终止特朗普全面关税，是谁左右了美国的贸易政策？ 当地时间10月30日，美国参议院以51票赞同、47票反对的结果通过决议，宣布 终止美国总统特朗普在全球 范围内实施的全面关税政策。 这一决定，再次将美国贸易政策的摇摆性推至舆论中心。 这并非美国贸易史上的"第一次"，也绝不会是"最后一次"。 为何美国的贸易政策总在"保护"与"开放"间摇摆？谁在幕后推动关税的涨跌？早在1787年，《联邦党人文 集》便揭示了答案：贸易政策本质是不同利益集团的冲突。正如经济学家道格拉斯·欧文在《贸易的冲突》 中所言："美国因贸易立国，为贸易而战，凭借贸易支撑全球霸权。"这部耗时十年完成的巨著，以经济学与 政治学的双重视角，解构了美国贸易政策两百年来的权力逻辑。 01 利益集团的永恒博弈——麦迪逊预言的现实映照 在《联邦党人文集》第十章里，詹姆斯•麦迪逊注意到每个社会都存在不同的经济利益集团，这些集团经常 对政府政策持有相互激烈冲突的看法："土地利益集团、制造业利益集团、商业利益集团、金融利益集团， 以及其他许多较弱小的利益集团，必然在各个文明国家中成长起来，并把社会分为不同的阶级，由不同的 情感和观点驱动。"他指出："管理这些多种多样 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by the U.S. Senate to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy highlights the ongoing volatility of U.S. trade policy, which oscillates between protectionism and openness, driven by conflicting interests among various economic groups [2][3][4]. Group 1: The Eternal Struggle of Interest Groups - James Madison's insights in "The Federalist Papers" reveal that trade policy is fundamentally a conflict among different economic interest groups, including landowners, manufacturers, and financial sectors [3][4]. - The historical context shows that trade policy has been a source of intense political conflict in the U.S., as it directly impacts money and jobs, with certain industries benefiting while others suffer [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Policy Shifts - U.S. trade policy has evolved through three distinct eras, each prioritizing different goals: revenue generation through tariffs, protection of domestic manufacturers, and reciprocal trade agreements to reduce barriers [8][9]. - Major external shocks, such as the Civil War and the Great Depression, have significantly shifted the focus of trade policy, demonstrating the influence of political realignments on trade objectives [9]. Group 3: Stability of Trade Policy - The stability of U.S. trade policy is attributed to the country's economic geography and political system, where different regions have specialized economic activities that shape their trade interests [11][12]. - The political structure makes it challenging to change established policies, leading to a tendency to maintain the status quo despite ongoing debates and conflicts among interest groups [11][12]. Group 4: The Role of Political and Economic Factors - Understanding U.S. trade policy requires an analysis of both economic and political factors, as historical context and the legislative process significantly influence policy outcomes [13][14]. - The book "The Conflict of Trade" emphasizes the importance of examining the political and economic interactions that shape trade policy, rather than focusing solely on specific policy outcomes [14][15].

Core Insights - The German Economic Expert Committee forecasts weak economic growth for Germany in 2025 and 2026, lower than previous expectations, attributing this to U.S. tariff policies hindering recovery [1][3]. Economic Performance - The report indicates that Germany's GDP growth for this year is projected at 0.2%, with a revised forecast of 0.9% for 2026, down from an earlier estimate of 1% and below the German government's expectation of 1.3% [3]. - After two years of recession, Germany's economy is experiencing minimal growth, necessitating improvements in productivity, innovation, and investment to return to a growth trajectory [3]. Global Trade and Protectionism - The current global economic landscape is characterized by protectionist tendencies and unpredictable U.S. trade policies, negatively impacting Germany as an export-oriented nation [5]. - The decline in global trade poses significant challenges for Germany, which has not benefited from the economic recovery in import and export markets due to U.S. tariffs and the appreciation of the euro [5]. Domestic Economic Measures - The German government has implemented a series of economic stimulus measures, including increased investment, simplified approval processes, and expanded infrastructure projects [7]. - However, experts argue that to overcome low growth, Germany must achieve breakthroughs in digitalization, reduce energy costs, and enhance foreign trade, as short-term stimulus measures may not yield long-term results [7]. Recommendations for Future Growth - The German Economic Expert Committee emphasizes the need to eliminate trade barriers within the EU, strengthen capital markets, and address fragmentation in the defense market to fully leverage opportunities in the European single market [5].

