来源：滚动播报 美联储巴尔金：我预测利率将温和调整。 ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Tuesday following a lower close on Monday, with major benchmark indices showing negative futures [1] - The Dow Jones index fell by 349 points or 0.77% to 45,282.47, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.43% to 6,439.32, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.22% to 21,449.29 [7][8] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.30%, and the two-year bond was at 3.71%, with an 84.3% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming decision [4] - Key economic data is anticipated this week, including Nvidia's earnings and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July [9][10] - The PCE Price Index is expected to rise modestly, with the core PCE index predicted to increase by 0.4% month-over-month and reach 3.0% year-over-year [10] Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia shares gained 1% on Monday ahead of its earnings release, indicating investor optimism [6] - PDD Holdings Inc. reported positive fiscal second-quarter results, contributing to a favorable sentiment in the market [6] - PVH Corp. is expected to report earnings of $2.00 per share on revenue of $2.12 billion, while Okta Inc. anticipates earnings of 84 cents per share on revenue of $712.01 million [15] Sector Performance - On Monday, consumer staples, health care, and utilities sectors recorded the largest losses, while communication services and energy sectors closed higher [5] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell by 0.034% to $642.25, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) declined by 0.046% to $570.06 in premarket trading [4] Global Market Trends - Asian markets ended lower, with significant declines in indices such as India's S&P BSE Sensex and Japan's Nikkei 225 [17] - European markets also showed a downward trend in early trading [17]

Market Overview - The tech sector experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 2.5% and the S&P 500 by 1.2% due to profit-taking and high valuations concerns [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks on potential interest rate cuts led to a recovery in major indices, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the week higher, the latter reaching an all-time high [3] Company-Specific Insights - Palantir's stock reached a record high of $190 following strong Q2 earnings, but an overheated P/E ratio of 193 caused investor retreat [2] - Nvidia is expected to report significant year-over-year growth in Q2, with EPS projected to rise by 47% and revenue by 53%, driven by demand for their Blackwell Ultra chip [4] - Concerns regarding Nvidia's revenue from China have emerged, with potential exclusion of direct revenue due to pending license approvals and evolving export controls [5] Retail Sector Performance - TJX Companies reported better-than-expected Q2 results, benefiting from lower tariff exposure and value-seeking consumers [6] - Ross Stores also exceeded EPS expectations and provided positive guidance for Q3 [7] - Specialty and apparel retailers face challenges, with Citi downgrading Abercrombie & Fitch, Gap, and Urban Outfitters due to tariff risks and inventory management issues [9] Upcoming Earnings - A total of 1,383 companies are set to report earnings next week, with 79% of companies in the universe having reported thus far [10] - The next earnings season will begin on October 14, featuring major banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo [10]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a potential rate cut as early as September, shifting from a "higher-for-longer" stance to a more flexible approach, which positively impacted market sentiment and expectations for JPMorgan's performance [1][10]. Impact of Rate Cuts on JPMorgan's Net Interest Income (NII) - JPMorgan's balance sheet is highly asset-sensitive, leading to expected downward pressure on NII due to lower asset yields on variable-rate loans and securities [3]. - Management anticipates the near-term impact of rate cuts to be manageable, raising 2025 NII guidance to nearly $95.5 billion, up from a previous estimate of $94.5 billion for this year [4]. - JPMorgan's NII has shown a five-year CAGR of 10.1%, driven by high-interest rates since 2022 and the acquisition of First Republic Bank [5]. Non-Interest Income Outlook - The anticipated shift towards easier monetary policy is expected to enhance client activity, deal flow, and asset values, leading to potential growth in non-interest income streams [7][26]. - Lower borrowing costs are likely to revive corporate financing activity, boosting investment banking and advisory fees, with JPMorgan maintaining a leading position in global IB fees [8]. - Increased volatility in fixed income, currencies, and commodities is expected to benefit JPMorgan's trading revenues, as higher volumes in equities trading are anticipated [9]. Asset Quality and Credit Performance - Lower rates are expected to support asset quality by easing debt-service burdens and improving borrower solvency, particularly benefiting variable-rate consumer and leveraged corporate portfolios [12]. - Management expects Fed cuts to stabilize or modestly improve overall credit performance, especially in consumer and corporate loan books, with a projected card net charge-off rate of approximately 3.6% for 2025 [13]. Strategic Initiatives - JPMorgan continues to expand its branch network, with plans to add 500 branches by 2027, enhancing its competitive edge in relationship banking [14]. - The company has pursued strategic acquisitions, including a larger stake in Brazil's C6 Bank and the purchase of First Republic Bank, to diversify revenues and grow digital offerings [15]. - As of June 30, 2025, JPMorgan maintains a strong balance sheet with total debt of $485.1 billion and cash and deposits of $420.3 billion, supporting its robust liquidity position [16]. Shareholder Returns and Valuation - JPMorgan has consistently rewarded shareholders, increasing its quarterly dividend by 7% to $1.50 per share and authorizing a $50 billion share repurchase program [17]. - The stock has risen 23.5% this year, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, but is trading at a forward P/E of 14.80X, above the industry average of 14.65X, indicating a stretched valuation [20][21]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 suggest a 1.3% decline year-over-year, with non-interest expenses projected to rise to $95.5 billion [23].

