2月27日(周五)，美元指数延续弱势整理，整体维持偏弱格局，非美货币普遍获得支撑。当前美元走势 呈现"短期承压、长期趋弱"的特征，核心是多空因素交织，政策不确定性主导短期走势，基本面韧性提 供底部支撑，中长期则面临结构性贬值压力。 核心基本面方面，两大因素主导走势：一是美国贸易政策反复，近期关税相关裁定与新政策信号叠加， 加剧全球贸易不确定性，压制美元信用与市场风险偏好，同时美国贸易逆差问题持续存在，进一步放大 美元贬值压力；二是美联储政策预期分歧明显，降息预期延后，官员表态偏向谨慎，政策摇摆增加市场 观望情绪，削弱美元上行动力。此外，美国就业市场稳健、经济复苏具备韧性，是支撑美元避免大幅下 跌的关键，但仅能限制下行空间，无法扭转短期弱势。 技术面来看，美元指数中期下行趋势明确，短期空头主导走势。均线呈空头排列，进一步强化弱势格 局，虽处于超卖区域，但未出现明确止跌信号，反弹力度有限，且反弹过程中易受阻力压制，整体弱势 格局难改。短期需关注关键支撑区域的防守情况，若失守将进一步打开下行空间。 后市展望，美元指数短期仍以承压为主，反弹易遇阻。后续方向取决于美国通胀数据、美联储政策动向 及贸易政策落地情况，中长期 ...

Group 1 - The political atmosphere in the U.S. is heating up as midterm elections approach, with voters expressing pessimism about the current economic situation, particularly regarding high prices and living costs [2] - Trump's recent State of the Union address aimed to boost confidence by highlighting improvements in economic indicators such as income growth and inflation reduction, despite the reality showing mixed results [2][4] - There is a noticeable gap between marginal improvements in economic data and the public's perception of purchasing power, contributing to cautious market sentiment [2] Group 2 - Trade policy remains a contentious issue, with the Supreme Court's rejection of global tariffs imposing constraints on government trade strategies, yet the White House plans to pursue import restrictions through other legal avenues [3] - Concerns about inflation are heightened as tariffs typically pass costs onto businesses and consumers, potentially leading to secondary inflationary pressures [3] - The political landscape is marked by increasing polarization within Congress over immigration, budget, and enforcement issues, complicating the policy advancement process [3] Group 3 - Trump's proposed domestic initiatives include providing matching savings for workers not covered by corporate retirement plans and limiting congressional members' trading in individual stocks, though the fiscal sources and implementation paths for these measures remain unclear [4] - The narrative of economic recovery and strength is being emphasized to stabilize confidence, while voters and markets are reassessing risks based on inflation, employment, and policy uncertainty [4] - The current U.S. policy environment's uncertainty is becoming a significant variable affecting exchange rates and capital flows, with potential for increased volatility in the dollar and a fluctuating international market [4]

2月24日，周二亚盘时段现货黄金（Gold）走势呈现明显的冲高回落特征。黄金在触及5230美元月度高 点后迅速回调，结束此前连续上涨行情。市场资金开始从短线追涨转向获利了结，导致金价上涨斜率明 显放缓。美国货币政策仍是影响黄金走势的核心变量。美联储近期会议纪要显示，多位官员认为，在通 胀回落趋势未完全稳定前，不应急于推进新一轮宽松周期。 与此同时，美国贸易政策变化也对市场情绪产生影响。美国总统特朗普提出新的全球关税计划，使市场 对全球经济增长前景产生担忧。虽然经济增长放缓通常会提升黄金避险需求，但当前市场交易逻辑更多 受到美元流动性与利率预期主导。地缘政治方面，中东地区局势仍然存在潜在冲突风险，市场持续关注 美伊核谈判进展。潜在军事冲突风险通常会提升避险资产需求，为黄金提供中长期支撑。总体来看，黄 金当前处于宏观不确定性支撑与货币政策压制的双重博弈阶段。 从日线级别观察，黄金整体趋势结构仍然偏多，但短期已进入上涨后的结构性调整周期。价格在5238美 元附近形成阶段性高点后开始回落，显示短期多头动能逐渐衰减。均线系统方面，黄金仍运行在中长期 均线之上，但价格与均线之间出现明显距离。短期均线虽仍维持向上趋势，但价 ...

