Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The coking coal and coke markets are in a low - level oscillation. Short - term demand recovery is difficult to absorb the increasing supply, and the short - term short - selling space for coking coal and coke is limited. It is advisable to try shorting at high levels in the far - month contracts [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - The Jm2505 contract closed at 1001.5, down 0.64% from the previous trading day's close. The J2505 contract closed at 1636.5, down 0.7% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session of the previous day, the Jm2505 contract closed at 996.5, down 0.5% from the daily session close, and the J2505 contract closed at 1632.0, down 0.27% from the daily session close [1]. Important News - The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", proposing to speed up the construction of key - area markets, promote the construction of important commodity spot and futures markets, and develop trading markets for oil, gas, coal, etc. in an orderly manner [1]. - On April 2, local time, US President Trump announced "reciprocal tariff" measures on trading partners, imposing a 34% reciprocal tariff on China, 20% on the EU, and 24% on Japan [1]. - This week, the average tax - included cost of steel billets for mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2946 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of 3050 yuan/ton for common billets on April 2, the average profit of steel mills is 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. - This week, the operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants nationwide is 60.77%, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous period; the daily average output is 51.82 tons, a decrease of 0.42 tons; the raw coal inventory is 279.13 tons, an increase of 7.64 tons; the clean coal inventory is 191.80 tons, a decrease of 22.12 tons [1]. Market Logic The main contracts of coking coal and coke declined slightly. Demand data has improved in the past two weeks, and the spot price has also rebounded. However, the overall supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Short - term demand recovery is difficult to absorb the continuous increase in supply. The near - month contracts are close to the warehouse - receipt cost, with relatively limited fluctuation space. Both long and short sides are gradually shifting positions to the 09 contracts [1]. Trading Strategy The short - term short - selling space for coking coal and coke is limited. It is advisable to try shorting at high levels in the far - month contracts [1].

Group 1: Tariff Policy - The U.S. has implemented a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on trade partners, with higher tariffs on specific countries, effective April 5 and April 9 [1] - The "reciprocal tariffs" include 34% on China, 20% on the EU, and varying rates on other countries such as 46% on Vietnam and 49% on Cambodia [1] - Certain goods, including steel, aluminum, and specific minerals, are exempt from these tariffs [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the tariffs, U.S. stock futures dropped significantly, with Nasdaq futures down over 4% and S&P 500 futures down over 3% [2] - The S&P 500 index has seen a cumulative decline of approximately 6.4% in the first 50 trading days of Trump's second term, marking one of the worst performances since 1950 [2] - Asian markets also reacted negatively, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropping 1.91% at the open [2] Group 3: Economic Impact - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has revised the U.S. GDP forecast for Q1 2025 down to -3.7%, indicating a worsening economic outlook [3] - The American Retail Federation warns that tariffs will be passed on to consumers, negatively impacting millions of U.S. businesses [3] - Piper Sandler predicts that tariffs will increase U.S. inflation by 2.6 percentage points and lead to a 1% annualized contraction in the economy over the next three months [3] Group 4: International Response - International criticism of U.S. protectionism is growing, with various countries expressing opposition to the tariff policies [4] - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized that the U.S. should address its own issues rather than blaming others, warning that such actions could disrupt global markets [5] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that their governments are preparing countermeasures against U.S. tariffs [5]

特朗普又搞出大动静了！就在当地时间4月2日，特朗普在白宫签署两项关于"对等关税"的行政令，这一消息犹如一颗重磅炸弹，瞬间在全球经济领域掀起了 惊涛骇浪！ 特朗普宣布，美国将对贸易伙伴设立10%的"最低基准关税"，同时还会对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税。他展示的图表里，那一排排税率看得人触目惊心：对 中国征收34%的对等关税 ，对欧盟实施20%的对等关税，对巴西、英国征收10%的关税，对瑞士征收31%的关税，对印度征收26%的关税，对韩国征收25% 的关税，对日本征收24%的关税，对印尼征收32%的关税，对泰国征收36%的关税，对越南征收46%的关税，对柬埔寨征收49%的关税……这几乎是对全球 主要贸易伙伴来了个"全覆盖打击" 。 不仅如此，特朗普还宣称，从3日开始，美国将对所有外国制造的进口汽车征收25%的关税，涵盖汽车、轻型卡车、发 动机、变速器、锂离子电池以及轮胎、减震器和火花塞电线等零部件 。令人意外的是，连所有进口电脑，包括笔记本和台式电脑，都被纳入其中，税率为 4%。白宫表示，10%的基准关税4月5日生效，对不同贸易伙伴的更高关税4月9日生效 。 。 经济学家们纷纷发出警告，这一政策就像一颗"经济毒丸" ...

