Core Points - Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, citing the heavy burden of national debt interest payments, which amount to $1.2 trillion annually [1][3] - The current interest rate of 4.5% could be reduced to 1%, potentially saving the government around $1 trillion each year, which could help address the fiscal deficit caused by Trump's policies [1] - Powell is cautious about lowering rates due to the current core inflation rate of 2.8% and rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [1][3] Group 1 - Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's renovation budget, which escalated from an initial $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, labeling it as a waste of taxpayer money [3] - He has employed a strategy of public criticism followed by calls for investigation, reminiscent of his past political tactics [3] - Powell's position is legally protected, as the President cannot remove the Fed Chair without evidence of misconduct, and Powell's term lasts until 2028 [5] Group 2 - Wall Street supports Powell, with JPMorgan's CEO stating that attacking him undermines market confidence, and Goldman Sachs warning of potential market volatility if Trump's policies are enforced [5] - The Treasury Secretary publicly supports Trump but is privately exploring potential successors for Powell, indicating internal tensions [5] - Recent documents suggest a 78% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating a subtle shift in Powell's policy stance despite his public resistance [5] Group 3 - Historical parallels are drawn to Nixon's pressure on the Fed, which led to significant inflation, highlighting the risks of politicizing monetary policy [7] - Concerns are raised about the integrity of the U.S. financial system if the Fed is treated as a political tool, with recent actions by other countries signaling a lack of confidence in U.S. debt [7] - Global investors are closely monitoring the situation, questioning whether the U.S. will risk its financial system for personal political agendas [9]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump expresses confidence in the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts while simultaneously advocating for a strong dollar, highlighting the contradictory nature of his statements regarding the dollar's impact on U.S. manufacturing and sales [1][2]. Group 1: Trump's Views on the Dollar - Trump states he prefers a strong dollar but acknowledges that a weaker dollar can benefit U.S. manufacturers, including companies like Caterpillar [2][5]. - He emphasizes that a strong dollar hampers U.S. tourism and product sales, suggesting that a weaker dollar could alleviate these issues [2][4]. Group 2: Interaction with the Federal Reserve - Trump describes his recent meeting with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as positive, indicating that Powell may be inclined to suggest interest rate cuts [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve acknowledges Trump's visit, expressing appreciation for the opportunity to discuss ongoing renovation projects at their headquarters [4]. Group 3: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump’s administration continues to apply pressure on Powell, using the $2.5 billion renovation project as leverage against him [5][6]. - Officials from the Trump administration have publicly criticized Powell, suggesting mismanagement and calling for investigations into the Fed's renovation expenditures [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the apparent prosperity of the U.S. economy, underlying structural vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly evident, particularly in the labor market and inflation dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The labor market remains robust, with nearly 90% of job growth in recent years concentrated in government, leisure and hospitality, and healthcare/education sectors, while key growth sectors like technology, manufacturing, construction, and professional services are slowing down [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates in the short term, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in December if economic data weakens significantly [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is preparing for a potential exit from high interest rate policies, although it is not anticipated to cut rates on July 30, especially with active job creation and concerns over tariffs potentially driving prices up [2]. - Inflation signals are expected to emerge between July and September, with tariffs likely impacting CPI data, potentially leading to a month-on-month increase of 0.4% to 0.5% [2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term, influenced by the Federal Reserve's stance and upcoming employment data, with potential upward movements against low-yield currencies [4][5]. - If the labor market shows resilience, the USD/JPY pair could rise to 150, while the USD/CHF may increase to 0.81, depending on risk appetite and ongoing arbitrage trading [4].

纳比乌林娜还透露，俄罗斯央行已将今年和明年的俄罗斯石油价格预期下调至每桶55美元。 俄罗斯央行降息后，卢布兑美元汇率持续走弱。汇率方面，纳比乌林娜表示，高利率维持了卢布资产的 吸引力，结合进口需求放缓，确保了卢布汇率的稳定。 俄罗斯央行表示，通胀压力正在以快于预期的速度下降，国内需求增长也在放缓，劳动力市场也出现一 些软化迹象，尽管失业率处于历史低位，但企业用工短缺现象正在减少。 俄罗斯央行预计，2025年通胀将降至6.0%-7.0%，并在2026年回到4.0%的目标水平。尽管通胀已出现下 行逆转，但俄罗斯央行认为要将通胀可持续地降至2026年的4%目标，还需要维持紧缩的货币政策。 分析师预计，2026年俄罗斯央行平均关键利率可能会降至12.0%至13.0%的区间。 俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌林娜在降息后表示，未来每次会议都可能降息，幅度可能在100至200个基点之 间，但也可能暂停。她强调，未来的降息路径将取决于通胀稳定的程度、通胀预期的水平以及是否出现 新的通胀冲击。 纳比乌林娜指出，总体来看通胀上行风险仍占主导，但俄罗斯央行也会考虑信贷和需求降温快于预期的 下行风险。而由于欧佩克+政策的变化，预计原油出口复苏 ...

特朗普认为鲍威尔可能已准备好降息。 ...

美国总统特朗普：昨天鲍威尔给人的印象是，他可能准备降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates after eight rate cuts is deemed reasonable by Governing Council member Nagel [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank has implemented eight interest rate cuts prior to the current decision [1] - Maintaining the current interest rate is seen as a strategic move in response to economic conditions [1] - The decision reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy amid ongoing economic challenges [1]

特朗普再度施压降息，黄金"深蹲"何时结束？黄金日内下跌再度延续，短线是否见底？立即观看超V推 荐官Jason的分析，马上进入直播间>>> 相关链接 ...

俄罗斯央行25日宣布降息200个基点至18%，这是俄央行自今年六月以来第二次下调关键利率。(央视新 闻) ...

《华尔街日报》近期刊发了一篇深度分析文章，探讨了特朗普政府与美联储之间日益激化的冲突。 华尔街日报资深市场专栏作家James Mackintosh在文章中详细剖析了白宫对美联储主席鲍威尔施压降息的策略及其可能产生的适得其反效果。 Mackintosh通过对市场数据和政策机制的深入分析，揭示了一个看似矛盾的现象： 特朗普越是公开施压美联储，反而越难达成其降息目标 。文章认为 ， 这场 争端本质上反映了制度独立性与民粹主义之间的根本分歧。 据Mackintosh统计，在特朗普呼吁降息3个百分点的第二天，纽约联储衡量的10年期期限溢价升至0.84个百分点，高于他在4月份类似攻击后回落时的0.6个百 分点，更远高于去年选举前一个月的零水平。 Mackintosh指出，特朗普近几周来加大了对鲍威尔的攻击力度，希望推动美联储降息。然而，文章称，" 他喊得越响，越不可能得到他真正想要的：更低的政 府借贷成本和更便宜的抵押贷款。 "这种施压策略可能正在破坏投资者信心，推高长期债券收益率。 文章强调，这场冲突的核心在于两种截然不同的治理理念碰撞。特朗普的观点体现了"人民的声音就是上帝的声音"这一民粹主义理念，而美联储则恰恰相反 ...