财通证券分析师张伟、任思雨在月24日发布的最新研报中，剖析了特朗普政府在关税法律战失利后的迅速转向。对于全球投资者而言，这篇报告 不仅揭示了美国贸易政策的底层博弈逻辑，更指出了在中期选举年背景下，白宫正试图在摇摇欲坠的财政赤字和愤怒的选民通胀感知之间，通过 法律游戏寻找平衡。 据新华社报道，在美国最高法院否决特朗普政府此前依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的关税安排后，特朗普政府迅速援引《1974年 贸易法》第122条，对全球进口商品设置10%统一关税；特朗普随后表示将把税率提高到15%。 财通证券指出，特朗普在关税法律战失利后迅速启用税率更低的第122条款替代违宪的IEEPA，实为 "虚空造牌"——通过制造谈判筹码维持高压， 为中期选举争取选票。 | | 301 调查 | 232 调查 | 122 条款 | 338 条款 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 法律依据 | 1974年《贸易法》第 301 条 | 1962年《贸易扩展法》第 232 条 | 1974年《贸易法》第 122 条 | 1930年《斯穆特-霍利关税法》第 | | | | | | 338 条 ...

美国贸易政策前景不明令市场情绪承压，美股三大指数集体低开，纳指跌0.03%，道指跌0.31%，标普 500指数跌0.03%。科技股普跌，特斯拉、甲骨文跌超1%。诺和诺德大跌15%，该公司新一代减肥药 CagriSema的试验效果不及礼来的Zepbound。 ...

特朗普周一中午左右在社交媒体发文称，美国已与印度达成新的贸易协议，将下调对进口印度商品的关税。尽管如此，市场对美国贸易 政策可能出现"破坏性转向"的担忧仍在。 此前，1月还出现了意外的关税风波：特朗普威胁对北约中的欧洲盟友加征额外关税，原因是这些盟友反对其"收购格陵兰"的努力。虽然 特朗普随后收回威胁，但外汇市场的波动已引发关于美元稳定性的质疑。 衡量美元兑其他主要货币的ICE美元指数周一上涨0.6%，但过去一个月仍下跌接近1%。过去12个月，DXY已下跌约10%。 周一(2月2日)在美国经济仍具韧性、且近期通胀"黏性"迹象再现的背景下，美元试图反弹——但这并不意味着美元今年正在以"避险资 产"的身份重新走强。 美元1月的下跌所反映的疲弱，可能仍会延续，因为投资者对这一全球储备货币的信心或已受到一定冲击。 (来源：FactSet） 巴克莱分析师在本周的一份报告中指出，今年美元的回落不同于去年4月至6月那波大幅抛售。当时，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普推出"解放 日"关税，冲击了全球贸易秩序；市场预期这些关税将"对美国经济造成显著打击"，并导致更宽松的货币政策。 分析师写道："这一次，美元走弱发生在经济仍表现出强劲韧性 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Johnson Electric Holdings Limited 德昌電機控股有限公司 * (在百慕達註冊成立之有限公司) (股份代號: 179) 25/26 財政年度第三季度 業務及未經審核財務資料 德昌電機控股有限公司（「德昌電機」或「本公司」，連同其附屬公司統稱「本集 團」）發出此公告，內容有關本集團截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止九個月之業務營運及選 定之未經審核財務資料。 本公司董事會認為刊發最新季度銷售表現與國際企業披露的最佳常規一致。此公告旨 在提升透明度，並確保投資者及潛在投資者在同一時間平等地取得相同的信息。 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止九個月，本集團營業額為 2,726 百萬美元，對比上一財政年度 同期之 2,730 百萬美元，下跌約 4 百萬美元。期內，受惠於匯率變動，本集團營業額增 加 40 百萬美元。 汽車產品組別之銷售 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经纽约1月2日电（记者刘亚南） 由于市场交易保持清淡和市场人气未有明显改善，纽约股市三 大股指2日高开，早盘走势出现分化，收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌不一。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨319.10点，收于48382.39点，涨幅为0.66%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨12.97点，收于6858.47点，涨幅为0.19%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌6.362点，收 于23235.629点，跌幅为0.03%。 哈特菲尔德认为，标普500指数在2026年年底将达到8000点。随着区域性银行跑赢大市和特斯拉等高估 值科技股表现落后，股市上涨将更为平衡。除了科技，有其他题材在2026年非常有可能成为热点。 德意志银行分析师认为，除了人工智能以外，美国贸易政策尤其是美国最高法院关于特朗普关税措施合 法性的裁决等可能会塑造2026年的市场。随着特朗普预计提名新一任美联储主席人选，美联储将会是另 一个关注焦点。 美国利普乐金融集团（LPL Financial）的首席技术策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特（Adam Turnquist）表示，由 于利率升至令人不适的水平，股市新年开局不顺。如果美国1 ...

