证券研究报告宏观简评 2026年01月09日 证券分析师：张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn 12月CPI同比0.8%，较11月上涨0.1个百分点，为近34个月最高值，修复进程持续。核心CPI同比1.2%， 与上一期持平。从结构看，CPI的回升仍主要由食品烟酒项和其他用品及服务项拉动，尤其是其他用品及 服务项内涵的黄金价格上涨。不含金价的核心同比0.83%，较上一期小幅放缓，且从历史数据看也不在显 著扩张区间。 12月PPI同比-1.9%，较11月降幅收窄0.3个百分点，其中0.2个百分点新涨价因素贡献，说明PPI有实 质性好转。12月PPI环比0.2%，高于近几年季节性均值的-0.2%，价格上涨动能持续，但2026年1月，PPI 翘尾因素将陡降至-1.5个百分点，必然导致PPI同比数据显著走低。然而，只要内生的修复进程能够延续， 这种统计层面的基数效应就不会改变PPI企稳回升的实质趋势。到二季度，随着翘尾因素的收窄，PPI有 望转正。我们强调价格真正的改善，应来自居民收入预期改善与终端需求增长驱动的"需求扩张-企业补 库-价格上涨 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the macroeconomic outlook for China and Japan, focusing on fiscal revenue and monetary policy implications for 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][8][10]. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Fiscal Revenue Outlook for 2026**: - China's broad fiscal revenue is expected to stabilize and increase, driven by stable macro tax burdens, anti-involution policies, performance of special taxes, and enhanced tax collection measures [1][2][3][4]. - The overall fiscal revenue is projected to show uncertainty but trend towards stability [4]. 2. **Factors Influencing China's Fiscal Revenue**: - **Stable Macro Tax Burden**: Emphasis on maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden and regulating tax incentives to address the ongoing decline in macro tax levels [3]. - **Anti-Involution Policies**: These policies are anticipated to help improve prices in 2026, particularly benefiting domestic value-added tax revenues from manufacturing and wholesale sectors [3]. - **Performance of Special Taxes**: The shift towards domestic demand may reduce the drag from export tax refunds, while higher trading volumes in the securities market could enhance stamp duty contributions [3]. - **Strengthened Tax Collection Measures**: Increased coverage and regulation of personal income tax and compliance requirements for local government investment incentives are expected to improve fiscal stability [3]. 3. **Japan's Economic Stimulus and Fiscal Challenges**: - Japan's government has introduced a ¥21.3 trillion economic stimulus plan, primarily targeting inflation and social subsidies, which is expected to raise the fiscal deficit to 3.0% in 2026 [1][8]. - The effectiveness of Japan's fiscal expansion is anticipated to be weaker compared to the U.S. and Germany, with a projected GDP impact of only 0.5 percentage points [8][9]. 4. **Market Risks and Volatility**: - The combination of fiscal expansion and monetary tightening in Japan has raised risks of a reversal in yen carry trades, particularly as the Bank of Japan shifts towards a hawkish stance [8][10]. - Current market conditions show a balanced position in yen trading, with net long positions emerging, indicating a more stable environment compared to previous extremes [11][12]. 5. **U.S. Economic Data and Implications**: - Recent U.S. economic data, including a decline in ADP employment figures and stagnant PCE consumption growth, suggest a weakening labor market and potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [7]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The records highlight the importance of monitoring the interplay between U.S. and Japanese monetary policies, particularly during periods of contrasting stances, which could create volatility in the markets [10]. - The potential for Japan's fiscal measures to lead to increased inflationary pressures, despite initial subsidies aimed at reducing costs, is a critical consideration for future economic stability [9][12].

