Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting despite inflation remaining above target levels, driven by concerns over a weakening labor market [1][8]. Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is anticipated to announce a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, marking the third consecutive meeting with a rate reduction [1]. - Minutes from the last FOMC meeting revealed significant divisions among policymakers regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut, with some expressing concerns about its potential impact on inflation [2]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut have fluctuated significantly, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 30% probability of a cut on November 19, down from 98% a month prior, but rebounding to 87% as of December 5 due to soft labor market data [3]. Labor Market Conditions - Layoffs announced in 2025 through November reached 1,170,821, the highest for a comparable period since 2020, with the private sector unexpectedly losing 32,000 jobs in November [6][8]. - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with indicators such as rising unemployment, a low hiring rate, and increased layoff announcements [10]. Inflation Metrics - The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, remained elevated at 2.8% for headline PCE and 2.9% for core PCE in September [7]. - Projections suggest core PCE inflation may rise to about 3.2% in early 2026 before declining to around 2.3% by the end of next year [9]. Policymaker Perspectives - Economists note that there are compelling reasons both to cut rates and to hold them, with a potential "hawkish" tone accompanying any cut announcement [12][13]. - Anticipation exists for at least two dissents against a rate cut, as well as one in favor of a larger cut [14].

A divided Federal Reserve meets this week to decide whether to cut interest rates, the US central bank’s last meeting before the end of a tumultuous year.The US central bank faces a number of unique challenges as it weighs its latest interest-rate decision.After the six-week government shutdown briefly shuttered the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the federal agency that collects economic data on prices and employment, Fed officials have less data to make their decision.Making matters more complicated is what a ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures indicate a flat to modestly higher opening as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates [1] Group 1 - The upcoming week is significant for the markets due to the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is planning to increase government spending while Japan's central bank is contemplating raising interest rates [1] Group 1: Government Spending - The increase in spending is aimed at stimulating economic growth in Japan [1] - This move may lead to a potential shift in fiscal policy as the government seeks to balance growth with inflation concerns [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan is considering raising interest rates, which could impact borrowing costs and economic activity [1] - A change in interest rates may influence the effectiveness of the government's spending initiatives [1]

美元指数目前处于10月底以来的低位，这主要受到市场对美联储可能再次调整利率的预期影响。本周美 联储的政策信号成为影响英镑/美元走势的关键因素。交易者普遍采取观望态度，等待更多关于美联储 未来利率路径的明确指引。市场关注焦点集中在即将发布的经济预测更新以及美联储主席在会后新闻发 布会上的表态。 当前阶段，市场认为任何技术性回调都可能成为潜在入场机会，回调幅度预计有限。本周初缺乏重要经 济数据，市场注意力可能转向英国央行货币政策委员会成员的讲话，以寻找短期线索。英镑/美元正处 于关键技术水平附近整理。美元走势受货币政策预期影响，英镑则获得财政政策明朗化支撑。上方阻力 明显，需观察价格能否有效突破移动平均线区域。 未来几个交易日，英镑/美元预计将在现有区间内波动，直至出现新的基本面或技术面催化因素。 英国方面，近期财政预算不确定性的消除为英镑提供了一定支撑。英国财政大臣宣布了一项年度规模达 260亿英镑的财政调整计划，旨在填补财政缺口并建立应对意外情况的缓冲空间。这一举措有助于缓解 市场对英国央行短期内可能调整政策的担忧，从而为英镑/美元汇率提供了基本面支撑。 从技术分析角度来看，英镑/美元目前面临的关键阻力区域在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Markets are anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, although some traders are forecasting increased volatility in response to this expectation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is expected to address interest rates, with a consensus leaning towards a cut [1] - Traders are predicting that the market may experience volatility as a result of the anticipated interest rate changes [1]

Key Points The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for Dec. 10. There's a high a probability that interest rates will be cut at that meeting. A reduction in interest rates is generally good news for the stock market. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › As of Dec. 1, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) was up 16% this year. It's an impressive performance when you consider that it was up by more than 20% in each of the previous two years. Despite strong gains in recent years, ...

2025年12月07日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 弱势震荡，反弹空间有限 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 2025/10/31 镍期货收盘价(主力合约)( ...

批判一个事实并不难，难的是看清背后的选择逻辑，有人把降息当作礼物，认为那能救市场，稳定消费，提振投资，这是部分真实，但忽略了 货币政策的滞后性——你今天降息，效果常在数月后显现，时间差里有太多未知；有人把加息当作惩罚，认为它抑制通胀，冷却过热，但高利 率会扼杀借贷，扼杀边缘企业，扼杀某些人的希望，政策就是一把双刃剑，哪一边割到你，那个群体就会跑到街上 complain。 要回到原点，预测是人的行为在做出的解释，学者们给出概率，美联储会用语言管理预期，市场会用交易回应，这是一场长长的棋局，输赢不 在单手牌，而在整个盘子的布局，我们只需清醒一点，多问一句在这场游戏里，你准备好了没有。 12月初，大家在等什么，市场在等什么，美联储在做什么，这三件事像三条线，越拉越紧，到最后你得问一句谁在牵这根线，谁在被拉得喘不 过气来。 100位经济学家，半数说2026年第一季度下调利率到3.25?.50%，几乎一半的专家在押注那条未来的路，另一拨更紧张的人说12月10日先降25个基 点，到3.50?.75%，听起来像两手准备，也像赌局中的中间筹码，而我们在台下看牌；你说这是信号，还是噪音？ 市场不是神学，市场是人学，学者们背后藏 ...

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge slowed down on an annual basis for the first time since April, BEA data for September showed. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, ran at a 2.8% annual pace in September, a deceleration from August's 2.9% rate. Monthly core inflation came in at 0.2%, in line with August's numbers. Fed officials should be able to focus on the wavering labor market and cut interest rates by another quarter percentage point at their final meeting of the year next week, thanks ...