本文来自格隆汇专栏：周浩宏观研究 作者：周浩、黄凯鸿 近期美股主要股指稳步回升，延续自4月初市场触底以来的修复趋势。最新美国就业数据好于预期、美国通胀率往长期目标水平回落以及中美经贸会谈有 进展共同推动美股市场稳步上涨。然而，中东局势的变化压制美股市场风险偏好，限制美股进一步上涨。 在行业层面，科技行业表现靠前。中美经贸会议在伦敦举行，并就框架性协议达成共识。在更早的时候，特朗普宣布对外大幅加征关税引发科技股的剧烈 回调，市场认为特朗普关税政策将不可避免提高美国跨国企业成本，因此，中美经贸关系有所进展缓解市场部分担忧，以科技企业为代表的跨国企业盈利 预期改善。 另外能源行业表现强势，与中东局势紧张、国际油价上涨有关。当地时间6月12日，以色列对伊朗发动袭击，以色列和伊朗局势再度升级，国际油价进一 步飙升。近期市场持续关注中东以色列和伊朗的紧张关系，国际油价由4-5月的低位开始持续上涨，能源股跟随上升。投资者相信中东冲突规模一旦扩 大，导致霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，国际油价可能进一步攀升，能源股受益。 另一方面，对美股市场形成拖累的主要是消费行业。市场认为美国消费企业在特朗普阶段性对外加征高关税的政策下承担了大部分成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a decline across various ETFs, with notable drops in major indices and sectors, indicating a bearish sentiment in the investment landscape [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Russell 2000 ETF fell by 1.83% [1] - The Dow Jones ETF decreased by 1.78% [1] - The Emerging Markets ETF dropped by 1.59% [1] - The Nasdaq 100 ETF declined by 1.26% [1] - The S&P 500 ETF saw a decrease of 1.12% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The US Real Estate ETF declined by 0.97% [1] - The US Treasury 20+ Year ETF fell by 0.96% [1] - Long positions in the Japanese Yen and Euro both decreased by 0.2% [1] - Agricultural funds experienced a slight drop of 0.19% [1] Group 3: Positive Performances - The US Dollar Index saw an increase of 0.26% [1] - The Gold ETF rose by 1.31% [1] - The Soybean Fund increased by 2.77% [1] - The US Brent Oil Price Fund surged by 6.77% [1] - The Fear Index long position rose significantly by 7.80% [1]

美股低开低走，三大指数均跌超1%。道指跌1.79%，纳指跌1.3%，标普500指数跌1.13%。 ...

智通财经6月13日电，以色列对伊朗发动袭击，美股股指期货跳水，纳指期货现跌1.5%，标普500指数 期货跌1.3%，道指期货跌1.1%。 以色列对伊朗发动袭击 美股股指期货跳水 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that U.S. stock index futures have expanded their declines, with both Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures dropping over 1% [1]

如何看待美国通胀不及预期？20250612 摘要 5 月核心商品 CPI 环比增速转负至-0.04%，表明上行压力减弱，可能与 前期补库和近期关税边际缓和有关，服装和通信商品价格表现疲软，但 批发商或吸收部分关税成本。 对中国依赖度较高的娱乐产品、体育用品、玩具等品类价格延续上涨趋 势，家具、家居用品等品类环比增速扩大，显示关税对美国经济产生传 导效应，但库存滞后效应需持续观察。 核心服务方面，房租同环比增速回落，但市场租金前瞻指标显示未来下 行空间有限，整体房租及其支撑的核心服务通胀韧性仍然存在，房租以 外超级核心服务表现偏弱。 贸易战升级可能导致商品价格上升，居民在服务及可选消费上的购买力 受损，居民出行或休闲相关服务消费价格疲软，后续需求走弱风险值得 关注。 当前 CPI 数据平稳，中美贸易战未进一步升级，降息预期小幅升温，美 债利率下行，但美伊核协议问题导致美股下跌，联储可能维持观望姿态。 对中国依赖度较高的娱乐产品、体育用品、玩具等品类，其价格延续了上涨趋 势。例如玩具本期环比通胀率达到 1.35%，比上一期增加一个百分点。此外， 对中国依赖度高的家具、家居用品等品类，其环比增速也进一步扩大至约 0 ...

