Market Outlook - The upcoming Santa Claus rally is anticipated, with historical data indicating a 77% probability of market gains during this period, which starts tomorrow [2][3][4] - The market is currently experiencing low volatility, as indicated by the VIX being at its year low, which is generally seen as a bullish sign [5][6][7] Economic Indicators - GDP growth for the second half of the year is projected to exceed 3%, which is a positive indicator for cyclical sectors such as financials, materials, and industrials [9][10][12] - The first half of the year saw a GDP increase of 2.2%, with significant contributions from AI and capital expenditures [10] Sector Performance - Cyclical sectors have underperformed over the last two years, but there is optimism that economic data will support a rally in these areas [8][9] - The market is favoring cyclical stocks over defensive ones as the global economy is expected to accelerate into 2026 [13] Commodity Trends - Commodities like gold, silver, and copper are showing strength, with gold and silver reaching new all-time highs, which historically benefits emerging markets [14][15] - Metals and mining sectors are expected to perform well, with silver and copper recently breaking out above previous trading levels [16]

STRATEGIST AT THE CARSON GROUP RYAN GOOD MORNING. GOOD TO SEE YOU. >> GOOD MORNING FRANK I FORGOT TO GET THE MEMO TO WEAR SOME GREEN TODAY.BUT LOOKING GOOD FRANK. THANKS. >> WELL, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.I'M TRYING TO BE IN THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT. SPEAKING OF THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT, I FOLLOW YOU ON SOCIAL MEDIA. RYAN, YOU WERE POSTING ABOUT THE FACT THAT WE DIDN'T GET A SANTA CLAUS RALLY THE LAST TWO YEARS, BUT WE'VE NEVER MISSED THREE IN A ROW.YOU'RE ALMOST SOUNDS LIKE YOU'RE ALMOST GUARANTEEING A SANTA RALLY THIS YEA ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the performance of various indicators shows different trends. For example, the PPI in November 2025 is 2.2%, with a 0.1% change in October and November. The GDP in 2025 is expected to increase, and the PCE is 3.1%. In 2026, GDP growth and PPI trends also have corresponding forecasts, with GDP expected to grow by 0.5 - 2.3%, and PPI expected to be between -1% - 0 [36][40] - The performance of different investment - related data such as 300, 50, 500, and 1000 also shows different percentage changes in different periods from 2005 - 2025 [7][11][16] 3. Summary by Directory Section 1: 2025 - **1.1**: The data of 300 in 2005 was 300, with a 60% change. In 2007, it was still 300. From 2008 - 2020, it had a 25% - 40% change, and in 2020, it had a 10% - 20% change. In 2025, there is also a certain change range [7] - **1.2**: The data of 300 is involved, and in 2025, the combined data of 300, 50, 500, and 1000 shows different percentage distributions [27] - **1.3**: It involves data from 1 - 3, related to Deepseek AI, and there is a 0.03% - 2.38% change, with 17% in a certain situation [34] - **1.4**: It involves data from 4 - 6, with a value of 5 in a certain situation [34] - **1.5**: It involves data from 7 - 8, with values of 7, 8, 9, and a 0.03% - 2.38% change, 17% in a certain situation [34] - **1.6**: It involves data from 9 - 12, related to AI, and the end - of - year data is for 2025 [34] - **1.7**: The data of 1000 is involved, with a 25% change in a certain situation [21] - **1.8**: The data of 1000 is involved, with a 25% change in a certain situation [21] - **1.10**: The data of 1000 is involved [32] Section 2: 2026 - **2.1**: In 2025, the interest rate increased by 75BP to 3.50% - 3.75% in December, and the GDP in 2026 is expected to grow by 0.5 - 2.3%. The PCE in 2025 is 3.1%, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.6% - 2.5%, reaching 2% in 2028. The FED may adjust the interest rate, with possible adjustments of 25bp, 50bp, or 75 - 100bp [36] - **2.2**: PPI in 2026 is involved. In 2023, PPI was - 2.5%, and in November 2025, it was 2.2%, with a 0.1% change in October and November [40] - **2.3**: It is related to the PPI situation from 2012 - 2015 and 2016, and the PPI in 2026 is expected to be between - 1% - 0 [43][46] - **2.6**: In 2025, the PE - TTM of 300 and 50 is involved [50] - **2.7**: No specific content provided - **2.8**: No specific content provided - **2.9**: No specific content provided Section 3 - **3.1**: It involves IC, IM, IF, and IH [59] - **3.2**: It involves IM and IF, with a 5% change in a 1 - 3 situation [59] - **3.3**: It involves MO, and the end - of - year data is for 2025 [59]

Market Outlook - Wells Fargo Investment Institute expects modest growth with moderate to moderating inflation, a good setup for risk assets in 2026 [3] - The Institute has a year-end 2026 target of 7500 for the S&P 500, considering it a doable number given the expected economic environment [7] - The Institute anticipates the rest of the world, including the US, will perform better next year relative to this year [13] Investment Strategy - The Institute took advantage of the pullback in early April and would like to see another one [4] - The Institute previously overweight infoch and communication services but went neutral on communication services and technology [4][5] - The Institute favors financials as its most favored sector, anticipating financing, M&A, deregulation, and a better economy [6] - The Institute likes industrials and utilities, viewing them as beneficiaries of the AI trade due to the need for data center construction and electrical grid upgrades [5][6] - The Institute is neutral on developed international and emerging markets, viewing emerging markets as a potentially cheaper way to play technology and AI [8][9] - The Institute prefers sticking with larger cap midcaps and US over international, but is looking for opportunities to increase international exposure [9][10]

Sign in to access your portfolio Sign in ...