Group 1: Tariff Implementation - Trump will impose an additional 10% base tariff effective April 5, citing foreign trade practices as a national emergency[3] - Countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S. will face higher personalized tariffs, with the EU at 20% and China at 34%[3] - A comprehensive 25% tariff on imported cars will be enacted immediately, alongside the cancellation of the $800 de minimis exemption starting May 2[3] Group 2: Potential Negotiations and Exemptions - Trump indicated that tariffs could be reduced if trade partners take corrective measures to align with U.S. interests[4] - There is a likelihood of exemptions for certain countries, as Canada and Mexico are not included in the new tariffs due to USMCA compliance[5] - Previous negotiations suggest that some countries may receive tariff reductions, indicating a potential for lower actual enforcement of tariffs[5] Group 3: Impact on China and Domestic Policy - The effective tariff rate on Chinese exports to the U.S. could exceed 60%, significantly impacting trade volumes[6] - If implemented, U.S. exports to China may decline by over 30%, leading to a total export drop of more than 4.5% and a GDP growth reduction of over 1.3 percentage points[6] - Domestic policies may be introduced to counteract potential economic impacts, focusing on increasing domestic demand and fiscal measures[6] Group 4: Market Reactions - The announcement of tariffs has led to a decline in U.S. stock futures and a drop in 10-year Treasury yields, nearing 4.0%[7] - Gold prices have surged, approaching $3200 per ounce, reflecting increased market uncertainty and risk aversion[7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated and strengthened. Expectations of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, OPEC's announced supplementary production cuts, and low inventory levels supported absolute prices. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories increased. US gasoline apparent demand decreased week - on - week and was flat year - on - year. Gasoline cracking rebounded slightly, domestic independent refinery profits declined, and refinery operations continued to rebound while major refinery operations declined. OPEC and tightened sanctions on Iran led to supply tightening expectations. Recently, refinery profits recovered, and global gasoline profit expectations improved. Starting from April, refinery operations will increase, and the demand side is moderately positive, but there are still uncertainties in the macro - aspect. The US tariff policy on April 2nd had a significant impact. If the oil price is below $60, it will weaken non - OPEC production. This week, the contango of the three - market crude oil fluctuated and strengthened. Absolute inventory and peak - season expectations supported near - end prices, but under the pattern of continuous OPEC production increase, absolute prices will still face pressure in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to changes in Iran's exports and production [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From March 27 to April 2, WTI increased by $0.51 to $71.71, BRENT increased by $0.46 to $74.95, and DUBAI increased by $0.65 to $76.56. SC decreased by 3.90 to 552.20, and OMAN decreased by 1.13 to 74.26. Other related products such as gasoline, diesel, and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Daily News - On April 2, US President Trump signed two executive orders on so - called "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House, announcing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and higher tariffs on some trading partners. The benchmark tariff rate will take effect at 0:00 on April 5, and the reciprocal tariff will take effect at 0:00 on April 9. Goods under the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement will continue to be tariff - exempt, and the tariff on non - compliant goods will remain at 25% [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent met with 16 multinational banks and federal law enforcement agencies in Washington on Wednesday to discuss US sanctions policies against Iran, including measures to reduce Iran's oil exports. He said the Trump administration is maximizing economic pressure to disrupt Iran's access to financial resources [3]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: For the week ending March 28, US EIA crude oil inventory was 616500 barrels (expected - 211600 barrels, previous value - 334100 barrels), EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was 237300 barrels (previous value - 75500 barrels), EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 28500 barrels (previous value 28600 barrels), EIA gasoline inventory was - 155100 barrels (expected - 172000 barrels, previous value - 144600 barrels), EIA refined oil inventory was 26400 barrels (expected - 101300 barrels, previous value - 42100 barrels), and EIA refinery utilization rate was 86% (expected 87.7%, previous value 87%) [4]. - This week (March 20), the operating rate of major refineries decreased, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel decreased. The production of major refineries' gasoline and diesel decreased, while that of local refineries increased. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries' gasoline and diesel increased. This week, gasoline inventory increased by 0.37%, and diesel inventory decreased by 1.28%. Major refineries' comprehensive profit decreased month - on - month, and local refineries' comprehensive profit also decreased month - on - month [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on trade partners, signing an executive order to impose these tariffs on multiple countries [4] - The Central Committee and State Council of China issued opinions to improve the price governance mechanism, aiming to create a competitive market environment and prevent undue government intervention in price formation [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that software product revenue reached 425.3 billion yuan in the first two months, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [5] Group 2 - The State Administration for Market Regulation approved the national standard for "Aging-Friendly Design Guidelines for Household Products," set to be implemented on September 1, 2025, focusing on safety, usability, comfort, and smart features for elderly users [6] - The Shenzhen Municipal Party Secretary emphasized the importance of innovation in the gold and jewelry industry, promoting digital transformation and the integration of technology and culture [7] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association reported that the industrial silicon market remains subdued, with a slight production increase in March but overall demand expected to decrease [10] Group 3 - Guizhou Moutai projected a net profit of 86.2 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.38%, and plans to distribute a dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares [12] - Nanda Optoelectronics reported a 28.15% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, proposing a stock split and dividend distribution [16] - New Hope projected a 90.05% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with an expected profit of 430 million to 500 million yuan for the first quarter of 2025 [22] Group 4 - The China Securities Index Company announced the upcoming release of several new indices in April 2025, aimed at providing more investment options [8] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange reported that the number of new A-share accounts opened in March reached 3.0655 million, a 26.67% increase compared to March 2024 [9] - The market sentiment remains cautious regarding industrial silicon, with expectations of a supply-demand reduction and high inventory levels [10] Group 5 - Galaxy Securities highlighted the growth potential in the smart home sector, driven by policy support and advancements in AI technology, with global spending expected to reach $125 billion in 2024 [29] - CITIC Securities noted rapid progress in China's controllable nuclear fusion projects, with significant advancements in key projects and potential commercial applications [30] - Huatai Securities identified three main opportunities in the carbon pricing cycle, focusing on the revaluation of utility companies, green energy, and the growing demand for carbon-related certification [31]

首席点评： 对等关税落地，利空暂时兑现 据央视报道，美国白宫发表声明称，特朗普将对所有国家征收10%的"基准关税"，该关税将 于美国东部时间4月5日凌晨0时01分生效。此外，特朗普将对美国贸易逆差最大的国家征收 个性化的更高"对等关税"，该关税将于美国东部时间4月9日凌晨0时01分生效，所有其他国 家将继续遵守原有的10%关税基准。声明表示，一些商品将不受"对等关税"的约束，其中包 括已经受第232条关税约束的钢铝制品、汽车和汽车零部件、可能受未来第232条关税约束的 商品以及美国没有的能源和其他某些矿物。此外，金条、铜、药品、半导体和木材制品也不 受"对等关税"的约束。声明还表示，对于加拿大和墨西哥，符合《美墨加贸易协定》的商品 将继续获得豁免。 重点品种： 股指、原油、黄金 股指： 特朗普全面征收关税，美股盘后大幅下跌，A50跟跌，上一交易日股指涨跌分化，纺织服饰板块 领涨，国防军工板块领跌，全市成交额0.99万亿元，其中IH2504下跌0.18%，IF2504下跌0.08%，IC2504 上涨0.24%，IM2504上涨0.50%。资金方面，4月1日融资余额减少47.64亿元至19027.99亿元。4月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of President Trump's announcement of a new round of "reciprocal tariffs," which raises the actual tariff rate on mainland China to 54%, exceeding market expectations of 10% [1][2]. Tariff Details - The tariffs on China are based on the existing 20% tariff, resulting in an effective rate of 54%, which is higher than the previously anticipated 10% [2]. - The reciprocal tariffs will affect several regions, with significant impacts on mainland China (34%), the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and Southeast Asian countries [2]. - Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars, effective April 3, but did not mention any additional tariffs related to value-added tax [2]. Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, U.S. stock futures dropped sharply, with the Nasdaq 100 futures falling over 3% [3]. - European assets initially rose but then retreated after the tariff announcement, while the euro and eurozone sovereign bond yields increased before declining [3][4]. - The offshore RMB weakened slightly, reaching 7.3, while gold prices remained strong despite fluctuations in the dollar [4]. Future Considerations - The article suggests that the displayed tariff differences may indicate a potential endpoint for U.S. tariff policy, but the actual execution may fall short of verbal communications [4]. - The market's fear regarding tariffs may have peaked, but uncertainty remains, particularly concerning the outcomes of U.S.-China negotiations [5]. - Observations should focus on the shift in U.S.-China relations from "sanction-counter-sanction" to "managing differences-risk prevention," as this will continue to influence asset prices [5].