Employment Data Overview - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August[2] - The combined job additions for July and August were revised down by 33,000[5] Sector Performance - The private sector contributed 97,000 jobs, with notable gains in education and healthcare (59,000 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (47,000 jobs)[11] - Manufacturing, mining, and transportation sectors continued to decline, with losses of 6,000, 3,000, and 25,300 jobs respectively[12] - The construction sector showed improvement, adding 19,000 jobs, reversing previous declines[12] Wage and Inflation Insights - Average hourly earnings in the service sector increased by 3.8% year-on-year, while goods-producing sectors saw a 4.0% increase[24] - Overall wage growth lacks significant upward momentum, indicating limited inflationary pressure from wages[24] Federal Reserve Outlook - The September non-farm data is critical for the December FOMC meeting, influencing interest rate decisions[4] - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut in December, though internal divisions within the Fed complicate the decision[26] - The recent data, while positive, may not be sufficient to shift the Fed's stance decisively towards rate cuts[26]

Economic Performance - In October, the industrial production growth rate decreased to 4.9%, down from 6.5% in September[11] - Fixed asset investment from January to October fell by 1.7%, with private investment down by 4.5%[11][18] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 14.7% year-on-year, worsening by 0.8 percentage points[19] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, but the growth rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points[18][26] - Infrastructure investment turned negative with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%[18][26] - Excluding real estate, project investment increased by 1.7% year-on-year[18][26] Consumer Behavior - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous month[11][21] - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 4.0%, indicating a rebound in other consumer sectors[21][25] - Jewelry consumption saw significant growth, while automobile sales turned negative[21][25] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, indicating a foundation for achieving annual targets[5][29] - New policy measures, including 500 billion yuan in financial tools, aim to stabilize fixed investment and stimulate consumption[5][29] - Continued focus on releasing domestic demand potential is essential for the fourth quarter[5][29] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[6][30]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to continue lowering interest rates due to weak employment data, with a potential third consecutive rate cut in December being discussed [1][2] - The ISM services PMI rose to 52.4 in October, indicating economic expansion and potentially alleviating pressure on the Fed to cut rates further [2] - The manufacturing PMI, however, declined to 48.7 in October, suggesting ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, which may counterbalance the positive signals from the services sector [3] Group 2 - The services sector, which is the largest part of the U.S. economy, showed resilience with improvements in business activity and new orders, potentially allowing the Fed more time to assess the economic situation [2] - Despite the positive services data, concerns remain regarding the manufacturing sector's performance, with several industries experiencing contraction [3] - The Fed's balancing act between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment continues to create uncertainty regarding future monetary policy decisions [1]

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI rose to 52.4 in October, up from 50 in September, indicating economic expansion and surpassing market expectations of 50.8[2] - The services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.2%[2] - The manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.7 in October from 49.1 in September, below the expected 49.5, indicating contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - ADP private sector employment increased by 42,000 in October, recovering from a loss of 29,000 in September, suggesting a slowdown in job losses[1] - The price index for services rose to 70, the highest since 2022, indicating persistent inflation pressures in the services sector[2] - Core inflation is beginning to stabilize due to tariff transmission and reduced labor supply[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, with a potential pause in December, targeting a year-end federal funds rate around 3.8% (target range 3.75%-4%) [1] - Further rate cuts may occur next year, with a target federal funds rate of 3.25%-3.5% by year-end as economic growth stabilizes and inflation recedes[1]

Market Overview - In October, the investment agreements between Japan, South Korea, and the United States were finalized, leading to significant gains in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets, which rose by 19.1% and 12.2% respectively[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a notable decline of 8.53% during the same period[3] Global Asset Flows - Global money market funds saw an inflow of approximately $1,290 billion in October, a decrease from $1,550 billion in September[19] - The U.S. equity market attracted $595.1 billion, while China and emerging markets received inflows of $180.6 billion and $241.6 billion respectively[19] China Market Dynamics - In October, China's equity market attracted $180.62 billion, accounting for 74.76% of the total inflow into emerging markets[19] - The inflow into China's fixed income market was $26.17 billion, representing 32.09% of the total emerging market inflow[19] Country Allocation Trends - Global funds' allocation to the Chinese stock market has rebounded to the historical 40th percentile, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from September[19] - The allocation to the U.S. stock market was 61.6%, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[19] Risk Considerations - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not accurately represent long-term trends, and there are risks associated with potential economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[3]

