Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [3][51]. Core Insights - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. The growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][10]. - The online retail sales of physical goods grew by 7.1% year-on-year in August, continuing to outpace the overall retail market. Online sales accounted for 25.0% of total retail sales [4][5]. - The performance of essential goods such as grain, oil, and daily necessities showed a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and 7.7%, respectively, which is faster than the overall retail market [4][23]. - The growth in the e-commerce sector remains robust, with a focus on high-quality, low-valuation leading companies in the internet sector [4][10]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - Total retail sales in August 2025 were 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4][10]. - The retail sales of goods reached 35,172 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% year-on-year, while dining revenue was 4,496 billion yuan, up by 2.1% [4][10]. - Urban retail sales were 34,387 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while rural retail sales were 5,281 billion yuan, growing by 4.6% [4][7]. E-commerce Growth - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 7.1% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate faster than the overall retail market [4][5]. - Categories such as food, clothing, and daily necessities saw online retail sales growth of 15.0%, 2.4%, and 5.7%, respectively [4][18]. Category Performance - Essential categories like grain and oil, and daily necessities showed strong growth, while discretionary categories like home appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [4][34]. - Jewelry retail sales grew by 16.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in discretionary spending [4][29].

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for August 2025 indicates a slowdown in industrial production, a decline in fixed asset investment, and weaker-than-expected retail sales growth, reflecting the impact of "anti-involution" policies on the actual economy [4][5][6][7]. Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year in August, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from July, marking two consecutive months of declining growth [4][5]. - Month-on-month, the industrial added value increased by 0.37% in August, lower than the growth rates in the same months of 2023 and 2024 [5]. Fixed Asset Investment - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to decline, with August showing a significant drop in infrastructure investment [6]. - Real estate investment remains weak, while manufacturing and infrastructure investments have also retreated from their high levels earlier in the year, with negative year-on-year growth for two consecutive months [6]. Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year in August, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.17%, indicating a slight recovery but still below seasonal expectations [7]. - The month-on-month growth rate in August was lower than the corresponding rates in 2023 and 2024, suggesting a weaker consumer spending environment [7]. Bond Market Outlook - In the bond market, there has been a noticeable divergence in government bond yields since August, with short-term yields remaining stable while long-term yields have increased significantly [8]. - The current liquidity is relatively ample, and the bond market is expected to perform well, with the 10-year government bond yield estimated to stabilize around 1.7% [8][9]. - Convertible bonds have not outperformed their underlying stocks since August 25, and while they remain a relatively high-quality asset, their current valuation levels are elevated, necessitating a more strategic approach [9].

Economic Growth - The main economic indicators in Gansu Province have shown steady growth in the first seven months of the year, with overall economic operation remaining stable [1][2] - The industrial production has increased significantly, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size growing by 9.5% year-on-year [1] Industrial Performance - The mining industry saw a value increase of 4.1%, while the manufacturing sector grew by 12.2%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 10.2% [1] - Out of 37 major industry categories, 25 reported growth in production activities [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the province grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with a notable increase of 4.4% when excluding real estate development investments [1] - Infrastructure investment rose by 7.4%, and manufacturing investment increased by 10.0%, while real estate development investment declined by 14.2% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2500.8 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [2] - The "old for new" policy has positively impacted retail sales in categories such as home appliances (54.3% growth), communication equipment (37.0% growth), and furniture (20.8% growth) [2] Foreign Trade - The total import and export value reached 394.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [2] - Exports grew by 33.2% to 95.5 billion yuan, while imports increased by 21.9% to 299.1 billion yuan [2] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative accounted for 74.4% of total trade, with a growth of 21.0% [2] Fiscal and Financial Stability - The general public budget revenue was 658.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, while expenditures increased by 5.3% to 2848.6 billion yuan [2] - By the end of July, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 30383.8 billion yuan, growing by 8.1%, and the loan balance was 29981.5 billion yuan, up by 4.3% [2]

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in Anhui Province is stable in the first seven months of the year [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,393.21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] - In July, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year [1] Retail Sector Performance - Retail sales of limited enterprises grew by 5.5%, with significant growth in cultural office supplies (53.7%), communication equipment (52.2%), and household appliances (21.2%) [1] - The online retail sales of limited wholesale and retail enterprises increased by 22.1% [1] Foreign Trade - The total import and export volume reached 543.41 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [1] - Exports amounted to 364.73 billion yuan, growing by 13.8%, while imports reached 178.68 billion yuan, increasing by 14.8% [1] - Trade with the EU grew by 17.3%, and trade with ASEAN increased by 35.7% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.7% in the first seven months [2] - Investment in the primary industry grew by 5.5%, while the secondary and tertiary industries saw declines of 0.3% and 6.5%, respectively [2] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.8%, with notable growth in railway (14.4%) and road transport (8.1%) [2] High-Tech and Green Energy Investment - High-tech service industry investment surged by 25.3%, with information services growing by 78.2% and R&D services by 85.7% [2] - Investment in green energy saw significant increases, with hydropower and solar energy investments growing by 113.8% and 84.6%, respectively [2]