Group 1: Trade Policy Impact - The new "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by Trump raises the actual tariff rate on China to 54%, slightly above market expectations, with significant impacts on the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and several Southeast Asian countries [1] - The policy may represent a temporary "endpoint" for U.S. tariff increases, with future execution potentially weaker than verbal communications, necessitating close monitoring of policy implementation and new developments [1] - Observations on U.S.-China relations should focus on the shift from "sanctions-counter-sanctions" to "managing differences-risk prevention," as uncertainty continues to affect asset prices [1] Group 2: Price Governance Mechanism - The recent opinion from the Central Committee and State Council emphasizes that prices determined by the market should be left to market forces, which is expected to lead to more accurate price reflections of supply and demand [2] - The opinion outlines arrangements for price mechanisms in energy, public utilities, agricultural products, public services, and data elements, serving as a foundation for macroeconomic governance [2] - Aiming for a price target around "2%", the market-oriented pricing mechanism is anticipated to promote moderate price recovery [2] Group 3: Public Utilities and Environmental Sector - The deepening of price reforms and improvement of governance mechanisms are expected to lead to more market-oriented pricing in public utilities such as electricity, water, and gas [3] - Large hydropower, currently with low marketization and significantly below industry averages, is likely to benefit from price adjustments, leading to increased electricity prices and revenues [3] - The water and gas sectors, facing serious price transmission delays, may see improvements in overall returns and stability as pricing adjustment mechanisms are enhanced [3] Group 4: Property Management Services - The anticipated introduction of strong price limits for property management fees in Chongqing in 2023 is not expected to set a nationwide trend, with a focus on encouraging quality services at reasonable prices [6] - The property service sector is currently facing multiple challenges, including weak fundamentals and declining growth rates, but is expected to have significant upward potential as policies shift [6] - Property service companies are viewed as having a notable safety margin, making them attractive to investors [6] Group 5: Debt Market Dynamics - The shift towards ultra-long government bonds and rising interest rates since 2025 have increased interest rate risks for banks, particularly those relying on bond investments for profit [7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a sharp decline in bond investment returns due to rising rates, putting pressure on net profits [7] - Banks may be forced to sell long-term bonds in response to interest rate risks, which could negatively impact the long-term bond market in the second quarter of 2025 [7] Group 6: Consumer Goods Sector Outlook - The consumer goods sector experienced a weak demand trend in the first quarter of 2025, influenced by the staggered impact of the Spring Festival and limited improvement in terminal demand [9] - Despite cost pressures from rising prices of certain raw materials, the overall cost of most materials remains favorable, providing some relief [9] - The second quarter of 2025 is expected to see a recovery in consumer goods revenue due to a low base and demand resurgence, with specific opportunities in the dairy, beverage, and snack sectors [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has implemented a "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a 10% minimum baseline tariff on trade partners, which is expected to cause significant international market turbulence and potentially accelerate global economic recession [1][7]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The new tariffs will take effect on April 5, with a 10% tariff applied to all trade partners, and higher tariffs for certain partners [1]. - There were significant internal disagreements within the U.S. government regarding the specifics of the tariff implementation, including exemptions for "strategic allies" and targeted industries [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. Labor Department estimates that the new tariffs could raise the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) by approximately 2.3 percentage points, counteracting the effects of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [7]. - Reuters predicts that the Federal Reserve may need to urgently cut interest rates by 50 basis points in June to address inflationary pressures caused by the tariffs [8]. - Bloomberg analysis indicates that the tariffs could increase global supply chain costs by 40%, forcing multinational companies to restructure their production networks [9]. Group 3: Trade Fairness and Multilateralism - The U.S. claims that the "reciprocal tariffs" aim to reduce trade deficits and address unfair trade practices, but analysts argue that this approach is rooted in a zero-sum game mentality and promotes protectionism [10][12]. - The World Trade Organization (WTO) data shows that developing countries face higher average tariffs from the U.S. compared to its own rates, suggesting that the "reciprocal" approach may hinder industrial development in these nations [13]. - The unilateral nature of the U.S. tariff policy undermines the multilateral trading system and the core principles of the WTO, potentially leading to a breakdown in global trade cooperation [14].