Core Viewpoint - The current exchange rate of 1 RMB to 0.1404 USD indicates a stable RMB, influenced by domestic economic strength and international monetary policy changes [1][4][8] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The exchange rate is determined by the central bank's daily midpoint, with recent rates showing 7.0928 for the midpoint and market rates around 7.12 for onshore and 7.1253 for offshore [2][4] - The stability of the RMB is attributed to strong domestic manufacturing and consumption, alongside a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, reducing the dollar's attractiveness [4][8] Practical Implications for Consumers - For consumers, exchanging 1000 RMB yields approximately 140.4 USD, which can be used for purchasing imported goods, highlighting the practical benefits of the current exchange rate [2][4] - Recommendations for consumers include monitoring exchange rates for travel and online shopping to maximize savings, such as using USD for purchases to avoid conversion fees [5][6] Long-term Outlook - The RMB is expected to remain strong in the medium to long term due to stable domestic policies and continued foreign investment interest, despite potential geopolitical risks affecting the dollar [8] - The current exchange rate presents opportunities for consumers and investors to engage in currency exchange and international purchases effectively [8]

Core Viewpoint - The current exchange rate between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan shows slight fluctuations, with the central parity at 7.0928 and market rates at 7.1230 for onshore and 7.1253 for offshore, indicating a stable yet slightly stronger yuan [1][2][4]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The central parity rate set by the central bank reflects a reasonable level for the yuan, with a small decrease suggesting a slight strengthening of the currency [2][4]. - The onshore market rate remains stable, while the offshore rate shows a minor premium, indicating confidence in the yuan from international markets [2][4]. Economic Fundamentals - The resilience of the yuan is attributed to strong domestic economic fundamentals, including stable manufacturing and recovering consumer demand, alongside a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [4][8]. - The narrowing price gap between onshore and offshore rates suggests that foreign capital is not fleeing but rather observing the market with a degree of optimism [4][8]. Practical Tips for Currency Exchange - For individuals looking to exchange currency, it is advisable to monitor rates closely, especially one week prior to travel, to avoid significant fluctuations [6][8]. - Utilizing platforms that allow for real-time exchange rate monitoring can help consumers save on costs when purchasing imported goods or investing in dollar-denominated assets [6][8]. Long-term Outlook - The exchange rate is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the long-term outlook for the yuan remains positive due to stable domestic policies and strong export competitiveness [8]. - Individuals are encouraged to enhance their financial literacy regarding exchange rates to better navigate currency fluctuations and optimize their spending [8].

Core Insights - The current exchange rate of 1 USD to CNY is approximately 7.1227, which has significant implications for daily life and financial decisions [1][5] - Exchange rates fluctuate due to various factors, including economic health, monetary policy, and international events, making it essential for individuals to stay informed [5][8] Exchange Rate Impact on Daily Life - Exchange rate changes directly affect the value of money in hand, influencing costs for travel, overseas purchases, and investments [8][14] - For instance, converting 1000 USD at the current rate requires 7122.7 CNY, and any appreciation of the USD would increase this cost [8] Currency Exchange Strategies - Individuals can save money by comparing rates and fees across different banks and online platforms before exchanging currency [9][10] - Using credit cards for small transactions can be a convenient option, as they often provide stable exchange rates [12] Influence on Import Purchases - The cost of imported goods is affected by exchange rates; for example, a 500 USD product would cost approximately 3563.5 CNY at the current rate, but this could rise significantly if the rate changes [14] - Consumers can benefit from timing their purchases based on favorable exchange rates [14] Investment Considerations - Exchange rate fluctuations are crucial for investors, particularly those holding USD-denominated assets, as they can impact returns [15][16] - Understanding exchange rate trends can aid in making informed investment decisions and optimizing portfolios [16] Practical Tips for Consumers - Regularly monitoring exchange rates can help individuals make better financial decisions, such as when to exchange currency or purchase imported goods [17][18] - It is advisable to wait for favorable rates before making significant purchases or exchanges to minimize costs [18][19]