Group 1 - The GDP gap between China and the US has widened from $6.4 trillion in 2023 to approximately $10.8 trillion, with the US aiming for $29.5 trillion and China at $18.7 trillion [1][3] - The apparent GDP difference is attributed to currency exchange rates rather than actual production, as China's real production activities are growing at a rate of 4.8%, while the US is at 2.0% [5][7] - The US economy is heavily indebted, with a national debt of $37.8 trillion, leading to over $1 trillion spent annually just on interest payments, which exceeds their military spending [8][11] Group 2 - China's GDP of $18.7 trillion is based on tangible production, with significant outputs in various sectors, contrasting with the US's inflated figures due to financial services and debt [13][19] - Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) indicates that by 2025, China's economy could reach $40.72 trillion, surpassing the US's $30.51 trillion, highlighting the efficiency of resource utilization in China [15][17] - China's agricultural production exceeds that of the US by approximately 10% for total grain output and 19 times for vegetable production, indicating a strong foundational economy [21][22] Group 3 - The structural differences between the US's "virtual" economy and China's "real" economy may not be apparent during stable times but could become critical during global supply chain disruptions or geopolitical tensions [24][26] - The US is attempting to bring back manufacturing and is aware of its economic vulnerabilities, while China has a robust global trade network that enhances its resilience [27][29] - China's advancements in sectors like new energy vehicles and high-end equipment manufacturing signify a shift from follower to leader in these industries, contributing to real productivity gains [31][32]

年关将近，又有网友询问南生：2025年的中国GDP能达到20万亿美元吗？ 最近两个月来，CPI走势略有好转，叠加之前的基数影响，不难推算：2025年全年的中国经济实际增长率为5%左右，名义增长率在3.95%至4%区间。 从而得知：我国2025年的GDP大约为140.3万亿元左右，按平均汇率换算成美元为19.64万亿，达不到20万亿美元。 南生给出的结论是达不到，无法完成了，并预测我国GDP将扩大至140.3万亿元人民币左右，按年度平均汇率折算成美元在19.64万亿左右。 理由如下： 截止到2025年12月19日，我国人民币与美元的平均汇率为7.1463，也就是平均接近7.15元人民币才能兑换1美元。 后面只有8个工作日了，不会对年度平均汇率产生过大的影响，我们按当前走势推算：人民币在2025年与美元的日均中间价平均汇率大约为7.1433。 再看各季度的GDP走势：第一季度，我国名义GDP为318758亿元人民币，与上年同期的304761.8亿元相比，名义增长4.6%，实际上涨5.4%，通缩依然存在。 第二季度，我国GDP按现价计算为341777.8亿元，上年同期为328837.6亿元，名义增长率接近4%，实际 ...

其实，单纯以美元汇率换算的GDP衡量国力，就像只看包装不看内核，忽略了一个关键指标，恰恰是它，能让所谓的"差距"瞬间反转。这个核心指标是什 么？它又如何改写我们对中美真实国力的认知？ 要读懂中美GDP差距的本质，首先要搞清楚一个关键前提：汇率换算的GDP，受货币波动影响极大，不能直接等同于真实国力。 从经济增速来看，美国年均增速约2%，中国则保持在4%左右，理论上中国应持续缩小与美国的差距，但为何实际数据反而反向扩大？ 今天来给大家聊一下中美GDP之间的差距。有一组数据引发广泛讨论：中美GDP差距从2023年的9.4万亿美元，扩大到如今的11万亿美元。 按汇率换算，中国GDP约18万亿美元，美国则在28-29万亿美元区间，表面看两国差距正在拉大。 其实原因并非中国国力衰退，而是人民币汇率波动与经济结构调整的阶段性影响。近年来，中国正处于经济转型期，部分传统产业投资出现阶段性调整，消 费市场也面临短期承压。 这是否意味着中国国力增长放缓，甚至未来会被美国进一步拉开距离？不少人据此产生焦虑，但事实真的如此吗？ 与此同时，中国出口贸易始终保持强劲势头，积累了大量外汇储备，但国内投资信心的恢复需要时间，这一过程中人民 ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 is expected to experience growth in the upcoming year due to a combination of slowing inflation, a more dovish Federal Reserve chair, and continued positive U.S. GDP growth, despite a decline in enthusiasm surrounding AI [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The equity market serves as a powerful mechanism for wealth creation or destruction over the long term through daily price fluctuations [1] - The current market conditions are favorable for growth, driven by macroeconomic factors [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - Pacifica Yield aims to focus on long-term wealth creation by targeting undervalued high-growth companies, high-dividend stocks, REITs, and green energy firms [1]

Let's bring in Greg Do. That's a good idea. >> He thinks this report wasn't just noisy and full of gaps, but that it shows a downwardly biased view of inflation.Greg, am I saying that correctly. What do you see here that jumps out to you. >> Yeah, that's absolutely right, Kelly.And I think Steve put it well. Uh, it was full of gaps for sure. It was very noisy.It was messy, but there was a downward bias. And this downward bias to clarify what Steve was mentioning is due to the BLS methodology when it comes t ...