有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/14 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78670 9662 8.16 三月 78340 9684 8.10 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.16 -220.79 现货出口 -64.09 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22450 2772 8.10 三月 22355 2773 6.17 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.65 -1530.73 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20790 2607 7.97 三月 20630 2609 7.93 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.50 -1371.41 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120300 15058 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.24 -2894.10 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -100 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The previous optimistic sentiment in the market has cooled down, and the market is gradually returning to the reality of fundamentals [6]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals may be in a situation of a slight increase in supply and weak demand. Affected by the off - season and trade uncertainties, the upward space of Shanghai Aluminum may be limited [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The fundamentals may be in a situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost - support logic is relatively strong, and the short - term upward space may be limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated strongly, up 0.29% to 20,695 yuan/ton; Alumina first rose and then fell, up 3.08% to 3,117 yuan/ton; Cast Aluminum rose 0.23% to 19,930 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and demand is stable; Electrolytic Aluminum supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is weak; Cast Aluminum Alloy supply and demand are both weak [6][8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Lightly short the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum and Alumina, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of July 11, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20,835 yuan/ton, up 0.1%; LME Aluminum closed at 2,606 US dollars/ton, up 0.02%; Alumina futures were at 3,195 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; Cast Aluminum Alloy was at 19,930 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 8.01, up 0.17; The aluminum - zinc spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; The copper - aluminum spread was 57,735 yuan/ton, down 1,360 yuan/ton [12][23]. - **Spot Prices**: As of July 11, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 1.94%; in Shanxi was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 2.11%; in Guiyang was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 2.11%; The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was flat; The A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, with a spot discount of 70 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from last week [26][30]. - **Positions**: As of July 11, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 691,850 lots, up 0.12%; The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 9,660 lots [18]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 395,725 tons, up 10.86%; SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 103,197 tons, up 9.05%; Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 412,000 tons, down 2.83%. As of July 11, SHFE electrolytic aluminum warrants were 51,980 tons, up 35.07%; LME electrolytic aluminum registered warrants were 387,500 tons, up 11.11% [34]. - **Raw Materials**: In May 2025, alumina production was 7.488 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; The cumulative production from January to May was 37.401 million tons, up 9.5% year - on - year. The total import of bauxite increased, and the port inventory rebounded. The domestic bauxite nine - port inventory was 24.54 million tons, up 50,000 tons month - on - month [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. In May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 159,700.92 tons, up 3.7% year - on - year; the export was 72.44 tons, up 34.3% year - on - year [43]. - **Production and Trade**: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.828 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; the cumulative output from January to May was 18.59 million tons, up 4% year - on - year. The import of electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year. The production of aluminum products, cast aluminum alloy, and aluminum alloy all increased, with different trends in imports and exports [49][53][57][60][63]. - **Downstream Markets**: In May 2025, the real estate market declined slightly, with the real estate development climate index at 93.72, down 0.13 from last month. Infrastructure investment was positive, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [66][69]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price is expected to decline slightly with fluctuations in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [73].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating Core Views - The report mainly presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of various non - ferrous metals on July 10, 2025, including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin [1][4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79040 (domestic) and 9683 (LME) with a ratio of 8.25; March price is 78200 (domestic) and 9661 (LME) with a ratio of 8.17. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.16 with a profit of - 437.33 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22160 (domestic) and 2719 (LME) with a ratio of 8.15; March price is 22045 (domestic) and 2717 (LME) with a ratio of 6.34. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.67 with a profit of - 1420.13 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20660 (domestic) and 2583 (LME) with a ratio of 8.00; March price is 20455 (domestic) and 2585 (LME) with a ratio of 7.95. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.51 with a profit of - 1323.71 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 118350 (domestic) and 14781 (LME) with a ratio of 8.01. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25 with a profit of - 2437.48 [1] - **Lead**: Spot prices are 17025 and 17195 (domestic), 2032 and 2049 (LME) with ratios of 8.37 and 10.78 respectively. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.84 with a profit of - 957.80 [1][3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 1440, - 1640, - 1840, and - 2030 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 501, 900, 1309, and 1717 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are 50, - 25, - 80, and - 125 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 213, 333, 452, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 185, - 245, - 335, and - 410 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 330, 446, and 561 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are 70, 90, 85, and 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, and 530 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 1010, - 920, - 720, and - 550 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 610 with a theoretical spread of 5443 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.55, 3.82, 4.55, 0.93, 1.19, and 0.78 respectively; in London (three - continuous) are 3.51, 3.71, 4.68, 0.95, 1.26, and 0.75 respectively [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market may continue its volatile upward trend in the short term, but its upward space is still limited by the oversupply on the supply side. The fundamental contradiction remains prominent, and the growth in new energy vehicle sales has not yet translated into restocking momentum for the material sector. The midstream continues to use the customer-supplied model to avoid exposure risks. Additionally, the expansion of the spot discount to over a thousand yuan will attract arbitrage funds, and attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback under inventory pressure. Key factors to monitor include the production schedule of cathode materials and the seasonal production rhythm of Qinghai Salt Lakes [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Main Contract and Basis**: On July 8, the main contract of lithium carbonate was reported at 63,880 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.35% from the previous day. The basis continued to weaken, and the spot discount to the futures widened to -1,080 yuan, indicating a divergence in the expectation of improved long-term supply and demand [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased significantly by 15,500 lots in a single day, and the trading volume soared by 155.69% to 545,000 lots, reaching a new high in the past week, intensifying the game between long and short funds [1] 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Short-term disturbing factors have increased. The capacity utilization rate of lithium salt plants decreased by 1 percentage point to 61.8% month-on-month, but the pressure of medium-term supply expansion still exists. The raw material prices remained stalemate, with the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remaining flat in the past two weeks [2] - **Demand Side**: There was a marginal improvement but limited elasticity. In June, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.071 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the penetration rate exceeded 52.7%, with terminal data exceeding expectations. However, the transmission to the cathode material sector was limited. Ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate only saw a slight increase, the cell prices remained stable across the board, and midstream procurement was still mainly based on long-term agreements, with a low willingness to replenish inventory with spot orders [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory accumulation pressure in the industrial chain continued. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,510 tons month-on-month to 138,347 tons, rising for four consecutive weeks [2] 3. Market Summary - The lithium carbonate market may continue its volatile upward pattern in the short term, but the upward space is still limited by the oversupply on the supply side. Attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback under inventory pressure, and key factors to monitor include the production schedule of cathode materials and the seasonal production rhythm of Qinghai Salt Lakes [3] 4. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract of lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate, power-type ternary materials, and power-type lithium iron phosphate all saw slight increases on July 8 compared to the previous day, while the prices of lithium concentrate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and various types of cells remained unchanged [5] - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1 percentage point to 61.8% compared to July 4, and the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [5] 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 8, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,788 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 306 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 61,300 yuan/ton, both increasing by 350 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upward. In the future, the price may maintain a low-level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the change in actual demand increments [6] - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: In June, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.071 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the wholesale volume was 1.259 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28% [7] - **Industry News**: Multiple companies announced production expansion and technological transformation plans, including the construction of the "Mamico Salt Lake Mining Project" by Tibet Ali Mamico Mining Development Co., Ltd., the technological transformation project of a 25,000-ton lithium salt production line by Zhongkuang Resources (Jiangxi) Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., etc [8][9] 6. Appendix: Large Model Inference Process - The futures price of lithium carbonate has rebounded, but it is constrained by high inventory and weak demand, and may maintain a low-level volatile trend in the future. Attention should be paid to whether there is a substantial improvement in subsequent demand or more adjustments on the supply side [30][31]

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/07/09 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 严志妮：Z0022076 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 780-900 | 31.17% | 60.79% | | 焦炭 | 1350-1500 | 23.97% | 44.10% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存套保 | 焦炭盘面大幅升水现货，交割利润可观 | 多 | 做空J2509 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1425-1450 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1450-1500 | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | ...