Core Insights - The article discusses the relationship between labor productivity, the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and exchange rates, using real GDP per capita as a measure of labor productivity to assess currency valuation and future exchange rate trends [1][2][3]. Group 1: Balassa-Samuelson Effect and Real Effective Exchange Rates - The Balassa-Samuelson effect indicates that "lagging" economies experience a continuous appreciation of their real effective exchange rates as they catch up to "developed" economies [1][3]. - From 2005 to 2015, the real effective exchange rate of the Chinese yuan appreciated, supporting the notion of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, with predictions of further appreciation in 2025 and 2026 based on OECD forecasts [1][4]. - A comparison of 15 economies' labor productivity data for 2024 reveals that the Indonesian rupiah, Swiss franc, and South African rand are overvalued by over 20%, while the Korean won, Japanese yen, and Canadian dollar are undervalued by over 20% [6][9]. Group 2: Future Exchange Rate Predictions - The analysis predicts that in the next year, the US dollar will appreciate slightly against the euro and pound, weaken against the yuan initially, and then strengthen, while it will weaken against the yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Korean won [2][10]. - The euro and pound are expected to weaken moderately against the yuan, while the yen, Korean won, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar may rebound against the yuan after short-term pressure [2][23]. - The analysis suggests that the yuan is slightly overvalued by 3.45% relative to labor productivity, indicating that the appreciation of the yuan in 2025 and 2026 may be limited [6][9]. Group 3: Labor Productivity and Currency Valuation - The article emphasizes that the Balassa-Samuelson effect provides a theoretical framework linking labor productivity to real exchange rates, which is crucial for medium to long-term exchange rate assessments [4][10]. - The analysis of labor productivity and actual effective exchange rates shows that the yuan's valuation is close to equilibrium, with slight overvaluation, while other currencies like the Canadian dollar and Japanese yen show significant undervaluation [6][9]. - The relationship between labor productivity and bilateral exchange rates indicates that the yuan may face appreciation pressures in the coming years, particularly against currencies like the euro and pound [23][24].

Core Insights - The article discusses the disparity between international gold prices and domestic gold jewelry prices, highlighting that while international gold prices have dropped, domestic prices have increased due to various cost factors [1][3]. Group 1: Understanding Gold Pricing - International gold prices refer to the raw material cost of pure gold, influenced by factors such as the US dollar exchange rate, geopolitical events, and Federal Reserve policies [3]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices include not only the raw material cost but also additional costs such as processing fees, brand premiums, and store operating costs [4]. Group 2: Factors Behind Price Increases - The increase in domestic gold jewelry prices is attributed to rising non-material costs, including processing fees, brand premiums, store costs, and taxes [5]. - Processing fees for gold jewelry have risen by 20%, with costs now ranging from 50 to 150 yuan per gram due to more complex manufacturing techniques [5]. - Brand premiums can account for 10-15% of the retail price, with well-known brands charging significantly more for similar purity items [5]. Group 3: Currency and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Domestic gold prices are also affected by currency exchange rates and supply-demand relationships, which contribute to the disconnect from international prices [6]. - The recent appreciation of the US dollar has led to a situation where even if international prices drop, the domestic price in yuan may not reflect that decrease [6]. - Seasonal demand, particularly during wedding seasons and holidays, has led to increased prices as supply struggles to meet consumer demand [6]. Group 4: Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to differentiate between "urgent needs" and "investment" when purchasing gold, focusing on raw material prices and processing fees for urgent needs [7]. - For investment purposes, it is recommended to avoid gold jewelry due to high processing fees and instead consider gold bars or coins that are closer to raw material prices [7]. - Consumers should be cautious about market timing and avoid purchasing during peak demand periods to secure better prices [7].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold latest price is $4070.00, down $99.60 [1] - London Silver latest price is $47.76, down $2.19 [1] - London Platinum latest price is $1562.00, down $64.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is $1421.00, down $63.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is $58.50, up $1.26 [1] - LME Copper latest price is $10669.00, down $0.50 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory change not provided [2] - SHFE Silver latest inventory is 691.69, down 57.67 [2] - Gold ETF latest holding is 1052.37, down 6.29 [2] - Silver ETF latest holding is 15597.61, down 79.03 [2] - SGE Silver inventory change not provided [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction change is 0.00 [2] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction change is -1.00 [2] Group 3: Other Related Data - Dollar Index latest is 98.91, down 0.06 [11] - Euro - US Dollar latest is 1.16, no change [11] - British Pound - US Dollar latest is 1.34, no change [11] - US Dollar - Japanese Yen latest is 151.97, up 0.04 [11] - US 10 - year TIPS data incomplete [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, with a midpoint exchange rate of 7.0968, is seen as beneficial for consumers, particularly for those engaging in overseas purchases and travel, while it poses challenges for export-oriented businesses [1][4]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The yuan's appreciation is attributed to stable economic performance in China, strong export data, and increased foreign investment, alongside a weakening US dollar due to uncertain Federal Reserve policies and fluctuating US Treasury yields [1][4]. - The onshore and offshore exchange rates reflect different liquidity conditions, with the onshore rate at 7.1238 and the offshore rate at 7.1298, indicating