美元指数短线下跌约20点，现报97.70。美国10年期国债收益率短线下跌，现报4.371%。美股期货短线 小幅拉升，纳斯达克100指数期货跌幅收窄至0.5%。现货黄金短线波动不大，现报3384.72美元/盎司。 ...

Market Overview - After experiencing policy fluctuations, market risk appetite has rebounded, with US stocks showing a strong recovery over the past month, bringing the S&P 500 index close to historical highs [1] - As of June 11, the S&P 500 index closed at 6022.24 points, reflecting an 18% rebound from early April, while the Nasdaq Composite index saw a 26% increase during the same period [1] Analyst Predictions - Several Wall Street investment banks have expressed optimistic expectations for the US stock market, with Goldman Sachs projecting a 10% increase in the S&P 500 index by the end of 2025, raising its target to 6500 points [4] - Citigroup has also raised its target for the S&P 500 index to 6300 points, anticipating a further 5% increase [4] - Analysts indicate that after the recent rise, valuations have reached historical highs, leading some investors to exit the market, suggesting limited upward potential for US stocks moving forward [4] Economic Factors - The Chief Investment Officer of Wells Fargo, Darrell Cronk, believes that the US stock market will experience more dramatic volatility this year compared to the previous two years, with significant fluctuations expected in the second half of 2025 [5] - Despite the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, core inflation is showing signs of recovery, and there are risks of inflation rising due to potential tariff costs being passed on to consumers [5] - The impact of the Trump tax cuts may also play a significant role in the US stock market, presenting both opportunities and risks for economic growth and valuations [5] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 has risen to 27.82, indicating that US stocks are still relatively high in terms of valuation [6] - The expectation for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growth is 7% for the second half of 2025 and 14% for 2026, although some analysts believe these projections may be overly optimistic given the potential impact of tariff policies [5][6] Asset Allocation Trends - There is a noticeable shift in global investment strategies from "dollar asset allocation" to "non-dollar asset reallocation," emphasizing the importance of diversified asset allocation [8] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is prompting countries to adjust their balance sheets, which may increase demand for Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like consumption, smart devices, robotics, and automation [8] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience significant development opportunities, with relative valuations likely to rise and expansion opportunities on the horizon [9] - The Hang Seng Index's dynamic P/E ratio is currently at 10.37, while the Hang Seng Tech Index stands at 19.96, indicating that both indices have room for valuation recovery compared to major overseas indices [9]

美股期货跌幅扩大，标普500指数期货跌0.5%。 ...

Market Overview - US stock market opened high but closed lower, with all three major indices declining; Nasdaq down 0.5%, S&P 500 down 0.27% [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks mostly fell, with Intel dropping over 6%, marking its largest single-day decline in two months; Amazon down over 2%, Apple and Meta down over 1%, while Nvidia and Google saw slight declines [3] - Oklo surged nearly 30%, reaching a record closing high after securing a nuclear power agreement with the US Air Force [3] - Voyager Technologies Inc. (VOYG) saw an 82% increase on its first day of trading in the US IPO market [3] Chinese Stocks - Mixed performance among popular Chinese stocks, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.08%; Bilibili up over 8%, Futu Holdings and Dingdong Maicai up over 6%, while Alibaba fell over 1% [5] Commodity Prices - International gold prices continued to rise, reaching $3,370 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 0.5% [10] - COMEX gold futures rose 0.9%, settling at $3,373.5 per ounce; COMEX silver futures fell 0.76%, settling at $36.365 per ounce [12] - International crude oil futures surged over 4%, with WTI July crude oil closing up $3.17, a 4.88% increase, at $68.15 per barrel; Brent August crude oil rose $2.9, a 4.33% increase, at $69.77 per barrel [12]