Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.3%, closing at 6,699 points, nearing recent historical highs, indicating a positive overall performance in the stock market this quarter [1][8] - Gold prices continue to rise due to uncertainties surrounding a potential U.S. government shutdown and interest rate cut expectations, recently reaching a new high of $3,870 per ounce [9] Economic Indicators - The JOLTS job openings data for August is set to be released, with economists expecting it to remain stable at 7.185 million, compared to 7.181 million in July [5] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is crucial, as stronger-than-expected results could lead to a short covering of dollar shorts and reduce aggressive rate cut bets [7] Central Bank Policies - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 3.60%, with market expectations for a potential rate cut of 25 basis points early next year [4] - The RBA's cautious stance is influenced by high inflation rates and strong economic growth, limiting its ability to ease monetary policy [3]

Market Overview - Equities experienced a rally for a second consecutive day, while gold reached a record high due to growing optimism regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - The expectation is that the Fed will lower borrowing costs twice more this year, following a recent cut for the first time since December [1] Economic Indicators - Upcoming labor market readings, including job openings, private hiring, and non-farm payrolls, are anticipated to show a slowdown, providing the Fed with justification to ease monetary policy [2] - Concerns exist that a potential US government shutdown could delay the release of these key economic figures [2] Political Landscape - Congressional leaders met with President Trump to negotiate funding, but significant differences remain, indicating a possible government shutdown [3] - The political divide is deepening, with accusations exchanged between parties regarding funding demands and the implications for the American public [3] Market Reactions to Shutdown - Historically, government shutdowns have minimal impact on markets, typically lasting around eight days, but there are concerns that this time could be different due to deep political divisions [4] - A prolonged shutdown could lead to serious consequences for stocks, as evidenced by the 14% drop in the S&P 500 during the 35-day shutdown from 2018-2019 [5] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged to nearly $3,852, with speculation that it could soon reach $4,000, reflecting a nearly 50% increase since the beginning of the year [6] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a key asset amid political and policy uncertainties, rather than just a hedge against inflation [7] Company News - Zijin Mining Group's international spin-off, Zijin Gold International, saw its stock price soar by 66% on its Hong Kong debut, raising over $3 billion in its IPO [8] - The surge in gold companies' stock prices is attributed to increased demand for gold amid market volatility [8] Market Performance - Asian markets showed mixed results, with Hong Kong and Shanghai indices rising, while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 experienced a slight decline [9] - Oil prices fell due to concerns over a potential glut, as OPEC+ discussions about increasing output in November continue [8]

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on September 29, opening at $3756.94 per ounce, reaching a high of $3833.18, and closing at $3830.34 [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 6.01 tons, bringing the total to 1011.73 tons [6] Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve's Williams indicated initial signs of labor market weakness, supporting a rate cut during the recent Fed meeting. He suggested that a slight reduction in rates could help boost the job market and apply downward pressure on inflation [3] - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in October is 10.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.8% [6] Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on a bill to avoid a government shutdown, which could impact the availability of key economic data for policymakers and investors [4] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce's chief policy officer stated that a government shutdown would not push the economy into recession but would increase uncertainty for businesses [4] Geopolitical Events - President Trump announced a 20-point plan aimed at ending the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which he described as a "historic day for peace." The plan includes provisions for the governance of Gaza and the return of hostages [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are showing signs of a strong bullish trend, with daily moving averages indicating upward momentum. However, there are indications of potential exhaustion in the bullish trend, suggesting caution for traders [8][9]

Citing inflation, several Federal Reserve officials have signaled a reluctance to cut interest rates further. ...