slight discrepancies influenced by global market expectations [1]. Impact on Consumers - The appreciation of the yuan allows consumers to save money on international travel and purchases, with examples showing significant savings on expenses like flights and accommodations [2][4]. - For students studying abroad, the lower exchange rate reduces the financial burden on families sending remittances for tuition and living expenses [4]. Challenges for Exporters - Export businesses face difficulties as the stronger yuan means they receive less in local currency when converting foreign earnings, which may impact their competitiveness [4]. - Individuals holding US dollar savings may find it less advantageous to convert to yuan at this time, although the long-term outlook suggests the yuan's appreciation may enhance its value retention [4]. Practical Tips for Consumers - Consumers are encouraged to monitor exchange rates regularly and utilize various platforms for currency exchange to maximize savings [5]. - Strategies such as splitting currency exchanges and using international payment apps can help mitigate risks associated with fluctuating exchange rates [5]. Long-term Outlook - The medium-term forecast suggests the yuan will remain stable within the range of 7.0 to 7.2, contingent on global economic recovery and domestic policy stability, while potential US interest rate hikes could lead to a rebound in the dollar [7]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism regarding the yuan's performance, with recommendations for consumers to balance their currency holdings to manage risks effectively [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery product 3.9m 30+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat compared to last week, while in Jiangsu it increased by 5 yuan/cubic meter. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the futures market shows a high - level correction this week [4][17] - The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 3.09 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with different trends in each port's inventory and daily shipment volume [6][11] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - For 3.9m 30+ radiata pine, Shandong's quote was 765 yuan/cubic meter (unchanged from last week), and Jiangsu's was 770 yuan/cubic meter (up 5 yuan/cubic meter). The 3.9m 40+ radiata pine in Shandong was priced at 850 yuan/cubic meter (unchanged), and the 5.9m 30+ radiata pine was 805 yuan/cubic meter (up 20 yuan/cubic meter). European spruce and fir in Jiangsu are in short supply [4] - As of October 5, there were 7 ships departing from New Zealand in October, 6 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 for unloading in Taiwan, China and South Korea. It is expected that 7 ships will arrive in October and 0 in November, with an expected arrival volume of 1.34 million cubic meters in October [5] - As of the week of September 26, the daily shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 1.72 million cubic meters (down 0.36 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port was 1.44 million cubic meters (up 0.18 million cubic meters week - on - week). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1558 million cubic meters (up 1.50 million cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port had about 0.4394 million cubic meters (down 3.75 million cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou had about 0.3050 million cubic meters (up 1.45 million cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port had about 0.1235 million cubic meters (down 2.29 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0237 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][11] - As of the week of October 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1936 points, up 35 points (+1.8%) from last week. The related Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was 873, up 0.6% from last week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, up 4.1% from last week. The US dollar index fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.129, up 0.13% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate rose 0.2% to 1.723 [6][56] 2. Supply - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows 7 ships departing in October, with details of their departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [8] 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 26, the daily shipment volume and inventory of different ports showed different trends. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 3.09 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The data also shows the inventory and changes of different tree species in each port [11][12] 4. Market Trends - As of October 10, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 821 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.6% from last week. The market showed a high - level correction this week, and the monthly spread changes were small [17] 5. Price and Spread - Spot price data of different tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are provided, including 3.9m 30+ radiata pine, 3.9m 40+ radiata pine, etc., along with their price changes compared to last week and four weeks ago [21] - The regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications are presented, such as 3.9m 30+ radiata pine, 3.9m 40+ radiata pine, etc. [23][28][32] - The price differences between different tree species and specifications are also shown, like the difference between 3.9m 30+ radiata pine and 3.9m 40+ radiata pine [40][42][44] 6. Other - Other price influencing factors include freight rates and exchange rates. The dry bulk BDI, Handysize BHSI, crude oil BDTI, and SCFI all had different changes compared to last week and four weeks ago. The US dollar to RMB and US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rates