Report Summary Core Views - In April, both sides of foreign exchange settlement and sales volume increased, with the scale of settlement and sales rising simultaneously, and the overall deficit slightly expanding. The significant growth of forward net settlement reflects the improvement of enterprises' settlement expectations and more proactive hedging behavior [3]. - The US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the Federal Reserve maintained a wait - and - see stance. After the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor, the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate increased [3]. Data Core Highlights Foreign Exchange Market Supply - Demand Structure - In April 2025, the bank foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit was $4.257 billion, slightly expanding from the previous value of - $1.967 billion. The scale of both settlement and sales increased, indicating higher activity in enterprises' foreign exchange transactions. The surplus of bank customer - related foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded from $96 million to $589.3 million, while the deficit of banks' own foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded from - $2.063 billion to - $10.15 billion [4]. - The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose 0.34% month - on - month, and the market trading activity declined slightly, with the average spot inquiry trading volume falling to $42.234 billion [4]. Forward Transaction Structure - In April, the forward market continued to recover. The forward settlement signing amount increased by $4.358 billion month - on - month, and the forward sales signing amount decreased by $2.193 billion, driving the cumulative outstanding forward net settlement amount to expand from $903 million to $5.231 billion. The forward purchase performance amount increased by $7.519 billion, much higher than the increase in settlement performance [5]. - The forward settlement hedging ratio rose to 8.59%, the highest point this year, while the forward purchase hedging ratio dropped to 4.3% [5]. Securities Investment - In April, the foreign - related receipts and payments under securities investment changed from a surplus of $7.37 billion to a deficit of $12.493 billion. The trading volumes of both the Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased, and the two - way difference narrowed. However, the bond custody volume of overseas investors in RMB bonds rose to 29,781.5 billion yuan [6]. Goods Trade - In April, the goods trade surplus narrowed, dragging down the foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 52 in March to 50.8 in April, and China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, returning to the contraction range. The US manufacturing PMI remained at 51.2, while Japan and the Eurozone were still in the contraction range [6]. Exchange Rate Views - The US inflation shows an initial slowdown trend, but the Fed maintains a cautious policy stance. The US core CPI in April fell to 2.8% year - on - year, and the PPI also declined month - on - month. However, the Fed did not adjust its policy, and the US dollar index fell to around 100 [8]. - The easing of tariffs boosted expectations, and the exchange rate fluctuated more after the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor. In May, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated around 7.20. After the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor, the exchange rate was more driven by market supply and demand, and the short - term fluctuation range increased. The 1 - year USDCNY swap point dropped to - 2160, and the RMB exchange rate may show a two - way shock pattern in the short term [8].

Core Viewpoint - In April, despite extreme tariff pressures, the RMB exchange rate quickly stabilized and rebounded after a brief adjustment, while the multilateral exchange rate continued to weaken. The passive appreciation of the RMB under a weak dollar index should not be overly concerning [3][5][6]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - In April, the RMB exchange rate initially fell due to the impact of Trump's tariffs but rebounded quickly, with the onshore RMB rate at 7.2632 and offshore RMB rate at 7.2689 by the end of the month, reflecting a depreciation of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively compared to the previous month [5][6]. - The RMB nominal effective exchange rate index fell by 2.2% in April, which was greater than the 1.4% decline in the dollar index, indicating a broader weakening of the RMB against other currencies [6][7]. - The RMB's actual effective exchange rate weakened due to inflation differentials, which helps maintain the price competitiveness of Chinese exports [7]. Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital continued to show net inflows, with a historical high of $630 billion in goods trade surplus in April, despite pressures in securities investment [10][11]. - In April, foreign investment in domestic bonds increased by $109 billion, indicating a strong interest in RMB-denominated assets, supported by effective government measures [11][12]. - The net outflow in securities investment was $125 billion, but this was less than the average monthly outflow of $284 billion from October 2024 to January 2025, suggesting limited pressure on cross-border capital outflows [11][12]. Group 3: Market Responses and Government Actions - The Chinese government implemented a series of financial support policies and counter-tariff measures, which helped stabilize market expectations and maintain foreign investment interest in RMB assets [12][10]. - The Central Huijin Investment Company announced plans to increase holdings in ETFs and quality stocks, reinforcing market confidence [12]. - The willingness of market participants to settle foreign exchange transactions increased, with a surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements rising from $63 billion to $166 billion in April [16][17].

