Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The report predicts that short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend. It also suggests a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options trading [10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybean oil, the 2509 closing price was 7758 with a decrease of 8. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8018, 8038, and 7958 respectively, with basis values of 260, 280, and 200. For palm oil, the 2509 closing price was 8116 with a decrease of 66. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8496, 8526, and 8616 respectively, with basis values of 380, 410, and 500. For rapeseed oil, the 2509 closing price was 9188 with an increase of 6. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9368, 9258, etc., with basis values of 180 and 70 [4] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread for soybean oil was 60 with a decrease of 6; for palm oil, it was 36 with a decrease of 18; for rapeseed oil, it was 142 with an increase of 1 [4] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 09 - contract Y - P spread was - 358 with an increase of 58; the OI - Y spread was 1430; the OI - P spread was 1072 with an increase of 72; the oil - meal ratio was 2.56 with a decrease of 0.01 [4] - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil disk profit for Malaysia and Indonesia was - 283, and the CNF price was 977 for the 7 - month shipment. The FOB price of Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil was 1058, and the disk profit was - 1346 [4] - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories**: As of the 23rd week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 36.4 (compared to 81.3 last week and 75.5 last year), palm oil inventory was 37.3 (compared to 36.8 last week), and rapeseed oil inventory was 76.9 (compared to 78.2 last week) [4] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1387236 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%. The inventory was 1990154 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. Imports were 68971 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%. Production was 1771621 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05% [6] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: The MPOB report was slightly bullish, but due to macro - external factors, palm oil futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 37.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 tons or 2.36%. The inventory was still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes were stable with a slight decline, and the import profit inversion was narrowed. There were 1 - 2 palm oil purchase ships on that day. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. India's reduction of import duties is conducive to increasing palm oil imports, but the origin is expected to increase production and accumulate inventory, so palm oil lacks obvious and continuous bullish drivers and is expected to move sideways in the short term [6] - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 224.46 tons, and the operating rate was 63.1%, a decrease from the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 81.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.78 tons or 7.66%, at a relatively neutral and slightly lower level in the same period of history, and the basis declined. The market is still concerned about the implementation of US biodiesel, and the sowing of US soybeans is ongoing with a lower - than - expected excellent rate, but the impact is limited. The short - term disk will maintain a volatile trend [8] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly higher. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 7.2 tons, and the operating rate was 19.19%, a decrease from the previous week. As of May 30, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 78.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons, still at a high level in the same period of history. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil was around 1050 US dollars, and the import profit inversion was expanded to around - 1300. The spot market was light in trading, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight increase. There are many policy disturbances in the short term, and the single - side will maintain a large - range volatile trend [8] Part 3: Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that short - term oils will maintain a volatile trend [10] - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides 8 graphs, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, Y 9 - 1 monthly spread, P 5 - 9 monthly spread, OI 5 - 9 monthly spread, Y - P 05 spread, and OI - Y 05 spread [13][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the export pressure of Brazilian soybeans gradually decreased, and there may be unfavorable dry weather in the US Midwest in mid - June. After the China - US leaders' call, the market is optimistic about China - US trade, leading to a mild rebound in CBOT soybeans. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil improved, but production also increased, with an expected rise in May palm oil inventory to 2.01 million tons, which suppresses the rebound space of palm oil. The strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit also drags down the crude palm oil futures. [5][6] - In the domestic market, the import soybean crushing volume of oil mills reached a high level, increasing the spot supply pressure. Affected by the hype of high - temperature in US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise, causing soybean oil to stop falling and rebound. The fundamentals of domestic palm oil changed little, and Dalian palm oil followed the external market with narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at an absolute high in the same period. With the easing signal of China - Canada relations, the expectation of tightened supply of imported rapeseed and rapeseed oil may be broken, and the short - term rapeseed oil price may decline further. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - As of the week ending June 3rd, about 16% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 17% in the previous week and 1% in the same period last year. [2] - From June 1st to 7th, Brazil's soybean export volume is predicted to be 4.9016 million tons, up from 3.0155 million tons last week. [2] - Malaysia's palm oil production from May 1st to 31st is estimated to increase by 3.07%, with different increases in different regions. [2] - In the 2024/25 season so far, the EU's palm oil imports have significantly decreased by 19% compared with the same period last year due to the long - term restrictive effect of the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II). [2] - As of the week ending May 29th, the net sales volume of US soybeans to China in the 2024/25 season was - 1,100 tons, and the shipment volume was 65,000 tons. [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the CBOT soybean rebounds moderately. The Malaysian palm oil export demand improves, but the inventory increase and the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit suppress the rebound space. [5][6] - Domestically, soybean oil stops falling and rebounds, palm oil fluctuates narrowly, and rapeseed oil price may decline further. [6]

2025 年 6 月 6 日 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 豆油：豆系驱动不强，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,126 | -0.05% | 8,158 | 0.39% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,676 | -0.16% | 7,704 | 0.36% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,152 | 0.56% | 9,201 | 0.54% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,904 | -1.16% | 3,921 | 0.46% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美 分/磅 | 46.62 | -0.41% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 535,659 | -120,537 | 429,954 | -2,827 | | | 豆 ...

