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Group 1 - The market has experienced a significant rally, up 35% since April, raising questions about the sustainability of this growth and the potential for future rate cuts [1][4][5] - There is ambiguity regarding whether the market anticipates a rate cut due to the Federal Reserve's ability or necessity, influenced by uneven labor market data [2][3] - Projections suggest a trough in growth towards the end of the year, with GDP expected to stabilize around 1.5% by 2026, alongside a peak in inflation [3][5] Group 2 - The AI trade is highlighted as a dominant factor in market performance, potentially overshadowing macroeconomic and interest rate influences [4] - There is a notable presence of skeptics regarding the near-term durability of the market rally, which could be beneficial for long-term stability [5] - If the market were to ignore a potential rate cut announcement, it could indicate overconfidence and increase the likelihood of a market pullback in October [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the issuance volume in the primary market of Chinese offshore bonds rebounded, and the secondary market showed a slight increase. The yields of US Treasury bonds mostly fluctuated upwards. There were various macro - economic events globally, including inflation data, employment data, and central bank policies [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market - The issuance volume in the primary market of Chinese offshore bonds rebounded last week, with 11 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $3.02 billion. The largest issuance was an $800 million green bond issued by China Construction Bank Shipping and Aviation Financial Leasing [1][6][9]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Performance of Chinese USD Bond Indexes - The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese USD bond index rose 0.29% week - on - week, and the emerging market USD bond index rose 0.48%. The investment - grade index of Chinese USD bonds closed at 200.6015, with a weekly increase of 0.29%, and the high - yield index closed at 163.463, also with a weekly increase of 0.29%. - The Markit iBoxx Chinese USD bond return index rose 0.18% week - on - week. The investment - grade return index closed at 241.6623, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, and the high - yield return index closed at 245.3842, with a weekly increase of 0.20% [4][8][13]. 3.2.2 Performance of Various Industries of Chinese USD Bonds - The healthcare and materials sectors led the gains, while the consumer staples and real estate sectors led the losses. The yield of the healthcare sector decreased by 774.9 bps, and that of the materials sector decreased by 38.1 bps. The yield of the consumer staples sector increased by 927.5 bps, and that of the real estate sector increased by 43.5 bps [17]. 3.2.3 Performance of Different Ratings of Chinese USD Bonds - Investment - grade names generally rose. The yield of the A - rated bonds decreased by 15.2 bps weekly, and that of the BBB - rated bonds decreased by 2.5 bps. Most high - yield names rose. The yield of the BB - rated bonds decreased by 4.0 bps, and that of the DD+ to NR - rated bonds decreased by about 5.4 bps. The yield of non - rated names increased by 808.4 bps [19][20]. 3.2.4 Hot Events in the Bond Market Last Week - Fanhai Holding failed to repay RMB 32.865 billion in interest - bearing debts on schedule. - Zhengrong Real Estate had new progress in major enforcement information, with a target amount of RMB 614 million. - Longfor Group's overseas debt restructuring plan made significant progress, adding asset trust and convertible bond options [20][21][23]. 3.2.5 Rating Adjustments of Entities Last Week - There were multiple rating adjustments for companies such as Aomen Grand Lisboa, Huainan High - tech Holdings, Tencent Music, and others. The reasons for the adjustments included business performance, market position, and industry environment [25][27][28]. 3.3 US Treasury Bond Quotes - The report provides quotes for 30 US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months, sorted by yield to maturity from high to low [29]. 3.4 Macro Data Tracking - As of September 12, the yields of US Treasury bonds were as follows: 1 - year (T1) was 3.6507%, up 0.08 bps from last week; 2 - year (T2) was 3.5556%, up 4.64 bps; 5 - year (T5) was 3.6334%, up 5.17 bps; 10 - year (T10) was 4.0643%, down 0.99 bps [33]. 3.5 Macro News - US CPI in August was 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations. Initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021. - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, stating that the US has "no inflation." - US PPI declined 0.1% month - on - month in August, against an expected increase of 0.3%. - US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000 from March last year to March this year. - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026. - The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged. - Japan's Q2 real GDP was revised up to a 0.5% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. - China's CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year in August. The central bank announced that the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first eight months of 2025 was RMB 26.56 trillion. - China's goods trade import and export value increased 3.5% year - on - year in August. - The growth rate of national enterprise sales revenue in August accelerated by 0.9 percentage points compared to July. - The comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in August was 1.31, down 3% month - on - month and up 12.9% year - on - year. - China's automobile production and sales increased 13% and 16.4% year - on - year in August respectively. - After the "8·8" real estate policy in Beijing was implemented for a full month, the transaction volumes of new and second - hand houses increased [30][31][35][36][37][38][39][40][43][44][45][47][48].