Market Overview - The market is nearing all-time highs as the third quarter ends, with expectations of continued upward movement despite potential seasonal weaknesses in September and October [1][2] - There is a belief that the current bull market still has room to grow, with anticipated pauses and corrections in the 10% to 15% range [3][4] Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's actions are crucial; if the economy begins to reheat and inflation pressures rise, concerns about rate hikes may emerge [9][10] - The current cooling phase of the economy allows for a stable market environment, provided the Fed maintains a patient approach [11] Sector Insights - Financials and healthcare sectors are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities, with financials benefiting from a lighter regulatory environment [12][14] - Healthcare valuations are considered low, making it an appealing sector for investment, despite potential political risks related to drug pricing [13][15] China Market Dynamics - China's economy shows signs of improvement, but there are concerns about the reliability of data and the government's influence on economic indicators [17] - Increased competition in the AI sector from China may present both risks and opportunities for the U.S. market, with potential upside in the competitive landscape [18] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has outperformed stocks and is expected to maintain strong demand due to global currency volatility and central bank actions [19][20] - While significant price increases in gold are not anticipated, it is viewed as a stable investment for diversification, with less volatility compared to the stock market [21][22]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve has not met its inflation target for 54 months, indicating a prolonged period of excess inflation [1][2] - Approximately three million children have been born since the Fed last achieved its inflation target, highlighting the significance of this duration [2] Inflation Insights - Current excess inflation is compounded on a 20% increase in the consumer price level, emphasizing the severity of the situation [3] - The core PCE inflation rate is reported at 2.9%, which some may downplay, but it remains a significant concern given the context of previous price increases [4][6] Policy Considerations - The discussion around tariffs suggests they only affect a small portion of the PCE index, with services unaffected by tariffs still increasing at an annualized rate of 3.5% [5][6] - There is a concern that aggressive rate cuts could lead to upward pressure on yields, as seen in previous instances where rate cuts were followed by increases in long-term yields [12] Future Expectations - The expectation is that the Fed should take time to assess the current economic conditions rather than rushing into rate cuts, especially in light of a significant capital expenditure boom [10][11] - The forward curve indicates a potential drop in rates to 3% by the end of next year, which may not align with the current economic environment characterized by low unemployment and high capital expenditures [15][16] Tariff Implications - There are complexities surrounding tariffs, including the potential for the president to utilize various statutory authorities to impose or maintain tariffs, regardless of legal challenges [17][18]

Core Insights - The stock market is currently at its most expensive valuation in over two decades, with the S&P 500 Index reaching new all-time highs and rebounding from sell-offs [1] - Despite high valuations, investors continue to drive the market higher, indicating a strong market sentiment [1][2] Valuation Metrics - The Shiller Cape Ratio for the S&P 500 is around 38, similar to levels seen before market crashes in 2021 and during the dot-com bubble [4][5] - The S&P 500 trades at a historically high 23 times forward earnings, driven largely by the performance of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, each exceeding a trillion-dollar market cap [5] Investor Sentiment - Billionaire investor David Tepper expressed discomfort with current stock multiples but acknowledged the difficulty of staying out of the market due to ongoing Federal Reserve support [6][8] - Tepper noted that the Fed is expected to cut rates two more times this year and once in 2026, which he views as supportive for stocks despite concerns about inflation and economic risks [7]

