partnership [1]. - Under the agreement, CATL will designate Rongbai Technology as its primary supplier of sodium battery cathode materials, committing to purchase at least 60% of its total procurement from Rongbai, contingent on meeting quality and service standards [1]. - The partnership aims to leverage the strengths of both companies in strategic goals, long-term product supply, and new product development [1]. Group 2: Industry Position and Financial Performance - Rongbai Technology is a leader in the sodium battery cathode materials sector, having made strategic investments over the years that have resulted in superior performance metrics and cost control [2]. - Financially, Rongbai Technology reported a revenue of 8.986 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 20.64%, and a net profit of -204 million CNY, indicating a shift from profit to loss [2]. - The recent certification of CATL's sodium-ion battery under the new national standard GB38031-2025 is expected to significantly impact the market, paving the way for large-scale applications of sodium battery cathode materials and sodium-ion batteries [2].

Economic Data - In October, China's retail sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while industrial added value rose by 4.9% year-on-year[4] - The housing prices in 70 major cities in China experienced an overall decline in October[4] - The new energy storage installation capacity in China surged over 3000%[4] Market Trends - The U.S. and Switzerland reached a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on Swiss products from 39% to 15%[4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.90 basis points to 3.606%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.71 basis points to 4.146%[4] Stock Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 22,900.59, up by 0.13%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47,147.48, down by 0.65%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,572.46, down by 1.85%[5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures, with a peak rise of 8% and a closing increase of 7.24%, reaching 93,660 yuan/ton, which has positively impacted related lithium mining sectors [1] - The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance reported that in October, the domestic power battery installation volume reached 84.1 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, with lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for 80.3% of the total [2] - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing a consumption peak due to the adjustment of the vehicle purchase tax and the traditional year-end sales season, with October's production and sales of new energy vehicles reaching 1.772 million and 1.715 million units, respectively [2] Group 2 - The CSI Rare Metals Theme Index (930632) has shown strong performance, with a 2.91% increase, and its top ten weighted stocks account for 60% of the index, including companies like Northern Rare Earth and Ganfeng Lithium [3][5] - The recent demand for lithium salts is expected to grow due to the new energy storage installation target of 180 GW by 2027, as outlined in the National Development and Reform Commission's action plan [2] - The Rare Metals ETF (561800) has risen by 3.11%, reflecting the overall performance of the rare metals sector, which includes mining, smelting, and processing companies [1][5]

Group 1 - Multiple airlines in China, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Southern Airlines, announced a special ticket handling policy for flights to Japan, allowing free refunds and changes for tickets with travel dates before December 31, 2025 [2] - Other airlines such as Sichuan Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, and Hainan Airlines also issued similar notifications regarding ticket handling for Japan routes [2] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission disclosed that Yuzhu Technology Co., Ltd. has completed its IPO guidance work, with the guidance period lasting less than four months [3] - The IPO guidance was filed on July 18, 2025, and the completion report was issued by CITIC Securities on November 10, 2025, with 24 staff members assigned during the guidance period [3] Group 3 - Berkshire Hathaway built a position in Google-A during the third quarter, purchasing nearly 17.85 million shares, corresponding to a market value of approximately $4.3 billion at the end of the quarter [5] - Berkshire also increased its holdings in several companies, including Chubb, Lennar, Domino's Pizza, Sirius XM, and Lamar Advertising, while reducing its stake in Apple by selling nearly 41.79 million shares, resulting in a 15% decrease in Apple shares held [5]

Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to recover in 2026, with a focus on resource products, anti-involution policies, and emerging industries as investment opportunities [3][27] - The industry has shown signs of stabilization and recovery since 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 10.56% in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - Key sectors identified for investment include oil and gas, potassium fertilizer, phosphorus chemicals, fluorochemicals, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), electronic resins, and certain anti-involution sectors [3] Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is cyclical, with net profits in the SW basic chemical sector reaching a historical high in 2021, followed by a downturn, with 2024 profits expected to be only 52% of 2021 levels [3] - The supply side has seen a decline in fixed asset investment since June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle [3] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated capacities, which is expected to alleviate the oversupply issue in the petrochemical sector [3] Demand Dynamics - Traditional demand is anticipated to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus [3] - Emerging demands from sectors such as new energy and AI are expected to drive growth in key chemical materials [3] - The domestic chemical industry is projected to increase its global market share as overseas capacities are cleared out [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment in 2026 include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Yara International, Yuntianhua, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Jiaao Environmental Protection, Zhuoyue New Energy, Shengquan Group, Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Xinhecheng [3] Sector Performance - The petrochemical sector's revenue decreased by 7.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, while net profit fell by 11.1% [24] - The basic chemical sector showed a recovery with a 1.9% increase in revenue and an 8.9% increase in net profit [24] - The oilfield services sector was the only sub-sector to achieve growth in both revenue and net profit during this period [24] Price Trends - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has shown a downward trend, with a reported decline of 11.5% from the beginning of the year [13] - The PPI for the chemical industry is expected to show marginal improvement in the second half of 2025, although it remains in a downward trend overall [16] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to promote a rebalancing of supply and demand in traditional chemical products, with various sectors responding positively to this policy [27] - Key meetings and documents from government bodies indicate a focus on maintaining growth and regulating new capacity in the petrochemical sector [27]