欧洲气温波动剧烈，关注菜籽产区 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8848.00元/吨，环比变化+24元，幅度+0.27%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8228.00 元/吨，环比变化+88.00元，幅度+1.08%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9244.00元/吨，环比变化+44.00元，幅度+0.48%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8790.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.23%，现货基差P05-58.00，环比变化 -44.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8530.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.83%，现货基差Y05+302.00， 环比变化-18.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9940.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.10%，现货基差 OI05+696.00，环比变化-54.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，乌克兰农民联盟UAC表示，由于天气问题可能导致产量下降，该国2026年7-8月 到货的油菜籽收获的出口参考价格已从一个月前的每吨510-520美元升至每吨530-540美元。作为欧洲主要油菜籽种 植国和出口国，乌克兰2024 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views - Due to pre - holiday trading slump and factors such as South American soybean bumper harvest and the extension of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the prices of the three major oils are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8782.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 124 yuan or 1.39% compared to the previous period [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8082.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.00 yuan or 0.35% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9047.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84.00 yuan or 0.92% [1] Spot Prices and Basis - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8780.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.79%, and the spot basis was P05 - 2.00, an increase of 54.00 yuan [1] - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was Y05 + 308.00, an increase of 28.00 yuan [1] - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.00 yuan or 0.81%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 753.00, an increase of 4.00 yuan [1] US Soybean Sales and Shipment - The net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 28.2 tons, down from 43.7 tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, it was 0.1 tons, up from 0 tons the previous week [2] - The export shipments of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 112.9 tons, down from 138.8 tons the previous week [2] - The net sales of US soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 28.6 tons, up from 23.3 tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, it remained 0 tons [2] - The cumulative sales of US soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 marketing year reached 1017.3 tons, up from 988.7 tons the previous week [2] - The export shipments of US soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 74.6 tons, down from 80.9 tons the previous week; the cumulative shipments were 507 tons, up from 432.4 tons the previous week; the unshipped volume was 510.3 tons, down from 556.3 tons the previous week [2] Brazilian Soybean Forecast - CONAB predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would reach 177.985 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5045 million tons or 3.8% [2] - The sown area of soybeans in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was expected to reach 48.4344 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.0883 million hectares or 2.3% [2] - The soybean yield in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was expected to be 3.67 tons per hectare, a year - on - year increase of 52.918 kilograms per hectare or 1.5% [2] Other Market Information - The IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 in its February report, expecting a growth of 850,000 barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 930,000 barrels per day [2] - The investigation period for anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed has been extended to March 9, 2026 [2] - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 10 was 273,472 tons, a 16.1% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices support the firmness of the oil and fat market, and the prices of the three major oils were volatile yesterday. The data from shipping survey agencies shows that the recent exports of Malaysian palm oil have increased month - on - month, and the international crude oil has risen by about 3%, providing strong support for oil and fat prices [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,270.00 yuan/ton, a change of +32 yuan or +0.35% compared with the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,326.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68.00 yuan or +0.82%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,330.00 yuan/ton, a change of +4.00 yuan or +0.04% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,190.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan or +0.11%, with a spot basis of P05 - 80.00, a change of -22.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,620.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan/ton or +0.94%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 294.00, a change of +12.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,160.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and a spot basis of OI05 + 830.00, a change of -4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Crop C&F Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 545 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 553 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 482 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 476 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton [2] Imported Soybean Premium Quotes - The premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 243 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel. The premium of US West Coast soybeans (February shipment) was 228 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel. The premium of Brazilian port soybeans (February shipment) was 160 cents/bushel, with no change [2] C&F Prices of Imported Oils - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,202 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 29 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (May shipment) was 1,137 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,040 US dollars/ton, with no change. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,020 US dollars/ton, with no change [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The relationship between China and Canada has eased, leading to increased volatility in the cooking oil market [1] - The prices of the three major cooking oils fluctuated yesterday. The futures and spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all showed varying degrees of decline [1] - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement has increased the hope of improving market access after months of interruption, but key details still need to be clarified [2] - Currently, the inventory of Canadian rapeseed in China has been cleared, and Australian rapeseed has not started to be pressed. The production of rapeseed oil in China has stagnated. The spot rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking, and the market circulation of spot goods is scarce. The basis is high and continues to rise. The rapeseed futures may experience a correction due to trade relations, but the basis is expected to remain high before the spot shortage is alleviated [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,648.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan or 0.30% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract yesterday was 7,996.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or 0.25% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,902.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 161.00 yuan or 1.78% compared to the previous day [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,620.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.35% compared to the previous day, and the spot basis was P05 + - 28.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,380.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.12% compared to the previous day, and the spot basis was Y05 + 384.00, an increase of 10.