Group 1: Online Retail Performance - In July, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.6 percentage points compared to June [1] - From January to July, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 707.9 billion yuan, growing by 6.3%, which is 0.3 percentage points faster than the first half of the year [1] - The proportion of online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 24.9% of total retail sales, remaining stable compared to the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Offline Retail Trends - In July, offline retail sales grew by 2.4% year-on-year, a decline of 3.2 percentage points from June [3] - From January to July, offline retail sales accumulated a growth of 4.4%, which is 0.4 percentage points slower than the first half of the year [3] - Retail sales in convenience stores, supermarkets, department stores, specialty stores, and brand stores grew by 7.0%, 5.2%, 1.1%, 5.8%, and 1.9% respectively from January to July [3] Group 3: Overall Retail Market - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, although the growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points from June [5] - The growth rate in July was still higher than the average growth rate for the same period over the past three years by 1.1 percentage points [5] Group 4: Urban and Rural Consumption - In July, urban retail sales amounted to 33.62 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% year-on-year, with a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from June [7] - Rural retail sales reached 5.16 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.9%, down by 0.6 percentage points from June [7] - From January to July, urban retail sales grew by 4.8%, while rural retail sales increased by 4.7%, both showing a slight decline compared to the first half of the year [7] Group 5: Retail Sales by Category - In July, total retail sales of goods were 34.276 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, down by 1.3 percentage points from June [9] - Retail sales of limited above units reached 13.905 billion yuan, growing by 3.1%, with a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from June [9] - From January to July, retail sales of goods totaled 252.254 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points from the first half of the year [9] Group 6: Growth in Specific Categories - The "trade-in" policy has positively impacted sales, with retail sales of home appliances, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment growing by 28.7%, 13.8%, 20.6%, and 14.9% respectively in July [11] - Sales of basic living goods also saw an increase, with food and daily necessities growing by 6.9% and 8.2% respectively [11] Group 7: Service Sector Growth - From January to July, service retail sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.3 percentage points [12] - The growth was driven by increased demand in cultural, sports, and tourism sectors during the summer travel season [12] Group 8: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In July, the CPI remained flat year-on-year, with a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to falling food prices [14] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, marking an expansion in growth for three consecutive months [14] Group 9: Restaurant Sector Performance - In July, restaurant revenue reached 450.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points from June [15] - From January to July, restaurant revenue totaled 31.984 billion yuan, growing by 3.8%, which is a decline of 0.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4][45] Core Viewpoints - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with furniture and home appliances showing rapid growth [4][6] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan in July, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%. Excluding automobiles, the total was 34,931 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% [5][6] - Urban and rural retail sales in July were 33,620 billion yuan and 5,160 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.6% and 3.9% [5][6] Summary by Category Overall Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July were 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Excluding automobiles, the total was 34,931 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.3% [5][6] Essential Consumption - Essential consumption showed steady growth, with year-on-year retail sales for staple food and oil increasing by 8.6%, beverages by 2.7%, tobacco and alcohol by 2.7%, and daily necessities by 8.2% [17][23] Optional Consumption - In optional consumption, gold and silver jewelry and communication equipment saw rapid growth, with year-on-year retail sales for clothing and textiles increasing by 1.8%, cosmetics by 4.5%, gold and silver jewelry by 8.2%, and communication equipment by 14.9% [21][30] Other Consumer Categories - In other consumer categories, retail sales for home appliances and furniture showed significant growth, with furniture retail sales increasing by 20.6% and home appliances by 28.7%. However, building materials saw a decline of 0.5%, and petroleum products decreased by 8.3% [31][34]