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has voted to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, with a vote of 51 in favor and 47 against, signaling a potential shift in U.S. trade policy [3] - Despite the Senate's decision, the House of Representatives, controlled by Republicans, is likely to block the resolution, making it difficult to overturn Trump's policies [5] - U.S. Trade Representative Tai has stated that investigations into China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement will continue, indicating ongoing scrutiny of China's trade practices [5][7] - The U.S. is using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to investigate China's adherence to commitments regarding intellectual property and agricultural purchases, suggesting a continuation of aggressive trade tactics [7] - The recent developments reflect a complex U.S. trade strategy that combines conciliatory gestures with continued pressure on China, indicating that the trade relationship remains contentious [9] Summary by Sections U.S. Senate Actions - The Senate passed a resolution to end Trump's global tariff policy, aiming to alleviate economic pressures caused by trade wars [3] - Previous resolutions to remove tariffs on Canada and Brazil were also passed, indicating a broader shift in trade policy [3] House of Representatives Dynamics - The Republican-controlled House is expected to block the Senate's resolution, making it unlikely for the tariff termination to proceed [5] - Overturning a potential presidential veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers, which poses significant challenges [5] Ongoing Investigations - U.S. Trade Representative Tai confirmed that investigations into China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement are ongoing, initiated under the previous administration [5][7] - The investigations focus on China's commitments related to intellectual property and agricultural purchases, suggesting a strategy to maintain leverage in negotiations [7] Trade Policy Implications - The U.S. is employing a dual strategy of offering conciliatory measures while simultaneously investigating and pressuring China, reflecting a complex trade relationship [9] - The approach indicates that the U.S. is attempting to manage its trade narrative while maintaining a hardline stance on compliance issues [9]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on November 5 regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is seen as a critical test of Trump's economic policies, which could reshape U.S. trade dynamics and have significant implications for the global economy [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Perspectives - Nearly 50 economists, including former Federal Reserve Chairs Bernanke and Yellen, have urged the Supreme Court to overturn the tariffs, arguing that they are based on a fundamental misunderstanding of global economics [4]. - The economists contend that trade deficits are a result of macroeconomic imbalances rather than a security threat, and that tariffs have led to increased costs for American households, raising annual expenses by $2,400 [4][5]. - The potential ruling could require the U.S. government to refund between $750 billion to $1 trillion in tariffs, which would have catastrophic effects on the Treasury and could undermine existing trade agreements [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, gold prices experienced significant volatility, initially dropping below $4,070 before rising above $4,110, only to decline again [1]. - The CPI data for September showed a year-over-year increase of 3%, which was below expectations, and core inflation rose by only 0.2%, the slowest growth in three months [6][7]. - The release of the CPI data has cleared the way for anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as indicated by previous comments from Fed Chair Powell [7]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Investment Trends - Despite a historic drop in gold prices, gold funds saw record inflows, attracting $8.7 billion in a week, with total inflows over the past four months reaching $50 billion, surpassing the cumulative inflows of the previous 14 years [10][13]. - In the context of broader market trends, stock funds are projected to attract $693 billion, cash funds $1.1 trillion, and gold funds $108 billion in inflows, marking significant historical records [13][14]. - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies has become a central factor in market volatility, challenging investors' asset allocation strategies [14].

