9 月非农数据点评 迟来的指引，摇摆的降息 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 11 月 20 日，美国劳工部（BLS）补发 9 月非农就业报告。9 月新增非农就业人数 11.9 万，远高 于预期的 5.0 万，失业率小幅上行至 4.4%。 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 评论： 图1：9 月非农数据总览 | | | | | 2025年9月 非农数据总览表 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Economic Performance - In October, the industrial production growth rate decreased to 4.9%, down from 6.5% in September[11] - Fixed asset investment from January to October fell by 1.7%, with private investment down by 4.5%[11][18] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 14.7% year-on-year, worsening by 0.8 percentage points[19] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, but the growth rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points[18][26] - Infrastructure investment turned negative with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%[18][26] - Excluding real estate, project investment increased by 1.7% year-on-year[18][26] Consumer Behavior - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous month[11][21] - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 4.0%, indicating a rebound in other consumer sectors[21][25] - Jewelry consumption saw significant growth, while automobile sales turned negative[21][25] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, indicating a foundation for achieving annual targets[5][29] - New policy measures, including 500 billion yuan in financial tools, aim to stabilize fixed investment and stimulate consumption[5][29] - Continued focus on releasing domestic demand potential is essential for the fourth quarter[5][29] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[6][30]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to continue lowering interest rates due to weak employment data, with a potential third consecutive rate cut in December being discussed [1][2] - The ISM services PMI rose to 52.4 in October, indicating economic expansion and potentially alleviating pressure on the Fed to cut rates further [2] - The manufacturing PMI, however, declined to 48.7 in October, suggesting ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, which may counterbalance the positive signals from the services sector [3] Group 2 - The services sector, which is the largest part of the U.S. economy, showed resilience with improvements in business activity and new orders, potentially allowing the Fed more time to assess the economic situation [2] - Despite the positive services data, concerns remain regarding the manufacturing sector's performance, with several industries experiencing contraction [3] - The Fed's balancing act between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment continues to create uncertainty regarding future monetary policy decisions [1]

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI rose to 52.4 in October, up from 50 in September, indicating economic expansion and surpassing market expectations of 50.8[2] - The services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.2%[2] - The manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.7 in October from 49.1 in September, below the expected 49.5, indicating contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - ADP private sector employment increased by 42,000 in October, recovering from a loss of 29,000 in September, suggesting a slowdown in job losses[1] - The price index for services rose to 70, the highest since 2022, indicating persistent inflation pressures in the services sector[2] - Core inflation is beginning to stabilize due to tariff transmission and reduced labor supply[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, with a potential pause in December, targeting a year-end federal funds rate around 3.8% (target range 3.75%-4%) [1] - Further rate cuts may occur next year, with a target federal funds rate of 3.25%-3.5% by year-end as economic growth stabilizes and inflation recedes[1]

Market Overview - In October, the investment agreements between Japan, South Korea, and the United States were finalized, leading to significant gains in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets, which rose by 19.1% and 12.2% respectively[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a notable decline of 8.53% during the same period[3] Global Asset Flows - Global money market funds saw an inflow of approximately $1,290 billion in October, a decrease from $1,550 billion in September[19] - The U.S. equity market attracted $595.1 billion, while China and emerging markets received inflows of $180.6 billion and $241.6 billion respectively[19] China Market Dynamics - In October, China's equity market attracted $180.62 billion, accounting for 74.76% of the total inflow into emerging markets[19] - The inflow into China's fixed income market was $26.17 billion, representing 32.09% of the total emerging market inflow[19] Country Allocation Trends - Global funds' allocation to the Chinese stock market has rebounded to the historical 40th percentile, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from September[19] - The allocation to the U.S. stock market was 61.6%, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[19] Risk Considerations - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not accurately represent long-term trends, and there are risks associated with potential economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[3]

Economic Performance - In September, industrial production increased significantly with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[12] - The GDP for the third quarter was 4.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter[4] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to September was 371,535 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.5%[12] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 4.0%, but the growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points, contributing 1.0 percentage points to total investment growth[19] - Infrastructure investment increased by 1.1%, down 0.9 percentage points, contributing 0.2 percentage points to total investment growth[19] - Real estate development investment from January to September was 67,706 billion yuan, down 13.9%, with the decline accelerating by 1 percentage point[20] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods in September totaled 41,971 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[22] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 3.2%[12] - The decline in consumption was influenced by a drop in dining consumption, indicating a broader slowdown in consumer spending[26] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that investment will stabilize and grow, supported by infrastructure projects and policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market[30] - The overall economic performance in the first three quarters suggests a solid foundation for achieving annual targets, with a GDP growth of 5.2%[30] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in the international financial landscape, and unexpected shifts in U.S.-China policies[31]

Core Insights - The Singapore government has made significant progress in greenhouse gas reduction and resource efficiency in the public sector, as highlighted in the 2024 fiscal year Green Public Service Plan report [1] Group 1: Emission Reduction Achievements - In the 2024 fiscal year, Singapore's public sector is projected to emit approximately 3.6 million tons of CO2 equivalent, a decrease of 1.9% from the previous fiscal year and 9.5% from the 2020 baseline [1] - Direct emissions have seen a notable reduction due to the retirement of old incineration facilities and optimization of the energy structure, while indirect emissions have slightly increased due to expanded public healthcare and infrastructure [1] Group 2: Energy and Resource Management - Electricity consumption in 2024 is expected to reach 5,623 GWh, reflecting a 2.0% increase from the previous year, but energy intensity per unit area continues to improve [1] - Water usage has decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, and waste disposal in the public sector has dropped to 210.1 million kilograms, a reduction of 2.2% from the previous year [1] Group 3: Future Goals and Strategies - Singapore aims to achieve net-zero emissions in the public sector by 2045, five years ahead of the national target of 2050, with specific goals to reduce energy and water consumption by 10% and waste disposal by 30% by 2030 [1] - The report outlines a systematic implementation path, focusing on upgrading green standards in the building sector and setting energy-saving targets for high-consumption facilities [2] Group 4: Financial and Policy Support - The "Future Energy Fund" has been established with a total investment of 10 billion SGD to support green infrastructure and low-carbon technology development [3] - Performance-based energy-saving contracts are being utilized to integrate private sector expertise and funding into public initiatives, alleviating immediate fiscal burdens [3] Group 5: Collaborative Efforts and Continuous Improvement - The report emphasizes the importance of data and performance evaluation as a continuous improvement process, advocating for cross-agency experience sharing and social participation in oversight [3] - The public sector's efforts demonstrate that emission reduction can align with economic growth through institutional innovation, technological upgrades, and financial empowerment [3]