Core Insights - Japanese chemical companies are facing a decline in both revenue and profit due to multiple market challenges, including global economic slowdown and uncertainties from U.S. trade policies [1][4] Company Performance Summary - **Mitsubishi Chemical**: Achieved a remarkable net profit increase of 169% year-on-year, rising from 40.9 billion yen to 110.1 billion yen, despite a 10.5% decline in revenue to 1.79 trillion yen. The company benefited from China's economic stimulus and positive fiscal spending in some European countries, but overall economic growth remains under pressure due to U.S. trade policies [1] - **Shin-Etsu Chemical**: Experienced a slight revenue increase of 1.4% to 1.28 trillion yen, but net profit fell by 12.3% to 257.8 billion yen, with operating profit down 17.7% to 333.9 billion yen. The company attributed its performance challenges to global economic turmoil caused by U.S. policies and recent export control measures from China [1] - **Toray Industries**: Reported a significant net profit drop of 25% to 58.1 billion yen, with revenue declining by 4.6% to 1.23 trillion yen. The fiber and textile segment showed resilience with a 1.7% increase in operating profit, but the industrial applications market has not fully recovered, prompting the company to initiate cost-cutting measures [2] - **Sumitomo Chemical**: Achieved a turnaround with net profit of 39.6 billion yen, compared to a net loss of 6.5 billion yen in the previous year, despite an 11.8% revenue decline to 1 trillion yen. The core business and green materials segment faced challenges due to maintenance shutdowns and exit from aluminum business, leading to a 27% revenue drop in that segment [2] - **Mitsui Chemicals**: Experienced a significant revenue decline of 8.6% to 813.6 billion yen and a drastic net profit drop of 65% to 7.8 billion yen. The decline was attributed to lower product prices due to falling raw material costs, reduced sales in core and green materials, and impairment losses related to investments in phenol business in China [3] - **Asahi Kasei**: Reported a 7% revenue decline to 637.8 billion yen and a 33.3% drop in operating profit to 31 billion yen. While sales in the electronics sector contributed positively, negative factors such as inventory valuation adjustments and maintenance shutdowns offset gains [3] - **Tosoh**: Showed poor performance with a 5.4% revenue decline to 499.1 billion yen and a 70.4% drop in net profit to 7.3 billion yen. The decline was driven by a stronger yen, lower product prices due to falling raw material costs, and reduced shipments due to extended maintenance at its Nanyo plant [3] Industry Overview - Overall, Japanese chemical companies are under significant pressure from U.S. trade policy uncertainties, weak global demand, raw material price fluctuations, and periodic maintenance of production facilities. Only a few companies have managed to achieve localized improvements through business structure optimization or breakthroughs in niche markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by the U.S. Senate to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy highlights the ongoing volatility of U.S. trade policy, which oscillates between protectionism and openness, driven by conflicting interests among various economic groups [2][3][4]. Group 1: The Eternal Struggle of Interest Groups - James Madison's insights in "The Federalist Papers" reveal that trade policy is fundamentally a conflict among different economic interest groups, including landowners, manufacturers, and financial sectors [3][4]. - The historical context shows that trade policy has been a source of intense political conflict in the U.S., as it directly impacts money and jobs, benefiting some industries while harming others [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Policy Shifts - U.S. trade policy has evolved through three distinct eras, each prioritizing different goals: revenue generation through tariffs, protection of domestic manufacturers, and reciprocal trade agreements to reduce barriers [8][9]. - Major external shocks, such as the Civil War and the Great Depression, have led to significant shifts in trade policy objectives, reflecting the political realignments of the time [9]. Group 3: Stability of Trade Policy - The stability of U.S. trade policy is influenced by the country's economic geography and political system, where different regions have specialized economic activities that shape their trade interests [11][12]. - The political structure makes it challenging to change established policies, leading to a tendency to maintain the status quo despite ongoing debates and conflicts among interest groups [11][12]. Group 4: The Interplay of Economics and Politics - Understanding U.S. trade policy requires an analysis of both economic and political factors, as historical and political contexts significantly influence policy outcomes [13][14]. - The book "The Conflict of Trade" serves as a comprehensive framework for understanding the complexities of U.S. trade policy, emphasizing the interplay of lobbying, regional interests, and political calculations [16].