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/08 | | 国内价格 | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货 | 16950 | 2018 | 8.41 | | | | | 三月 | 17225 | 2043 | 10.86 | 现货进口 | 8.84 | -854.51 | 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/08 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -720 -870 -1120 -1350 理论价差 502 902 1311 1720 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -350 -400 -465 -515 理论价差 215 336 458 579 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -405 -460 -550 -635 理论价差 215 331 447 563 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -30 -15 -30 -55 理论价差 211 318 426 533 镍 次月-现货 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 6 日 国债期货周报 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 国 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 ◼ 国债期货上周先下后上。 ◼ 权益市场风险偏好回落，同时央行二季度例会压低市场三季度降息降准预期。 ◼ 国债期货长端合约走强，短端走弱。 ◼ 投机与配置周度净多头持仓均呈现超 10%的较大正增长。 ◼ IRR 回落，正套可了结符合我们 6 月底策略会的判断。 ◼ 维持后市大方向看震荡的观点。适当取舍做多跨期、逢低配置与逢高套保。 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 国债期货合约周度表现分化。短端合约表现较弱的同时长端较强，曲线有所走平。 图 1：活跃合约走势 图 2：活跃合约周度涨跌幅 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 100 105 110 115 120 125 2024-01 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong "counter - attack" of coking coal futures prices is related to supply - side low - valuation - matching production cuts, 6 - 7 month production and import seasonality, high - level iron - water production, and market expectation revisions. The futures price has changed from long - term discount to premium. Given the current small premium and the upcoming resumption of domestic coking coal mines, excessive bullish expectations for coking coal futures prices are not advisable. The valuation decline space caused by the previous concentrated short - view on coking coal futures prices will be significantly revised upwards [12][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Mongolian coal suspends customs clearance due to holidays, and the effect of domestic coal production cuts emerges - Recently, the trading of Mongolian coal has improved significantly due to the premium opportunity provided by the futures price. During the Naadam Festival from July 11th to July 15th, the three major Mongolian ports were closed for 5 days, leading to an expected short - term supply tightening. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the port increased from 705 yuan/ton in the second half of the month to 740 - 750 yuan/ton [1] - Since May, domestic coking coal mines have successively cut production. State - owned large mines have poor sales and some mines are forced to cut production due to full storage; small mines have many accidents and the number of mines under suspension and rectification has increased since June; some private mines in certain regions have cut or even stopped production due to poor sales and production losses [1] - As production cuts continue and expand, the inventory of coking coal in some invisible links has been significantly digested, and the visible carbon element inventory has shown a significant decline since mid - June [3] 2. The sentiment of futures - spot trading surges, bringing vitality to spot trading - The reversal of futures price sentiment has provided space for futures - spot arbitrage and selling hedging, leading to a surge in futures - spot trading sentiment, which has driven the spot market of coking coal. The rate of unsuccessful auctions in the spot market has rapidly declined, and the prices of some coal types have rebounded significantly. For example, the price of lean coking coal in Shanxi has increased from 930 yuan/ton to 970 yuan/ton, and the coking coal warehouse - receipt prices in Shanxi (except Mongolian coal) have also risen to 875 - 920 yuan/ton [5] - The price of Australian imported low - sulfur main coking coal converted into warehouse - receipt price is close to the futures price, and the trading of imported coal at ports has become more active. On the 2nd, the price index of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal rose by 9.7 to 196.85. The significant improvement in coking coal spot liquidity, combined with the small - scale replenishment of downstream coking plants and steel mills, will promote coal mine sales and drive up prices [7][9] 3. High - level iron - water production is maintained during the off - season, and the "anti - involution" expectation protects steel - making profits - Thanks to the relatively weak prices of coke and iron ore and the continuous support of export resilience, the current steel prices and steel - making profit levels are not bad. During the off - season of construction demand, iron - water production has not significantly decreased and remains at a high level of 242,000 tons per day. Although there are expectations of phased production restrictions in Tangshan, the national iron - water production is expected to remain at a relatively high level due to profit incentives [10] - The widespread discussion of "anti - involution" has led to a good expectation of future steel - making profits in the market. In the past, during the expectation stage of production restrictions or flat - control, both steel prices and raw material prices were driven upwards. The "anti - involution" expectation has also led to a re - discussion of the valuation repair of bulk commodities with over - capacity and valuations close to cost support [12]

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/03 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/03 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -280 -470 -770 -1000 理论价差 506 910 1323 1736 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -85 -140 -195 -245 理论价差 215 335 456 576 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -165 -235 -325 -435 理论价差 215 331 447 563 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 105 120 120 125 理论价差 210 317 423 529 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 690 780 940 1050 锡 5-1 价差 -1000 理论价差 5546 期现套利跟踪 2025/07/03 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -140 -420 理论价差 237 644 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 25 -60 理论价差 113 243 国 ...

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major stock index futures contracts all increased last week, with the CSI 1000 index futures showing the largest gain of 5.49%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest increase of 1.27% [3][11] - The average trading volume of the four major index futures contracts varied, with the IH contract seeing the largest increase of 7.98%, while the IC contract experienced the largest decrease of 4.93% [3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -4.84%, -8.50%, -11.12%, and -4.28%, respectively, indicating a narrowing of the basis compared to the previous week [3][11] Group 2: Arbitrage Opportunities and Dividend Predictions - For the IF contract, the required basis rates for both long and short arbitrage strategies over the next 15 trading days are 0.59% and -1.02%, respectively, indicating a potential for reverse arbitrage [4][12] - The predicted dividend points for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices are estimated at 33.23, 18.52, 28.86, and 13.05, respectively [4][12] - The narrowing of the basis for IH, IF, and IC contracts reflects a re-pricing of tail risks in the market, while the small-cap IM contract still shows deep basis discounts [4][12] Group 3: Sell-Side Strategy Insights - Eight brokerage firms have turned optimistic about market sentiment, while seven firms noted increased liquidity or capital inflows [5][39] - There is a consensus among brokerage firms regarding the positive outlook for the military, non-ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors [5][39] - The report utilized a language model to summarize the market and industry perspectives from over 20 sell-side strategy teams, providing a comprehensive overview of investment consensus and divergences [5][39]