2025年5月21日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1937，上调（人民币贬值）6点； 欧元/人民币报8.1265，上调455点； 港元/人民币报0.91889，下调5.2点； 英镑/人民币报9.6436，上调323点； 澳元/人民币报4.6278，下调178点； 加元/人民币报5.1780，上调210点； 100日元/人民币报4.9908，上调217点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.2073，上调286点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.2733，上调34点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59487，下调15点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7012，上调868点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5638，上调55点。 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes import profits, internal - external price differences, and trading strategies across multiple industries including agriculture, energy, metals, and precious metals. It also considers the impacts of tariffs, supply - demand, and exchange rates on these factors [1][3]. Group 3: Industry - Specific Summaries Agriculture - **Cotton**: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the relationship between domestic and foreign cotton markets has changed. After tariff cuts, the strength of Zhengzhou cotton and US cotton has reversed. Continued attention to tariff policy changes is recommended [1]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: These commodities have a high import dependency. Their international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports, and the focus should be on the difference in domestic and foreign supply - demand rhythms [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore are increasing, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. With strong overseas macro - disturbances and relatively stable domestic macro - conditions, the ore price center has declined, and there are fewer short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - run, the global supply - demand balance is more surplus compared to the Chinese market [1]. Energy - **SC**: The internal - external price relationship is weakening. - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external relationship remains weak, and the internal - external price difference of FU09 is compressing. - **LU**: The external crack spread basis has rebounded, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the internal - external relationship is strengthening. - **PG**: After tariff relaxation, the external price has risen. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly [1]. - **PX**: Domestic PX operating rates have declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has converged significantly, and the valuation is becoming neutral, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Metals - **Aluminum**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - **Tin**: As overseas and Myanmar mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities. The LME inventory has been low recently. - **Zinc**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price, and the internal - external price ratio has dropped rapidly. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali - supported gold consumption in India have also contributed to this decline. - **Silver**: The spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3].

Core Viewpoint - The interbank foreign exchange market shows fluctuations in the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rates against various currencies, indicating a mixed trend in currency valuation as of May 20, 2025 [1] Exchange Rate Summary - The USD/RMB rate is reported at 7.1931, an increase of 15 points, indicating a depreciation of the RMB against the USD [1] - The EUR/RMB rate stands at 8.0810, up by 260 points, reflecting a stronger Euro against the RMB [1] - The HKD/RMB rate is at 0.91941, down by 4.4 points, suggesting a slight strengthening of the RMB against the HKD [1] - The GBP/RMB rate is reported at 9.6113, an increase of 337 points, indicating a depreciation of the RMB against the GBP [1] - The AUD/RMB rate is at 4.6456, up by 293 points, showing a weaker RMB against the AUD [1] - The CAD/RMB rate is at 5.1570, down by 39 points, indicating a stronger RMB against the CAD [1] - The JPY/RMB rate is reported at 4.9691, up by 98 points, reflecting a weaker RMB against the JPY [1] - The RMB/RUB rate is at 11.1787, down by 625 points, indicating a significant depreciation of the RMB against the RUB [1] - The NZD/RMB rate is at 4.2699, up by 277 points, suggesting a weaker RMB against the NZD [1] - The RMB/MYR rate is at 0.59637, down by 1.8 points, indicating a stronger RMB against the MYR [1] - The CHF/RMB rate is reported at 8.6144, down by 101 points, reflecting a stronger RMB against the CHF [1] - The SGD/RMB rate is at 5.5583, up by 110 points, indicating a weaker RMB against the SGD [1]

1. 会谈声明超出预期，利好中国经济与金融市场：调整后的30%关税与4月份之前水平相近，使得出口商、进口商以及 终端消费者更易分摊成本以消化关税压力。 来源：德银研究 3. 中国经济增长预测有进一步上调的空间：随着关税政策的更新，熊奕预计今年中国经济增长或有上调的空间，具体 调整幅度仍将取决于未来双方对话的进展与合作成果。熊奕指出，尽管此前关税大幅上调，但中国4月份出口依然保 持强劲韧性。如今大部分关税已暂停，预计关税对出口增长的实际影响将远低于预期。展望未来，有三个关键事件值 得重点关注。其一，中美是否能持续开展双边对话，从而进一步缓和紧张局势；其二，贸易缓和能否对中国商业和消 费者信心产生积极影响，毕竟在贸易紧张局势升级前，相关市场信心已呈现改善态势；其三，七月份90天暂停期结束 后的走势将如何发展。 经过两天坦诚、富有建设性的高层会谈，中美双方已达成重要共识，将大幅缓和经贸紧张局势。 4. 短期内，政策面的宽松环境仍将持续 ：中国人民银行将继续实施上周公布的宽松措施。财政部预计也将在未来几个 月加速国债发行节奏并加大财政支出力度。预计政府可能会在年中之前评估经济表现并动态调整政策，进而决定是否 需要修订 ...

Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all rose in the week of May 16, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.7, up 0.17% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket RMB index at 102.36, up 0.2%; and the SDR currency basket RMB index at 91.42, up 0.31% [1][2] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2103, appreciating by 358 points or 0.49% for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.2098, appreciating by 304 points or 0.42% [5] - The RMB's middle rate against the USD was reported at 7.1938, with a cumulative increase of 157 points or 0.22% for the week [5] Market Analysis - Analysts noted that the recent US-China trade talks led to significant consensus, providing support for the RMB exchange rate, while the middle rate remained relatively stable [5] - The RMB's depreciation pressure has significantly eased, and further appreciation will depend on future policy guidance [6] - Changes in exporters' foreign exchange settlement behavior will be crucial for the RMB exchange rate, as companies have retained substantial high-interest USD deposits [6] International Credit Ratings - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increased government debt and interest payment ratios, marking a loss of the highest rating across all three major international credit rating agencies [7] Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index for May was reported at 50.8, below expectations of 53.4 [7] - The US April PPI year-on-year rate was 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5% [7] Financial Policies - The Chinese government has introduced new policies to accelerate the construction of a technology finance system, focusing on venture capital, monetary credit, capital markets, and technology insurance [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the major asset restructuring management measures for listed companies, introducing several new regulatory frameworks [10]

Report Overview - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. - Report Type: Financial Futures Morning Report Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On May 16, the four major A-share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4% to close at 3367.46 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.07% to close at 10179.6 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.19% to close at 2039.45 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.57% to close at 995.24 points. Market turnover was 1.1241 trillion yuan, a decrease of 66.3 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, automobiles (+1.91%), machinery and equipment (+0.83%), and composites (+0.77%) led the gains; beauty care (-1.31%), non-bank finance (-1.21%), and food and beverage (-1.06%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3,000/225/2,186 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 6.4 billion, -4 billion, -6.6 billion, and 4.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +30.7 billion, +24.8 billion, -13.5 billion, and -42 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 134.32, 114.05, 43.09, and 21.46 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -22.13%, -19.95%, -11.08%, and -7.9% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 2%, 1%, 3%, and 13% respectively. The futures - spot price difference remained at a relatively low level [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - On May 16, treasury bond futures fell across the board. The 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.02% to close at 102.38 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.06% to close at 105.72 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.05% to close at 108.48 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.1% to close at 118.91 points [3] Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - The results of the tariff talks exceeded expectations, and the market risk appetite quickly recovered. In the future, the foreign trade situation and fiscal progress in the second quarter are crucial. Pay attention to the recovery of the foreign trade industry and the performance of the domestic demand sector [3]. - From four perspectives, the market is expected to stabilize. First, the RMB exchange rate has held the key level, and there is no need to worry about the drag of the exchange rate on the broader market index for the time being. Second, there are signs of capital inflows into popular industry indexes (such as embodied intelligence, AI, semiconductors, etc.), which may further promote the stabilization and recovery of small - cap indexes. Third, judging from the market performance after May Day in previous years, market trading volume will increase within 1 - 2 weeks, which may help the index start a new round of rise. Fourth, the valuation of the broader market index is at a relatively low level, while the fundamentals of the economic improvement remain stable. It is recommended to buy stock index futures on dips. In the short term, IC and IM have more elasticity, and in the medium and long term, IH and IF have more attractive valuations [3] Treasury Bond Futures - In the short term, the short - end liquidity is neutral. On the macro side, the results of the Sino - US tariff talks have eased more than expected. After the tariff issue is resolved, treasury bonds return to pricing based on economic fundamentals. In the short term, the treasury bond price has reached a high level and is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the trend of treasury bond futures prices. If the domestic economy improves further with policy support, the price of long - term treasury bonds may gradually cool down; otherwise, the long - term price may still remain in a high - level shock situation [4] Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities has declined this week [7] Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The report provides detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts (IC, IF, IH, IM) and their corresponding spot indexes, including price, change, trading volume, turnover, open interest, daily increase in open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [12] Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The report provides detailed performance data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, including price, change, trading volume, turnover, open interest, daily increase in open interest, CTD bond, yield change, net basis, quantile, and IRR. It also shows the short - term capital interest rate market changes [14][17]

