1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the upward momentum of oils and fats is weak and a callback is expected, but the callback range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - selling or waiting patiently for the callback to go long at low prices. YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the callback. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [5][6][10][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybeans, the 2601 closing price is 8394 with a decrease of 20. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8574, 8694, and 8494 respectively, and the basis in these regions is 300, 180, and 100. For palm oil, the 2601 closing price is 9500 with a decrease of 54. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9480, 9480, and 9630 respectively, and the basis is - 20, - 20, and 130. For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price is 9791 with a decrease of 37. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9901, 9841, and the basis is 110 and 50 [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybeans is 294 with an increase of 4; for palm oil, it is 296 with a decrease of 10; for rapeseed oil, it is 161 with an increase of 16 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 1106 with an increase of 34; the OI - Y spread is 1397 with a decrease of 17; the OI - P spread is 291 with an increase of 17; the oil - meal ratio is 2.70 with an increase of 0.03 [3] - **Import Profits**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for September shipment is 1129, and the disk profit is - 216. The FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for September shipment is 1040, and the disk profit is - 485 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 33rd week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 114.3 million tons, the palm oil inventory is 61.7 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory is 66 million tons [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From August 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and the output increased by 0.3% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: Palm oil futures prices fluctuated and slightly declined. As of August 15, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil increased by 1.75 million tons to 61.73 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.92%. The origin quotation increased, and the import profit inversion expanded. There was a reported purchase of one ship. The short - term palm oil may experience a callback. Soybean oil futures prices fluctuated and slightly declined. The actual soybean crushing volume last week was 233.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 65.75%. As of August 15, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 0.50 million tons to 114.27 million tons, with a growth rate of 0.44%. The short - term soybean oil will be more resistant to decline. Rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated and slightly declined. The rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills last week was 4.48 million tons, and the operating rate was 11.94%. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons to 66 million tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion expanded. There was a reported cancellation of near - month rapeseed contracts. The short - term rapeseed oil will maintain a large - range shock [5][6][10] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to have weak upward momentum and experience a callback, but the callback range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - selling or waiting patiently for the callback to go long at low prices [12] - **Arbitrage**: YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the callback [12] - **Options**: On the sidelines [13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts such as the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oils [16][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the US soybean crush volume in July reached a six - month high and exceeded market expectations. CBOT soybean prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 were strong, with only a slight month - on - month increase in production, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price remained strong. Domestically, the soybean oil inventory continued to rise, and factors like increased exports and the Sino - US trade risk premium supported the soybean oil price. The mid - autumn festival stocking will start at the end of the month, and the progress of the Sino - US game should be followed. The palm oil inventory rose slightly, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its futures price mainly follows the cost of the external market. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory is on a downward trend. Despite rumors of active far - month transactions of Australian rapeseed, the expectation of tight rapeseed imports remains due to the Sino - Canadian tariff issue [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre [2]. - The NOPA's monthly crush report showed that on July 31, 2025, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA members was 1.379 billion pounds, a 0.4% decrease from the end of June and an 8% decrease from the same period last year [2]. - From August 1 - 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month [2]. - As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1427 million tons, a 0.44% increase from the previous week [2]. - As of the week ending August 10, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 864.4% to 254,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [3]. - As of the week ending August 15, the soybean crush volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.34 million tons, with increases compared to the previous week, the previous month, the same period last year, and the average of the past three years [3]. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content about fundamental data charts is provided other than the title. Views and Strategies - International: The US soybean crush volume in July was high, exceeding expectations. The CBOT soybean price is oscillating narrowly. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, and its futures price is strong [5]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory is rising, and price is supported. Pay attention to the Sino - US game. Palm oil inventory rises slightly, and its price follows the external market. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the expectation of tight imports remains [5].