Group 1: US Economic Policy - The US non-farm employment figure was revised down by 911,000, averaging a decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2000[1] - The August CPI in the US was 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations, while the core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, also meeting expectations[1] - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021[1] Group 2: Global Economic Trends - The European Central Bank held interest rates steady, indicating that inflationary pressures have been effectively contained[1] - Japan's second-quarter GDP was revised up to a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%[1] - Global stock markets and commodities showed positive performance, while US Treasury yields and the dollar index remained stable[1] Group 3: Market Predictions - The GDPNow model predicts a 3.1% annualized growth rate for the US GDP in the third quarter[1] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 11.0% to 6.6%, while the expectation for the policy rate at the end of 2025 slightly decreased from 3.55% to 3.54%[1] - The latest employment and inflation data support the Federal Reserve's potential resumption of rate cuts, boosting expectations for monetary easing[1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has room to cut rates by 25-50 basis points due to a comfortable inflation trajectory, but is not expected to do so in the current cycle given strong Q1 GDP numbers and recent consumption boosts from GST cuts [1][6] - CPI-based inflation rose to 2.07% in August from July's eight-year-low of 1.61%, entering the RBI's medium-term target of 2-6% [1][6] - Economists expect inflation to ease further due to GST rate cuts effective from September 22, with CPI for FY26 likely lower than the RBI's estimate of 3.1% [6] Group 2 - Retail inflation for September is currently tracking at approximately 1.75%, with October potentially going below 1% due to GST cuts and base effects [6] - Growth momentum is expected to slow in H2 FY26 as support from transient factors wanes and the impact of tariffs becomes more visible [6] - There are downside risks to inflation that may leave scope for another repo rate cut in the October-December period, although this was priced out by the market after a strong GDP print [6]

Market Overview - The UK market is experiencing positive momentum, with the benchmark FTSE 100 up 33.97 points or 0.36% at 9,331.55 [1] - Gains in the mining sector are attributed to higher metal prices, contributing to the overall market performance [1] Sector Performance - The mining sector shows solid gains, with companies like Beazley gaining about 3.2% and Glencore up nearly 3% [2] - Other companies such as Hiscox, Antofagasta, Fresnillo, and Anglo American Plc are also experiencing gains between 1.5% to 2.6% [2] Economic Data - The UK's real GDP showed no growth in July, following a 0.4% increase in June, with the services sector expanding by 0.1% and construction by 0.2% [3] - Industrial production fell by 0.9%, offsetting gains in other sectors [3] Yearly and Quarterly Trends - On a yearly basis, GDP increased by 1.4% in July, slightly below the economists' forecast of 1.5% [4] - In the three months leading to July, real GDP advanced by 0.2%, following a 0.3% rise in the previous three months [4] Trade Balance - The visible trade deficit remained relatively unchanged at GBP 23.68 billion in July compared to GBP 23.65 billion in June [4] - The surplus on services decreased to GBP 15.28 billion from GBP 15.42 billion, resulting in a total trade balance deficit of GBP 8.4 billion, up from GBP 8.23 billion the previous month [5]

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Group 1: Inflation and Market Expectations - The current CPI numbers indicate that inflation is rising but not at an alarming rate, suggesting a cautious outlook for the Fed's future actions [1][5] - The market is expected to anticipate more aggressive Fed activity, leading to a potential decrease in yields, particularly in the two-year and three-year segments, by approximately 20 basis points over the next month [2][3] - There is a debate regarding the sources of inflation, with some analysts suggesting it may be structural rather than solely tariff-based, which could impact the anticipated Fed cuts [4][5] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has shown signs of softening, with secondary indicators such as job openings and the quits rate declining significantly from late 2022 to mid-2024 [6][7] - The layoffs rate has remained steady, with a slight increase recently, indicating potential underlying weaknesses in the labor market that could concern Fed leaders [8] - The disconnect between labor market data and other economic indicators raises questions about the overall GDP pace and the Fed's response to these trends [6][8]