·人民银行、证监会、外汇局联合香港金管局正式推出跨境债券回购业务 ·美联储官员激辩降息路径：有人敦促加速降息有人认为今年没必要再降息 ·欧洲央行发布数字欧元创新平台研究成果 ·瑞士央行将基准利率维持在0% ·瑞典央行宣布降息25个基点 【全球央行动态】 ·中国人民银行、证监会、国家外汇管理局联合香港金管局正式推出跨境债券回购业务，支持所有已进 入内地在岸债券市场的境外机构参与在岸债券回购业务，从在岸市场获得人民币流动性，并汇出境外使 用。上海清算所表示，境外机构初期可先行参与买断式回购，后续将逐步引入质押式回购。 ·香港金管局宣布，将从今年10月9日起，推出人民币业务资金安排，取代现有的人民币贸易融资流动资 金安排，并实施多项优化措施及扩展合资格资金用途。 ·美联储官员发言一览： 理事米兰指出，当前的政策利率远高于他所估计的"中性"水平，正处于"高度限制性"的区间。美联 储"可以通过一轮非常短暂的、每次50个基点的降息来达到目标"。 理事鲍曼重申，美国的就业市场"脆弱"，通胀则接近联储目标，因此呼吁坚定降息。美联储应努力将资 产负债表控制在最小规模，并改革其货币政策执行机制。 里士满联储主席巴尔金表示，不确定 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The gold market has strong performance, with prices hitting new highs, and the silver increase is greater than that of gold. The market focuses on the US government shutdown risk and Trump's tariff risk. The short - term gold price is expected to run at a high level with increased volatility [3][14]. - The treasury bond futures are in the stage of shock bottom - building. After adjustment, the bond market valuation is gradually reasonable. The bond market will gradually desensitize to negative factors and return to fundamental trading [16]. - The demand for动力煤is weak, and the price is expected to remain near the long - term agreement price. Attention should be paid to coal supply policies [4][19]. - The iron ore price is expected to continue the box - type shock, and the trend market needs to wait. Attention should be paid to the demand for finished products after the National Day and the changes in coal supply policies [22]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline in September, and the inventory - building pressure will slow down significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [23][24]. - The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and there may be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [29]. - The external cotton market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the domestic new cotton harvest will face challenges in downstream demand. The market pressure in the fourth quarter is large [33]. - The coking coal and coke market shows different trends between spot and futures before the festival. The spot price rises due to pre - festival stockpiling, while the futures are worried about post - festival demand and show a shock trend [34]. - The supply and demand of豆粕is weak, and the future price is mainly driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the USDA quarterly inventory report, South American weather and Sino - US relations [38]. - The steel price has limited upward space and needs to pay attention to the callback risk. It is recommended to take a light - position shock approach before the festival [40][41]. - The starch price difference may be undervalued, and there may be a safety margin for widening at low prices [43]. - The medium - term view of玉米is bearish, and the 11 - contract may decline more than the 01 - contract after the National Day [44]. - The red date futures price has risen sharply, and it is recommended to operate short - term. Attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and downstream consumption [47]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in the long - term under the pressure of inventory - building at the end of the year, but the decline space is limited in the peak season before the actual resumption of production [50]. - The lead price is expected to remain in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [52]. - The zinc price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [54]. - The PX price will be in shock adjustment in the short - term [56]. - The PTA price is in a shock trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band strategy [59]. - The downward space of the caustic soda futures price is limited [62]. - The paper pulp market is expected to be in a weak shock [64]. - The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [65]. - The fundamentals of苯乙烯are weak in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to whether the sentiment can be boosted [67]. - The soda ash price is recommended to be shorted at high prices, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [68]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [70]. - The container freight index fluctuates greatly before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [72][73]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is cautious about the prospect of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman believes that decisive action is needed to cut interest rates. The US 8 - month core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12][13][14]. - The gold price fluctuated and closed higher on Friday, hitting a new high. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals were strong, and silver rose more than gold. The market focuses on the US government shutdown risk and Trump's tariff risk. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 411.5 billion yuan on the same day [16]. - Some institutions may choose to hold cash for the holiday due to concerns about the new regulations on public bond funds. However, the impact is limited. The treasury bond futures are in the stage of shock bottom - building, and it is recommended to take a shock approach in the short - term [16][17]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (动力煤) - Some coal mines stopped or reduced production at the end of the month, and the supply decreased slightly. The downstream only maintained rigid demand procurement, and the port coal price stagnated and declined this week [18]. - The demand is weak, and the price is expected to remain near the long - term agreement price. Attention should be paid to coal supply policies [19]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The construction of the Simandou project has made breakthroughs, and the equipment production and shipment are advancing simultaneously [20]. - The iron ore price is in a shock market, and it is expected to continue the box - type shock. Attention should be paid to the demand for finished products after the National Day and the changes in coal supply policies [22]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From September 1 to 25, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [23]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline in September, and the inventory - building pressure will slow down significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [23][24]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the week of September 24, the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.1039 million tons, a decrease of 5.44% from the previous week [25]. - In the 25/26 sugar - making season, 3 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started operation. The sugar production in Xinjiang is expected to be about 700,000 tons [26]. - The market expects that the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil will increase by 15% year - on - year in the first half of September. The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and there may be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [28][29]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The CCI in India may purchase cotton without limit due to the low cotton price. The new cotton in India has been on the market, and the cotton price in the northern region has dropped by about 5 - 6% in the past two weeks [30]. - The export signing volume of US cotton decreased in the week of September 12 - 18, and the shipment volume increased. The external cotton market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the domestic new cotton harvest will face challenges in downstream demand. The market pressure in the fourth quarter is large [32][33]. 2.6 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. Before the festival, the coking coal market showed different trends between spot and futures. The spot price rose due to pre - festival stockpiling, while the futures were worried about post - festival demand and showed a shock trend [34]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (豆粕) - It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume in China will be 9.42 million tons in October, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans is expected to be 9.49 million tons, 8.5 million tons, and 8 million tons from October to December respectively [35][36]. - The supply and demand of豆粕is weak, and the future price is mainly driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the USDA quarterly inventory report, South American weather and Sino - US relations [38]. 2.8 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased to 2.42 million tons. The inventory of five major varieties decreased slightly this week, and the demand for building materials increased seasonally, but the demand elasticity is not optimistic. The steel price has limited upward space and needs to pay attention to the callback risk. It is recommended to take a light - position shock approach before the festival [39][40][41]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on September 22 were - 55 yuan/ton, - 179 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and - 82 yuan/ton respectively [42]. - The starch price difference may be undervalued, and there may be a safety margin for widening at low prices [43]. 2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of September 25, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 26.01 days, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous week [44]. - The medium - term view of玉米is bearish, and the 11 - contract may decline more than the 01 - contract after the National Day [44]. 2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market fluctuated slightly. The futures price of red dates rose sharply, and it is recommended to operate short - term. Attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and downstream consumption [45][47]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Times stopped production on September 25 and is expected to resume production in November. Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project started trial production, and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially put into operation [48][49][50]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in the long - term under the pressure of inventory - building at the end of the year, but the decline space is limited in the peak season before the actual resumption of production [50]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On September 26, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.63/ton. The lead price is expected to remain in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [51][52]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On September 26, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $39.84/ton. The zinc price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [53][54]. 2.15 Energy Chemical Industry (PX) - A refinery in the northeast plans to shut down its reforming unit for about 10 days starting from September 27. The PX price will be in shock adjustment in the short - term [55][56]. 2.16 Energy Chemical Industry (PTA) - The negotiation in the PTA spot market weakened, and the basis loosened. The PTA price is in a shock trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band strategy [57][59]. 2.17 Energy Chemical Industry (Caustic Soda) - On September 26, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally. The downward space of the caustic soda futures price is limited [60][62]. 2.18 Energy Chemical Industry (Paper Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable. The paper pulp market is expected to be in a weak shock [63][64]. 2.19 Energy Chemical Industry (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market was weakly sorted. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [65]. 2.20 Energy Chemical Industry (Styrene) - The weekly consumption of styrene's main downstream products decreased by 4.46% from the previous week. The fundamentals of苯乙烯are weak in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to whether the sentiment can be boosted [66][67]. 2.21 Energy Chemical Industry (Soda Ash) - On September 26, the price of soda ash in the South China market remained stable. The soda ash price is recommended to be shorted at high prices, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [67][68]. 2.22 Energy Chemical Industry (Float Glass) - On September 26, the price of float glass in the Shahe market increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [69][70]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight) - The EU's shipping fuel regulations have "killed" the demand for methanol - powered ships. Before the festival, the container freight index fluctuated greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [71][72][73].