also changed [55][56]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the undervaluation of the RMB in terms of real purchasing power and highlights the dominance of the RMB in international physical trade, despite its limited role in global settlement [1][2]. Group 1: RMB and International Trade - The RMB has become the primary currency in international physical trade, but this trade only accounts for 5% of international settlements, indicating that financial transactions are more significant [2]. - The article suggests that the U.S. has faced challenges due to its financial practices, which have led to a decline in its industrial capabilities and a reliance on foreign manufacturing [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Financial Practices - The U.S. has historically used financial strategies, such as aggressive interest rate hikes, to maintain its economic dominance, which has adversely affected its manufacturing sector [8]. - The article argues that the U.S. financial system is unsustainable, as it relies on continuous global financial crises to sustain high growth rates [12][14]. Group 3: RMB Internationalization - The offshore RMB market has remained stable, fluctuating between 1.5 to 2 trillion, while foreign reserves have consistently been around 3 trillion, raising questions about the management of RMB internationalization [19]. - The article posits that if desired, foreign reserves could exceed 6 trillion, and increasing the offshore RMB scale to around 10 trillion is a conservative estimate [20]. Group 4: Manufacturing Focus - The article emphasizes that the primary goal should be to dominate global manufacturing, suggesting that the current dollar dominance is beneficial for this strategy [24]. - It highlights that the approach is not about immediate victories but rather about strategically undermining foreign manufacturing at the right moment [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current bond market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The economic data shows that the pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" may continue, and the foundation for the recovery of effective demand is not yet solid. The weak fundamentals provide some support for the current bond market. However, in an environment lacking incremental positive news, the market is sensitive to negative news, and the uncertainty of the new regulations for public bond funds continues to disrupt the market. It is expected that treasury bond futures will continue the pattern of weak oscillation in the short term. Strategically, a band - trading approach is recommended for unilateral operations, and attention should be paid to the reverse - arbitrage opportunities after significant adjustments in long - term bonds [103]. 3. Summary Based on the Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Policy and Regulation - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain overseas rare - earth items. Specific overseas exporters must obtain export licenses from the Ministry of Commerce before exporting to other countries and regions outside China. Export applications to overseas military users, importers, and end - users on the export control list and the watch list are generally not approved. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, proposing measures such as researching and evaluating industry average costs, strengthening price supervision, and standardizing tendering and bidding behaviors [9]. Fundamentals - **Domestic**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday this year, the domestic consumer market showed good growth. Domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The average daily sales revenue of consumption - related industries nationwide increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Among them, commodity consumption and service consumption increased by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively year - on - year, and digital products and automobile consumption grew rapidly. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the manufacturing sentiment continued to improve; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, remaining at the critical point, indicating that the overall non - manufacturing business volume was stable [9]. - **Overseas**: On October 9 local time, a bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to get enough votes in the Senate. Affected by the government shutdown, important macro - data such as the US non - farm payrolls for September were postponed. The US ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in September, far lower than the expected increase of 50,000. A senior Hamas official announced a cease - fire agreement, stating that Hamas had received guarantees from mediators including the US that "the Gaza war is over" [10]. Exchange Rate - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1048, with a cumulative increase of 7 basis points this week [10]. Capital - This week, the central bank conducted 102.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market, with 266.33 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 164.23 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.42% [10]. Summary - The yields of treasury bond cash bonds varied this week. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds changed by - 1.5 - 0.01bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds changed by about - 0.8bp and 0.4bp respectively, reaching 1.78% and 2.13%. Treasury bond futures also showed mixed performance. The main contracts of TS and TL fell by 0.02% and 0.03% respectively, while the main contracts of TF and T rose by 0.00% and 0.09% respectively [10]. 