Economic Performance - In September, industrial production increased significantly with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[12] - The GDP for the third quarter was 4.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter[4] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to September was 371,535 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.5%[12] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 4.0%, but the growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points, contributing 1.0 percentage points to total investment growth[19] - Infrastructure investment increased by 1.1%, down 0.9 percentage points, contributing 0.2 percentage points to total investment growth[19] - Real estate development investment from January to September was 67,706 billion yuan, down 13.9%, with the decline accelerating by 1 percentage point[20] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods in September totaled 41,971 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[22] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 3.2%[12] - The decline in consumption was influenced by a drop in dining consumption, indicating a broader slowdown in consumer spending[26] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that investment will stabilize and grow, supported by infrastructure projects and policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market[30] - The overall economic performance in the first three quarters suggests a solid foundation for achieving annual targets, with a GDP growth of 5.2%[30] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in the international financial landscape, and unexpected shifts in U.S.-China policies[31]

Core Insights - The Singapore government has made significant progress in greenhouse gas reduction and resource efficiency in the public sector, as highlighted in the 2024 fiscal year Green Public Service Plan report [1] Group 1: Emission Reduction Achievements - In the 2024 fiscal year, Singapore's public sector is projected to emit approximately 3.6 million tons of CO2 equivalent, a decrease of 1.9% from the previous fiscal year and 9.5% from the 2020 baseline [1] - Direct emissions have seen a notable reduction due to the retirement of old incineration facilities and optimization of the energy structure, while indirect emissions have slightly increased due to expanded public healthcare and infrastructure [1] Group 2: Energy and Resource Management - Electricity consumption in 2024 is expected to reach 5,623 GWh, reflecting a 2.0% increase from the previous year, but energy intensity per unit area continues to improve [1] - Water usage has decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, and waste disposal in the public sector has dropped to 210.1 million kilograms, a reduction of 2.2% from the previous year [1] Group 3: Future Goals and Strategies - Singapore aims to achieve net-zero emissions in the public sector by 2045, five years ahead of the national target of 2050, with specific goals to reduce energy and water consumption by 10% and waste disposal by 30% by 2030 [1] - The report outlines a systematic implementation path, focusing on upgrading green standards in the building sector and setting energy-saving targets for high-consumption facilities [2] Group 4: Financial and Policy Support - The "Future Energy Fund" has been established with a total investment of 10 billion SGD to support green infrastructure and low-carbon technology development [3] - Performance-based energy-saving contracts are being utilized to integrate private sector expertise and funding into public initiatives, alleviating immediate fiscal burdens [3] Group 5: Collaborative Efforts and Continuous Improvement - The report emphasizes the importance of data and performance evaluation as a continuous improvement process, advocating for cross-agency experience sharing and social participation in oversight [3] - The public sector's efforts demonstrate that emission reduction can align with economic growth through institutional innovation, technological upgrades, and financial empowerment [3]

Core Insights - The Bank of Korea reported a public sector budget deficit of 48.9 trillion KRW for the previous year, marking five consecutive years of deficits [1] - The primary reason for the deficit is the decline in corporate income tax revenue due to the sluggish semiconductor market, while total expenditures continue to rise due to increased health insurance and pension costs [1] Government Deficits - The central government deficit expanded to 76.5 trillion KRW compared to the previous year [1] - The local government deficit increased from 5.8 trillion KRW to 11 trillion KRW [1] - The social security fund achieved a record surplus of 50.1 trillion KRW due to increased insurance fees and contributions [1] Overall Financial Health - The overall deficit of the general government equates to approximately 375 million USD, representing -1.5% of GDP, which is the largest since 2020 but still better than the OECD and Eurozone averages [1] Public Enterprises - The deficit for non-financial public enterprises significantly decreased to 16.2 trillion KRW due to falling international raw material prices [1] - Financial public enterprises saw a reduction in surplus from 7.3 trillion KRW to 4.8 trillion KRW despite increases in both revenue and expenditure [1] - The Bank of Korea indicated that the deficits over the past two years are primarily influenced by reduced corporate tax revenue and should not be interpreted as a structural deficit [1]