Group 1: Company Performance - Citizens & Northern (CZNC) shares increased by 5.2% to $20.49 in the last trading session, with a higher-than-average trading volume [1] - The bank is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.53 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 29.3%, and revenues are projected to be $28.5 million, up 3.7% from the previous year [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for CZNC has been revised 8.2% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive trend that may lead to price appreciation [4] Group 2: Industry Context - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a potential rate cut as early as September, which could lower funding and deposit costs, positively impacting the banking sector [2] - The banking sector's positive response to the Fed's shift from a "higher-for-longer" stance has contributed to the recent increase in CZNC stock [2] - Citizens & Northern is part of the Zacks Banks - Northeast industry, which includes Bank OZK, also showing a positive performance with a 4.6% increase in its last trading session [4]

Company Overview - Middlefield Banc Corp. (MBCN) shares increased by 15.4% to $33.35 in the last trading session, following a period of 4.5% loss over the past four weeks, indicating a significant turnaround in investor sentiment [1] - The company is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.64 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 120.7%, with revenues projected at $19.7 million, up 17.1% from the previous year [3] Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate for Middlefield Banc has been revised 17.4% higher in the last 30 days, suggesting a positive trend that typically correlates with stock price appreciation [4] - Empirical research indicates that trends in earnings estimate revisions are strongly linked to near-term stock price movements, highlighting the importance of monitoring these changes [3] Industry Context - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indication of a potential rate cut as early as September has positively impacted the banking industry, as it may lower funding and deposit costs, thereby improving lending conditions [2] - The banking sector's positive response to the Fed's shift from a "higher-for-longer" stance to a more flexible approach has contributed to the recent increase in MBCN stock [2] - Middlefield Banc is part of the Zacks Banks - Northeast industry, where Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. (MCB) also operates, with MCB's stock closing 5.8% higher at $76.92 in the last session [4]

Core Insights - The article provides a forward-looking analysis of global economic data and events for the upcoming week, focusing on the U.S. GDP revision and PCE price index, and their potential market impacts [1][5] Economic Data and Events Summary - **Monday**: Market reactions to Fed Chair Powell's speech at the global central bank conference are anticipated, with a focus on Germany's IFO business climate index, expected to rise for the sixth consecutive month but at a slowing pace, and U.S. new home sales and Dallas Fed business activity index [3] - **Tuesday**: The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes from its August monetary policy meeting, which may provide insights into future interest rate paths following the third rate cut of the year. U.S. durable goods orders are expected to improve after a significant drop last month, while the Conference Board's consumer confidence index is projected to remain below 100 [3] - **Wednesday**: Key data includes Australia's CPI for July, which if below 2% could reinforce expectations for further rate cuts by the RBA. Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index will be monitored for potential further deterioration. Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is expected to influence tech stocks and the broader market [3] - **Thursday**: The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate revision is crucial, with the initial estimate showing a 3% increase driven by trade account improvements and consumer confidence recovery, although investment declines offset some growth. Market attention will be on whether the latest data will adjust this figure [4] - **Friday**: Japan's July employment report will be scrutinized for unemployment stability and labor market tightness, which may support expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike next year. Germany's employment report and CPI for August will also be key, alongside the U.S. July core PCE price index, which could indicate ongoing inflation pressures affecting Fed rate cut expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea is likely to maintain its interest rate unchanged for the second consecutive time during the upcoming policy meeting, with a majority of economists predicting no adjustment [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - A survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal among 27 economists shows that 20 expect no change in interest rates, while 7 anticipate a rate cut [1] - Goldman Sachs economists, led by Goohoon Kwon, suggest that a moderate stance will allow the Bank of Korea to monitor household debt trends and assess the effects of ongoing fiscal stimulus [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of Korea in October [1] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Expectations - Most economists expect the Bank of Korea to slightly raise its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2025, citing stronger-than-expected economic growth data from the second quarter [1]

【韩国央行周四政策会议大概率连续二次维持利率不变】韩国央行在周四政策会议上，很可能连续第二 次维持利率不变。调查27位学家显示，20位预计利率不变，7位预测会降息。 高盛学家Goohoon Kwon 等称，若温和维持利率不变，韩国央行可监测家庭债务趋势、评估财政刺激效果及追踪美联储政策立 场。高盛预计10月降息。 多数学家预计，韩国央行会略上调2025年国内生产总值和通胀预测，因二季 度增长数据强于预期。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

智通财经APP获悉，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，尽管近期一些通胀数据好于预期，但他希 望一个"危险"的数据点只是昙花一现。 古尔斯比周四在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔美联储年会间隙接受采访时表示，"此前多个通胀报告数据都比预 期温和，这让我感到欣慰。""但最新通胀报告显示，服务业通胀率突然飙升——这可能与关税无关。这 是个危险的数据点，我希望这只是暂时现象。" 鉴于关税对经济影响的不确定性升高，美联储今年一直维持利率稳定。美联储主席鲍威尔将于周五发表 备受期待的演讲，投资者将从中寻找政策制定者下月可能采取行动的线索。 本月早些时候，古尔斯比曾表示经济前景仍然复杂，美联储需要等待更多数据才能调整利率。他是今年 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)具有投票权的成员。 古尔斯比发表上述言论之际，美联储正面临特朗普政府加强审查，公众也在呼吁降息。本周总统要求美 联储理事丽莎·库克辞职，理由是涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。库克表示不会迫于威胁辞职。 他表示，美联储9月政策会议"在我看来将是一次实时决策的会议"。 在另一次接受的采访中，波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯暗示，如果劳动力市场状况恶化程度超过通胀风 险上升幅度，9月份降息可能是合适的。 ...