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刘刚:“对等关税”后的全球市场2025下半年投资机会前瞻
2025-05-30 16:09
Summary of Conference Call Minutes Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the global market impact of the "reciprocal tariff" policy Core Points and Arguments - The recent tariff reduction from 145% to 10% exceeded expectations, alleviating short-term market concerns, but medium to long-term risks related to trade restrictions need monitoring, particularly around key dates in July and August [1][2] - The U.S. effective tax rate has decreased to 16-17%, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [2] - The performance of U.S. stocks, particularly in the tech sector, has rebounded quickly, suggesting that previous recession fears may have been overstated [4] - The current market is characterized by limited upward momentum and constrained downside potential, indicating a state of indecision [2] - The liquidity shock is viewed as an occasional event that presents buying opportunities, with central bank interventions typically proving effective [4] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The recommendation to focus on sectors with strong end-demand and technology innovation, while also capitalizing on short-term trading opportunities in Hong Kong stocks [1] - The expectation that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate will decline to 3.5-4% by year-end, with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering rates 1-2 times in Q4 [4] - The suggestion to wait for U.S. Treasury yields to rise to 4.8-5% before making long positions, as the current yield of 4.5% is deemed unattractive [5][8] - The impact of tariff adjustments on China's market is projected to reduce GDP influence from 3% to 1-1.5%, with Hong Kong's earnings being less affected than A-shares [7][9] - Recommendations for gold investment strategies include dollar-cost averaging or grid trading, given the high levels of market congestion [6][9]
美股持续上扬,标普500指数涨幅扩大至2%、纳指涨2.45%、道指涨1.64%。特斯拉(TSLA.O)现涨近7%。
news flash· 2025-05-27 17:56
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues to rise, with significant gains in major indices, indicating a positive market sentiment and investor confidence [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has increased by 2% [1] - The Nasdaq index has risen by 2.45% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 1.64% [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Tesla (TSLA.O) shares have surged nearly 7% [1]
欢迎进入链接网页右侧下载本周财经数据与事件精美周历壁纸:今日美股休市
news flash· 2025-05-26 00:20
欢迎进入链接网页右侧下载本周财经数据与事件精美周历壁纸:今日美股休市 相关链接 ...
千方百计稳美债,美国核心利益驱动下,各资产如何波动?
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-25 12:01
本篇评级为★★★,主要围绕以下内容展开: 1、千方百计稳美债,美国核心利益驱动下,各资产如何波动? 这个周末国际上发生了许多大波动,我们来看一下国内外市场会受到什么样的共振。先说一下结论:国 际上或许会面临很多变局,但对于国内投资市场来说,可能会在动荡中保持相对的平静。我们具体来看 一下消息。 首先,我们看一下美国这边。特朗普再次放出"幺蛾子",这次矛头直指欧洲。大家看到,特朗普扬言从 6月1日开始,也就是几天之后,对欧洲加征50%的关税。这很有可能会让美国股票市场再次经历向下的 波动。另外,对美元指数来说,也会形成无形中的压力。按照逻辑推演,所有美国资产可能在这个时候 都会向下波动。但个人认为,这一次美国国债很可能会逃过一劫。 为什么这么说呢?我们来看一下,每次美国拿出关税大棒的时候,都要面对一个两难选择,很可能 会"杀敌一千,自损八百"。上一次美国提出关税问题时,所有美元资产都出现了向下的重大压力。那么 这一次,为什么又轻易地拿出关税这个手段去尝试呢?难道不担心美元资产再次出现大幅波动吗?我们 推测,在这次美国的政策选择中,可能会有所取舍,有保有压。在一定程度上,美国国债是它要维护的 核心利益。 与之相反 ...
【美股大幅低开 苹果跌3%】5月23日讯,美股三大股指低开,道指跌1.1%,标普500指数跌1.2%,纳指跌1.5%。科技股全面走低,苹果(AAPL.O)跌3.3%,特朗普威胁对苹果征税。英伟达(NVDA.O)跌2.2%,亚马逊(AMZN.O)跌2.2%,特斯拉(TSLA.O)跌1.4%。罗斯百货跌超8%,公司撤回年度指引。
news flash· 2025-05-23 13:34
金十数据5月23日讯,美股三大股指低开,道指跌1.1%,标普500指数跌1.2%,纳指跌1.5%。科技股全 面走低,苹果(AAPL.O)跌3.3%,特朗普威胁对苹果征税。英伟达(NVDA.O)跌2.2%,亚马逊(AMZN.O) 跌2.2%,特斯拉(TSLA.O)跌1.4%。罗斯百货跌超8%,公司撤回年度指引。 美股大幅低开 苹果跌3% ...