英镑兑美元GBP/USD向上触及1.35，日内涨0.29%。 ...

Core Point - The Russian ruble has strengthened against the US dollar, surpassing 79, marking its strongest level since June 2023 [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar has reached a significant milestone, indicating a notable appreciation [1]

Group 1 - The South Korean won appreciated by 0.11% against the US dollar, closing at 1374.74 won [1] - The won reached a daily high of 1369.35 won at 08:26 Beijing time [1]

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro has rebounded towards 1.1350 against the USD, while the GBP is challenging the 1.3500 level [1] - The JPY has fallen to its lowest level in over a week against the USD, remaining weak amid a general USD recovery [1] - The AUD has continued its negative trend, testing the 0.6430 area and breaking below the key 200-day moving average due to the strong USD [1] - The NZD, after a drop of over 1% on Tuesday, has reduced some of its losses on Wednesday [1] - The USD/CAD has shown a recovery for the third consecutive day, starting from the 1.3685 area, which is the lowest level since October 2024 [1] Group 2: Central Bank Insights - ECB Governing Council member Holzmann stated that the ECB should at least postpone further rate cuts until September [3] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda mentioned ongoing tariff negotiations, indicating uncertainty in the economic outlook [3] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its policy rate from 3.50% to 3.25%, marking the sixth consecutive cut, with expectations for at least another 25 basis points reduction [3][4] - The Westpac Bank now anticipates the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate to 3% in August instead of July [4] - Hungary has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 6.5%, aligning with market expectations [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The EUR/USD is showing a bullish bias, despite facing strong resistance at 1.1400 [7] - The GBP/USD is in an overbought state with an RSI above 70, facing support at 1.3500 and resistance at 1.3600 [7] - The AUD/USD is attempting to break through an RSI of 60.00, with potential upward targets at 0.6515 and 0.6550 [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that exchange rates are a significant factor affecting inflation and demand in emerging market economies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing a rebound, with notable movements in various currency pairs, particularly the USD/JPY which has seen a significant short-term increase [1] Currency Movements - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen by 10 points, currently standing at 99.16 [1] - The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) has decreased by 10 points, now at 1.3729 [1] - The British Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) has fallen by nearly 20 points, currently at 1.3541 [1] - The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) has increased by nearly 40 points, now at 143.16 [1]

Group 1 - The core function of currency is to facilitate the exchange of goods and services, evolving from barter systems to a widely accepted medium of exchange [4][5] - The unification of currency in ancient China, initiated by Emperor Qin Shi Huang, laid a solid foundation for economic exchange and highlighted the importance of currency as a symbol of national strength [5] - The evolution of currency into more convenient forms like paper money and coins has made transactions easier and more efficient [7] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar dominates international trade as the primary settlement currency due to the significant influence of the U.S. economy, with exchange rates reflecting the relative economic strength of countries [9] - A country's currency issuance affects its exchange rate; excessive printing can lead to devaluation, impacting purchasing power and international standing [10] - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has become the fourth most circulated currency globally, symbolizing China's economic strength and increasing influence in international markets [11][12]

Group 1 - The Singapore dollar has risen to a nearly eight-month high, with the USD/SGD exchange rate reported at 1.2825 [1] - The USD/Malaysian ringgit exchange rate has declined by over 0.6%, currently at 4.20 [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The Trump tax - cut bill barely passed in the House of Representatives and still faces challenges in the Senate. Fed理事沃勒 said the tax - cut bill triggered the selling of US Treasuries, and if tariffs stabilize, there may be an interest rate cut in the second half of the year. US May Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations and expanded, with the price index rising again. The Eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly contracted, and the service sector had its worst performance in 16 months. After the US - Japan finance ministers' meeting, the US said "no exchange - rate discussion, the current exchange rate reflects fundamentals", and Japan said "no discussion on US Treasuries". In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the equity index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Recently, the market has entered a data vacuum zone, lacking new positive or negative factors, and oscillation has become the consensus. From the futures trend, the long - and short - side forces are evenly matched. During the oscillation period, when it touches the upper or lower limit of the range, there will be short - term confrontations between the long and short sides. Without incremental information or fundamental data guidance in the short term, the oscillation pattern is expected to continue, and the market may continue to focus on spread mining [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Equity Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.05%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.1%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.7%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.81% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.0%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.0% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible oscillating operation with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 3879.60 | - 0.05 | 52835 | 143884 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2715.40 | 0.10 | 28918 | 51342 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 5614.80 | - 0.70 | 53832 | 116140 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 5950.00 | - 0.81 | 148619 | 195203 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.81 | 0.01 | 65126 | 156071 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.98 | - 0.00 | 47004 | 116615 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 30 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.52 | - 0.04 | 67554 | 82843 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.37 | - 0.00 | 34274 | 100554 | [12]

汇率应该由市场决定。 美国和日本认同，汇率的突然波动是不可取的。 日本财务省外汇事务最高官员三村淳：日本和美国并未讨论具体的汇率水平。 ...