Group 1: US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The US dollar index is stable above 98, potentially recording the largest weekly gain in two months, as US economic growth data diminishes expectations for further Fed easing this year [1] - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in October has risen to approximately 12%, up from 8.1% the previous day; the cumulative rate cut expectation for the year has decreased to less than 40 basis points [1] - The upcoming release of the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated, with a year-on-year increase forecasted at 2.7%, up from 2.6% in July [1] Group 2: Currency Performance and Market Expectations - The Japanese yen has become one of the worst-performing currencies this week, dropping to an eight-week low due to its sensitivity to Fed's hawkish re-pricing, with market expectations for a 14 basis point rate hike from the Bank of Japan in October [1] - The overall inflation rate in Japan for September decreased to 2.5%, below the expected 2.8%, while core inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.5%, the lowest since March [1] - ING predicts that the strong dollar will partially reverse if the market reaffirms expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the yen likely benefiting [2] Group 3: UK Economic Concerns and Currency Impact - The British pound has declined nearly 1% this week, following a 0.6% drop last week, with a cumulative decline of 1.1% for the month, driven by concerns over the UK's long-term fiscal outlook [3] - The yield on 10-year UK government bonds surged, marking the largest single-day increase since early July, reflecting market worries about fiscal conditions [3] - The UK Chancellor is expected to present a budget in November that may include additional tax measures to maintain fiscal rules and gain bond market trust, amid rising borrowing costs and high inflation limiting the Bank of England's rate cut capacity [3]