3.2 Market Review Weekly Data - The main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL2512) fell by 0.03%, with a trading volume of 57.9847 million; the main contract of 10 - year treasury bond futures (T2512) rose by 0.09%, with a trading volume of 40.07 million; the main contract of 5 - year treasury bond futures (TF2512) had a 0.00% change, with a trading volume of 29.3581 million; the main contract of 2 - year treasury bond futures (TS2512) fell by 0.02%, with a trading volume of 14.9342 million. The prices of the top two CTD bonds also had different changes [12]. Treasury Bond Futures Market Review - The trading volumes and open interests of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased [31]. 3.3 News Review and Analysis - On October 9, the latest data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that from January to August this year, the added value of industrial small and medium - sized enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the export index of small and medium - sized enterprises was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced that during the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the national culture and tourism market was generally stable and orderly. The number of domestic tourist trips reached 888 million, an increase of 123 million compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024, and domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments adjusted the technical requirements for the exemption of new energy vehicle purchase tax from 2026 - 2027. - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain overseas rare - earth items and related technologies and included 14 foreign entities in the unreliable entity list. - A senior Hamas official announced a cease - fire agreement. - A bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to pass in the Senate, and US President Trump planned to cut some federal projects favored by Democrats [34][35][36]. 3.4 Chart Analysis Spread Changes - The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year treasury bond yields and the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bond yields oscillated. The spread between the main contracts of 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bond futures and the spread between the main contracts of 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures slightly widened. The inter - term spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures oscillated, the inter - term spread of 5 - year treasury bond futures narrowed, and the inter - term spread of 2 - year treasury bond futures oscillated [42][51][55]. Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes - The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T - bond futures main contract increased [68]. Interest Rate Changes - The overnight, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined, while the 1 - week Shibor rate increased. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.42%. The yields of treasury bond cash bonds varied. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds changed by - 1.5 - 0.01bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds changed by about - 0.8bp and 0.4bp respectively, reaching 1.78% and 2.13%. The spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bond yields slightly widened, and the spread between Chinese and US 30 - year treasury bond yields slightly narrowed [72][76]. Central Bank Open Market Operations - This week, the central bank conducted 102.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market, with 266.33 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 164.23 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.42% [81]. Bond Issuance and Maturity - This week, the bond issuance was 29.9541 billion yuan, the total repayment was 28.6595 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1.2946 billion yuan [85]. Market Sentiment - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1048, with a cumulative increase of 7 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds oscillated, and the VIX index increased. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds in China decreased, and the A - share risk premium slightly decreased [88][94][100]. 3.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: During the "National Day" holiday, consumption grew steadily, with the average daily sales revenue of the consumer market increasing by 4.5% year - on - year. In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, and the manufacturing sentiment slightly improved; the non - manufacturing PMI fell back to the critical point, and the overall production and business activities remained in the expansion range. Affected by the low base, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in August improved significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 21.5%, but the sustainability remains to be observed. Overall, the fundamentals are in a weak recovery rhythm, and although the manufacturing sentiment has improved marginally, it is still in the contraction range. - **Overseas**: The US government has been in a shutdown due to the repeated failure of the appropriation bill to pass, and many key economic data such as the non - farm payrolls for September have been postponed. The market lacks clear guidance in the short term. However, the US ADP employment unexpectedly decreased in September, far lower than the expected increase, and the employment market suddenly cooled down. The market has increased its bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025. - **Market Outlook**: The current bond market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is expected that treasury bond futures will continue the pattern of weak oscillation in the short term. - **Strategy**: A band - trading approach is recommended for unilateral operations, and attention should be paid to the reverse - arbitrage opportunities after significant adjustments in long - term bonds [103].