1、巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）周二公布数据显示，巴西 8 月大豆出口量预计触 及 880 万吨，之前一周预估为 815 万吨。 2、美国农业部 8 月供需报告：8 月美国 2025/2026 年度大豆种植面积预期 8090 万英亩， 7 月预期为 8340 万英亩，环比减少 250 万英亩；8 月美国 2025/2026 年度大豆产量预期 42.92 亿蒲式耳，7 月预期为 43.35 亿蒲式耳，环比减少 0.43 亿蒲式耳。 3、印度政府数据显示，截至 8 月 8 日，油籽播种面积同比下降 4%，而玉米面积则增长 10.5%，创历史新高。业内人士预计，若趋势持续，未来六至七年食用油进口可能超过 2000 万吨，加剧全球供应紧张并推高价格。 油脂：多重利多叠加 油脂持续走强 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | | | 数据 信 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-08-01 马棕出口放缓，油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8900.00元/吨，环比变化-82元，幅度-0.91%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8192.00 元/吨，环比变化-48.00元，幅度-0.58%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9510.00元/吨，环比变化-111.00元，幅度-1.15%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8940.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.67%，现货基差P09+40.00，环比变化 +22.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8330.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.48%，现货基差Y09+138.00， 环比变化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9600.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.13%，现货基差OI09+90.00， 环比变化+1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚7月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1289727吨，较上月同期出口 的1382460吨减少6.71%。印度植物油生产商协会（IVPA）表示，随着全球价格下降，印度植物油进口商正在增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, abundant rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas of the US has cooled the weather - speculation sentiment. The upcoming China - US negotiations provide some support to the market, leading to a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. High - frequency data shows a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports since July and a month - on - month increase in production. The news of a significant increase in Indonesia's palm oil exports in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures again. Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is great uncertainty in the medium - and long - term supply of imported soybeans. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand overall, and domestic prices mainly follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, domestic spot supply is sufficient, the weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices have continued to fluctuate within a range [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) has significantly raised the estimated 2024/25 rapeseed production to about 19.19 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 17.85 million tons. The export forecast of old - crop rapeseed has also been raised to 9.5 million tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products in May reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but 7.2% higher than last year [2] - As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3,515,877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283,900 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 814,862 tons [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has reduced weather - speculation sentiment, and the upcoming China - US negotiations support the market, causing a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased, and the news of Indonesia's export increase in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures [5] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is uncertainty in future soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern, and domestic prices follow the external market. Rapeseed oil has sufficient domestic supply, the Canadian rapeseed - growing area has good weather, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices are in a range - bound decline [5][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Report's Core View - Crude oil prices have reached a three - week high, and concerns about potential US sanctions on Russia may tighten global supply. Coupled with increased Chinese crude oil imports, the stronger crude oil prices drive the plant oils to fluctuate on the strong side [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,748.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +66 yuan (+0.76%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,994.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +8.00 yuan (+0.10%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,424.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -15.00 yuan (-0.16%) [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,770.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +20.00 yuan (+0.23%), and the spot basis was P09 + 22.00, with a daily change of -46.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,140.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -10.00 yuan/ton (-0.12%), and the spot basis was Y09 + 146.00, with a daily change of -18.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,550.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -20.00 yuan (-0.21%), and the spot basis was OI09 + 126.00, with a daily change of -5.00 yuan [1] Market News - India's palm oil imports in June surged 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [2] - As of the end of June, China's broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; narrow money (M1) balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The stock of social financing scale at the end of June 2025 was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2] - As of July 11, 2025 (week 28), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 563,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27,900 tons (5.21%) and a year - on - year increase of 47,300 tons (9.18%); the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1,049,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,700 tons (2.91%) [2] Import Prices - Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) C&F price was 573 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) C&F price was 563 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) C&F price was 1,137 US dollars/ton, up 28 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price was 1,087 