Core Insights - The Bank of Korea reported a public sector budget deficit of 48.9 trillion KRW for the previous year, marking five consecutive years of deficits [1] - The primary reason for the deficit is the decline in corporate income tax revenue due to the sluggish semiconductor market, while total expenditures continue to rise due to increased health insurance and pension costs [1] Government Deficits - The central government deficit expanded to 76.5 trillion KRW compared to the previous year [1] - The local government deficit increased from 5.8 trillion KRW to 11 trillion KRW [1] - The social security fund achieved a record surplus of 50.1 trillion KRW due to increased insurance fees and contributions [1] Overall Financial Health - The overall deficit of the general government equates to approximately 375 million USD, representing -1.5% of GDP, which is the largest since 2020 but still better than the OECD and Eurozone averages [1] Public Enterprises - The deficit for non-financial public enterprises significantly decreased to 16.2 trillion KRW due to falling international raw material prices [1] - Financial public enterprises saw a reduction in surplus from 7.3 trillion KRW to 4.8 trillion KRW despite increases in both revenue and expenditure [1] - The Bank of Korea indicated that the deficits over the past two years are primarily influenced by reduced corporate tax revenue and should not be interpreted as a structural deficit [1]

Group 1 - The Guangdong Meteorological Bureau issued a warning on September 21, indicating that Typhoon "Haikui" will significantly impact Guangdong from September 23 to 25, urging preparations for disaster prevention [1] - Typhoon "Haikui" rapidly intensified after formation, becoming a super typhoon with wind speeds exceeding 60 meters per second, making it the strongest typhoon globally this year [1] - The typhoon's circulation diameter exceeds 1300 kilometers, larger than the entire Guangdong province, which is approximately 800 kilometers wide [1] Group 2 - Companies in Guangdong and Hainan are proactively preparing for the typhoon, particularly those in the port, shipping, and public service sectors, to protect assets and ensure safety during the storm [3] - Lingyi Zhizao has activated its defense mode, implementing various measures such as inspecting drainage systems, securing high-altitude items, and preparing emergency supplies [4][5] - A port and storage company in Guangdong has initiated emergency responses, focusing on personnel transfer, material reserves, and risk assessments to ensure safety [5] Group 3 - Public service companies, such as Southern Power Grid, have taken measures to clear obstacles from power lines and secure important facilities ahead of the typhoon [6] - Zhuhai Port has completed various preventive measures, including personnel transfers and risk assessments, and is prepared to respond to emergencies while ensuring safety [6] - Hainan Province, due to its geographical experience, has established mechanisms for typhoon response, including securing vessels and port facilities [7] Group 4 - The typhoon is expected to cause significant tidal surges and high waves, with warnings issued for various coastal areas in Guangdong and surrounding regions [8] - Guangzhou Metro announced a complete suspension of services across all lines starting September 24 due to the impending typhoon [8][9]

Market Overview - The market is transitioning to a phase of moderate upward movement, with the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis point interest rate cut and indicating the possibility of further cuts within the year [1] - Positive dialogues between China and the US regarding tariffs and TikTok have boosted market sentiment [1] - New issuance of equity funds has rebounded, and net inflows in margin financing continue, indicating high market activity [1] Fund Supply Analysis - New issuance of equity public funds has increased to 428.54 million shares, up 2.24% from the previous period [2] - The recent week's issuance scale reached 185.26 million shares, marking a high of 93.30% over the past three years [2] - Northbound capital's trading activity has slightly decreased, with its transaction volume accounting for 14.39% of total A-share trading, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous period [2] Margin Financing - The market's margin financing balance remains high at 23,270.98 million, with a margin short balance of 166.06 million, representing 2.49% of the total A-share market value [3] - The net inflow of margin financing has decreased to 883.82 million, down 54.75% from the previous period [3] - Net subscription for stock ETFs has also narrowed, with a net subscription of 59.36 million, significantly down from 122.32 million [3] Capital Demand - Equity financing has slightly decreased to 103.84 million, down 12% from the previous period [3] - The expected IPO scale for the next two weeks is 83.95 million, continuing to attract market attention [3] - The net reduction in industrial capital has decreased to 189.31 million, down from 200.72 million, with significant reductions in midstream manufacturing and downstream consumption sectors [3] Lock-up Release - The market value of lock-up releases has decreased to 1,224.14 million, down 24.49% from the previous period [4] - The upcoming two weeks are expected to see a release of 1,310.32 million, with the beauty and personal care sector facing the most significant release pressure [4] Southbound Capital - Southbound capital has shown a trend of continuous net inflows, with a net inflow of 859.13 million, an increase of 132.55% from the previous period [4] - This trend reflects optimism towards Hong Kong stocks and is closely related to communications between Chinese and US leaders and the anticipated Fed rate cuts [4]