Economic Overview - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, marking a new low for the year, and down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[18] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, continuing a decline for four consecutive months[24] Industrial Production - The growth rate of industrial added value for the first seven months was 6.3% year-on-year[8] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth rates, with increases of 9.3% and 8.4% respectively in July[8] - Export delivery value growth slowed to 0.8% in July, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] Consumer Market - The retail sales of goods in July grew by 4.0%, while catering services increased by only 1.1%[18] - The "old-for-new" policy pause in some regions led to a significant drop in related goods sales growth[18] - Sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment grew by 28.7%, down from 32.4% in the previous month[18] Fixed Asset Investment - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, a slowdown of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[24] - Infrastructure investment growth was 7.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[26] - Private investment growth fell to -6.3% in July, indicating a significant decline in private sector confidence[26] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year from January to July, with the decline widening by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[33] - New housing construction area fell by 19.4%, while the sales area of new commercial housing dropped by 4.0%[34] - The price index for new residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month in July[34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July, China's economic performance was below expectations, with exports being the highlight, but the export growth rate is likely to decline in the future. To maintain rapid economic growth in the second half of the year, domestic demand needs to continue to play a role [5][12][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.7% and the 2.8% in January - June. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 7.3% year - on - year, down from 8.9% in January - June and 9.2% in 2024. Narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2% year - on - year, down from 4.6% in January - June and 4.4% in 2024. Manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 7.2% and the 7.5% in January - June. Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 11.5% decline and the 11.2% decline in January - June [2][6]. - In July, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, compared with a 5.1% increase in the previous month. Narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 5.1% year - on - year, compared with a 2.0% increase in the previous month [6]. Real Estate - From January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.0% year - on - year, down from 3.5% in January - June and 12.9% in 2024. Since June, the decline rate of the national new - house sales area has accelerated. In July, the daily average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 19% year - on - year [3][8]. - In July, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In second - and third - tier cities, the sales price of second - hand residential properties decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [3][8]. - In July, the funds available to real estate development enterprises decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, with the decline rate expanding from 9.1% in June. The new construction area decreased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 29.5% year - on - year, with the decline rates expanding from June [3][9]. Industrial Added Value - In July, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than the market expectation of 5.8% and the 6.8% in June. High - tech manufacturing maintained relatively fast growth, with a 9.3% year - on - year increase in July [10]. Foreign Trade - In July, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, higher than the expected 5.8% and the 5.9% in the previous month. Imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 0.3% and the 1.1% in the previous month. The trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars [11]. - In July, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6% year - on - year, to the EU by 9.2% year - on - year, to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year, to South Korea increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and to Japan increased by 2.5% year - on - year. Exports to non - top five export countries and regions increased by 13.5% year - on - year, faster than the overall export growth rate [11]. - Considering the front - loading of exports in the first seven months and the relatively high base of export volume in the fourth quarter of last year, China's export growth rate is likely to decline in the future [12]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, lower than the market expectation of 4.9% and the 4.8% in June. The growth rates of most categories related to the trade - in policy declined compared with June [15]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 0.14% month - on - month in July, compared with a 0.26% decline in June after adjustment [15]. Service Industry and Unemployment Rate - In July, the national service industry production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, lower than the 6.0% in June [19]. - In July, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The volatility of aluminum has dropped to a historical low, there are market disagreements on alumina, and cast aluminum alloy is fluctuating within a narrow range [1] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,750, with a night - session closing price of 20,665. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,622. Trading volume and open interest showed various changes compared to previous periods [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 3,211, with a night - session closing price of 3,170. Trading volume and open interest also had different changes over time [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,135, with a night - session closing price of 20,075. Trading volume and open interest changed as well [1] Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 54.90 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 46.95 million tons. There were also changes in prices such as the pre - baked anode market price and the aluminum ingot scrap price difference [1] - **Alumina**: The arrival price of alumina at Lianyungang was 400 US dollars/ton (in US dollars) and 3,425 yuan/ton (in RMB). The profitability of alumina enterprises in Shanxi also changed [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of Baotai ADC12 was 19,700, and the total inventory of three regions was 31,154 [1] Macroeconomic Information - In China, in June, the newly added social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, the newly added RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 scissors gap narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to May [2] - In June, China's social retail sales year - on - year growth rate slowed to 4.8%, and the growth rate of catering revenue also slowed. The retail sales of some categories such as household appliances and audio - visual equipment, cultural office supplies, and communication equipment increased but at a slower pace [2]

Group 1 - The total retail sales of consumer goods in the province reached 217.68 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [1] - The "old for new" consumption program achieved sales of 15.68 billion yuan, while online retail sales amounted to 27.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [1][2] - A total of 1.76 million promotional events were held to boost consumption, including themed activities such as "Fragrant Gansu" and "Summer Joy" [2] Group 2 - The province is actively promoting the "old for new" consumption initiative and has optimized the subsidy application system for this program, resulting in 1.693 million applications and 1.52 billion yuan in subsidies disbursed [2][3] - The province is advancing the construction of commercial systems in ten counties and has designated Lanzhou as a pilot city for modern commercial circulation [2] - The provincial commerce department plans to organize various themed consumption activities around key periods such as summer and the Mid-Autumn Festival to further stimulate consumer spending [2][3]