智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美国劳工统计局周二发布报告称，11月，新增非农就业人数6.4万人，超过市场预期的5万人，但失业率比9月上升0.2个 百分点至4.6%，创2021年11月以来新高。 受美国史上持续时间最长的政府停摆事件影响，11月非农就业报告较往常推迟了近两周发布。在10月1日至11月12日政 府停摆期间，联邦政府停止非必要服务，期间劳工统计局也没有开展家庭走访调查。随后，劳工统计局宣布无法发布10 月就业报告，取而代之的是，将通过电子渠道收集到的10月份数据并入11月就业报告中一同发布。 劳工统计局周二称，受此前政府裁员影响，10月，非农就业人数减少10.5万人。此外，该机构还下调了8、9月的新增就 业人数，累计下调3.3万人。 分析师表示，此次就业报告巩固了投资者对劳动力市场疲软但并未崩溃的看法，可能不足以推动美联储在1月会议上降 息。美联储下一次货币政策会议将于2026年1月27日-28日召开。 惠誉评级首席经济学家布莱恩·库尔顿对智通财经表示，11月就业人数稳健增长、但失业率进一步上升，结合其他指标 如初请失业金人数和职位空缺数来看，劳动力市场显然并未陷入困境。 凯投宏观北美地区副首席经济学家斯 ...

美联储在12月的政策会议上进行了年内第三次利率下调，幅度为25个基点。根据公开信息，美联储官员对2026年是否进一步调整利率存在不同看法。市场参 与者正关注即将公布的经济数据以及美联储官员的讲话，以获取更多政策线索。 在周三的亚洲交易时段，黄金价格（XAU/USD）延续近期涨势，接近七周以来高点，价格站上每盎司4300美元上方。 美国劳动力市场数据呈现喜忧参半的信号，为贵金属市场提供了支撑。 数据显示，美国劳动力市场保持相对韧性，但已显露疲软迹象，强化了市场对美联储可能进一步调整利率的预期，并对美元走势形成一定压力。 市场基本面分析 美国11月就业数据显示，非农就业人口增加64万人，高于市场预期；失业率微升至4.6%，平均时薪环比上升0.1%。同时，10月零售销售数据持平，低于市 场预期。这些数据共同影响了市场对未来货币政策的预期。 从技术分析角度看，黄金价格短期保持上行态势。四小时图显示，价格持续位于100日指数移动均线上方，布林带呈现扩张状态，相对强弱指标（RSI）位 于中线以上，显示短期买盘动能较为明显。 若价格持续位于当前区间上沿4305美元上方，可能再次试探前期高点4350美元附近区域。反之，若出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with a significant chance of rate cuts in the future [1] Group 1: January Interest Rate Predictions - Probability of maintaining current interest rates is 77% [1] - Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21% [1] - Probability of a rate cut exceeding 50 basis points is 1.7% [1] - Probability of a rate hike of 25 basis points or more is 1.3% [1] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Predictions - Probability of cumulative rate cuts of 75 basis points by 2026 is 24% [1] - Probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 19% [1] - Probability of a 100 basis point rate cut is 14% [1] - Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve should prioritize controlling inflation, as high price pressures may persist into next year and beyond [1] - Bostic advocates for maintaining interest rates until 2026, citing multiple "tailwinds" in the economy that could continue to exert upward pressure on inflation [1] - The recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points faced opposition from three officials, indicating a significant division within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate path [1][2] Group 2 - The median forecast from the latest dot plot indicates that Federal Reserve officials expect only one rate cut next year, despite market expectations for two cuts [2] - Bostic acknowledges a cooling labor demand but does not foresee a severe downturn in the labor market, attributing some changes to structural factors rather than solely interest rate adjustments [2] - Many businesses expect to continue raising prices at least until 2026, with "super core" service inflation remaining high, potentially keeping overall inflation near 3% for an extended period [2] Group 3 - Bostic announced his retirement at the end of February, with the selection process for his successor already initiated by the Atlanta Fed [3] - He clarified that his decision to retire was personal and not influenced by the evaluation pressures related to the reappointment process [3]

Key Points The unemployment rate reached its highest level in four years in November. It's unclear if the report will push the Fed to continue lowering rates. The labor market might be less stable than the Fed thinks. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › The U.S. economy is continuing to limp along. That's what the latest unemployment report seemed to indicate. The update was delayed due to the government shutdown, but the numbers showed the labor market continuing to weaken. The unemp ...

Core Viewpoint - Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expresses concerns about potential rate cuts impacting inflation expectations, emphasizing the need for the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy to control inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Bostic believes that cutting rates could unanchor inflation expectations, with surveys indicating firms plan to continue raising prices into 2026 [2]. - He stresses the importance of the Fed prioritizing inflation control before making further economic moves, reflecting a hawkish stance [5]. Group 2: Employment and Economic Risks - Bostic acknowledges the risks associated with employment and inflation, noting that there are no riskless choices in monetary policy [4]. - He highlights the potential impact of upcoming economic stimulus, including higher refunds and Fed cuts, which could influence inflation dynamics [6]. Group 3: Labor Market Insights - The recent unemployment rate data has garnered attention, with Bostic indicating that while he expected the numbers, there is concern about future trends [3].

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he thought the economy was no longer in danger of a sharp rise in the unemployment rate that might spur a recession. ...

Group 1 - The U.S. added 64,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since July 2021 [1][8] - The healthcare sector led job growth with 46,000 new hires, followed by construction with 28,000 and social assistance with 18,000 [3] - Hourly wages increased by only 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%, indicating that labor is not currently driving inflation [4] Group 2 - Labor force participation rose to 62.5%, the highest since April, influenced by a significant increase in part-time workers [5] - Federal government employment has decreased by 271,000 year-to-date, largely due to planned layoffs and a deferred resignation program [6] - The trailing four-month average job growth is 16,000, significantly lower than previous averages, indicating a slowdown in job creation [7] Group 3 - The market reacted negatively to the jobs report initially, with pre-market futures sliding before recovering slightly [10] - The likelihood of an interest rate cut in January remains below 25%, with March being uncertain [11] - The upcoming retail sales report and other economic indicators will be analyzed further, including earnings from homebuilder Lennar [12]

Kevin Hanks, CBOE pre-bell playbook live there. Good morning to you, Kevin. Uh, we're going to get to this jobs report too.Your thoughts this morning. Good morning. >> Good morning, Nicole.Yeah, we've got a lot to go through, a lot of data, some of it meaningful, but I think if you look at the data, it's actually not as bad as everyone thought because there's reasons why this happened. First and foremost, but let's get to the data. the non-farm payrolls for November, 64,000.That's higher than expected, 40,0 ...

Core Viewpoint - London's FTSE 100 index experienced a decline, primarily driven by losses in the energy and defense sectors, as investors evaluated new jobs data that bolstered expectations for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England later in the week [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The FTSE 100 index slipped on Tuesday, indicating a negative market trend [1] - Losses were particularly noted in the energy and defense stocks, which contributed to the overall decline of the index [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Fresh jobs data was released, which played a significant role in shaping investor sentiment [1] - The jobs data reinforced expectations for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England, suggesting a potential shift in monetary policy [1]