Group 1: Import and Export Data Overview - In September, total exports reached 328.6 billion, with a growth rate of 8.3% year-on-year, while imports were 238.1 billion, growing by 7.4%[1] - The rebound in export growth is supported by global economic recovery and market diversification, alongside a low base effect from the previous year[1] - The global manufacturing PMI remained above the neutral line, with September's PMI at 50.8%[1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Export Growth - Market diversification continues to support export growth, with significant increases in exports to regions like APEC (up 56.4%) and ASEAN (up 25.9%) in September[1] - The low base effect from last year contributed to the improved export figures, with September 2022 showing a decline of 2.3%[1] Group 3: Import Dynamics - Import growth exceeded historical levels, driven by improved demand and China's proactive opening-up policies[1] - In September, imports from Africa, ASEAN, and the EU showed significant increases, while imports from the US saw a reduced decline[1] - The low base effect also played a role in the recovery of import figures, with September 2022 showing a decline of 0.13%[1] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The export outlook may face pressure due to potential trade friction and a forecasted global economic slowdown, with BIMCO projecting a growth rate of only 1.6% for 2025-2026[1] - The possibility of marginal increases in tariff levels between China and the US post-November could further impact export dynamics[1]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance in June, with the US indices collectively rising, led by the Nasdaq[4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new historical highs, while the Dow Jones approached its historical peak[4] Economic Indicators - The US May PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while the core PCE index hit 2.7%, the highest since February 2025[4] - Consumer confidence in the US declined, with the Conference Board's index dropping to 100.4 in June, slightly above the market expectation of 100[4] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index weakened significantly, falling from above 110 at the beginning of the year to around 97 currently[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield, which peaked near 4.9% earlier in the year, has shown a trend of stabilization and decline[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times in the second half of the year has risen to nearly 60%[4] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected in September, October, and December, following recent comments from Fed officials[4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued large-cap stocks in manufacturing, consumption, and technology sectors, as small-cap stocks have seen significant gains recently[4] - The strong performance of established companies, such as Nike post-earnings, suggests potential for recovery in the sector[4] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[4]

Key Points - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in May, with a 95% probability of no change, due to the resilience of the US economy and limited impact from tariffs on employment and inflation [1] - Current economic data shows signs of moderate weakening but no recession indicators, with significant layoffs in April not reflected in non-farm payroll data and strong PMI figures [1] - The focus will be on how Fed Chair Powell assesses the economic situation during the press conference, as any slowdown in employment and consumption could lead to recession risks [1] Outlook - The relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve has eased, increasing the likelihood of the Fed sending positive signals [2] - Following strong non-farm payroll and PMI data, expectations for rate cuts have been delayed, and the Fed may have more room to stabilize market and economic expectations [2] - The upcoming FOMC meeting aims to provide a relatively positive signal to maintain market recovery since late April, reducing the potential for future interference from the Trump administration [2] Market Impact - The Fed's positive signals could lead to an increase in the probability of rate cuts if economic data weakens in the future [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and short-term rates are expected to trend downward, with US stocks entering a consolidation phase after volatility decreases [2] - It is suggested to gradually invest in US stocks, particularly in small-cap growth sectors, which may have greater upside potential compared to large-cap indices like the Dow and Nasdaq [2]