油脂：美豆长势良好 油脂偏弱震荡 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | SH | 网 | 目 | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 6월2 | 元/吨 | 7676.00 | 7688.00 | -12.00 | -0.16% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | ୧月2日 | 元/吨 | 8126.00 | 8130.00 | -4.00 | -0.05% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | ୧月2日 | 元/吨 | 9152.00 | 9101.00 | 51.00 | 0.56% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月4日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1044.75 | 1041.00 | 3.75 | 0.36% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月4日 | 美分/磅 | 46.72 | 4 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is experiencing significant divergence in pressure at the origin, and is in a phase of oscillating at the bottom [1]. - The driving force of the soybean system for soybean oil is weak, and it is showing an oscillating and weakening trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,130 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.81%, and (night session) was 8,118 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.15%. Soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 7,688 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%, and (night session) was 7,666 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.29%. Rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,101 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.84%, and (night session) was 9,136 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.38%. Malaysian palm oil's closing price was 3,950 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.41%, and CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 46.72 cents/pound with a decline of 0.19% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 3,248 to 656,196 lots, and open interest decreased by 35,546 to 432,781 lots. Soybean oil's trading volume increased by 3,247 to 356,149 lots, and open interest decreased by 20,106 to 579,312 lots. Rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 60,229 to 603,657 lots, and open interest increased by 7,796 to 302,979 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 7,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,170 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 975 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 470 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 292 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 971 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 442 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was 44 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 42 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil was 142 yuan/ton [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in June will be 12.55 million tons, lower than 13.83 million tons in the same period last year and 14.2 million tons in May. It maintains the outlook of exporting 110 million tons of soybeans in 2025, which would set a new record [2][3]. - A commodity research institution says that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons. The weather is favorable for crop recovery, and the dry season this year may be shorter than usual [3]. - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, up 7.74% from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, up 3% from April; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, up 17.9% from April [3]. c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Report Core View - Rapeseed oil is greatly affected by news related to China-Canada relations. The Canadian Prime Minister's statement has intensified market bearish sentiment, and rapeseed oil futures led the decline in the entire oil market. It is recommended to underweight. In the long term, the situation of far-month ship purchases still needs to be observed [7] - The market expects that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of May will increase significantly, exceeding 2 million tons for the first time this year. The significant increase in inventory restrains the upward movement of the futures price, but strong exports support the price, and it continues to trade in a range [7] - The abundant soybean supply in Brazil continues to put pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the recent soybean imports and crushing situation. An improvement in the supply situation may bring pressure to soybean oils [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple-pressed rapeseed oil 09+50 (June), first-pressed rapeseed oil 09+250 (June). East China market soybean oil basis prices: first-grade soybean oil: 09+280 in early June, 09+260 from June to July; 09+270 from June to September, 01+330 from October to January. East China 24-degree palm oil: P09+450 yuan/ton [7] - Rapeseed oil was affected by China-Canada relations, with futures leading the decline in the oil market. It is recommended to underweight, and long-term attention should be paid to far-month ship purchases. The expected significant increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory in late May restrains price increases, but strong exports support prices, maintaining a range-bound trend. The abundant soybean supply in Brazil exerts pressure, and attention should be paid to imports and crushing [7] 2. Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in May increased by 3.53% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 1.9% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.3% month-on-month [8] - According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from April. Exports to China were 131,900 tons, an increase of 62,700 tons from the previous month [8] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,320,914 tons, a 17.9% increase from April [8] - According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.2% increase from April [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including spot prices and basis changes of rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil in different regions, as well as price spreads and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][12][15]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-04 中加贸易摩擦或有缓和，菜系价格承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8196.00元/吨，环比变化+136元，幅度+1.69%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7692.00 元/吨，环比变化+54.00元，幅度+0.71%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9272.00元/吨，环比变化-76.00元，幅度-0.81%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8650.00元/吨，环比变化+180.00元，幅度+2.13%，现货基差P09+454.00，环比 变化+44.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.89%，现货基差Y09+228.00， 环比变化+16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9450.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.84%，现货基差 OI09+178.00，环比变化-4.00元。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期市场咨询汇总： 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚5月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1069643吨，较 上月同期出口的8253 ...

证券代码：839979 2025-06-04投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 油脂早报 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货7950，基差258，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月23日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征 ...

2025 年 6 月 4 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：印度降税及原油带动，短期情绪偏好 【宏观及行业新闻】 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年5月1-31日马来西亚棕榈油单产增加1.9%， 出油率增加 0.3%，产量增加 3.53%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,196 | 涨跌幅 1.69% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,198 | 涨跌幅 0.02% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,692 | 0.71% | 7,716 | 0.31% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,272 | -0.81% | 9,262 | -0.11% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,934 | 1.44% | 3,948 | 0.36% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 46.81 | 1.15% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | ...

油脂日报 | 2025-05-28 策略 中性 进口大豆库存回落，油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8044.00元/吨，环比变化+90元，幅度+1.13%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7740.00 元/吨，环比变化+36.00元，幅度+0.47%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9444.00元/吨，环比变化+62.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8450.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.36%，现货基差P09+406.00，环比变 化-60.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.13%，现货基差Y09+180.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9620.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.63%，现货基差 OI09+176.00，环比变化-2.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：中国粮油商务网数据显示，截止到2025年第21周末，国内进口压榨菜油库存量为90.0万吨，较 上周的92.9万吨减少2.9万吨，环比下降3.17%；合同量为11.6万吨，较上周的12.7万吨减 ...