100欧元 805.5人民币 100日元 4.9593人民币 100港元 91.985人民币 100英镑 957.76人民币 100澳元 461.63人民币 100新西兰元 424.22人民币 100新加坡元 554.73人民币 100瑞士法郎 862.45人民币 100加元 516.09人民币 100人民币 112.04澳门元 100人民币 59.655马来西亚林吉特 100人民币 1124.12俄罗斯卢布 100人民币 250.73南非兰特 100人民币 19437韩元 100人民币 51.009阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币 52.091沙特里亚尔 100人民币 4999.51匈牙利福林 100人民币 53.033波兰兹罗提 100人民币 92.6丹麦克朗 100人民币 135.22瑞典克朗 100人民币 144.03挪威克朗 100人民币 539.634土耳其里拉 100人民币 270.21墨西哥比索 100人民币 461.03泰铢（完） 5月19日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 719.16人民币 新华社北京5月19日电 中国外汇交易中心5月19日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元 ...

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning report released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on May 16, 2025, covering the market performance and trading strategies of stock index futures and treasury bond futures on May 15, 2025 [1][2][4] Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On May 15, the four major A-share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.68% to 3380.82 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.62% to 10186.45 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 1.92% to 2043.25 points, and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index declined 1.26% to 1000.97 points. Market turnover was 1.1904 trillion yuan, a decrease of 159.5 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, beauty care (+3.68%), coal (+0.42%), and public utilities (+0.12%) led the gains, while computer (-2.97%), communication (-2.45%), and electronics (-2.12%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1406/149/3856 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of - 24.4 billion, - 28.8 billion, 6.8 billion, and 46.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 25.2 billion, - 21.1 billion, + 13.5 billion, and + 32.8 billion yuan respectively [2] Treasury Bond Futures - On May 15, treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The 2 - year treasury bond futures remained unchanged at 102.29 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.03% to 105.79 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.02% to 108.56 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.24% to 119.11 points [4] - In the cash bond market, the CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had yield changes of + 2.5bps, + 2.25bps, + 1bps, and - 0.45bps respectively, with corresponding net basis of - 0.018, - 0.032, - 0.086, and - 0.082, and IRR of 1.72%, 1.87%, 2.43%, and 2.16% respectively [4] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 64.5 billion yuan and withdrew 158.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 94.1 billion yuan [4] Basis and Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 108.04, 92.3, 34.4, and 17.3 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 17.15%, - 15.53%, - 8.47%, and - 6.07% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 7%, 4%, 9%, and 16% respectively. The futures - spot price difference has been repaired but remains at a low level [3] - The outcome of the tariff talks exceeded expectations, and market risk appetite quickly recovered. In the future, the foreign trade situation in the second quarter and fiscal progress are crucial. It is recommended to pay attention to the recovery of the foreign trade industry and the performance of domestic demand sectors [3] - The market is expected to stabilize from four perspectives: the RMB exchange rate has held the key level; there are signs of capital inflows into popular industry indexes; historical data shows that market trading volume usually increases 1 - 2 weeks after May Day; the valuation of the broader market index is at a low level while the economic fundamentals remain strong. It is suggested to buy stock index futures on dips. In the short term, IC and IM have greater elasticity, while in the medium - to - long term, IH and IF have more attractive valuations [3] Treasury Bond Futures - In the short term, the money market is neutral. After the tariff issue is resolved, treasury bonds return to pricing based on economic fundamentals. In the short term, treasury bond prices have reached a high level and are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of treasury bond futures. If the domestic economy improves further with policy support, long - term treasury bond prices may gradually cool down; otherwise, long - term prices may remain in a high - level volatile situation [5] Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure boom has slightly increased, while the import and export boom has weakened [7] Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - Tables provide detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts (such as IC2505, IF2505, etc.) and corresponding spot indexes (such as CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.), including price, change, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [11] Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - Tables present the performance data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, including price, change, trading volume, open interest, CTD bond information, yield change, net basis, quantiles, and IRR [13] - A table shows the changes in short - term money market interest rates, including SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 [16]