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160.00 yuan or 1.61% compared to the previous day, and the spot basis was OI05 + 848.00, an increase of 1.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] International Market Prices - Argentina's C&F price of soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,209 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; Argentina's C&F price of soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,139 US dollars/ton, an increase of 31 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,030 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,010 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 474 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 468 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 447 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium quotation: the Gulf of Mexico (February shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; the US West Coast (February shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (February shipment) was 161 cents/bushel, a decrease of 7 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With sufficient soybean arrivals, the soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, resulting in a loose supply of soybean oil and high inventory. It is expected that soybean oil will remain volatile in the short term [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan or 0.65% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,818 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan or 0.23% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan or 0.07% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.59%, and the spot basis was P05 - 22 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 412 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.41%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 700 yuan, an increase of 46 yuan [1] Market News - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil for different shipping dates remained flat compared to the previous trading day, while the C&F prices of US and Brazilian soybeans for January shipping decreased by 2 dollars/ton [2] - The export volume of Argentine soybean oil in November was 524,000 tons, lower than the previous month and last year. The total exports to India and Nepal increased. The total exports in the first 11 months were 6.48 million tons, lower than the same period in 2024. Further shipments are expected to be lower than last year due to reduced soybean processing and lower inventory [2] - Argentina announced a reduction in export tariffs for the soybean industry, with soybean tariffs decreasing from 26.5% to 24% and soybean product tariffs from 24.5% to 22.5% [2] Soybean Oil Situation - As of December 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1235 million tons, at a nearly 6 - year high. Last Thursday, the market traded on the delay of soybean customs clearance, boosting the soybean - related market, and the short - covering led to an increase in the spot basis [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the upward momentum of oils and fats is weak and a callback is expected, but the callback range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - selling or waiting patiently for the callback to go long at low prices. YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the callback. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [5][6][10][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybeans, the 2601 closing price is 8394 with a decrease of 20. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8574, 8694, and 8494 respectively, and the basis in these regions is 300, 180, and 100. For palm oil, the 2601 closing price is 9500 with a decrease of 54. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9480, 9480, and 9630 respectively, and the basis is - 20, - 20, and 130. For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price is 9791 with a decrease of 37. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9901, 9841, and the basis is 110 and 50 [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybeans is 294 with an increase of 4; for palm oil, it is 296 with a decrease of 10; for rapeseed oil, it is 161 with an increase of 16 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 1106 with an increase of 34; the OI - Y spread is 1397 with a decrease of 17; the OI - P spread is 291 with an increase of 17; the oil - meal ratio is 2.70 with an increase of 0.03 [3] - **Import Profits**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for September shipment is 1129, and the disk profit is - 216. The FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for September shipment is 1040, and the disk profit is - 485 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 33rd week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 114.3 million tons, the palm oil inventory is 61.7 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory is 66 million tons [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From August 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and the output increased by 0.3% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: Palm oil futures prices fluctuated and slightly declined. As of August 15, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil increased by 1.75 million tons to 61.73 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.92%. The origin quotation increased, and the import profit inversion expanded. There was a reported purchase of one ship. The short - term palm oil may experience a callback. Soybean oil futures prices fluctuated and slightly declined. The actual soybean crushing volume last week was 233.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 65.75%. As of August 15, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 0.50 million tons to 114.27 million tons, with a growth rate of 0.44%. The short - term soybean oil will be more resistant to decline. Rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated and slightly declined. The rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills last week was 4.48 million tons, and the operating rate was 11.94%. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons to 66 million tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion expanded. There was a reported cancellation of near - month rapeseed contracts. The short - term rapeseed oil will maintain a large - range shock [5][6][10] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to have weak upward momentum and experience a callback, but the callback range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - selling or waiting patiently for the callback to go long at low prices [12] - **Arbitrage**: YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the callback [12] - **Options**: On the sidelines [13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts such as the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oils [16][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the US soybean crush volume in July reached a six - month high and exceeded market expectations. CBOT soybean prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 were strong, with only a slight month - on - month increase in production, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price remained strong. Domestically, the soybean oil inventory continued to rise, and factors like increased exports and the Sino - US trade risk premium supported the soybean oil price. The mid - autumn festival stocking will start at the end of the month, and the progress of the Sino - US game should be followed. The palm oil inventory rose slightly, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its futures price mainly follows the cost of the external market. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory is on a downward trend. Despite rumors of active far - month transactions of Australian rapeseed, the expectation of tight rapeseed imports remains due to the Sino - Canadian tariff issue [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre [2]. - The NOPA's monthly crush report showed that on July 31, 2025, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA members was 1.379 billion pounds, a 0.4% decrease from the end of June and an 8% decrease from the same period last year [2]. - From August 1 - 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month [2]. - As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1427 million tons, a 0.44% increase from the previous week [2]. - As of the week ending August 10, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 864.4% to 254,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [3]. - As of the week ending August 15, the soybean crush volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.34 million tons, with increases compared to the previous week, the previous month, the same period last year, and the average of the past three years [3]. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content about fundamental data charts is provided other than the title. Views and Strategies - International: The US soybean crush volume in July was high, exceeding expectations. The CBOT soybean price is oscillating narrowly. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, and its futures price is strong [5]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory is rising, and price is supported. Pay attention to the Sino - US game. Palm oil inventory rises slightly, and its price follows the external market. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the expectation of tight imports remains [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Multiple positive factors are driving the continuous strength of the oil and fat market. Internationally, the USDA's August supply and demand report led to a significant increase in CBOT soybean prices, and Malaysian palm oil futures continued to rise. Domestically, soybean oil prices are supported by inventory and other factors, palm oil follows external costs, and rapeseed oil has policy - related risks after price increases [1][5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's soybean export volume in August is expected to reach 8.8 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 8.15 million tons [2] - The USDA's August supply and demand report shows that the expected soybean planting area in the US for the 2025/2026 season decreased by 2.5 million acres month - on - month, and the expected output decreased by 43 million bushels month - on - month [2] - As of August 8, India's oilseed sowing area decreased by 4% year - on - year. If the trend continues, edible oil imports may exceed 20 million tons in the next six to seven years [2] - On August 12, the cost of Canadian rapeseed imported to China, including margin, reached 8,394 yuan/ton, making it difficult to enter the Chinese market [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided in the given content 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the USDA's August supply and demand report led to a sharp rise in CBOT soybean prices. The MPOB monthly report and high - frequency data contributed to the rise of Malaysian palm oil futures [5][6] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, and factors like export increase and trade risk premium support its price. Palm oil inventory slightly rises, with a supply - demand weak pattern, and its futures price follows external costs. Rapeseed oil inventory has a downward trend, and the temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect imports, with policy risks to be watched [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Yesterday, the prices of the three major oils fluctuated. Malaysia's export data showed a slowdown in July. Although India's purchases increased, the overall inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue. The crops in the US soybean production area are growing well, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Although the export data is good, its impact on the domestic market is limited [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan or -0.91% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,192.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.00 yuan or -0.58%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 111.00 yuan or -1.15% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,940.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan or -0.67% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was P09 + 40.00, an increase of 22.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first-grade soybean oil was 8,330.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.00 yuan/ton or -0.48%. The spot basis was Y09 + 138.00, an increase of 8.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan or -1.13%. The spot basis was OI09 + 90.00, an increase of 1.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Palm Oil Exports - According to data from the shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a decrease of 6.71% compared to the 1,382,460 tons exported in the same period last month [2] India's Palm Oil Purchases - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) stated that as global prices decline, Indian vegetable oil importers are increasing their palm oil purchases to meet the expected surge in demand during the festival season [2] Indonesia's Palm Oil Policies - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per ton, higher than the $877.89 in July. The new reference price means that the export tax for crude palm oil in August will be raised from $52 per ton in July to $74 per ton. Indonesia also adjusted the reference prices and export taxes in previous months, with significant fluctuations [2] US Crop Drought Conditions - According to the latest USDA drought report, as of the week ending July 29, about 5% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought, compared to 8% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year. About 7% of the US corn planting area was affected by drought, compared to 9% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year. About 5% of the US cotton planting area was affected by drought, compared to 3% in the previous week and 11% in the same period last year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, abundant rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas of the US has cooled the weather - speculation sentiment. The upcoming China - US negotiations provide some support to the market, leading to a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. High - frequency data shows a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports since July and a month - on - month increase in production. The news of a significant increase in Indonesia's palm oil exports in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures again. Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is great uncertainty in the medium - and long - term supply of imported soybeans. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand overall, and domestic prices mainly follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, domestic spot supply is sufficient, the weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices have continued to fluctuate within a range [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) has significantly raised the estimated 2024/25 rapeseed production to about 19.19 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 17.85 million tons. The export forecast of old - crop rapeseed has also been raised to 9.5 million tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products in May reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but 7.2% higher than last year [2] - As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3,515,877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283,900 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 814,862 tons [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has reduced weather - speculation sentiment, and the upcoming China - US negotiations support the market, causing a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased, and the news of Indonesia's export increase in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures [5] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is uncertainty in future soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern, and domestic prices follow the external market. Rapeseed oil has sufficient domestic supply, the Canadian rapeseed - growing area has good weather, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices are in a range - bound decline [5][6]