美元兑日元USD/JPY向上触及145，日内涨0.32%。 美元/日元 ...

泰铢兑美元日内下跌0.5%，至32.5350，为自7月1日以来的最低水平。 美元/泰铢 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has experienced a decline of 0.50% against the US dollar (USD), currently trading at 0.6517 [1]

渣打银行认为，鉴于港元持续弱势，香港金融管理局今年下半年可能时不时地出手干预，以回笼市场流 动性。未来3至6个月，港元兑美元汇率预计将维持在7.85附近，即交易区间的弱方兑换保证水平。报告 指出，香港金管局可能会采取行动，回笼流动性并缩减银行体系总结余，而这一过程通常持续3至6个 月。 ...

纽元兑美元NZD/USD日内跌超0.50%，现报0.6025。 纽元/美元 ...

2025年7月7日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1506，下调（人民币升值）29点； 欧元/人民币报8.4292，上调64点； 港元/人民币报0.91092，下调5.8点； 英镑/人民币报9.7688，下调148点； 澳元/人民币报4.6863，下调240点； 加元/人民币报5.2610，下调141点； 100日元/人民币报4.9545，上调77点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.9917，下调375点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3304，下调234点； 人民币/林吉特报0.58924，下调10.5点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报9.0110，下调32点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.6167，下调13点。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of currency fluctuations, particularly the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, on the financial market and liquidity conditions in China. The overall trend indicates a loosening of monetary conditions driven by external factors rather than seasonal variations [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy and Liquidity** - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been guiding liquidity conditions, leading to a significant drop in overnight and 7-day repurchase rates, which are at record lows. This indicates a trend of decreasing funding costs [1][3][4]. 2. **Impact of Currency Appreciation** - The passive appreciation of the RMB is primarily influenced by the depreciation of the US dollar and external economic policies, which have resulted in a more favorable liquidity environment in China [1][5][9]. 3. **Expectations for Future Interest Rates** - There is an expectation that short-term interest rates (DR001 and R007) will continue to decline, potentially reaching levels as low as 1.2. This trend is expected to benefit short-term financial instruments such as certificates of deposit and credit bonds [11][12]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook** - The current liquidity conditions are seen as a positive signal for the economy, with expectations of continued support for the bond market despite a lack of significant improvement in the underlying economic fundamentals [13][14]. 5. **External Factors and Market Dynamics** - The weakening of confidence in the US dollar due to recent US government policies has led to a shift in capital flows towards non-USD currencies, including the RMB. This shift is expected to further influence domestic liquidity and market conditions [8][17]. 6. **Potential for Future Rate Cuts** - If external economic conditions change, the PBOC may need to implement earlier and more substantial interest rate cuts to manage the appreciation of the RMB. Current market pricing does not fully reflect these potential rate cuts [3][16]. 7. **Investor Recommendations** - The period from July to September is anticipated to be favorable for interest rates, with expectations of significant returns across the yield curve. Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities in the upcoming issuance of long-term government bonds [18]. Other Important Insights - The PBOC's recent policy adjustments indicate a more proactive stance on managing exchange rates and liquidity, reflecting a shift in their approach to monetary policy [10]. - The market's optimistic outlook is supported by increased borrowing demand and the stability provided by major banks, despite temporary liquidity tightness observed at the end of the first half of the year [15].

【导读】中外资机构热议下半年投资机遇：继续看好中国股市，弱美元情景下全球资产须多元灵活配置 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 2025年上半年，全球金融市场在美国发动关税战、地缘政治冲突和AI技术革命等影响下剧烈震荡。进入下半年，机构对全球市场前景有何 展望、如何制定资产配置策略，备受关注。 中国基金报邀请 工银国际首席经济学家程实，汇丰私人银行及财富管理中国首席投资总监匡正，渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕 杰，安联投资亚太区高级经济师汤继成，博时基金（国际）有限公司固定收益部副主管卢里 等机构人士，共同探讨下半年的投资机遇。 工银国际首席经济学家 程实 汇丰私人银行及财富管理中国首席投资总监 匡正 渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师 王昕杰 中国基金报：下半年人民币会否继续走强？ 程实： 下半年人民币汇率预计将呈现温和升值、双向波动走势。国内经济基本面趋稳向好，若美联储在下半年启动降息，中美利差有望收 窄，将进一步提升人民币资产的吸引力。 安联投资亚太区高级经济师 汤继成 博时基金（国际）有限公司固定收益部副主管 卢里 下半年继续看好中国股市 中国基金报：下半年如何调整A股及港股投资策略？ 程实： 下半年A股和港 ...

徐闻宇 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 期货研究报告 | FICC 组 外汇半年报 展望 2025 年下半年，预计美元兑人民币将在 6.8–7.3 区间内维持双向窄幅波动。市场普遍认为人民币不存在大幅单边贬值或升值的基 础：美元指数可能继续偏弱但其下行速度放缓，人民币汇率升破 6.8 的可能性较低，而即使遭遇外部冲击也有望守住 7.3 左右的政策底 线。整体趋势上，人民币对美元将保持温和偏升的态势：在弱势美元环境下延续小幅升值，但幅度有限，年底前汇率中枢或稳步略有下 移。 外汇：美元难以转向 FICC 组研究报告 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院宏观研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 z 蔡劭立 从业资格号：F3063489 投资咨询号：Z0014617 高聪 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 汪雅航 从业资格号：F03099648 投资咨询号：Z0019185 朱思谋 从业资格号：F03142856 FICC 组 | 外汇半年报 2025-07-06 美元难以转向 研究院 FICC 组 研究员 徐闻宇 邮箱： xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience against the US dollar, with a stable exchange rate and a positive outlook for the second half of the year, supported by domestic economic recovery and effective macro policies [1][3]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - As of July 4, the offshore yuan to US dollar exchange rate was 7.1643, up 58 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - In the first half of the year, the onshore yuan appreciated by 1.82% and the offshore yuan by 2.45% against the US dollar [1]. - The US dollar index fell by 10.79% during the same period, while the yuan's central parity rate increased by 298 basis points [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Yuan Strength - The weakening US dollar index is a significant external factor contributing to the yuan's strength, alongside domestic economic recovery and proactive macro policies [1]. - Analysts believe that the market's lack of confidence in the US dollar and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments in China provide strong support for the yuan [3]. - The narrowing gap between onshore, offshore spot rates, and the central parity rate suggests a potential convergence of these rates [1][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market expectations indicate that the yuan may continue to appreciate moderately against the US dollar in the second half of the year [3]. - Continuous implementation of growth-stabilizing policies is seen as a key factor in maintaining exchange rate stability [3]. - The maturity of the foreign exchange market in China, along with improved risk management services for enterprises, enhances the ability to cope with exchange rate fluctuations [3].