Core Insights - The current U.S. trade policies are causing significant instability in domestic and global supply chains, impacting port operations, goods exports, and business confidence [1][2] - The Port of Los Angeles has seen a year-on-year increase of approximately 5% in cargo volume, but this is overshadowed by over 100 trade and tariff announcements from the U.S. government causing chaotic fluctuations [1] - High tariff policies have led to a "stop-and-go" effect in trade, with businesses awaiting clarity on regulations before making decisions [1][2] Trade and Tariff Impact - The recent trade policies have resulted in a decrease in demand for U.S. exports, as traditional trading partners are shifting to other countries for procurement [1] - For instance, countries are sourcing soybeans from Brazil and Argentina, and almonds from Australia instead of the U.S. [1] Business Confidence and Investment - Business confidence across the U.S. is fragile due to the impact of trade policies, leading to a slowdown in capital investment and hiring processes [2] - Companies are reportedly pausing long-term decisions and investments while waiting for trade policy stability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. trade policies are causing significant instability in domestic and global supply chains, impacting port operations, goods exports, and business confidence [1][2] Group 1: Port Operations - The Port of Los Angeles has seen a year-on-year increase of approximately 5% in cargo volume, but this is overshadowed by over 100 trade and tariff announcements from the U.S. government causing chaotic fluctuations [1] - High tariff policies have led to a "brake" effect, where businesses are hesitant to act until there is clarity on tariff implementations [1] Group 2: Goods Exports - The U.S. government's trade policies are negatively affecting exports, as evidenced by a decrease in demand for U.S. products from traditional trading partners, who are now sourcing from other countries like Brazil and Argentina for soybeans and Australia for almonds [1] - The weakening dollar typically enhances the competitiveness of U.S. goods abroad, but current trade policies have created an "anomalous" situation where this is not occurring [1] Group 3: Business Confidence - Business confidence across the U.S. is fragile due to the impacts of trade policies, with many companies reporting a pause in operations [2] - There is a notable decline in capital investment, prolonged decision-making processes, and slow hiring rates as businesses await stabilization in trade policies to understand the rules and proceed with their plans [2]

Core Viewpoint - The interim financial results of Xiangjiang Electric (02619) for the six months ending June 30, 2025, show a decline in performance, marking the company's first financial report since its listing [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the reporting period was 543 million yuan, a decrease of 11.7% from 614 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - Gross profit fell from 137 million yuan to 108 million yuan, representing a decline of 21.7% [1] - Net profit decreased from 60.5 million yuan to 25.3 million yuan, a drop of 58.2% [1] Group 2: Reasons for Decline - The primary reason for the revenue decline was the uncertainty caused by U.S. trade policies [1] - The drop in gross profit was attributed to a decrease in both sales volume and overall gross margin [1] - The sales volume decreased by 15.4%, from 10.6 million units in the six months ending June 30, 2024, to 9 million units in the same period of 2025 [2] Group 3: Operational Costs - Administrative expenses increased by 20.9% to 55.4 million yuan, up from 45.8 million yuan in the previous year, mainly due to the addition of management personnel for production facilities in China and Indonesia [2] - Sales expenses decreased by 17.1% to 12.4 million yuan, down from 14.9 million yuan, primarily due to reduced sales personnel costs resulting from lower sales volume [2] - Exchange gains fell by 49.2% to 4.5 million yuan due to overall currency fluctuations during the reporting period [2] Group 4: Historical Performance - Prior to the listing, the company's net profit showed consistent growth, with figures of 71.8 million yuan, 80.26 million yuan, 121.5 million yuan, and 140.4 million yuan from 2021 to 2024 [3]

Group 1 - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with a notable decline in gasoline prices helping to moderate overall inflation, while rising prices for other goods indicate the impact of the Trump administration's expansionary tariffs on consumers [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing June's 2.9% and significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2] - The prices of non-food and non-gasoline commodities increased for the second consecutive month by 0.2% in July, with specific categories like footwear experiencing a notable rise of 1.4%, the highest monthly increase in over four years [3] Group 2 - The tariffs are expected to lead to significant price increases for consumers, with projections indicating a 40% rise in shoe prices and a 38% rise in clothing prices by 2025 due to the tariffs [3][5] - Furniture and bedding prices rose by 0.9% in July, while outdoor equipment prices surged by 2.2%, marking the highest increase in over two years [3] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. is anticipated to reach around 3.5% by the end of the year, driven by rising retail prices for imported goods such as furniture, toys, and appliances [5] Group 3 - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to reach 17.3%, the highest level since 1935, due to the series of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [6] - Economists expect that the high tariffs will lead to a gradual increase in prices rather than an immediate spike, indicating a slow decline in purchasing power for consumers [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on prices is expected to be more of a one-time adjustment rather than a continuous acceleration in inflation, as companies will recalibrate costs and share the burden with consumers [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, stated that U.S. trade policies are characterized by "unpredictability" [1] Group 1 - The unpredictability of U.S. trade policies may impact Canadian businesses and the overall economy [1] - Macklem's comments highlight concerns regarding the stability of trade relations between Canada and the U.S. [1] - The statement reflects broader uncertainties in the global trade environment that could affect investment decisions [1]