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1,040 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,020 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 449 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; US West soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 444 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Brazilian soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 463 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (August shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; US West Coast (August shipment) was 193 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (August shipment) was 253 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The significant increase in Brazilian soybean exports led to a loose domestic soybean supply. Coupled with the weak MPOB export data and the accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the oil prices were under pressure and oscillated [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,638.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -40 yuan and a decline of -0.46% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 7,944.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +24.00 yuan and an increase of +0.30% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,468.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -42.00 yuan and a decline of -0.44% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -10.00 yuan and a decline of -0.11%. The spot basis was P09 + 82.00, with a环比 change of +30.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,120.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +20.00 yuan/ton and an increase of +0.25%. The spot basis was Y09 + 176.00, with a环比 change of -4.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -40.00 yuan and a decline of -0.41%. The spot basis was OI09 + 132.00, with a环比 change of +2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Brazilian Exports - ANEC expects Brazilian soybean exports in July to reach 11.93 million tons, a 24.27% increase from 9.6 million tons in the same period last year - It expects soybean meal exports to be 2.19 million tons, an 8.96% increase from 2.01 million tons last year - It expects corn exports to be 4.34 million tons, a 7.66% decrease from 4.7 million tons last year [2] US Drought Report - As of the week ending July 8, about 9% of US soybean growing areas were affected by drought, up from 8% the previous week and the same as last year - About 12% of US corn growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and up from 7% last year - About 3% of US cotton growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and down from 22% last year [2] Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast - The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach 169.4879 million tons, a 14.7% increase of 21.7666 million tons year-on-year and a 0.1% decrease of 0.1179 million tons环比 - The sown area is expected to reach 47.6149 million hectares, a 3.2% increase of 1.4653 million hectares year-on-year and a decrease of 0.0049 million hectares环比 - The yield per unit area is expected to be 3.56 tons per hectare, an 11.2% increase of 358.638 kg per hectare year-on-year and a 0.1% decrease of 2.108 kg per hectare环比 [2] MPOB Monthly Report - Malaysian palm oil exports in June were 1,259,354 tons, a 10.52% decrease环比 - Production was 1,692,310 tons, a 4.48% decrease环比 - Imports were 70,015 tons, a 1.51% increase环比 - Inventory was 2,030,580 tons, a 2.41% increase环比 [2]

昨日三大油脂价格震荡下跌，地缘政治影响原油价格大幅下跌，叠加美国产区天气改善，整体油脂承压下行。 策略 油脂日报 | 2025-06-25 原油价格下跌，油脂整体承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8326.00元/吨，环比变化-194元，幅度-2.28%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7950.00 元/吨，环比变化-176.00元，幅度-2.17%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9572.00元/吨，环比变化-149.00元，幅度-1.53%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8480.00元/吨，环比变化-140.00元，幅度-1.62%，现货基差P09+154.00，环比变 化+54.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8160.00元/吨，环比变化-120.00元/吨，幅度-1.45%，现货基差Y09+210.00， 环比变化+56.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9750.00元/吨，环比变化-150.00元，幅度-1.52%，现货基差 OI09+178.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国总统特朗普呼吁以色列停止向伊朗投掷炸弹，称这"严重违反"了他几个小时前宣布的两 国之 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-06-19 多空交织，油脂震荡调整 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8518.00元/吨，环比变化+72元，幅度+0.85%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8084.00 元/吨，环比变化+112.00元，幅度+1.40%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9703.00元/吨，环比变化+120.00元，幅度+1.25%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8770.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.46%，现货基差P09+252.00，环比变 化-32.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8250.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.73%，现货基差Y09+166.00， 环比变化-52.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9900.00元/吨，环比变化+120.00元，幅度+1.23%，现货基差 OI09+197.00，环比变化+0.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(7月船期)C&F价格1143美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调59美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(9 月船期)C&F价格1138美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调66美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油 ...

油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8106.00元/吨，环比变化+108元，幅度+1.35%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7820.00 元/吨，环比变化+44.00元，幅度+0.57%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9395.00元/吨，环比变化+34.00元，幅度+0.36%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8620.00元/吨，环比变化+110.00元，幅度+1.29%，现货基差P09+514.00，环比变 化+2.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8080.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.37%，现货基差Y09+260.00， 环比变化-14.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9580.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.42%，现货基差 OI09+185.00，环比变化+6.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据欧盟委员会，截至5月18日，欧盟2024/25年度棕榈油进口量为251万吨，而去年同期为308 万吨。欧盟2024/25年度豆粕进口量为1682万吨，而去年同期为1346万吨。欧盟2024/25年度油菜籽进口量为628万 吨，而去年同期为507万吨。据船运调查机构 ...