Group 1 - The U.S. labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months, which is better than market expectations but below the 12-month average of 149,000 jobs per month [1][2] - The U.S. Labor Department significantly revised down the employment data for March and April, reducing the combined job growth for these two months by 95,000 [1] - Employment growth in May was primarily driven by the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors, which collectively added 126,000 jobs [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing and retail sectors, which are closely tied to trade, showed signs of weakness, with manufacturing losing 8,000 jobs and retail shedding 6,500 jobs [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees in May was $36.24, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - The cautious sentiment surrounding the May employment data reflects businesses' uncertainty regarding trade policies and economic growth [2]

美东时间6月2日，美联储官员就降息条件释放最新信号。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，若特朗普政府关税措施未如预期激进，美联储或在未来 15个月内明显降息。他指出，当前美国经济基本面良好，劳动力市场强劲且通胀数据温和（4月PCE同比上涨2.1%），但关税影响尚未完全显 现，"不敢断言其影响是暂时的"。 当前美联储正处于"观望期"，市场原期待其借机释放政策信号，但鲍威尔的"沉默"被解读为等待本周五公布的美国5月非农就业报告。近期劳动力 市场数据已现疲软迹象，若非农数据进一步印证就业市场降温，或为美联储下半年降息提供依据。 【环球网财经综合报道】今日凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储国际金融司成立75周年活动上发表讲话，但未就利率政策或经济前景释放新信 号。市场分析认为，鲍威尔此举旨在避免在关键数据发布前扰动市场预期。与此同时，美联储其他官员近期表态暗示，关税政策走向或成未来降 息的重要变量。 分析人士指出，鲍威尔的"缄口"与美联储官员的表态分化，反映出政策制定者在通胀压力与经济韧性之间的权衡。关税政策的不确定性或成美联 储后续决策的核心变量，若贸易摩擦升级导致通胀超预期反弹，降息时点可能进一步推迟。投资者需密切关注本周五 ...

Group 1 - The latest data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with continued unemployment claims rising to 1.92 million, the highest level since November 2021, exceeding economists' expectations of 1.89 million, suggesting potential pressure on the labor market [1] - The increase in unemployment claims has not yet shown a significant impact in the non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate in April at 4.2%, the highest since July of the previous year, but this increase has not raised widespread market concerns [1][3] - Analysts believe the current labor market trend reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" state, with initial unemployment claims slightly up by 14,000 to 240,000, indicating that the overall economy is still absorbing labor despite a slowdown [3] Group 2 - Experts anticipate that the labor market may face more noticeable pressure in the coming months, particularly with the release of non-farm employment data and expectations of economic growth slowing in the second half of the year [5] - The dynamics of the labor market are becoming crucial for observing future economic trends, influenced by high inflation, rising interest rates, and global trade uncertainties [3]

Core Viewpoint - OCBC maintains its expectation of three rate cuts in 2023, each by 25 basis points, but delays the first cut from Q2 to Q3 due to the current economic conditions [1][4]. Inflation Trends - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, lower than the expected 0.3%, with the year-on-year increase in overall CPI decreasing from 2.4% to 2.3% [2]. - Housing prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing to over half of the overall increase, while energy prices rose, offsetting declines in gasoline prices [2]. - Core CPI year-on-year growth remains at 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation in core services, while core goods prices have turned positive with a growth of 0.13% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, which is above market expectations but not robust [3]. - The unemployment rate remains at a cyclical high of 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month [3]. - The job vacancy rate fell to 4.3%, indicating a gradual easing of labor market tightness, with the job-to-unemployment ratio dropping to 1.02, suggesting potential impacts on unemployment if vacancies continue to decline [3]. Market Expectations - Market concerns about a U.S. recession have significantly eased, with the probability of recession dropping from 65% in early April to 38% currently [4]. - Interest rate futures reflect a cooling of rate cut expectations, with only 54 basis points of cuts priced in for the year, down from over 100 basis points in April [4]. - The expectation for a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting has been fully priced out, with only a 40% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [4]. Treasury Yield Predictions - OCBC has slightly raised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields due to the delayed rate cut expectations and improved market sentiment, but maintains a medium-term outlook of moderate decline [5]. - The report emphasizes that while the U.S. economy is not in a full recession, there are clear signs of slowing growth and persistent core inflation [5]. - Future economic data will be closely monitored, particularly regarding labor market conditions and service inflation, which could trigger policy adjustments [5].